Brandon Marshall: Who gets less?
by OPhinions on May 19, 2010 4:00 AM EDT
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Having Brandon Marshall on the team should open up opportunities for our other receivers. They will be more open and have higher yards/catch this season. A couple of weeks ago Dave.Phuller posted an excellent article Feed the Beast: Brandon Marshall's Impact on the Miami Offense where he projected Marshall's effect on the Dolphins. Some of the points he made included:
- Ronnie and Ricky will run up the middle early and often,
- Shotgun and lone-setback formations will be more prevalent than in the previous year,
- Three-receiver sets and single tight end sets will be far more prevalent this year, and
- The Dolphins have one of the strongest third/fourth-down receiving tandem in the league.
So it got me to thinking who is going to get fewer passes this year, if any?
The Dolphins attempted to throw it 545 times last year, including sacks, spikes, etc. Will we throw it more at the expense of the running game? If our offense is better and we are scoring more, we could be throwing less later in games as we are handing off to burn time off the clock. Similarly, if our defense is better, there will be less pressure to pass and score. Dan Henning likes to spread it around, but as Dave.Phuller pointed out, Henning also knows how to feed the beast.
So how many passes do you think the Dolphins will throw this year? And specifically, who do you think will get thrown at less this year if any, including the tight ends and running backs, and why? And how many receptions do you think they will have this year? We can give Marshall all of Ginn's "thrown ats" but that still leaves up to 76 passes that have to come from somewhere, unless you think we will throw more and Ronnie and Ricky will used less this year.
To help with the discussion, here are the receiving stats from last year:
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Bess was pretty much Henne's go-to guy on third down, and I think Marshall will cut into that significantly.
I’d imagine a fair amount will come out of Camarillo’s cut, as well, but I don’t see B-Marsh topping 100 receptions in 2010. This kind of statistic is insanely difficult to predict, so who really knows.
"To borrow a simile from the football field, we believe that men must play fair, but that there must be no shirking, and that the success can only come to the player who hits the line hard." — Theodore Roosevelt
by Chad Henne is Your New Bicycle on May 19, 2010 4:34 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, hard to predict. I was trying to figure out what Henning's strategy might be.
With 1 TE sets, probably Fasano keeps more of his than Haynos, but maybe Haynos gets more opportunities in the end zone with Marshall running around also. Ronnie and Cobbs are coming off of injury, so less than they would have if no injury, but more than 3 for Cobbs and the same for Ronnie.
I agree Marshall should take away some/many of Bess’ 3rd receptions, which might explain why Bess wasn’t sure what his role will be this season. Hilliard and Polite will give up some but I see Hilliard rushing more. In any case, I expect that the other receivers will see a lot more of the chunky yardage.
By the way, real nice post and discussion on the Pats Pulpit.
I agree with the last line of your comment
and greatly appreciate the props. Thank you, sir; your post was well-written and deserves some credit as well. I mean, none of my posts compare to Slats Sunday. Kudos.
Wow, Joey Heynos saw 588 snaps? That will greaty be reduced, and I think you can throw half of those TAs to Marshall. You can, as you mentioned, also give almost all of Ginn’s TAs to BMarsh, and I agree with CHiYNB that Davone Bess will likely see less action throw his way. Then again, Hartline will either see many of Cam’s snaps, or they’ll just flip-flop TAs or something.
I think of it this way: it’s not so much a worry that our other receivers see less passes thrown their way. The question is, can we expect their catch% to increase with less passes coming their way? I think yes, and I think this means Chad Henne sports a completion percentage closer to CP10 while the production of our receivers does not decline a great deal.
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
1a. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee/1b. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1c. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson/1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas/1f. Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
by Dave.Phuller on May 19, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised too that Haynos got as many snaps as he did.
I wonder how many were for rushing plays? Also if we go to 1 TE sets more there will be 1 less potential blocker to help with the pass rush. This puts more pressure on the O-line than last year.
And yes, it’s how the team benefits as a whole that’s most important to us, not who gets how many snaps/passes. Privately, for the players, how many opportunities they get can affect their pocketbook in the long run but I think they’ll take more wins anyday.
It’s easy to say Marshall will get 150 completions or 1,500 yards, but for me it’s fun to say, OK I’m the OC, let me game plan and see where are those passes are coming from? Even though the receivers have to get open and catch the ball, the overall game plan philosophy and packages sent out on the field will determine who gets the opportunities in the first place.
PS – Thanks for the Kudos, but I see Slats Sunday as just a collection of hopefully entertaining thoughts and stats told in a smartass way. [And right now I have not one thing for this Sunday, shit…]
Smartass commentary is some of my favorite
Specifically when it’s not contrived.
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
1a. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee/1b. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1c. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson/1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas/1f. Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
by Dave.Phuller on May 19, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, Oph, I really appreciate it.
"To borrow a simile from the football field, we believe that men must play fair, but that there must be no shirking, and that the success can only come to the player who hits the line hard." — Theodore Roosevelt
by Chad Henne is Your New Bicycle on May 19, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
This is something too complicated to predict.....
Yes, we threw the ball 545 times last year. We also lost our starting RB, our 3rd string RB, and had an injury plagued OL that made running the ball very difficult. We also had a piss poor defense that made us play from behind far too many times.
Even though we acquired Marshall, this is still a run first team. Yes, we will air it out a bit, but I tend to believe it will be less than we did last year. Teams can’t put 8 or 9 in the box anymore, so you’re going to see a vast improvement in the running game.
Depending on how well the defensive adjustments take to the team, will go along way in determining whether the overall passing numbers go up or down. I’m inclined to believe all the WR’s numbers will go down, TE’s numbers will go up, and Henne’s numbers will go slightly up.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
What about all the times that Teddy Ginn was targeted, but he dropped the ball (like it was hot)
and all the times he was the first option, but he couldn’t get off the jam or ran the wrong route?
I predict that they will go to Marshall early and often until he is double and triple teamed and then they will either run the ball down the other team’s throats or get the ball to Hartline and Bess until the other team dares to risk one-on-one coverage to Marshall and BANG! touchdown/big play to Marshall
Jared Odrick 6-5 304 DL & Tim Dobbins 6-1 246 ILB & Koa Misi 6-3 251 LOLB
Brandon Marshall 6-4 230 WR; John Jerry 6-5 328 LG; AJ Edds 6-3 247 LILB
Nolan Carroll 5-11 204 CB & Rashad Jones 6-1 214 S; Chris McCoy 6-3 244 ROLB; Austin Spitler RILB 6-2 243; Pet Cat:Chris "He's the REAL" McCoy 6-3 244
I agree. It will be a huge difference for Henne to have a guy as the number one that he trusts.
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by texascowpunk on May 19, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
God I hope B Marsh gets triple teamed a lot.
That will open up one of our other receivers, or it will open up serious holes for the running game. I am so excited for this year.
Dolphins and Gators baby!
I see maybe a little drop overall
in attempts while there is a big increase in production. Without 8 or 9 in the box against us and with single coverage, Henne should be able to complete just about anything he wants just about whenever he wants based on the sure hands and sharp minds of our recievers…all based on the fact that our running game should be MAMMOTH this year if the Oline works out like we all hope it does.
However there is the flip side…Pass attempts may increase significantly due the the fun that Henne has throwing to a guy like Brandon Marshall! Just think how fun it would be to throw to a guy who makes something happen nearly every time he touches the ball! that would make it sooooo cool to see two and three guys lining up to cover BM which frees up guys like Hartline, bess and “catches with Ass cam” LOL of course that makes the D back off and Whoo Woo! here comes the R&R Express!~! HOw Cool!!!
I see Bess and Cam loosing some TAs
Bess because I think the BM will take over the role of Henne’s go-to-guy on third downs, which has been Bess’ bread-n-butter during his young career.
Cam because Hartline will more than likely supplant him as the starter this season.
I don't think the idea of "The Beast" hitting 100 receptions is that far in left field...
Take the 11 receivers that had 10 or more receptions and subtract 9 receptions out of each of their stat totals and bam you have 99 receptions right there. That’s just simple math. I would think that Bess, Hartline, and Cam would drop off, but we won’t be asking Haynos, Brown, Williams, Hilliard, and Fasano to be as big of a presence in the passing game. More for 1st and 3rd down short yardage plays. “The Beast” will be fed after our O-Line and R&R express run over everyone. If we have to get into a shootout, I feel much better about our chances of a win.
Bold Pat White Prediction: 500 Yds Rushing, 300 Yds Passing, 3 Touchdowns
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Nobody gets less.
They should have between 10-15 more offensive plays per game since they will control the ball better and get more 1st down. More scoring, more 1st downs, less punting, less turnovers (see ginn).
Miami Dolphin fan since 1971. 17-0 fan club. Winningest all-time head coach fan club. Best QB ever fan club.
Look how nasty Davone Bess catch percentage was
and we targeted him a bunch. But nearly 1 out of 5 plays he was on the field he was thrown to, that is insane (and even better then BMARSH). But look at how poor Ted Ginn did, he barely caught 50% of the balls sent his way
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
Suck it Pats, Bills and most of all... the god damn jets.
Sean Smith/Vontae Davis= Pat Surtain/Sam Madison
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
and anybody know what MT stands for?
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
Suck it Pats, Bills and most of all... the god damn jets.
Sean Smith/Vontae Davis= Pat Surtain/Sam Madison
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
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