A Bold Prediction for Cameron Wake Revisited

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 2:44 AM EST

Well, it has happened. Cameron Wake defied the odds and made the pro bowl. And well deserved, too. He was by far the best part of the season for me. Cameron Wake is the best pass rusher in the NFL. And in the discussion for best defensive player in the NFL.

So it is time to revisit the original BOLD PREDICTION thread. That thread no longer accepts comments, but it can be found under the "most popular" tab.

Or you can just click HERE .

It seems unthinkable now, but last year at this time most people (not necessarily on Phinsider, just in general) thought Wake was a limited, one-dimensional player, if they thought about him at all. That wouldn't be a problem if one of those people wasn't our head coach. But alas, 'twas. Sparano criminally underused Wake last year, not only preferring the god-awful Joey Porter, but even giving Charlie Anderson as many snaps as Wake.

Sparano's excuses were lame (and clearly untrue) even then, and now they just look absurd. Of all the problems people have with Sparano's choices in strategy or personnel or whatever, I feel that his inability or refusal to recognize Wake's ability is possibly the most damning indictment of his coaching skill.

More after the jump.

I am not particularly a Sparano hater (I feel we could easily have a worse coach as well as better), but his refusal to play Wake last year frustrated the bejesus out of me. And please, don't repeat his press confernce hogwash as fact. It was nonsense and he knew it. Or if he didn't, maybe we couldn't have worse). Wake was quite good against the run last year (a billion times better than Porter) which was the main excuse given, and he also did fine in coverage in very limited opportunities. (See the above thread for more on that.)There is no legitimate excuse for not playing Wake last year and, frankly, it is troubling that this regime did not do so. It has to make you wonder who else we have ignored that deserves more playing time.

But back to Wake... he has been a monster. So much so that teams routinely choose to test our secondary rather than try and contain him. He has drawn more holding calls than any Dolphin I have ever seen (and deserved many, many more - there were games when he was held on almost every passing play. Some games he didn't get the call until he was literally past the defender and being dragged backwards.) He was routinely double-teamed and forced teams to alter their game plans.

I think the statistics from the first third are really interesting now with the benefit of hindsight, particularly the Pro Football Focus stuff and the SACKseer stuff from Football Outsiders. I will be analyzing pass rushers in the draft with a close eye to that formula from now on.

At any rate, congratulations Mr. Wake! Well, well earned.

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

Tweet Comment 39 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I hope this isn't seen as overly self-congratulatory

I am a little proud of the prediction – I went out on a limb and I don’t do that all that often. But at the end of the day, it’s just an internet prediction, and there are no shortages of those.

But the main points are to give praise to Wake and to take the analysis in the original post and examine why it was clear to others and many of us and not to our coaching staff.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 2:59 AM EST reply actions

sparano was afraid of porter

That’s why he didn’t play wake that much.

by thewildcat23 on Dec 29, 2010 7:07 AM EST reply actions

yea he was a leader.

Hard to punish the leader. It could tear a locker room apart. (porter)

The Charlie Anderson thing i don’t get. W/E its in the past now

Kacy Rodgers Our D-Line Coach. Got to give him some credit.
Andrew Luck or Ryan Mallett 1st Round. Make it Happen. No excuses.
Rusty Smith! (Titans future qb)

by 54 on Dec 29, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

I hear you

And normally I would agree.

But remember that last year Porter himself was the one tearing the locker room apart. Refusing to come off the field for JT on third downs, etc.

Eventually they even had to bench Porter, which shows how far his status as a leader had fallen.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think you are right.

Half afraid and half hero-worship.

But all misguided.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

Wake is one of my favorite current players.

I’m just sad that he is doing all this at 28 instead of 24. Oh well, at least we will have him for the next 4 years or so.

Also, to your point of who we aren’t playing that deserves more time. I think Lex Hilliard. I don’t understand all the “he obviously isn’t a #1 back” on this website. People are entitled to their opinions, as am I. I don’t think he is an Arian Foster or anything, but I think he could be a great back if given the chance. He showed a lot of skill last year.

Dolphins and Gators baby!

by gatorfin on Dec 29, 2010 7:41 AM EST reply actions

What were the (NY GIANT'S) thinking, letting this MAN go to the CFL?

wopper "the king" computer
We often look rite past the positive's cuz the negative's-r-so hard they dominate!

by wild zion beaver on Dec 30, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

Thank Nolan, too.

No doubt he saw Wake’s potential.

I am suspending all Bandwagon licenses until 4 PM EST Jan 3, 2011.
Nobody can get the truth out of me because even I don't know what it is. I keep myself in a constant state of utter confusion. -- Col. Flagg

by Tunaflipper on Dec 29, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions

This^

Makes you wonder what the coaching staff was thinking last year huh?

"Townes Van Zandt is the best songwriter in the whole world and I'll stand on Bob Dylan's coffee table in my cowboy boots and say that."-Steve Earle
"I'd rather be a dead Gram Parsons than a live Garth Brooks"-Kinky Friedman
Apple has a new anti-sexting feature. Brett Favre, you going to want to get the Android!

by texascowpunk on Dec 29, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Actually they played him correctly last year.

He was a liability in the running game last year, which was why he was used only on passing downs. He’s improved upon that greatly this year, which is why he’s gotten the playing time he’s gotten. The only thing I’d like to see him improve upon is his screen recognition, other than that he’s erased all the doubts I had about him.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry, but that is simply not true at all.

Read the original post. He was absolutely NOT a liability in the running game. He was literally ten times better against the run than Porter.

People keep repeating things coaches say as fact. Coaches lie all the time.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

I don't need to read the original post, although I have.

I saw him play last year. I’m not basing what I’m saying off just what the coaches said. Scouting reports and training camp reports said the same thing. There were two main reasons Wake only saw action during passing situations.

1. Jason Taylor (better against the run as he was the SLB)
2. Joey Porter (better rushing the pass as he was the WLB)

You may not agree with it, but both of them were the better picks as every down OLB last year while Wake got up to speed on the NFL game. Nor would any coach in their right mind bench a guy (Porter) who just came off a 17.5 sack season. At least not until they did try to towards the end of last year. Not to mention you’re basing your assumption that he would have been better than Porter against the run off of 30 rushing plays after the fact. The decision to play him in limited situations was decided in training camp based on his performance. To say they used him wrong now is simply hindsight.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry, you're wrong on this one.

Over a sixth of his plays were rushing plays and he was was league average.Porter, on the other hand, was abysmal.

Additionally, Porter sucked early and often and Wake excelled early and often. Your assertion that Porter was better rushing the pass is absolutely unsupportable.

Not to mention that Wake’s playing time was also given to Charlie Anderson. Wake’s playing time did not suffer because of Taylor. His playing time was given to Anderson and Porter. No one is arguing that Taylor wasn’t great against the run.

And, honestly, your accusation of hindsight doesn’t really hold water when we’re talking about observations I made last season and a prediction I made in April.

I don’t need you to jump and down and throw me a party for being right, but saying I’m using hindsight when I made the observations during last season and the prediction in APRIL is just silly.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

You do know what hindsight is right?

You based your argument of them not using him right last year based on the stats they accumulated at the end of the year. That’s exactly what hindsight is.

So my assertion that Joey Porter was a better pass rusher at the start of 2009 after he had just posted 17.5 sacks the previous year, and Wake had a grand total of 0 sacks in the NFL is absolutely unsupportable? I think the 17.5 vs 0 is a very supportive argument for any coach.

Yes, Wake did start very well. But so did Porter when he wasn’t out due to injury. Check the stats. Wake had 4.5 sacks in his first 7 games, and only one sack his last 6 games. Porter had 2.5 sacks over the first 9 weeks only playing in 5 of those games, then 6.5 sacks over the last 7 weeks.

Over a sixth of his plays were rushing plays

So he was slightly below average on 30 rushing plays, and the coaching staff was supposed to know this how exactly? Especially since most of the runs Wake saw were probably draws from 3rd and long situations. Once again you’re using hindsight as a reasoning for them to have played a rookie over an 11 year vet.

And last but not least, where on earth are you getting this 7 sack figure from? Every site I’ve gone to shows 5.5? Can you explain the 1.5 sacks you’ve seem to have given him?

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Your wrong!

by texascowpunk on Dec 29, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

If I'm wrong, then your grammar is correct.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

LOL You are correct. My bad. Besides I did not even read the argument

just felt like messing with you.

by texascowpunk on Dec 29, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

I know, I just couldn't resist poking back.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough.

by texascowpunk on Dec 29, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

Your problem is that you made a bad argument and are continuing to argue it instead of letting go

1. I think you are the one that needs to look up hindsight. If I make observations while it is happening, that is not hindsight. If I make predictions for 2010 based on 2009, that is not hindsight. In fact, it is the opposite.

And the stats for last year didn’t happen in a vacuum, magically appearing at the end of the season. They were accumulated in a pattern of Wake outperforming Porter by a mile and still spending most of his time on the bench.

2. You said Porter was a better pass rusher. The truth is that Joey Porter WAS, prior to 2009, a good pass rusher. That says absolutely nothing about whether he was a better pass rusher than Wake from then on. That’s like saying Pat White is a better quarterback than Andrew Luck, so if a team was in a position to choose which one to play they should play White. Ridiculous.

If we followed that logic we never would have started Jake Long, because other left tackles had experience.

3. Your Porter vs. Wake stats are absurd. Look at sacks per snap, at the very least. Wake got 167 snaps. Porter got 755. And you are trying to compare total sacks? Come on.

4. You said "So he was slightly below average on 30 rushing plays, and the coaching staff was supposed to know this how exactly?

Um… watching the game? Watching Porter blow running play after running play and Wake hold his own in his “alleged” area of weakness?

Being a decent coach, maybe?

5. Again with the “hindsight.” I really am beginning to believe you don’t know what that means. I watch Wake on running plays. Wake does fine. Porter sucks. I point this out using facts. You call facts “hindsight.” I was screaming for Wake all season last year. All of this is the opposite of hindsight.

6. Stats come from Pro Football Focus, which, unlike the NFL, grades out every single play.

Lastly, your logic amounts to this: coaches can do no wrong, we should trust them. Any proof of them having done something wrong amounts to hindsight, for some unknown reason.

I mean, dude, I go out on a limb in APRIL – before training camp even started – saying that Wake was so good he is going to be a pro bowler THIS year and you really come on here and say that my evaluation of Wake is hindsight and no one could have known? Give me a break.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

Ok, obviously you're confused about what I'm referring to.

Your argument was that the coaches misused Wake last year, and you based that off of what he did last year. That is called hindsight. If the coaches new he would play as well as he did in those limited snaps, they might have very well played him more than Porter. But the fact remains that Porter was coming off a 17.5 sack season and was an 11 year veteran. No coach in the entire NFL is going to play what is essentially a rookie over an 11 year veteran coming off a 17.5 sack season. I don’t see how you can’t comprehend this?

You’re seriously going to use Long and Pat White as examples? Wake wasn’t even an NFL draft pick. Long was drafted #1 overall, completely different circumstances, and Pat White was a 2nd round draft pick and completely sucked in two years and you’re going to compare him to a guy who’s the consensus #1 pick this year? Nice comparisons.

You say look at sacks per snap. Ok, then compare just their pass rushing snaps, not total snaps. Of course it’s going to kill Porters ratio because he had so many more rushing plays than Wake did. That’s like saying a QB who completed 68% of his passes in 200 throws is better than the QB who completed 62% in 2000 throws.

I’m sorry but PFF is wrong in regards to Wake’s sack total. Cause according to the Elias Sports bureau and Stats LLC which record all stats for the NFL for historical purposes Wake only had 5.5. But then again the NFL doesn’t record any stats, the two agencies I listed above are contracted out to do it for them independently for every individual game, and every individual snap. Grading isn’t in their contract. But we’re not talking about grading, we’re talking about a solid stat.

I have never argued against the fact you predicted he would be a pro bowler. Congrats for you on making such a bold prediction. You want a cookie? This had everything to do with your wild assertion that the coaches misused Wake last year, and your imagined perception that the coaches should have seen Wake was so much better than Porter based on limited snaps in games. Then completely disregarding the evaluations the coaches made during training camp and practice as lies based on zero credible evidence other than your own misguided opinions based on production after the fact. I’m sorry, but it was you who made the bad argument. Unfortunately it seems no amount of explanation is going to fix that.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 30, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Agree with you on screen recognition, by the way.

Although given how poorly the safeties played the screen, I’m not sure how many times he looked bad simply because he was the closest to the play, even when he shouldn’t have been.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

His biggest problem is he gets tunnel vision when rushing the pasher.

He has to be aware of the play developing around him, especially when RBs chip block him. One of the best tell tale signs of a screen is the effort at which the OL/RB try to NOT block you. Jason Taylor was a master at disrupting screen plays.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

I've noticed that if the QB gets close to the LoS

Wake will abandon his short assignment, and charge the QB, leading to an easy toss over his head to the formerly covered player. Typically nets the offense a first down.

"Those without knees kneel before no man"
Running the "Dan Mullen in Miami" Bandwagon
Merry Christmas, if that's your thing. Or if that's not your thing, Merry Excuse To Eat Chinese Food And Go To A Casino.

by Farorefox on Dec 29, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions

Depending on the distance to go for the first down.....

That will typically get any LB. If it’s a short distance it’s basically a no win situation for a LB. Stick with your assignment and let the QB run for the first down, or go after the QB and hope somebody picks up your assignment.

Now if it’s a longer distance, than the LB has to stay disciplined with their assignment at least till after the QB passes the LoS. But to also stay between the QB and your assignment blocking the passing lane and to put yourself into position to pursue the QB when/if he passes the LoS.

I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.

by luvs2drnk on Dec 29, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

this^

-Pulse of the Maggots P.o.t.M. The "Font" Nazi - Alpha6
The "pm striker king"- WZB The "reply" Nazi -Aplha6
Leader of Sparano for RedZone Play Caller and Fire Dave DeGuglielmo Bandwagon
"Give me a minute and I'll change your mind. Give me a bullet and I'll change your life" -Gematria - Slipknot - All Hope Is Gone

by PotM on Dec 31, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

Wake deserved his Probowl and if you predicted that props to you.

But Wake himself has said he has learned alot since last year, so how can you say he was ready last year when Wake has said differently earlier this season.

by scorp on Dec 29, 2010 5:38 PM EST reply actions

He was just saying the right thing.... what he is suppposed to say.

Every player should get better every year, at least until they start getting old. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t ready.

Facts are facts, and he proved early last year that he was ready. The tape doesn’t lie.

Keep in mind that ready in this context means “better than Porter.” And he was better than Porter in almost every way last year.

by notamarin on Dec 29, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's time that we establish that Wake's probowl award is because of me.

My fanpost alerting calling to arms our Phinsider nation to vote multiple times pushed him over the edge.
So not, your prediction came to fore by my grace and quick thinking.

by Tunaflipper on Dec 30, 2010 6:17 PM EST reply actions