The truth about drafting a QB


The Miami Dolphins continue to break my heart over and over again with their choices in the draft.  They continue to burn valuable draft picks on perennial losers on the NFL level.  Especially in the second round with their QB selections.  There is one fact about a QB and the NFL.  You need to take a QB in the first round, or get them in the 6th, or 7th round, that is the bottom line.  Let’s take a look at the starting QB's in the AFC and where they were drafted.

AFC East

Dolphins - Chad Henne - Second Round

Jets - Mark Sanchez - First Round

New England - Tom Brady - Sixth Round

Buffalo - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Seventh Round

AFC West

Kansas City - Matt Cassel- Seventh Round

Denver - Kyle Orton - Forth Round Now beat out by - Tim Tebow - First Round

Oakland - Jason Campbell - First Round Now - Carson Palmer - First Round

San Diego - Philip Rivers - First Round

AFC North

Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger - First Round

Ravens - Joe Flacco - First Round

Bengals - Andy Dalton - Second Round

Browns - Colt McCoy - Third Round

AFC South

Texans - Matt Schaub - Third Round 

Titans - Matt Hasselbeck - Sixth Round

Jaguars - Luke McCown - Fourth Round beat out by - Blain Gabbert - First Round

Colts - Payton Manning - First Round - Due to Injury - Curtis Painter - Sixth Round

In the AFC there are two second round picks starting for their teams.  The Dolphins are horrible, and the Bengals might have a starting QB for years to come in Dalton.  Most teams that are having success in the AFC have drafted their QB's in the first or sixth round, but let’s look at this list more in depth.  On this list we have two first ballot hall of famers in Payton Manning and Tom Brady.  One was drafted in the first round the other in the sixth round.  Payton Manning was able to live up to all the hype that was put on him as the number 1 pick overall, and when he retires will go down as a top 5 quarterback of all time.  In my opinion he is the greatest of all time, but I understand if people want to put him further down the list.  Tom Brady came into the league in the sixth round and a huge chip on his shoulder.  He too will go down as a top five quarterback, and built that legacy on wanting to prove to everyone that they were wrong by not drafting him in the first round. 

Let's go to the next tier of QB's in the AFC.  One is an all pro, and the other one is just below that level.  Phillip Rivers if he continues to pass the way he does will make it into the Hall of Fame, and Ben Roethlisberger might make it in the hall of fame if he wins another super bowl (I don't think he belongs there).  Both were drafted in the first round, and both are winners.  Hasselbeck has proven that he can win, and he was taken in the sixth round.  As a starting QB Matt Cassel has double digit victories two out of his three seasons (0 wins in the playoffs). I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is showing he can start in the league, and both were drafted in the seventh round. 

In the last 11 years 15 QB's have been drafted in the second round, and five are staring in the NFL.  Drew Brees is by far the best of this bunch.  He is trying to make a case to be in the hall of fame, and I think he will get there. In my mind Kevin Kolb and Henne are backups for life.  They are good enough for when you’re starting QB goes down for four games to go 2 - 2.  Tavaris Jackson shouldn't be starting or a number two on any roster, and the verdict is out on Andy Dalton. 

In the same time frame 30 QB's have been drafted in the first round and 19 are starting in the NFL.  One that was drafted in the first round and is not starting is Chad Pennington and he was a legit starter as well, and if not for his injuries would be the Dolphins starter. With these numbers you have a  26 % chance of your QB starting in the NFL if they are drafted in the second round, and a 66% chance of the QB starting if they are drafted in the first round.

Also in the last 11 years 20 QB's have been drafted in the 7th round and only two are starting, but a 7th round pick is worth nothing compaired to a second round pick. A 26% shot on a second round pick is a bad gamble. A 10% shot on a 7th round pick is a good bet. Miami needs to stop waisting their picks in the imprtant rounds. If you are looking for a QB you need to draft him in the first round.  A good way to get a solid back up is to choose a QB in the 7th round every year and it won’t hurt your team. Unlike taking a QB every year in the second round. Here are a few guys they have missed on by burning their second round picks on QB’s.

2007 we picked Beck three picks later Lamarr Woodley went to the steelers. Would have been a great fit for the Dolphins
Also same Draft Ryan Kalil starting Center for Carolina. So this year they wouldn’t have picked a center.
2008 Rather than Henne they could have picked Terrell Thomas. CB granted he is hurt this year, but he has been solid for the Giants. Jamal Charles or Tom Zibokowski.
2009 Rather than White they could have picked Max Unger Center, or LeSean McCoy RB

These are players that were valued around the pick the Dolphins chose their QB’s they waisted these picks.

This is for all the suck for Luck people out there, if the Dolphins get a pick in the top twenty this year they have a chance to upgrade the QB position.  Luck is obviously the best QB prospect, but Barkley, Griffin III, Nick Foles, and Landry if they all come out are legit starters in the NFL and should be drafted in the first round.  You could get one of those 5 with the 25th pick so stop being so narrow minded by only looking at Luck.  The team needs to play their best, and if that means they are the worst and the number 1 pick is ours then so be it, but we should never root for the team to lose.  Look at GB they played their best and landed Aaron Rogers that worked out great for them.  Same with the Pats when they landed Brady, and so on. 

Let's get behind the Dolphins, and see if they can salvage any type of a season.  If not they have a shot for Luck, but remember this what goes around comes around, and I would hate to see the Dolphins lose the coin toss to Indy because of Karma.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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