Building Through The Draft: An unofficial case study, part four

WOW finally…

But what Im wondering is how Parcells draft picks stack up against the other dynasties! Like the Patriots, Steelers, and Colts.

We all have faith in the Tri-fecta, but its almost impossible to see where the Front Office is going with the first pick..Dez Bryant would be a possible fit, but he is an idiot. And football IQ counts for something with the Front Office. I easily see the first 2 rounds being a defensive pick.

They are sold they can find a solid WR in later rounds ala Hartline.

A) there’s a 66% chance that player you draft is at LEAST a starter. Not terrible odds.
B) there’s a reason guys get traded. Sometimes, it’s just because they fit into their old team’s scheme or plans, other times it’s because they may be a health risk, character problem, or not as good as the general public thinks.
C) age. Drafted players come in at 22 or younger, meaning you get 8-10 good years out of a starting caliber player. Guys in trades are usually 25+, meaning you only get a max of about 6 years out of them.

Sometimes, I’m all for trading that pick for a proven player, but if you have a smart FO that excels in the draft, you have better than normal odds of finding a player in that draft, so it’s worth keeping.

And sometimes, it just comes down to egos :-)
There certainly isn’t a “wrong” way to go about this.

They took, like a zillion, proven starter and superstar and we did it as well in the last Shula year. That doesnt work well either. as LN21 said, sometime, to many egos on a team can burn it down. U might take a couple of FA players, but u want to keep getting draft players too.

Agree – getting a “starter” in rounds 1 -2 is very probable…which is why you should build thru the draft most of the time. You get a younger, healthier player for a few more years – if you resign him…My chief complaint is that ALL of the NFL Front offices’ have HUGE EGOS attached, and almost never admit thier mistakes… just repeat them over and over.
Now with Miami, we have one of the better ORG’s right now, but the TUNA and Co. have still made thier share of mistakes. I would give the a B – or C + so far… no better.
Pat White, Pat Turner, Shawn Murphy were big mistakes to name just a few… and at this point MERLING has not proved his worth (#1 second round pick) BESS for one was a big pickup for nothing. Starks – great pickup… but Wilson and Wilford busts also. HENNE is the pick by which this team will be judged, as a second rounder – if he becomes a STAR then their grade goes up a LOT… Picking LONG #1 overall was solid but nothing to brag about. Hell when you pick first overall – if you mess it up you are an idiot…period. This draft makes – or breaks this team for years to come… a great draft propells us into SB contention – a bad one….. and we suffer for 2-3 more years of .500 football. an “average draft” will still leave us behind NE and NY… and don’t forget the freakin Patsies have 3 second round picks this year – in a deep draft – and two FIRST ROUND picks next year….. making this year critical for Miami’s long term success…

I’d almost like to drill down ever so deeper into the metrics.

More specifically when thinking in terms of the star to bust continuum, where are these coming from in terms of draft position?

IOW, does the star/bust ratio get better….or worse as you are earlier or later in the 1st round?

Intuitively, one would think that obviously the top picks are less likely to bust, but at least from anecdotes and the countless high profile bustsl, i don’t know that such an assertion is true. It could be that the top prospects are being drafted and evaluated by consistently bad franchises and the NFL definitely has its perennial doormats (detroit, oakland, cleveland, others).

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/resignjtnow/

This petition thing is a dead horse now guys, plus do you think Parcells cares about our puny mortal opinions? I sure wouldn’t