Building Through The Draft: An unofficial case study, part two

He had all chances of being a star, but he had alot of strings of bad luck. between getting hurt and shot he didnt have much luck. I dont think you can count him as bust becaue of the simple fact that he was always hurt. I think had he stayed healthy he would be in the top 15 at his position.

Because right now, I am trending to trading as many picks as possible for certain starters and stars. The stats above suggest that picks in the 1st two rounds are a coin flips (50% for – 50% against) for starters. Yet if you trade a 1st or 2nd round pick, you are almost certainly getting a starter.

The Dolphins have reached a deal with guard Richie Incognito to make the lineman just the second new addition to the roster since the start of free agency. The sides have agreed to terms, and the contract is currently being finalized, two sources said Wednesday morning.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/03/17/1533456/miami-dolphins-keep-guard-richie.html#ixzz0iRbA7L6K

A worthwhile follow-up to this series would be the positives and negatives of FAs

How often does a FA exceed, meet, or fall short of expectations?
How often does a FA harm or benefit the chemistry of a team?
How long does it take a FA to become a team leader or to upset pre-existing team leaders?

Break these down into both Premier FAs and then Solid FAs (lower tier guys aren’t relevant imo).

as I’ve spent some time delving into past drafts and seeing how successful the process is.

Having Matty quantify it per year and put it in a summarized form as he’s done here though, is very useful for illustrating the value as well as risks, of draft picks.

From the information Matty has presented so far, on drafts from 2000, ’01, ’02, ’03, you are looking at a minimum of 41% of the players picked in the first two rounds falling into the disappointment/bust category. Assuming each team has 1 pick in each of those rounds, that means from 2000-2003, the average team picked 8 players in those first two rounds, and roughly 3.5 (yes a fraction) were busts/disappointments.

What is most striking is that players picked this early are the most heavily scouted, evaluated, tested, and retested of I would say, any sport in the world. Yet at least 40% of those players are big disappointments or outright busts.

That certainly lends credence to the argument that trading picks for a known commodity, as in a current NFL player with an established track record, is one way to go. The problem is that teams seem to go to extremes with this….whereby they go all out and give away their draft picks with little regard, all too add that one big name. The washington redskins have been a good example of this approach.

I think they key is to use the available channels to acquire players (meaning draft, trades, and FA), wisely. One thing the draft does is give you the chance to acquire plenty of depth at a variety of positions, (at a minimum), as well as uncover potential stars (in later rounds). Plus, every year’s FA class is different and whose available in the open market may not match your need. This is almost always the case with QB’s for example, as top or highly regarded QB’s almost never hit the open market as FA’s.

Altogether I think the draft takes top priority the further you are from contending. As a team builds up talent and has only a small number of needs, then a key FA or trade can take you to the next level. The saints had been a talented team now for several years since getting Brees, but a few key additions in the last 1-2 years are what imo, made them SB champs.