Relying too much on statistics

by Fuhbawl on Nov 1, 2011 10:35 AM EDT

What is the deal with people in sports latching onto any statistic they can conjure up and then treating it as a decision making tool?

Examples:

No coach has ever won a Superbowl with one team and then come back and won it with another.
So what? How big of a sample size is there? Isn't it like 12? There is only one Superbowl ever year. Think about it.
QBs in the first round aren't always great. Tom Brady wasn't first round.
No shit? You mean you can get a good QB in the first round, or in the 4th? C'mon, this is really suprising to football fans?

I guess what I am getting at is, would some people seriously even consider things like this when choosing a coach or a quarterback? I certainly hope not. How about simply considering the person, their abilities, and how they would fit with the planned Superbowl-winning team of 2012? (That's right, Superbowl 2012!!)

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Comments

agree toa point,

but typically the best barometer for future success is based on what happened in the past.

"My cats breath smells like cat food" a wise man once said...
My love for THE MIAMI DOLPHINS is unconditional...period!
I will never "Suck for Luck" !
Win for pride, Win for us fans!

by Phinphinatic on Nov 1, 2011 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

Have to agree, SB coaches who retires and comes back will find out that the game,

players, and current systems have advanced. Its like leaving your job for a couple of years and going back to find out they have become more automated. 2 of the most successful coaches of this decade are Belichek and Tomlin. The past sb winners have been new faces not retreads(McCarthy,Peyton,Coughlin) Right now the Harbaughs are on the rise. A proven winner from the past lacks the fire of a person, who comes in and have to prove he and his players can win.

Damn the sheriff, Bring on MARSHALL LAW

by fin4three5yrs on Nov 1, 2011 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

+1

Still a believer in having a top tier TE.

by tuscanitunr x2 on Nov 1, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

You realize that Belichick was Cleveland's coach in the 91? That is before Cowher and Fisher.

Cowher is only considered a retread because he won in Pittsburgh. Because Belichick was fired in Cleveland, he’s never considered as a retreat coach. That’s crazy.

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

by Finhead83 on Nov 1, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

And how does everyone miss the fact that Shula took one team to the SB, lost (although nearly won) and then went

on to the Phins to be the coach with the most win in NFL history. Was he not a “retread” when he came to the Phins? I think each coach has to be looked at on an individual basis.

As to the QB’s that’s a different story. QB’s taken in the first round are the ones that for the most part have “first round grades”. thus meaning they are universally believed to be the ones most likely to succeed at the next level. For every success someone can site a failure but I am willing to bet that those percentages of success get lower and lower with each round following the first. Citing that the Brady’s of the world slip through the cracks does not override the facts or even the simple math. Bottom line is that your odds of finding a franchise QB or even a quality starter are best in the first round.

Please learn the difference between a fan post and a fan shot before posting.

by texascowpunk on Nov 2, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

And your point is???

1) Most super bowl winning coaches don’t repeat as super bowl winners on new teams because it is very hard to have the drive to rebuild from ground zero. However, it is proven that retread coaches rarely are as successful the 2nd time around whether they win or even get to the Super bowl.

2) With respect to your second comment, it is even more idiotic. Approximately 50% of starting QB’s in the NFL were drafted in the first round. After that there is no more than 10% Starting QB’s from rounds 2-7. Or to put it another way, the Davie Dumb-wits have used second round picks on AJ Feeley, John Beck, Pat White, Chad Henne, Donte Culpepper and haven’t been able to get an average QB from that bunch of Dart board monkey shots. To name a few QB’s. Would you prefer to have any of the above Dolphins second round picks OR Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben, Cam Newton or Michael Vick.etc who were all high first round picks

by DAVEBUCK on Nov 1, 2011 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

Try not to call someone an idiot when you actually agree with them...

Even if you don’t think you do. He’s not supporting those two comments.

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

by Finhead83 on Nov 1, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

His better bet would be to not call anyone on this blog an idiot or use any other form of personal attack.

Please learn the difference between a fan post and a fan shot before posting.

by texascowpunk on Nov 2, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually if you want to know the truth, lets look at your list shall we?

1. Matthew Stafford: First pick overall. Took three years to stay healthy behind the Lions weak offensive line. Having to extend plays may have shortened his carreer. No thanks.

2. Eli Manning: To his credit, he has a ring, and for that I am greatful because it kept the Pats from going undefeated. But to his demise, he is not the leader his brother is. Also note, he is destined to ride in his brothers shadow, which will always keep him under a microscope. Push.

3.Phillip Rivers: No thank you. With talent like a top five reciever, a future hall of fame RB, a Middle of the pack defense, and a longwithstanding offensive line. This guy has yet to win a Super Bowl. His scenario would be the same here, with the same results I am afraid. No thanks.

4. Aaron Rodgers: Truth is, I dont think he would be the same guy if he came to Miami come draft day. Why? Because he had time in Green Bay to hone his craft. Here, who would he have played behind? For all the jokes about Farve I can come up with, he was still a great QB when he was with the Packers. Push.

5. Big Ben: Sorry, even though he was aqquited, I do believe his scandal would have been differently handled if it happened in Miami. No offense, but even accused, I still cant hope for him to be on this team, or have any affiliation. I have sisters. No thanks.

7. Cam Newton: After the Tedd Ginn fiasco. Any player that requires you to draft his family as well as him scares me. Truth be told, him and his Daddy both would have ran all over this organization. No thanks.

6. Micheal Vick: sorry, an error I cant seem to fix has my numbers messed up. But the deal with Vick is, if we draft him, which guy are we getting. A: The guy with all the hype before jail? Or B: The guy with all the hype after. Either way, I am still glad we didnt pick up this guy. Not because of the dog thing, bit because we wouldnt have known what to do with him if we did. David Lee was our recievers coach. He should have stayed that way. He could not or would not have been able to handle Vicks skill set. And while I feel that Daboll could have done wonders with this guy, you have to remember he would have had a different offensive coordinator that was behind the times, even without Vick. Would have been a bad situation all around. No thanks.

While all are first round picks,most are mid to late round other than Vick, Newton, and Stafford. As well as Rivers. Either way, I get your point, bit you should have picked a better group to make your point.

by dolphinfan4lyfe on Nov 2, 2011 12:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I've always railed heavy stat reliance.

But;
1) Three years to develop a QB seems entirely plausible. It Detroit, anyway.
2) Agree about Eli
3) Agree abut Rivers
4) Rodgers is the real deal. He probably wouldn’t develop in Miami because he wouldn’t have stayed.
5) You use the groping charge and not torturing of dogs? I have a sister & a dog. Rothlisberger is the real deal.
7) I suck at math so I am inclined to accept your numeral order. The jury on Newton has yet to convene.
6) See 5.

I’ll say your running about 50% truth here.

I never got a prize for doing what was expected of me.

by Tunaflipper on Nov 2, 2011 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, forgot about 5.

Vick’s going to injure himself right out of football -just a matter of time.

I never got a prize for doing what was expected of me.

by Tunaflipper on Nov 2, 2011 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I think we are agreeing on point 2

Even though you said mean things about me that made my peepee sad, I’ll clarify for you. I was saying that just because you can pull stats that show not all 1st round QBs turn out to be great, it doesn’t mean that you don’t try. Trust me, if Miami doesn’t pick a 1st round QB this year I think there will be rivers of blood running from Opa Locka to Homestead.

But on point 1, are you saying that you would choose not to hire a coach who has previously won a Superbowl based solely on that statistic? That to me is frickin nutty. If the guy is still young, and during the interview he shows a ton of fire and ambition, outlines a great plan, I would not hold it against someone for having won in the past. That’s silly.

by Fuhbawl on Nov 2, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

LOL

The choices you make dictate the life you lead. -Greydanus. Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. - Robert Frost. Leading the fighter escort of SU-47s for the Lindley Bandwagon. Leader and Founder of the Ray Ray Armstrong for 2012 Bandwagon "pm striker king"- WZB.

by PotM on Nov 5, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions