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NFL Draft Strategies: Part 1

There are a plethora (look it up) of different draft strategies that teams employ for the Annual Player Selection Meeting.  None of them are the "right" way to do things, and most teams combine various strategies or change their preferred method based on draft talent, need, and the overall talent level of their current players.  As fans, we rarely get a glimpse into these strategies, as most information filtered to us during the draft season is intentionally misleading or completely useless, but sometimes you can determine a team's preferred strategy after the fact, figuring out their pre-draft needs, evaluating their roster, and then observing how the team drafted.  That is how we know that Ted Thompson in Green Bay loves to draft the best player on his board, and that Al Davis sleeps right up until it's his turn, then takes the best combine performer.  

After the jump, I'll cover some of the Draft Strategies that I know of, how they work, how each would affect our Dolphins' draft this season, and then I'll try to blend them into 3 or 4 "ideal" mocks based on one overriding strategy.  The philosophies I'm going to cover are BPA, or best player available; Positional Value; Need-Based Drafting; Stockpiling; Target and Attack; and Drafting for the Future.  I'm sure many of you are familiar with these, but I'm going to go into a little bit of depth into how they work and why teams choose to follow these strategies.

For length purposes, I'll break this up into 3 parts, with 2 philosophies in each part.  Part 1 (this one) will cover BPA and Positional Value.

Jump.

Star-divide

BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE

Barrysanders_medium

Drafting for the Best Player Available doesn't always mean what fans and experts think, because most of us set a draft board based only for our team, and the experts usually set a generic Big Board based on overall rankings.  Each team has a customized board for their team, so while they may not have drafted the top guy on "Mel Kiper's Best Available" sidebar, they took the top guy on THEIR draft board.  This is the strategy used mostly by rebuilding teams trying to add as much talent to a depleted roster, and worry about need later.  This is because just about every position is a need, so it makes sense.  But there are also teams like Green Bay that tend to go BPA more often than not, based on the belief that you should never pass up superior talent and reach for a "need."  I tend to agree with this strategy based on that same principle.

We saw this with Detroit last season, taking the top-rated prospect in the draft, Matt Stafford, first overall.  Then, picking again at #20, they passed up on a LT (perceived to be their second-greatest need and a position of high importance and value) for who I believe was their highest-rated remaining player, TE Brandon Pettigrew.  The new GM of the Lions, Martin Mayhew, felt that they needed to add to his teams' talent pool regardless of position.  

~IF MIAMI USES THIS STRATEGY~

Eric Berry would be the BPA if he's there at 12, since I believe he's the top prospect in this draft.  CJ Spiller, in my opinion, will most likely be the top player on the board at our pick, so going BPA would land him in South Beach come April.

 

POSITIONAL VALUE

Tysonjackson_medium

Many teams use this strategy in the top 5 mainly because of the huge contracts given to these players.  The GM's determine that certain positions (QB, LT, DE) are cornerstones of a team, and those positions are really the only ones worth the cost of a top 5 pick.  This is smart drafting, most of the time, because you end up with a reasonable contract if the player becomes elite at his position, while if you take a less-important position (say, WR), the cost is still high even if the player reaches All-Pro status.  So using this philosophy may lead to some reaches, but it can also keep you in a good salary cap situation, as well as landing you a highly ranked player at a highly valuable position.

This strategy was on full display with the Kansas City Chiefs (and GM Scott Pioli) in 2009.  With LB Aaron Curry (most experts' top rated player) and WR Michael Crabtree (other experts' top rated player) available at the 3rd selection, Pioli reached slightly for Tyson Jackson, a defensive end (KC had a young LT in Branden Albert and had just signed QB Matt Cassel to a nice contract, so DE was the next highest-value position).  Pioli determined that, if he was going to pay that huge contract (Jackson ended up signing for 5 years, $57 million with $31 million guaranteed), he was going to pay it to one of the 3 most important positions in the sport.  

~IF MIAMI USES THIS STRATEGY~

We already have a young QB (Henne) that is on the verge of "Franchise" status, and a true anchor at LT in Jake Long, so we would look to the next most important position, which is either NT or Strong OLB (equivalent of 4-3 DE) for our 3-4 defense.  While the contract isn't nearly as big at 12 (last year's 12th pick, RB Knowshon Moreno, signed for 5 years $16.7 million with just over $13 million guaranteed) as it is at 3, it's still a decent-sized contract, and if you follow the positional value philosophy, you want that money to be well-spent.  Our pick would either be NT Dan Williams or Terrence Cody, or DE/OLB Derrick Morgan or Jason Pierre-Paul.

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

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Nice Nicky!

I hope that the Phins go with BPA, but my gut is telling me that they will go with Positional Value and an OLB. I will be upset by that, because I want Spiller (as you know I was either 1st or 2nd on that bandwagon), but this FO just doesn’t value offensive playmakers. So bypass NT (get a big fat guy in rounds 4 -7) and get someone that can rush the passer at #12.

Rec’d as usual with your posts!

Let's get offensive this offseason!
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron." THE DUDE (The Big Lebowski)

by ct1361 on Mar 14, 2010 10:50 PM EDT reply actions  

appreciate it

fellow SpillWagon mate lol

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

A safety can make all the differance. Just ask our new DC. nolen, who took a "last place defense" into the top!

He had castoff safety from the Eagles who was due a contract & they (eagles) wern’t gonna pay. front office showed there fans & helped denver on there way!

by wild zion beaver on Mar 15, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

The way I see it ...

We had 4 RBs last year. We kept them all because we have plenty of talent already at the RB position and as much as you like him, he is not what we need to win games. If you want to go with an offensive playmaker fine, but go for a WR or TE since it is a passing league. Unfortunately, I don’t think that there will be anyone at that pick that is both talented enough and doesn’t have any character issues that we will have to deal with. We need to go with either NT or OLB and pray that Cody is available in the second round.

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 14, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also ... Of the 4 RBs we had...

Not one of them had any trouble picking up yards at will. The front office has set us up with a talented and relatively young offensive line that will be together for years now. If we get enough depth there we can plug any warm body in at RB and do fine if they just run behind the O-line which is driving defenses back 2-3 yards off the ball every play and fall forward(4-5 yard gain every time).

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 14, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

BUT

big but (hehe), Ronnie and Ricky are both probably gone after this season, and they ARE the running game. Hilliard is a depth player, and Cobbs is a specialty player (special teams, blocking, maybe a screen here or there, utility guy for the wildcat etc etc). Neither of them are the future at RB, and with Ricky’s impending retirement and Ronnie’s impending downhill slide, RB is going to be a giant need going into next season. I’d rather get the top offensive skill position player in the draft and not have to worry about RB next year, than reach for a WR or TE, or take a NT at the top of the draft just because it’s a need.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we can address that problem next year when we actually have a need to fill...

Right now that is more of a luxury. The truth is we kept 4 RBs because the guys we had were too good to cut. We can’t afford to have 5 RBs this season. If someone takes the cheese on Ronnie Brown and gives us a #1 pick for him, then we can go get CJ Spiller. But even then I don’t know that we have a real need until Ronnie Brown retires. To be honest I am not sure Lex can’t be a starting RB in this league. I would almost like to wait another year and see how he develops behing Ronnie and Ricky. We have too many other HUGE glaring holes in the middle and edges of our defense and no #1 WR. Fill the needs this year, this year and worry about our needs next year, next year…

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 14, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good post

I like it!

Dan Williams or Earl Thomas in 2010!

Then give me Jerry Hughes or Ricky Sapp in round two, please

by kmb8488 on Mar 14, 2010 10:57 PM EDT reply actions  

thanks

I aim to please..

wait wha?

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That LT that the Lions passed on was Michael Oher

so there is something wrong with Detroit’s managment

I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?

by Souwantmyname on Mar 14, 2010 11:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree

but they stuck to their board and their strategy, which is why I used them as an example. And Oher probably should’ve went 2nd to STL anyway lol, so it was more than just Detroit missing on that one.

I think if they get Okung this year, and he turns out to be worthy of that selection, then they may be forgiven for passing on Oher (especially if Pettigrew becomes a key cog in the offense as well).

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

post is very solid but cody is not a top 12 pick, he sucks

i dont understand why people keep listing him at 12 when no mock draft has him anywhere close to 12, some have him 2nd or 3rd round

the guy is 50 pounds over weight and does not even like to play football. he has motivational issues off the wazzo and just all around sucks as a player, get him off the board.

the fo will never draft a guy like him this high

official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
officially on the mcclain draft bandwagon
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft

by ronnie brown for president on Mar 14, 2010 11:08 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe the consensus over the last two to three weeks is that Cody has moved into the first round.

Many of the mocks out there aren’t exactly up-to-date. And people fall in love with where they originally value someone in the draft or what they perceive a team’s needs to be without taking ever-changing circumstances into consideration.

I mean, look at my mock draft. It’s been like this for a month and I should change it, but i don’t know. I can’t bring myself to do it. :)

1. CJ Spiller RB Clemson 2. Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
3. Jordan Shipley WR Texas 4. Micah Johnson ILB Kentucky
6a. Linval Joseph NT East Carolina 6b. Myron Rolle S Florida State
6c. Andrew Quarless TE Penn State 7a. Vince Oghobasse DT Duke
7b. Sergio Render OG Virginia Tech

by kdock on Mar 14, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

i know what your saying but i dont want players who have lack of motivation

official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
officially on the mcclain draft bandwagon
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft

by ronnie brown for president on Mar 14, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is that. He needs someone to kick him in the ass. I'm not sure whose big enough, though.

1. CJ Spiller RB Clemson 2. Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
3. Jordan Shipley WR Texas 4. Micah Johnson ILB Kentucky
6a. Linval Joseph NT East Carolina 6b. Myron Rolle S Florida State
6c. Andrew Quarless TE Penn State 7a. Vince Oghobasse DT Duke
7b. Sergio Render OG Virginia Tech

by kdock on Mar 14, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well there are draft experts ...who get paid to analyze

     Then there are the people who get paid to access talent for teams. The funny thing is when we are listening to a coach that got fired because he sucked talk about what he would have done. No one values the big guys as much as they should be valued except the guys that are winning Super Bowls. The reason some teams like New England are good is not because they can bring in any old washed up players and give them new life, it is because they control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. Their old washed up RBs just have to fall forward and they have a running game.
     There are only so many big guys out there that can do the job, they have to be valued for how rare they are. Why do you think that every single decent NT got franchise tagged and even the crappy NTs got snatched up already.

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 14, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cody is the 2nd rated NT in the draft

and he’s dropped 21 lbs since Senior Bowl, which has impressed some scouts. He’s in the first round mix, and while I do agree on just about everything you said (without the exaggeration), I still listed him as one of the guys we might take if we use that particular draft strategy.

I don’t think we will take him at 12, and I don’t think he’ll be high enough on our board to take there even in the event of disaster leaving us with no viable options at 12 lol. But nobody thought Tyson Jackson should’ve been in the top 8-10 last season, and he went 3rd overall because of Pioli’s draft philosophy.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

at #12 you should never take the 4th (and in my opinion far worse) best person at their position

suh, mccoy, williams

official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
officially on the mcclain draft bandwagon
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft

by ronnie brown for president on Mar 14, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Suh and McCoy aren't projected to be NT's

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

dts

official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
officially on the mcclain draft bandwagon
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft

by ronnie brown for president on Mar 14, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

God, Tyson Jackson shouldn't have even gone in the top 20

Did anyone really think that pick was going to validate itself?

Dan Williams or Earl Thomas in 2010!

Then give me Jerry Hughes or Ricky Sapp in round two, please

by kmb8488 on Mar 14, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol probably not

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know

but not NT’s, which is what Dan Williams and Terrence are projected as. The difference is, Williams and Cody can play in either the 3-4 or the 4-3 as a DT, while Suh and McCoy would be moved to DE in the 3-4.

so that is why I’m not considering them in my NT (keyword here) rankings.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

the day suh and mccoy play de will be the day i get drafted

official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
officially on the mcclain draft bandwagon
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft

by ronnie brown for president on Mar 14, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Suh and McCoy are projected as "3" techniques in a 4-3 DL

At least that is what I am reading. They are the next Warren Sapp. They aren’t big enough to play NT or even the “1” technique.

Let's get offensive this offseason!
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron." THE DUDE (The Big Lebowski)

by ct1361 on Mar 14, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

exactly what I've been trying to say for the last half hour hahaha

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only guy on that list that plays Cody's position is Williams...

And it really depends on who you talk to about who is better… I have said again and again that I think he is by far the better NT. There are people that think that because he can’t move side to side as well or rush the passer as well that he is not as good a choice as WIlliams, but that is not really what a NT does.

“The big, physical noses in our league, they’re pretty much two-down guys,” Sparano said. “Certainly not pass rushers there.”

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 14, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

"the one and only Peezy" -tex ... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy ['the real deal'] strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC

by el presidente 00 on Mar 14, 2010 11:13 PM EDT reply actions  

pretty nifty work

"the one and only Peezy" -tex ... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy ['the real deal'] strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC

by el presidente 00 on Mar 14, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

nifty = well said?

lol

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

nifty = rec'd bc of front page status

"the one and only Peezy" -tex ... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy ['the real deal'] strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC

by el presidente 00 on Mar 14, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol add it to the phinctionary

peezy, make a CKC

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why does that sound like Sphinctertionary to me

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1b. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1c. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 14, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

because you are a massive dork

lol

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

"the one and only Peezy" -tex ... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy ['the real deal'] strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC

by el presidente 00 on Mar 15, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Drumroll, please..

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

1a. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
1b. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
1c. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
1d. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
1e. Trade.

by Dave.Phuller on Mar 15, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol the good ole phinctionary

"the one and only Peezy" -tex ... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy ['the real deal'] strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC

by el presidente 00 on Mar 15, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, and definitely rec'd on this one Nicky. Awesome idea for a fanpost!

1. CJ Spiller RB Clemson 2. Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
3. Jordan Shipley WR Texas 4. Micah Johnson ILB Kentucky
6a. Linval Joseph NT East Carolina 6b. Myron Rolle S Florida State
6c. Andrew Quarless TE Penn State 7a. Vince Oghobasse DT Duke
7b. Sergio Render OG Virginia Tech

by kdock on Mar 14, 2010 11:15 PM EDT reply actions  

thank you sir

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why do you guys think that Morgan or JPP is the best fit for us.

Morgan is a better suited DE while Jpp is a one hit wonder and can only rush while there is potential it is just to risky. If we’re going ot go OLB might as well be someone who is reliable but also talented someone like Weatherspoon or Graham. If not Earl Thomas or CJ Spiller. These are all safe but very talented picks and could our team out alot.

Chillin in the Henne ERA!!!!
"I'm not afraid to hit an old man in Public" The Hangover
Driver of the Golden Tate Limosine!!!
Who will win Terrance Cody or Rex Ryan?
"Blast" Stewie from Family Guy

by DPL3 Rollin on Mar 14, 2010 11:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Morgan and JPP both project to play the SOLB position

while Spoon and Graham I believe project to the weakside. The SOLB is more important to the 3-4 defense because he is the primary run-stopping OLB, as well as being responsible for jamming the TE and still getting a rush on the passer. The Rush Backer, or WOLB is usually a pass rushing specialist and not as good vs the run. That’s why I think Morgan or JPP are more likely picks than Weatherspoon or Graham, although Graham may be able to play on the strongside.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Spoon is faster and better in coverage than JPP and Morgan and could hold his own against the run.

Graham is good at both Stopping the run and Rushing the passer. We may not get Weatherspoon but i feel he is better than all the Linebackers in this draft as he could do it all.

Chillin in the Henne ERA!!!!
"I'm not afraid to hit an old man in Public" The Hangover
Driver of the Golden Tate Limosine!!!
Who will win Terrance Cody or Rex Ryan?
"Blast" Stewie from Family Guy

by DPL3 Rollin on Mar 14, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Weatherspoon is below 240 lbs

JPP and Morgan are both 260+. They project much better size-wise to the SOLB position. Spoon is too small to play there IMO, and projects much better to the weakside or the inside. I’m not arguing that he isn’t good, just that he’s a SOLB

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

he could always add on a few pounds but im not saying were going to draft him as we never know

but i definitely know we are not going to draft JPP. He played easy teams and was a one time wonder i doubt we pick him up. plus he could only pass rush. At least Weatherspoon and Graham are Well Rounded

Chillin in the Henne ERA!!!!
"I'm not afraid to hit an old man in Public" The Hangover
Driver of the Golden Tate Limosine!!!
Who will win Terrance Cody or Rex Ryan?
"Blast" Stewie from Family Guy

by DPL3 Rollin on Mar 14, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No to all 4 of them

Weatherspoon is not a 3-4 only a 4-3. Graham and Morgan are both 4-3 DE only. They can’t play standing up. JPP is the only one that can play 3-4 and he is a 1 year wonder. Why take the risk in the first round on that? Just trade down and get Earl Thomas. Grab an extra 3rd from the 49ers. There are OLBs available there. Eric Norwood is a 3-4 OLB that fits us much better than any of these guys. He is good against the run and can drop in coverage. That is something we don’t have in our current OLBs.

Draft Earl Thomas Bandwagon!

by troynuke on Mar 16, 2010 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thomas would need to be taken at 12

The only wisdom is the knowledge that you don't know.
And, as always, screw the JETS!!!!!!!!

by PotM on Mar 16, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good work Nicky...

I just don’t necessarily buy CJ Spiller as the " best player on the board." That’s your bias. These guys “the Triad” don’t give a damn about any of this stuff. For instance, they knew Matt Ryan was really good and probably the best player in the draft, but they went for Jake Long. The biggest-baddest guy because that’s what they wanted. They will have their own draft strategy like always.

"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."

Coach Paul Bear Bryant

by AussieKen on Mar 14, 2010 11:34 PM EDT reply actions  

of course, I agree

This isn’t a post about what draft strategy Parcells uses. He has his own philosophy, and that’s to build in the trenches (which is basically drafting on positional value, he just values certain positions differently than other GM’s).

and yeah Spiller being the top-rated guy on the board at 12 is my bias, that’s how I have him ranked on MY BOARD, I stated that much in the post lol.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just know this..

Even if they sign JT there’s a gapping hole at OLB when it comes to what they like. I believe it going to be there where they pick. What’s good about “the Triad” is that they will be very thorough on all the prospects.

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

yup

we gotta find a SOLB in this draft.. whether it’s at 12 or in round 2 (Jerry Hughes?), I’m not sure, but I do believe we will take one

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hell, I thought they would take one last year!

If I had a major complaint about this FO’s 1st two drafts it would be that they have yet to take a LB, whether ILB or OLB. Dansby makes the unit better. Drafting a stud OLB makes it better still. But that OLB can wait for the 2nd round, cause Spiller is the pick at #12. =)

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by ct1361 on Mar 15, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol agreed

but I think after Porter’s first year, we might have felt comfortable at that spot going into last season with Taylor, Roth, Anderson, Porter, and Wake.. who would’ve thought one year from that we’d be looking at Anderson and Wake only, with possibly JT?

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exatcly. I still don't understand getting rid of Roth like that.

I wish they would have just traded Porter. Last year just was kind of a waste for him. I just want the defense improved; its hard to watch a game with the defense playing how they did last season. Good thing I was at Hooters most of the time. :)

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol plenty of.. shall we say.. pleasant distractions?

I agree that Porter should’ve been traded last season, and I think that might’ve eliminated the issue with Roth (supposedly it was over a contract or playing time or something, which wouldn’t have been an issue if Porter was gone).

Should’ve sold high on Porter just like we should with Ronnie IMO.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

No Ronnie is a good dude.

(Even though he went to Auburn) He just has had bad luck with injuries. If we took CJ Spiller the same thing could happen; that’s the nature of the game for RB’s. With Roth the BS started before training camp, so I don’t know what could have been done. Anyway Ronnie should stick around a few more years he won’t have the wear and tear of LT.

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

he already has the wear and tear of an LT

not in sheer number of carries, but damage to his body. Those two injuries (knee and foot) were major setbacks and result in more “mileage” IMO than a full season of carries. Bad luck or not, he can’t stay healthy, and at 28 (soon to be 29, I believe during this season) years old, with 2 season-ending lower body injuries in the last 3 years, I don’t think he has that many years left, and he certainly won’t be reaching elite status anytime soon.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stop it Nicky, LOL!

LT’s carries ARE the wear and tear issues. Ronnie will be fine, this isn’t 1979 – They know how to handle sports injuries these days.

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

it still takes a huge toll on the body

lol.. Don’t you think if LT sustained a serious knee injury, he would’ve broke down a year or 2 ago?

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know.

LT was their primary weapon for a long time. Ronnie has nowhere near that kind of mileage.

"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

yes!!!

The Jerry Hughes bandwagon is going to start filling up!! Jump aboard now!

by Matty I on Mar 15, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey Matty have you seen that guy Reshad Jones!!! WOW!

Who want’s to start a bandwagon with him?!! You can still have your Eric Berry Bandwagon, ok, Damn! :)

"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."

Coach Paul Bear Bryant

by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jones is just the kind of safety that they like.

Probably more than Berry or Thomas. All the analysis that I’ve seen says that he can play both. I our scheme he can play FS.

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by AussieKen on Mar 15, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is why i love this website

you guys research exactly what i want to know but am too lazy to do myself.
GREAT post
ty and rec’d

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by Davone_Is_BessT on Mar 14, 2010 11:37 PM EDT reply actions  

hahahahaha

thanks lambo :-)

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 14, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

looks like you didnt forget either haha

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by el presidente 00 on Mar 15, 2010 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

nice read.

i would like getting dan williams or either of the OLB’s. what about trading down a couple spots, get an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder and draft earl thomas in the 1st. ?

as much as i would love to have a playmaker like cj spiller. i just dont see it happening. not unless someone is willing to give up that 1st round pick for ronnie. but i dont see that happening. but every year there always seems to be a great group of RB’s in the draft. i think they will address that position next year when ricky’s gone.

it would be nice working out some sort of trade with the chargers for V. Jackson. they need a RB. also steal that FS oj (idk how to spell his last name) from the rams. then we could draft spiller and fill in OLB, NT, G, and TE in the later rounds.

by phinfan20 on Mar 14, 2010 11:49 PM EDT reply actions  

lol I like him

got a mean streak

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

you might not like him when henne throws a big 50 yards TD pass!

and it gets called back because Icognito had to get in some DE’s face. lol

i like his energy though. a big mean guy with some attitude! hes just gotta learn to keep his temper cool.

by phinfan20 on Mar 15, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol

He’ll have Henne in his face… then Sparano… then a gatorade guy as he watches a series from the bench lol

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

idk if we should take the chance of henne getting in his face

we cant have him headbutting our franchise QB like that titan player. lol

by phinfan20 on Mar 15, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

hahahaha

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don't forget Henne's a big boy too

and is one tough mofo

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by PotM on Mar 16, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Spagnoulo tried doing that approach with him,

and he played nice for about a game then in the next game he was headbutting guys again and drew more penalties. Dude has a problem controlling his temper.

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by Chupathingy on Mar 15, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like a guy on OL with a temper

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I need some clarification on SOLB vs. WOLB

The way I understand it, the SOLB plays on whatever side the TE is lined up on ( strong side of the offense) a couple yards off the line. The WOLB lines up on the opposite side (weak side of the offense) on the line. Most run plays go to the strong side because thats where the extra blocker is. Thats why the SOLB is off the line, to diagnose the play, plug the hole/cut off the running lane and make the tackle on a run or drop into coverage on a pass play. The WOLB is mostly a pass rusher playing on the line and being on the side without the extra blocker, he has to get past the T (who should be occupied by the DE) and/or a RB or FB and get to the Q. But, obviously not all running plays go to the strong side and players on offense go in motion a lot, just because a TE is on one side when they line up doesnt mean hes gonna be there when they snap the ball so the WOLB needs to be able to diagnose and stop a run play or drop into coverage when he has to. So basically what Im saying is I always thought the SOLB was more of a traditional LB and that the WOLB was more a pass rusher and thats where most of these DE/OLB conversion guys end up. Not saying thats the way it is but thats what I thought. Any info would be appreciated.

BTW, I know this has nothing to do with your post which you did a great job on.

by okcdolphinsfan on Mar 15, 2010 12:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

You pretty much got a good handle on the difference

they both need to be able to play run and rush the passer, but the SOLB needs to be a little bigger and more of a beast vs the run because most teams want to run to their strength. The weaksider is a primary pass rusher, and usually ends up being a force man in the run game as opposed to the SOLB who usually has to stack and shed a blocker.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

SOLB vs. WOLB

Demarcus Ware would be considered a WOLB, correct? Whichever it is, he’s widely considered the best in the NFL at his position. Bill Parcells drafted Demarcus 11th overall, projected 2nd rounder. Exciting to consider what Mr. Parcells will do, isn’t it?

by BigBenky on Mar 15, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Draft

There’s no way I take Williams at 12, he’s just not that good. I believe the signing of Dansby gave us great flexibility in this draft, I believe that’s one of the main reasons we signed him. The pressure is now off to take McClain and we can now focus on the best player that’s available to us. Don’t discount the possibility of CJ Spiller, he’s the most dynamic player in this draft, regardless of position. I have no faith that Ronnie Brown can complete a season anymore. In my mind Spiller has the talent of a Chris Johnson, if we pass him up he’ll go be a star for someone else. This is perhaps the deepest draft ever, we can get LB, NT, and WR help later, but you won’t find a game changer like Spiller later. Having said all this I don’t think Tuna will make that pick. He’ll probably go LB at 12, and I really couldn’t argue with him. Another possible scenario to look for. If Dez Bryant is there at 12 don’t be shocked if NE is ringing our phone off the hook, here’s the logic. They have 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, I’m sure they’re not crazy about negotiating 5 different contracts. Wes Welker is coming off of ACL and rotator cuff surgeries. Moss is turning 34 and has already stated this is his last year in NE. Parcells isn’t high on WRs in the 1st round, especially diva’s like Bryant. I could easily see NE giving us the higher of the 2 1st rounders and throwing in one of the 2nd rounders to make a deal. This could really work for both teams. Tom Brady gets a prime WR to finish out his career with. We get a player with that 1st that we might have taken at 12 anyway and get the extra pick in the 2nd to still pick up a quality WR, there’s going to be several there. Bellichek and Parcells are two guys secure enough in their jobs not to worry about the old "don’t make trades in your own division’ thing. I believe they both always do what’s best for their teams and don’t worry about anyone else. I believe this situation is a trade waiting to happen. Just a thought.

by Biggest Dolphin Fan on Mar 15, 2010 3:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Go with the first option

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by Kdog92 on Mar 15, 2010 9:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice POST Nicky...

I totally VOTE FOR POSITIONAL VALUE as a draft strategy….when the CAP returns next year – and years down the road – you can’t have a HUGE portion tied up in “less valued” positions – LIKE SAFETY for one. QB, LT,OLB, DE, RB, WR – If you have real talent at these positions – you probably have a winner… MLB NT would be next…

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by 62Lou on Mar 15, 2010 9:43 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that positional value really only works for you if two things happen.

1, you are picking in the top 5, where the contracts are massive.
2, the talent pool matches up with the value positions. No reason to reach for a top 20 guy (Tyson Jackson) in the top 5 because he’s the top-rated guy at a High-Value position, for instance. But, if there’s a Mario Williams, and you don’t already have a stud at DE, you take him, because you want to pay a DE that big contract before you pay the WR or RB…

With us, picking at 12, the contract isn’t going to be out of line for one of the less-valued positions, like a safety or RB (Denver took a RB at 12 last season), so it’s not imperative to stick to this strategy where we are picking. I also think that ILB and NT are much more important to a team running a 3-4 defense than a DE, RB, or WR, but that doesn’t mean you automatically draft one of those positions no matter what.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

good breakdown Nicky

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by Patssuck456 on Mar 15, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Good read Nicky, rec'd!

Some good insight on the different draft strategies that the teams employ and what we might do with each of them.

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by Chupathingy on Mar 15, 2010 11:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Good Post Nicky

Just have some problems with the OLB/DEs you listed. Derrick Morgan does not fit us. NFL Fans of 3-4 teams: don’t get your hopes up. Morgan really struggles when dropping into coverage. He is most comfortable with his hand in the ground. Pierre-Paul I don’t see Parcells drafting a 1 year wonder.

I like Dan Williams but trading down for an extra 3rd rounder and going Earl Thomas is probably the best option out there. Especially taking in the fact that Cam Thomas can be had in the second. Eric Norwood in the 3rd is one of the best OLB options for us. He does what our current OLBs can’t. Thats set the edge against the run and drop in coverage.

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by troynuke on Mar 15, 2010 11:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I've been waiting for this subject for a long time...

I was actually gonna email you personally, cause I figured you knew, and I’ve been wanting to learn how the “boards” worked for teams… and viola! it’s here!

Looking back at Miami’s picks with the Trifecta, it’s tough to judge their strategy because I think it depends on what number they draft at. In 2008, Jake Long was BPA and Positional Value(PV), though this could lean more to PV. Definetly PV in picks thereafter.

Then there was Vontae Davis for Miami’s first pick in 2009. I believe he was Need-Based. It’s really difficult to judge what Miami was doing after that with Pat White, Sean Smith and Patrick Turner. There seemed to have been a combined strategy based on available player.

Is NT a PV, if so, how high? I see QB, LT and DE/RushOLB as the first three, but where do the rest fall in ranking order in a PV strategy?

I goooooo you…

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by Alpha6 on Mar 15, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice Summary Alpha!

Jake Long was BPA for the Trifecta and I agree with that pick.

Vontae Davis was a Need Based pick and I hate those type of picks in the 1st round. Need Based picks in round #1 tend to be reaches and therefore busts. That is why I hope they don’t draft a NT with #12, because it will be entirely a Need Based pick, a reach (3rd best DT in the draft), and most likely a bust.

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by ct1361 on Mar 15, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Vontae may have been a mix of Need and BPA

because he was supposed to be the top CB in that draft, and fell to 25 because of so-called “character issues.”

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it's great when two strategies come together like they did in the Vontae selection...

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by Alpha6 on Mar 15, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks... I too think NT is not there at #12...

… maybe Terrell Troup in the third, and if not then, a sixth, seventh or FA pick up would be fine with me.

Nice to know and have coaches on the blog… Nicky and you.

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by Alpha6 on Mar 15, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

As far as positional value for us..

I think NT would fall right behind the SOLB, either at 4, or behind RT at 5. Both tackles are up there for us (as evidenced by the contracts) because we A) like to run the rock, and B) like to use the TE’s in the passing game, meaning both tackles are on islands blocking DE’s or OLB’s. So they are both very important.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see... so you're right on with the BPA and PV names for picks in each strategy...

So judging on last two drafts, the Dolphins pick BPA as their strategy in round one… couple this with Stockpiling and Drafting for the future, and we have ourselves C.J. Spiller!!!!!!!!

Wheeew, I’m done.

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by Alpha6 on Mar 15, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol well said

This a 3-part series that will, quite elaborately, endorse Spiller hahahaha

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

great stuff, if I could rec part 2 and 3 already I would

I love when I find more interesting stuff on the Phinsider in a day then I do in a month on espn.

Go get Suh if at all possible.

by special agent wildcat on Mar 15, 2010 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

lol that could be the best endorsement of anything I've ever written

thanks lol

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see a problem with both of these.

1. Detroit took who they thought to be the number 1 player over all, and then drafting who they had ranked as their next best player. They only won 2 games. Granted the year before they went 0-16, but the phylosiphy did not work. They took a TE with the 20th over all, when they should have taken Michael Oher. That would have made their team better rather then get Stafford sacked 24 times in his ten games, and getting him hurt. A QB is only as good as his O-line. Obviously QB’s can cause sacks, but they can’t throw when they are on their backs. Taking the best available is always unsure because who knows who really is the best?
2. Position Value, drafting a spot on what you as an organization thinks about the postion is not good. In a 4-3 a DE is invalubale, teams like the Giants, and Indy have two great DE it helps to pay those guys, where as in a 3-4 we rely on the LB to create the sacks and the turnovers. A DE unless they are going to convert to OLB is not worth us drafting in the first round. A guy like Brian Cushing, or Clay Mathews would be worht a 12th overall pick. The Chiefs made the wrong pick as of now, they need to solidify the line to Cassel can stay upright.
Those are the type of players you are looking for, the TExans did alot better, by adding a probowl rookie OLB to the mix. Green Bay went from top ten to the playoffs by adding good rookie talents like Mathews to the mix. Dolphins need to add the best player for the value, if that is KIndle, Grahmn, Thomas, Mays, or Dan Williams. The Dolphins have holes, and the best why to fill them with talent is taking the best player to fill the hole. I feel they did that in 2008 with Long, 2007 nothing, last year good picks with the CB. Now just make the right move again.

by Sloppy on Mar 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT reply actions  

ok..

1 – Detroit is in a looong rebuilding process, they have very little talent on that team, and that is why they went mostly BPA in the draft, to try and bring in as many talented guys, regardless of position. You aren’t supposed to go 0-16, have one draft, and be awesome. Cmon now..

2 – The Cheifs may have made the wrong pick, but they stuck to that draft strategy. I never said it was a good pick, just explained why they made that pick. And DE is one of the high-value positions for a 4-3 team. That translates to the SOLB in a 3-4 team, which is why I listed Morgan and JPP, two of the highest-rated SOLB conversion prospects in the draft.

I don’t know where you see a problem, both the Lions selections and the Cheifs strategy fit into what I was describing.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

well OK...

1) your not supposed to go 1-15 have one draft & be awsum. Cmon now
2) Next year 11-5 then fall on one face the very next year?
       What Happened to my party at the ice cold frezzy park or whatever name it is?

by wild zion beaver on Mar 15, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah that was a very fluky year

Brady gets hurt after 6 minutes, taking down the top dog in the division. A veteran QB falls into our laps, then has the best season of his career. We play the easiest schedule in football. 11-5 wasn’t supposed to happen, that’s why it was so special.

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by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

great post buddy. i like situation #1 best. wouldn't hate some Berry in the 305 and if Spiller was a consolation, can't complain.

I’ll be interested to see part III, in particular.

On an unrelated note: Whuddup with El Heat eh? 6 home wins in a row, 3 game streak, 7th seed.

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by chrislucas on Mar 15, 2010 7:02 PM EDT reply actions  

we are just dominating a little to show off for LeBron lol

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Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
Piloting the Lead Chopper in the CJ "the Thriller" Spiller SpillWagon Helicopter Fleet

by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 15, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

and Chris Bosh

since he hates Toronto.

Wade-James-Bosh delicious

Currently one of three pilots for the new and improved SpillWagon fleet of Chinook’s.
Pre-order your boarding pass for the "Draft LaRon Byrd in 2011" newly procured Boeing 747-200B (formerly Air Force One) now!
In case you weren't already aware, it is indeed all about The U.
"opps i just grabed sum wood & started nawing" --WZB (CKC 2/2/10)

by chrislucas on Mar 16, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

i spoke too soon :(

damn spurs

Currently one of three pilots for the new and improved SpillWagon fleet of Chinook’s.
Pre-order your boarding pass for the "Draft LaRon Byrd in 2011" newly procured Boeing 747-200B (formerly Air Force One) now!
In case you weren't already aware, it is indeed all about The U.
"opps i just grabed sum wood & started nawing" --WZB (CKC 2/2/10)

by chrislucas on Mar 16, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice breakdown!

Love the way you put it all into context.

Just curious though, no Dez in the BPA scenario?

Earl, Demaryias and Cam. Thomas-fecta baby.

It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. ~ John Wooden

by smahtaz on Mar 16, 2010 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

How do we arrive at who we think is the BPA??

     I know that the trifecta spends weeks looking at all the different prospects and has arguments between them to try to figure out their draft board. From that I think it is safe to say that they have determined who is the best player available. However, how can we as fans judge a player to be the best player available given players who are playing completely different positions?

by Jason Scott_90 on Mar 17, 2010 8:46 AM EDT reply actions  

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