FanPost

Creative thinking through history (Updated)

When imagining what is about to happen I lean heavily on history.  Between the FO's history and premium in picks that should have been paid for the Air Marshall, I never saw it coming.  Giving up anything less than a 1st on Denver's side wasn't something I imagined would actually happen.

As for Ted Ginn it was no surprise based on his salary and time invested/improvement.  Throw in the addition of the Air Marshall and someone needed to go.  It's beneficial to have the Air Marshall on the field as much as possible so having a stable of receivers didn't make sense.  Bess is the next priority on the field and Hartline/Cam seem similar so the plays can stay the same between the two sharing as well as Cam spelling Bess.  Ginn became the minority.  Dedicating prep time in practice and the playbook to a speed threat didn't make sense if the guy could be gone by the end of camp.

After the jump I'll clear my mind on some other things I've been pondering.

Before the trade for the Air Marshall I was focusing in on one point for the draft.  After the trade this kind of changes but I'll still convey it with the spin.

If you're going to use the fact that the Tuna has never drafted a WR early then you should say the same about NT and FS.  He hasn't drafted either of those positions in the 1st round of a draft he's run or even been involved with.  I'm going to look into how high he's ever drafted either of those positions but my guess is the same result in the 2nd as well. 

UPDATE:  Since his days with the Jets he hasn't drafted a NT or FS before the 4th, maybe even the 4th included after I check a few names.  Go to www.footballdb.com/teams, click the history of a team and then click draft next to the year to confirm for yourself.  The history of his years in New England and with the Giants follows the same trend.

On the other side of the coin it's a small sample.  For argument's sake he wasn't doing all the picking in New England.  That leaves 10 years of first round picks which isn't exactly the best sample size to base statistics off of.  Including the 2nd and 3rd round would make it much more of a realistic statistic.

This FO will no longer surprise me.  I'm not sure if the Dolphins will ever surprise me more than that ever again.  Props to them for keeping it quiet although I wish the Air Marshall would have been a little less excited previous to the trade going down.  Those random friend of a friend of a friend fanposts although entertaining should never come true.

Now that Tuna has been involved with the coaching of Terry Glenn, TO and the acquisition of the Air Marshall I'm really starting to stray from looking at his history as an exact blueprint.  On defense I'm beginning to stray over to the history of our new DC, Mike Nolan.

First of all to those who think the price of Dansby was too high.  His salary suggests he should be in the discussion with a guy like Patrick Willis and I'm sure the FO agrees.  Good thing the man who drafted and developed Willis was here to give input on the transaction.  Same for the acquisition of the Air Marshall since Nolan felt he was the hardest WR his defense faced last year and it was in practice.

Looking at how Nolan built the Denver D leads me to some thoughts.

Nolan succeeded with an extremely undersized OLB last year in Elvis Dumervil.  Impressive when he finished #1 in sacks with 17, 2.5 more than Jared Allen at #2.  That's 12 more than he had the previous year and 4.5 more than he got in 2008.  That makes me think Nolan can either do something unexpected with someone on the roster or in the draft.  Parcells might have a history of OLB in the 1st but Nolan might be able to work magic with someone less expensive.

Another issue exists at FS where Parcells instead has no history of drafting a FS in the 1st.  Add that Nolan brought in a 36 y/o Brian Dawkins last year and us drafting a FS really doesn't make sense.  Darren Sharper seems like the kind of name Nolan would gravitate to if he felt Dawkins was a key last year.  Maybe he feels that way about Atogwe although I'm not sure if I should be putting his name with them.  One thing is he's six years younger than Sharper who'll be 35 in June.  For me that's big.

At NT last year Nolan had the Broncos sign Ronald Fields who had been with him in San Fran.  That leads me to think he can make due at NT without a proven commodity.  Throw in that Parcells has no history of drafting a NT early and I'm left thinking that NT in the 1st might not be a safe bet although trading back for Cody is my preference.

Well, I just spent three paragraphs explaining why they won't draft there three biggest needs in the 1st round although I still think it's going to happen.  Just adds to the unknown entity that we are in the 1st.  Leaves me extremely excited leading up to Thursday and expecting anything.

All bets are off when you can give reasoning on both sides as to whether they will or won't draft or sign this guy or that guy.

I could even make an argument for them drafting a QB that falls in the first and then auctioning him off to those who showed interest but thought the Fins were bluffing.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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