A slow shift in offensive philosophy for Dolphins?
by Matty I on Jul 27, 2010 5:00 AM EDT
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There was a blog post by beat writer Mike Berardino of the Sun-Sentinel on Monday that I feel isn't getting the attention it deserves. In it, second-year receiver Brian Hartline is quoted talking about what his goals are for 2010 on a personal level. Hartline boldly states that he wants to put up a 1,000 yard receiving season this year - despite the fact that there's a new star receiver in town named Brandon Marshall.
That's all well and good. I like a kid with some lofty goals because it makes you believe that he has been working his tail off to prepare for the upcoming season. The interesting quotes from Brian, though, come after he declares his personal goal:
"I want to throw the ball this year. I hope the coaches do too. That’s kind of my mindset...There should definitely be more of an emphasis on the passing game. That’s what attracted me the most about [the Marshall deal]. I love the Wildcat. I love what that brings. That’s part of our DNA. We’re always going to have that. But as a receiver we want the ball in the air."
Perhaps Hartline is just stating the obvious. After all, the Dolphins went out and gave up two second round picks to acquire a legitimate number one receiver and then handed that receiver a huge mega-deal contract extension. You don't do something like that if you don't plan on passing the football at least a little bit more than in the past.
But that's just it. What is so interesting about Hartline's comments is that we've already been witnessing this slow shift in offensive philosophy.
Don't believe me? That's fine. After all, the Dolphins were just one of five teams to run for over 2,200 yards as a team in 2009. Clearly they still believe in the ground game. Who can blame them? Despite the acquisition of Marshall, this team's most talented position remains the running back position.
Still, we saw a little bit of a shift last year in the offensive philosophy - especially later in the season once Chad Henne gained more experience.
Consider this: In 2008, the Dolphins passed the 54% of the time and averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game. In 2009, the Dolphins passed the ball just under 54% of the time but averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game.
But let's go one step further into last season. In the first eight games of 2009, the Dolphins literally had a balanced 50/50 run/pass ratio. But in the final eight games of '09, the Dolphins passed the ball 57% of the time and averaged just under 40 pass plays per game.
Of course we need to keep in mind game situations. Late in the '09 season, the Dolphins were playing from behind more often than not - resulting in more pass attempts. But you also cannot question the fact that this league has become a pass-first league. Four of the past six Super Bowl participants were pass-first teams while eight of the top ten passing teams in the league last year reached the post-season. On the flip side, five of the top ten rushing teams in 2009 failed to reach the post-season.
The bottom line? As long as Tony Sparano is head coach, there's no reason to think the Dolphins won't emphasize the power running game. But it's also clear to see that we should probably expect to see a more open offense. I'm a firm believer that Dan Henning and the offensive coaching staff will take to the air more often than they ever have since coming to Miami. They are going to let Chad Henne show what he can do. He has the weapons on the outside and versatile backs out of the backfield.
Very quietly the Dolphins had a top ten passing offense back in 2008. I'm looking for a similar performance in 2010 - just not quite as quietly. The game itself is has evolved. I believe this regime has recognized that - which is why Brandon Marshall was brought in.
Now Chad Henne just has to prove he's up to the task of leading an offense that will put more pressure on him.
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The passing game
I think Hartline’s quote is just about in line as far as every position player’s wants. It’s good he wants the ball in his hands and I do think the Dolphins may opt to pass a bit more. I don’t think we’ll see much of a change in philosophy though.
Not only was Miami playing from behind late last year, but they were without Ronnie Brown and the increase in their passes coincided with the time Ricky Williams started to become less effective. I think that played a major role in the increase in pass attempts and yards.
What I am expecting out of Miami’s offense is only a slight difference in philosophy. I think the ration of run/pass stays largely the same, but Miami’s passing attack will be more effective. I think they’ll put up better numbers, but that will be done with a similar amount of pass plays. The part that will probably change is the timing of Miami calling their passing plays. If the passing offense becomes more effective, I think we will see more passes on first down and on third and short situations because they will have more faith in the passing attack.
by Finhead83 on Jul 27, 2010 6:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
at least on 3rd and more than 1. Otherwise I see the Polite Monster doing his conversion thing.
Just think how stupid the average Jest fan is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! ( a parody of a George Carlin line)
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The Polite Monster is $ in the bank on 3rd/4th & 1
Just think how stupid the average Jest fan is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! ( a parody of a George Carlin line)
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call Webster & have "monster" changed to "lousaka"
amirite?
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lol that works for me
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Oh my....
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Sound like you three are going to have a ball.
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by texascowpunk on Jul 27, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
deep attack
here is how the offense will differ from last season: numerous time last year miami would run, run, run, till they hit the opositions 40. then the run would be stuffed and DC$ bangs a 35-40 yard field goal. this year i think miami has more TD’s from 30+ yards. i see R+R express running the first 40 yards, then Henne to B. Marsh/Hartline and crew for 6pts or to the 1 yard line, then Ronnie pounding it in for the touchdown. for some teams the run opens up the pass, for others the pass aids the run. in maimi’s case though, we are in a position to let either formation dictate the game. i like DC$ but i would love to see him hitting more extra points and less field goals.
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The only problem with your theory is we have no deep threat with which to exploit.
Maybe one will come out of TC, which we’re all hoping for. But even if one does, they’re not likely to get much playing time this year. At least not enough to have a viable deep threat on the field consistently.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Miami's deep passes
The majority of the big gains for Miami. Miami will still have a few deep passes because Hartline and Marshall can go deep. They just don’t specialized in it. The majority of the big gains out of the passing attack will come from yards after the catch. That is where Miami’s WRs are best built for.
I'd agree with the last two sentences.
But neither Hartline or Marshall have the speed for deep passes (40+ yards). Unless you’re talking about Henne having all day in the pocket to allow them to get downfield, but that’s unlikely to happen very often.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Speed
Not every team relies on speed for deep passes. A lot of players can get by with being successful on deep routes because of the routes they run. If you can sell a good route, you can also be a deep threat. Additionally, if you’re good at beating a CB off the scrimmage, that can also give you an advantage.
I’m not saying we’re going to see Marshall or Hartline act like DeSean Jackson and do a fly route down the sideline and have Henne bomb it in hopes the player can get under it. I think what we will see is Miami’s WR use their skills in action to sell one route and then go deep for a 30+ yarder. Will we see it as often as DeSean Jackson doing a fly route? No, but we will see it.
Also disgregard any confusing parts of my last comment. Sometimes my computer is so slow I can’t see the words I type and it makes it difficult when I use the backspace key…
I agree with 20-30 yd passes. They both have the speed for those intermediate routes.
But let’s not confuse those with being deep passes. A true deep threat can get downfield and create separation between him and the defender on a five step drop or play action or flea flicker.
I think what you’re more likely describing is what I would classify as a big play receiver. Doesn’t have blazing speed, but has the right moves to get the big gains. As opposed to the deep threat, who doesn’t have the best moves, but uses his speed to outrun the coverage.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Not necessarily
You’re talking about players who have the difference in speed between .1 and .3 second when running. Beneficial to a point, but there are more factors in it. If those were requirements, Hartline would never have been able to make a few deep receptions last year because by that theory Miami would never have time to wait for him to get downfield
Reggie Wayne is one example of a WR who doesn’t have blazing speed, but is great on deep passes. How does he do it without the speed of someone like DeSean Jackson? He does well to beat the CB off the line and does a great job of running routes. During Wayne’s combine, he only ran .06 seconds faster than Brian Hartline and 1.1 faster than Brandon Marshall. Sometimes, a WR that runs a 4.7 40 yard dash can sometimes be a better deep threat than a WR who runs a 4.4 40 yard dash.
You're missing the point I was making.
Hartline only caught 5 passes that traveled more than 20+ yards before he caught it. He caught one pass that traveled 40+ yards before he caught it, or I should say two Tennessee players failed to catch, bobbled and then he caught it. That pass was also a floater, allowing him to get downfield, and ended up being underthrown.
I’ve given you no examples of what I consider a deep threat, so I’m not sure who you’re comparing in terms of speed. But in general terms, my idea of a deep threat has sub 4.5 speed. While a big play receiver could be anywhere between 4.5 and 4.7, but usually have great hands and a big body (ie Larry Fitzgerald).
As for Reggie Wayne, the guy ran a 4.4 out of college, that’s pretty fast. It’s not the 4.32 of Desean Jackson, but still fast enough to be considered a deep threat. By the way, Reggie Wayne didn’t run the 40 yard dash at the combine: http://espn.go.com/melkiper/s/2001/0307/1136944.html
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Wayne and 40 yard times
Do you think Reggie Wayne still runs that at his age? Hartline was also at a 4.52 and Marshall was at a 4.57. That puts them extremely close in your categories for what a deep threat is. Then again, like I’ve said, there’s more to being a deep threat than pure speed.
Yes, you’re right on Wayne not running at the combine. The 4.4 was actually at the pro day I believe.
I do actually think Wayne still runs a sub 4.5 time
Which is what I stated a true deep threat does, runs a sub 4.5 time. 4.52 and 4.57 are actually slow times for WR nowadays. Yes, it puts them close. But if you’ve watched some track and field, you’d see just how far of separation .03 to .10 can get you.
Darrell Green, HOF CB, was still the league’s fastest player well into his 30’s, and played at the NFL level till he was 42. I’d be willing to bet even TO could still put up a 4.5 40 time. It’s not about age, it’s about conditioning. Yes, age eventually does it’s toll, but not at the age of 31.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Separation from .03 to .10
The distance between .03 and .10 could be good indeed… if you weren’t wearing equipment and had CBs hitting you at the line of scrimmage.
Again, I will always firmly believe that a WR that can shed .5 seconds at the line by beating the CB off the line or creating .5 seconds of distance from the CB by running/selling good routes is just as good as a WR that can outrun a CB in a 40 yard spring by .5 seconds.
I'm not saying one is better than the other.
I think you need both in the passing game. Marshall is our big play guy, but we have no established true deep threat. Now Hartline could turn out to be another big play guy which would be good, but it still allows teams to bring up the safeties in run support.
I will say however that the guy that can outrun the CB in a 40 yard sprint will score more than the guy who runs great routes. But the guy that runs great routes, will get your team more 1st downs.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Safeties playing in run support
Well, the entire big play WR got off the point I was trying to make.
As far as safeties coming up because the lack of a deep threat WR, I don’t believe in that. Safeties come up to box aren’t doing so because they’re opposition doesn’t have a deep threat, WR, but because they don’t fear the passing game. Just having capable WRs that are hard to cover without safety help is enough to prevent the team from bringing the safeties up. Teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Ravens, and 49ers didn’t have problems forcing the safeties to play at normal depth even though they lacked sub 4.5 40-yard dash WRs, This is also why that even with Ted Ginn playing at WR, teams still loaded the box against Miami.
I also don’t buy that people who can outrun a CB in a 40 yard spring will have more TDs than great route runners. For one, a guy that has to run a 40-yard sprint still may have a very hard time getting off the line of scrimmage against a physical CB, which was a big problem Ted Ginn had. Also, the CB can also use an advantage by playing a little further back as an advantage. Again, I will think a WR that can save those times by running the great routes and beating the CB off the line is just as effective.
by Finhead83 on Jul 27, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do you even know who the receivers are on the teams you listed?
Giants – Steve Smith – 4.40
Cardinals – Steve Breaston – 4.38
49ers – Michael Crabtree – has run a sub 4.5 40, but hasn’t been timed since high school
Ravens – Mark Clayton – 4.41
Bringing up the safeties allows them to not only help the running game, but also to help out in the intermediate passing game. It allows your CB’s to play underneath and the safeties over the top. But that only works if you don’t have a deep threat. Because with a true deep threat you have to keep the safeties back to prevent him from outrunning the coverage. With no speed in your receiving corp, safeties need less of a cushion to recover and keep pace on a deep pass.
Ted Ginn was horrible at getting off the line, so that negated his ability to be an effective deep threat. As for your argument the speedster might have trouble getting off the line, I could use the same argument with a guy that runs great routes. But given two equal players who can consistently get off the line and beat the jam. The guy with blazing speed will score more than the guy who runs great routes. Why? Because the guy with the blazing speed can take any pass all the way. The guy who runs great routes can’t.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Thats not really true.. have you seen marshall after he catches the ball?
He is a threat to end up with a long play everytime he catches the ball. Will he outrun the 2ndary? no.. but he is great at picking and weaving his way to 40+ yard receptions.
Henne is the QB of the Miami Dolphins.
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by MainePhinFan on Jul 27, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
He's great at picking up and weaving for 40+ yard receptions? Really?
You do realize in his 4 year career totaling 327 receptions, he only has 8 catches of 40+ yards.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
I have to agree on yards after the catch.
Marshall is a big dude; bigger and stronger than the CBs trying to tackle him. He is almost the same size as many of the safeties who will be after him. It isn’t so much that he will pick and weave though. Can he turn a 15 yard catch into a 30 yard catch by pushing people around? I think so. The guy is physical. I didn’t like the Ginn trade, but I do like that Marshall is the anti-Ginn. Screw the sidelines when you can stiff arm someone!
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Catching a deep ball isn't always about speed.
Seperation is more important (yes I know, speed helps with that… but it is not absolutely necessary). All deep passes are not fly routes. Also, if we have a guys who can outfight the corner/safety for the ball then we may not need as speed or much seperation (if you need a visual, just watch more B. Marsh highlights).
by christiandolfan on Jul 27, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
True, but without blazing speed.
Catching a deep ball (40+ yards through the air, not after catch) would require the QB to scramble or stay in the pocket for a long time.
Big play receivers and deep threats are not the same thing. Hartline has the potential to be a big play receiver, but lacks the speed to be a deep threat. Because a deep threat outruns his coverage and is more likely to score. A big play receiver makes his defenders miss, out jumps them to the ball, but isn’t likely to outrun their coverage.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
I know i'm coming into this discussion late, but it seems like you might be splitting hairs a little
in the post that started this discussion frosty just said he thought there would be more tds of 30+ yards, and more deep passing inside the 40 yard line. I don’t think it really matters how far the ball travels in the air (at least not as it pertains to Frosty’s original premise).
--the artist formerly known as Phillyfinfan--
by Brooklynfinfan on Jul 27, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It really is just a matter of semantics.
At least as it concerns to Frosty’s original comment. But to the others it’s more relevant as we’re debating more specifically what a deep threat is.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
No room for the Wildcat?
Not much need for the Wildcat if this all works, but Hartline is saying that it will always be there. Do you think it will just be used in desperation?
by Fish and Chips on Jul 27, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
The Wildcat will not be used in desperation, it'll be part of the game plan.
It causes defenses to spend time in preparing for it and allows more of our RB talent on the feild at the same time. If the other teams can’t stop it consistantly, why should we?
by christiandolfan on Jul 27, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with alot of what Fin says.
I believe you’ll see the same ratio of run to pass we’ve done in the past. Mainly because everything will equal out from the more experienced passing game and bigger running lanes. I think the biggest change we might see is red zone production. I think we’ll see bigger production from our receiving corp (TE’s included) in the red zone, and a decline by our RB’s.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
I mostly agree
but I think we should see more overall TDs as well—the ratio of rushing to receiving will improve, but I think our scoring offense as a whole will improve. The rushing tds may decline some, but I’d rather we become more balanced by increasing the total points we score, and having that increase come from the air, rather then simply having B Marsh syphon points from R and R.
--the artist formerly known as Phillyfinfan--
by Brooklynfinfan on Jul 27, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
First down passes
We wlll see lots more first down passes which will leave us with many more 2 and shorts. Look for the tight end and backs out of the backfield to make the biggest gains in the passing game.
BM will probably have an 80 catch 1000 yard year but its the running game and short to medium passes to the tight ends and Bess that will take off. Look for Bess to have a monster year maybe even more catches then BM.
yep... bess will be a monster in the slot
which leads me to think hartline will become the deep threat, with the attention needed to slow down bmarsh and bess.
by ricenbeans82 on Jul 27, 2010 10:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Patrick Turner will be the guy!!!!!
OK , I’m just kidding…… I kinda see our offense looking similar to Dan Henning’s Carolina Panthers the year they went on the Superbowl run with a power running game and Steve Smith and Mushin Mohammed on the outside .And yes , I do think Brian Hartline will be that good .
Speaking of Dan Henning
Let’s hope he does call more pass plays…his play calling is waaaay too conservative!
well, I would say his play calling has reflected our talent
He’s all about FTS—feed the studs. And our studs have been R and R, which has naturally led to more runs. That’s not necessarily being conservative so much as playing to our strengths.
Now, obviously, we have a new stud in town, and I think that if Henning is philosophically consistent—and I think he will be—then Marshall’s going to get fed. Which will lead to a higher pass/rush ratio. (not to mention if Henne and/or Hartline develops the way we all think they can)
--the artist formerly known as Phillyfinfan--
by Brooklynfinfan on Jul 27, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The play calling
Given how Miami’s offense was set up, I think he called good plays. Henne was in his first season starting and he had a very young WR corps. If Miami is built for a complex passing attack, why would he call a game like they were built for that? You have to give him credit for playing to Miami’s strengths.
I wanted him replaced.
Too many poor play calls and game management (although that could be attributed to Sparano). He would get aggressive when we needed to be conservative, and get conservative when we needed to be aggressive.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
i disagree
Poor playcalling and playing from behind led to mental mistakes.add to that,ginn dropping everything thrown his way and I’m henne played pretty good in his first year as a starter.
You don’t get 4 4th quarter comebacks from mismanaged playcalling
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Jul 27, 2010 3:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Having a great running game and a great passing game
sounds like fun to me
Staring down Mark Sanchez. Just look into the those brown beauties.
combined with a Mike Nolan defense
delicious
"IN PAT WE TRUST"
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I agree with that
I think hartline will get more open looks for the deep ball as the season starts. Maybe by game 5 or 6 you should see it taper off,as teams will gameplan more for it. Another option well see is on 4 or 5 reciever sets,with pruitt going deep.
I really hope he sticks,he’s the fastest reciever we have.
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Jul 27, 2010 3:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
what are some of the new wild cat wrinkles going to be?
how about direct snap to ronnie, who hands it to ricky who then hands it to b marsh, who then laterals it to henne, for a 60 yd bomb to hartline????
also can we dedicate a roast for an opposing player from the opposing team on a weekly basis. I think it could be quite funny, we have some witty people onboard
by ricenbeans82 on Jul 27, 2010 3:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Henne and Marshall need to be the best players on offense to succeed in '10
If we as fans look back on the ‘10 season and say Ronnie and Ricky are the best players on offense, the Phins will have a mediocre year. Scoring needs to go up. Big plays need to go up. A power running game isn’t going to make those go up.
I want to see the Phins throw 65% in the first half of games. Jump on the opponents early and then batter them with the run late to protect the lead. That’s what good offenses do.
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
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what i want is for hartline and pruitt
To watch b.marsh in pratice,and for marshall to come in and with penne,work with the recievers as a whole.
We basically got nolan carrol for tedd ginn,well see if that was worth it.
Also,I want sean smith to work across from brandon as well. Toughen him up,teach him how to stop playing scared.
Overall,I think the key is,can Brandon come in and be the leader we need him to be,without letting it get to his head.
That I think is the difference between moving into a pass happy dolphin era,and sticking with the old reliable run game
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Jul 27, 2010 5:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not really...
You can still have a very good offense without passing 65% of the time. Our OL and our system is still geared for running teams down until they’re tired. Also, if our defense remains a concern, the best way to alleviate that is to run the ball and eat up the clock. Even with Marshall in the folds, this is still a running team. Parcells and Sparano will not throw the ball 65% of the time… it’s just not what they do.
the reason i bring up the tedd ginn thing is
Well,speed kills,he may not have caught everything thrown his way,but,teams feared the speed he brought to every game
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Jul 27, 2010 5:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
u have a point BUT consider this
Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall is the Beauty and the Beast.
by Stats407 on Jul 27, 2010 11:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
u have a point BUT consider this
Marshall may not have blazing speed like Ginn.
If u seen games with Marshall, he get’s deep he allways find a soft spot in zone coverages. That avg’s 15-30 yds. Which Ginn couldn’t do. 2nd Marshall can turn screens into big plays. He’s so physical and athletic that he out jumps CBs with his 6’4 frame which gives him an advantage every down. Speed is overrated in the nfl. Moss is the exception Rice is the perfect example 4.5 sub par speed.
Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall is the Beauty and the Beast.
by Stats407 on Jul 27, 2010 11:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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by Davone_Is_BessT on Jul 28, 2010 12:24 AM EDT reply actions
... and so he is unleashed...
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Timely article for me because
I’ve been looking at our Coaching Trees and their core philosophies,variations of them,types of players they like for them and to see how successful/unsuccessful they’ve been and it’s been a great read for me and think it foretells where we’ll be in the very near future and many years to come.
Trace the tree and it’s the “pass to score,run to win” mentality and they’ve strengthened the ability to do both,at will,with the addition of Marshall and the incredible amount of quality competition along the OL so I think how much we throw will be determined by the play of our Defense.
Sparano always talks about having “the right 53” and THAT is the key because their systems are proven successful formulas so the more they churn,the closer we are to having the right 53 so I don’t think they’re catching up with the game I just think they wait for the perfect fit before they go all in.
I think we’ve been quite lucky being able to move around and draft the right kind of players for the last two years and then be able to pick up a Marshall,a Dansby and Mike Nolan this year because the pieces are really coming together and at the perfect time IMO.
by buttonmashersrhilarious on Jul 28, 2010 4:39 AM EDT reply actions
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