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Building Through The Draft: An unofficial case study, part one

One of the most heated debates of this offseason amongst Dolphin fans has been this front office's unwillingness to deal away high draft picks for proven players. Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall come to mind immediately. Meanwhile other teams have had no problem giving up draft picks in exchange for proven commodities.

Bill Parcells has long been a believer in building through the draft. In theory, if you make the right pick you can end up with potential stars - or at least long-term starters - for four to six seasons before contract extensions are even a thought. But that's just it - these "cost-controlled" players could become players who help you achieve sustained success. There's always that chance, of course, that you end up taking a player in the draft who is not part of the solution.

So what are the odds you land, at the very least, long-term starters in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft? There's no real way to answer that. But history can at least provide you with some sort of idea as to how successful players selected in the first two rounds eventually become.

So here's the deal. I've decided to do a series of posts that will act as an amateur case study into estimating what the odds are that a team will be successful with their draft picks in the first two rounds. But note - this is not scientific in any way. And I'm sure statisticians will be insulted at my unofficial case study. To those people, I say this - get over it.

This is meant for nothing more than generating some discussion.

And here's how I'm going to do it. For each post in the series, I'll begin by defining the five categories that I'll be grouping players into. And then I'll share the results. From there, I'll leave it up to you to interpret and debate.

Star-divide

The first two drafts I have broken down are the 2000 and 2001 drafts. For these two, the groups are defined below:

Superstar - Player named as 1st team All-Pro more than once and who has multiple Pro Bowl appearances.
Star - Named 1st team All-Pro one time or has more than one Pro Bowl appearance.
Starter - At least five years as a primary starter and has not appeared in more than one Pro Bowl.
Disappointment - Not at least a five year starter but has appeared in at least 80 games (equivalent to five 16 game seasons).
Bust - Played in fewer than 80 career games.

If you'd like to see the players selected in each draft, you can click here for the 2000 draft or here for the 2001 draft.

The 2000 NFL Draft 1st and 2nd Round Results:

Category # of Players % of Draft Picks
Superstar 1 1.6%
Star 9 14.5%
Starter 26 41.9%
Disappointment 7 11.3%
Bust 19 30.6%

 

Note how nearly 42% of the players selected in the first two rounds of the 2000 NFL Draft were not primary starters for an NFL team for five seasons. Some examples of "disappointments" from this class include Ron Dayne (11th overall), Stockar McDougle (20th overall), and Rob Morris (28th overall). Some busts include Peter Warrick (4th overall) and Sylvester Morris (21st overall). The lone "superstar" was Brian Urlacher, the ninth overall selection.

Of the first round alone, 12 of the 31 picks were either "disappointments" or "busts" while only 9 were "stars" or "superstars."

The 2001 NFL Draft 1st and 2nd Round Results:

Category # of Players % of Draft Picks
Superstar 5 8.1%
Star 10 16.1%
Starter 20 32.3%
Disappointment 12 19.3%
Bust 15 24.2%

 

As you can see, the '01 draft had more "superstars" but also more combined "disappointments" and "busts." Some of the "superstars" include LaDainian Tomlinson (5th overall), Richard Seymour (6th overall), and Chad Ochocinco (36th overall). But on the flip side, some "busts" were David Terrell (8th overall), Jamal Reynolds (10th overall), and Willie Middlebrooks (24th overall).

The first round alone saw 11 players chosen who ended up in the bottom two categories while 9 were in the top.

Just some food for thought as this case study continues. Some early thoughts?

6 recs  |  Comment 57 comments |

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I don't disagree with what you're trying to do here

It just already bothers me how some people will take this and run with it when god knows how these stats compare to our actual current front office’s ability to draft superior talent.

I’d like to see how Bill Parcells’ and Jeff Ireland’s draft history stack up. I would guarantee they best the norm.

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1b. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1c. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 16, 2010 12:26 AM EDT reply actions  

In saying this.. are there any receivers that either of them drafted that are among the upper 2 zones of this?

I know Matty is not going into who drafted who, but because we are in pretty serious need of a true #1 receiver, has either Parcells or Ireland ever drafted a receiver who went on to be a solid #1 ? (in or out of the 1st 2 rounds)

Henne is the QB of the Miami Dolphins. Good.
Trade Brown? Are you smoking crack?
Hartline will be the Dolphins #2 for years to come. Kid has IT
We need this pass D to STEP THE F UP and do what they get paid to do!
We dont need a 30+ receiver we need younger, Bowe or Marshall will do fine

by MainePhinFan on Mar 16, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Haha rarely happens

allow me my credit and pride ;)

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1b. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1c. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 16, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

And truth be told,

he can’t be given credit for any Giant draft picks because George Young was in charge of player personnel, of course he had a lot of input but he left the Giants because they wouldn’t “let him shop the groceries”.

by uncle finster on Mar 16, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's a good point.

I was wondering the same thing….how has The Tuna et all done over the years in terms of forcasting high round tallent?

They say if you are going to play the lottery regularly you should always play the same numbers. The Trifecta basically do that with the draft….they have a vision and a system…they know what they want the team to look like and they know the type of player they want – physically, mentally, attitudinally – to fit that system.

Seems to me you have a better chance of being successful if you know what you’re looking for rather than playing “pick two” on the ‘best athlete available’ loto.

Early days yet but it looks like they’re doing OK so far: Long, Merling, Henne, Davis and Smith…the jury is still out on Pat White.

It should also be noted that they’ve had six picks in the top 64 over the last two years rather than four….that helps the odds as well.

Cheers.

by PhrozenPhish on Mar 16, 2010 5:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

the safest pick for us would be iupati

not saying we should get him but Anyone else we would pick has the chance to be a bust, he is going to be a beast

Head Dude of the draft Jimmy Graham bandwagon, Riding shotgun on Nicky's Spiller Skybus, Co-Vice President of the official Matty I fan club. No more stupid mock drafts please!

by jojo phin fan on Mar 16, 2010 12:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Hoping we don't have to worry about OL depth that early

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1b. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1c. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 16, 2010 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

not saying we should

But it would be a mean ass left side of the o line for the next 10 years

Head Dude of the draft Jimmy Graham bandwagon, Riding shotgun on Nicky's Spiller Skybus, Co-Vice President of the official Matty I fan club. No more stupid mock drafts please!

by jojo phin fan on Mar 16, 2010 12:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

... what about Incognito..?

Adjutant General, Matty Fan Club
64 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"Official draft Koa Misi bus -- the A.J. Duhe of this decade!"

by Alpha6 on Mar 16, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love posts like this

anything that tries to take it to the next level. Rec’d, enjoyed and looking forward to the next.

Go get Suh if at all possible.

by special agent wildcat on Mar 16, 2010 12:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Dolphin drafts 2000 2001

really stunk – many of those players either cut or lasted 1 maybe 2 years, Ricky cost us big and the worst was yet to come with Saban and Camoron

by coloradokevin on Mar 16, 2010 12:48 AM EDT reply actions  

JJ sucked here

2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
2009 Best Regular Season Record in NYPPL.
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.

by Patssuck456 on Mar 16, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

???

He drafted our D. Atleast on the D side is was REALLY good.

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(23 years and counting)

by Aleta on Mar 16, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is what miami is gonna do

NT Dan Williams in the 1st.
WR A. Benn in the second.
OLB in the 3rd.
FS in the 4th.

the only other thing i can see happening is

trade down a couple spots pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick (for this im just gonna say 2nd)

FS Earl Thomas in the 1st
WR A. Benn in 2nd
OLB with other 2nd
NT Cam Thomas in 3rd
TE with 5th

by phinfan20 on Mar 16, 2010 12:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree with you 100%

either scenario sounds preety good to me, although as far as olb i really like Eric Norwood and he is expected to be a second or third rounder so picking him up there would be great. but thats my opinion :) im really hoping for Benn though i think hed fit us well.

by Ace2489 on Mar 16, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Willie Middlebrooks???

I would never draft a guy with that name. Doesn’t that sound like a bust?

"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."

Coach Paul Bear Bryant

by AussieKen on Mar 16, 2010 12:58 AM EDT reply actions  

what dolphins should key on in draft

Obvisouly they need a NT and olb. Now I do like Spiller and I know we need RB. Rocky is to old and brown is to injury prone. I just am not a huge believer in rbs. I think it has more to do with o lines and styles of play. I think we can get stud back in second round

by rob4271 on Mar 16, 2010 2:27 AM EDT reply actions  

yea Rocky is too old

he’s like, what, 60 years old? And all of those boxing matches had to have taken a toll.

by Matty I on Mar 16, 2010 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

hahahaha

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
1b. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1c. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1d. Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech
1e. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1f. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1g. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 16, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

... wouldn't you know..? LOL

Adjutant General, Matty Fan Club
64 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"Official draft Koa Misi bus -- the A.J. Duhe of this decade!"

by Alpha6 on Mar 16, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rocky's brain probably looks like Brian Westbrook and Kurt Warner's

The New and Improved PC-Fox, with real working Emoticon Application.
"The Emotions are appropriate almost 50% of the time"
Creator of the Cameron Wake "Crossing the Border" Award
Winner of the Pats Pulpit "Best Thread-Jacking" Award
Driver of the "LaGarrete Blountwagon"

by Farorefox on Mar 19, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very interesting numbers.....

     I think based on the last 2 seasons of Parcells/Ireland/Sparano drafts will prove to have better odds, than those of the entire NFL. I think we can include the first 2 rounds. Last year we chose Jake Long(already appeared in a Pro Bowl), and Chad Henne(on his way to being a solid starter at least). This year we chose Vontae Davis(1/2 of a very good CB tandem), and Sean Smith(the other half of that tandem).
     I will even be optimistic and say that we will see them do something with Pat White this year. I don’t know if we move him to WR, or we keep trying to throw him in at critical parts of the game and see if he can calm down and start to make more plays for us. Remember he did break one loose on an option play right before RIcky scored on an option in the Patriots game. Calling him in 5 times at various points in the game and asking a rookie to throw a pass isn’t neccessarily the most rookie friendly strategy and you could tell his arm was live when he threw the ball in those situations. I think we give him some time and he can develop. He did throw better than Sanchez at the Combine and did nothing but win in college. I think if he were given some time he can be a solid wildcat QB/ WR at the very least. I would like to see him get on the field in more situations.

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 16, 2010 5:31 AM EDT reply actions  

My most recent memory of Pat White

is watching in horror as he was almost killed in the Steekers’ game…I really hope he does develop into an NFL player but right now the safest place for him is probably Canada and the CFL.

Cheers

by PhrozenPhish on Mar 16, 2010 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

LOL!!!!!

Adjutant General, Matty Fan Club
64 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"Official draft Koa Misi bus -- the A.J. Duhe of this decade!"

by Alpha6 on Mar 16, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Parcells does a really good job drafting "Starters" early, but I don't see too many "Stars" or "Superstars" especially at the skill positions

In many ways that is his problem. While he doesn’t miss that often or draft busts early, he also fails to get those difference makers that define a team long term. Like it or not, the NFL is all about the difference makers and not getting those type of players is a problem.

A Parcell’s led team has not won a playoff game in a decade. The Jets won two playoff games after he left and the Cowboys just won a playoff game last year, and you can argue that Parcells set the foundation for each of those teams, but they didn’t win anything until after he left. IMO, the reason for that is he failed to draft difference makers.

Let's get offensive this offseason!
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron." THE DUDE (The Big Lebowski)

by ct1361 on Mar 16, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Draft Dez Bryant

Amen to that! 2 years of rebuilding the lines….it’s time to draft TD’s.

by crossborderFISHingtrip on Mar 16, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow thx 4 lookin all that up

rec’d

Im tryin to right my wrongs, but its funny how these same wrongs helped me write this song. - Mr. West

by Davone_Is_BessT on Mar 16, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah but the NFL exchange rate is hardly fixed...

just think back one year ago when the Redskins were offering a pair of #1 picks for Chad or when Dallas gave up a 1, 3, and a 6 for the league’s most expensive current #3 receiver (Roy Williams).

The fact the Ravens got Boldin for a 3 & a 4 was a big improvement over the #1 pick the Cards wanted for him last year. The Ravens wanted him in ‘09 but felt it was too much. A year later, they’ve saved themselves considerably.

I think the reasons you see teams stay away from a young receiver with the talent of Brandon Marshall are obvious & twofold: a) You’ve got to be ready to pay out at least $9M/year for a b) player who is one incident away from being suspended for at least 8 games. Marshall has had his share of problems and I think everyone knows this. If he were a solid citizen ala Calvin Johnson for instance, then teams would be fighting to get him and I’d be the first one to say the Dolphins should be in the mix. As is, it is no surprise that Denver only tendered him a #1, rather than a 1 & 3, as they knew nobody would even think of touching him for two high picks.

by Natalya on Mar 16, 2010 9:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Parcells Drafting ability

So far Parcells “drafting ability” is better than average – but you can’t say he is some kind of DRAFT EXPERT ! Example – When you pick #1 overall (2008 Jake Long) do you really DESERVE huge PROPS for picking a great player ? Not really…. That’s pretty easy to get a great player with the FIRST OVERALL PICK.
2008 – round 2 #32 Phillip Merling – not a bust, but NOT A STARTER either… STARKS is the much better player now and in the future. I would look to TRADE MERLING this year and get another pick in this deep draft. (being picked at the TOP of round #2 – he has a long way to go to justify his status.
In 2009 He missed big on PAT WHITE at #44 – AND PATRICK TURNER at #87 3rd round…..at #108 Brian Hartline was a solid pick.

40 Year FIN FAN
DRAFT a #1 WR now.........

by 62Lou on Mar 16, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

You sure about that? You think it is pretty easy to get a great player with the top overall pick?

1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington
1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State
1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State
1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC
1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky
2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State
2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC
2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi
2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah
2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State
2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
2008 Miami Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2009 Detroit Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

History suggests otherwise. How many great, or even good players do you see above? Peyton Manning, Orlando Pace. Solid/average/good but not great, Mario Williams, Eli, Palmer, Keyshawn, Bledsoe. Too soon to tell: Stafford, Long.

So just 3 great players out of 15 years worth of #1 overall picks, with at least half the guys who went in that slot, being outright flops/busts.

I’d say it is not so simple.

by Natalya on Mar 16, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Too early to judge white and turner

Merling gives great depth behind langford and starks, Its not just your starters its a game of matchups, depth and talent

by Mmcglssn on Mar 18, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like the idea of this post, looking forward to the others,

but it must be said that the NFL is made up of players from after round 2, looking quickly at our team, the 3 best players(IMO) drafted by us since Dan Marino;

Mark Clayton, round 8, drafted the same year as Dan, but after, lol.

Zach Thomas, round 5.

Jason Taylor, round 3.

Don’t get me wrong I like this post and the idea, its just that too much emphasis is put on the top picks sometimes, its not how you draft high, its how you draft overall.

Look at Merling and Langford, or Turner and Hartline or Murphy and Thomas, all the same position but the later picks have worked out better, at least so far, maybe they turn it around in the future, who knows but you do have to draft well throughout the draft.

So if you fail in the first (Yatil Green) its OK if you draft a future HOFer in the third (Jason Taylor).
⁄€:>)

by uncle finster on Mar 16, 2010 11:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Any suggestions for future HOF'ers in this year's draft say, in round 3 or 4? :-) :-)

I think with the salary cap and other contractual ramifications, the catch is it is difficult to recover from missing on your very high picks and can cost a team years. The Raiders, 49ers, and Texans with Russell, Smith, and Carr are a few of the more recent examples.

If you are picking 25th in the first round then you aren’t breaking the bank on your first round pick so it isn’t so bad if you screw it up. Then again, if you are picking late enough where the cost of a first round pick is low, chances are your team is already pretty talented and a solid playoff squad.

by Natalya on Mar 16, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Naturally but...

two things come to mind:

1 – until such a rookie cap exists, you still have to work with the existing system, including this draft obviously

and

2 – even with a rookie cap, you have finite # of draft picks. So while you might be able to afford to pay a highly drafted rookie player a lower salary with some new cap agreement, you only have so many draft picks to spend/use on a potentially bigger number of needs.

by Natalya on Mar 16, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I understand your point,

but those 3 teams you mention had/have organization problems, if your a good organization you can get through a bad pick no matter where it was IMO, our D line was our best position last year IMO and not 1 of them was drafted higher than the 3rd round.

I understand what your saying about the money, it definitely makes it more difficult and I am all for a rookie salary cap, but if you draft well you can over come it because you are getting bargains later in the draft.

by uncle finster on Mar 16, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good thoughts!

Adjutant General, Matty Fan Club
64 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"Official draft Koa Misi bus -- the A.J. Duhe of this decade!"

by Alpha6 on Mar 16, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would you consider

this that the players drafted lower have something to prove to get that larger contract down the road, wheras the upper echelon(rd 1 &2) players already have their money? Would you consider trading your RD 1(12) for (5) round 3 players. I bet you can get 2-3 starters out of the 5. Not that any team would have 5 3rd picks.

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Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions
"I likem me some UDFAs"

by Phintastic on Mar 16, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh yea I would do that, lol,

in a heartbeat, I would almost guarantee more value out of those 3rd rounders.

I also think that the $ issue does something with certain players just as the pressure of being a high draft pick can mess with some and the sting of being a later round pick can motivate others.

by uncle finster on Mar 16, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great idea...

…do you think you could do an in-depth analysis of which teams did the best in the seasons following the draft, as well as which teams had the most success by drafting such players?

It’s great if players do well with personal accolades, but does it translate into team success?

by Richard Hill on Mar 16, 2010 3:44 PM EDT reply actions  

is there any talk or possibility of...

trading next years 1st round pick for brandon marshall? i think that would help us out alot more if we could get brandon marshall and use this years 1st round pick on a needed player.

by CaliPhinsFan on Mar 16, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

The odds are better than the lottery and the payout is better....

Those are still great results. Teams don’t let franchise calibar QB’s, LT’s, DE’s & CB’s hit free agency. You have to draft them…..and they’re usually found in the 1st round.

by crossborderFISHingtrip on Mar 16, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions  

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