ESPN: The Magazine - NFL Preview 2009

I, as a fan of the Miami Dolphins, enjoy the fact that I received ESPN: The Magazine's 2009 NFL Preview issue on the exact same day as our other 2009 preview: Preseason Game 3, Miami at Tampa Bay.

Since my fellow Dolphins fans share all knowledge, insight, and information they find regarding our beloved team, I have decided to share the wealth back. I will post, as best I can, the analysis provided within this magazine to you all.

But first, I read a couple of interesting tid-bits in the pages preceding..

Page 58: insider SEEING IS BELIEVING

KC Joyner introduces his metric system known as ROBIN (results-oriented binary metric system) and explains what it entails. Detailed tape review is performed on every run block at the point of attack. Offensive linemen receive one of two grades: a win (said block results in a "viable running lane") or a loss (a roadblock is put up by the defender of said offensive lineman). Wins and losses are put together by each individual lineman to calculate POA (point-of-attack) win%.

Here are Joyner's best and worst offensive linemen in the NFL in three specific categories (overall, pull blocks, second-to-third level blocks):

BEST-OVERALL (Min. 50 POA Attempts)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Nick Mangold NYJ, C, 94.3%
2. Stephen Neal NE, RG, 94.0%
3. Marshal Yanda BAL, RG, 93.0%
4. Mike Goff SD, RG, 92.6%
5. Todd Weiner ATL, LT, 92.3%

WORST-OVERALL (Min. 50 POA Attempts)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 70.7%
2. Lyle Sendlein ARI, C, 71.3%
3. Levi Jones CIN, LT, 72.0%
4. Andy Alleman MIA, LG, 73.1%
5. Tony Moll GB, RG/RT, 73.5%

BEST-PULL BLOCKS (Min. 32 Pulls)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Justin Smiley MIA, LG, 100.0%
2. Ryan Clady DEN, LT, 100.0%
3. Mike Goff SD, RG, 95.6%
4. Kris Dielman SD, LG, 94.7%
5. Rich Seubert NYG, LG, 93.4%

WORST-PULL BLOCKS (Min. 32 Pulls)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Mike Pollack IND, RG, 67.7%
2. Mike Wahle SEA, LG, 69.6%
3. Eugene Amano TEN, LG, 72.4%
4. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 72.7%
5. Chilo Rachal SF, RG, 73.7%

BEST-SECOND-TO-THIRD-LEVEL-BLOCKS (Min. 16 Blocks)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Pete Kendall Was, LG, 96.7%
2. Rich Sebuert NYG, LG, 94.4%
3. Casey Wiegmann DEN, C, 91.7%
4. Randy Thomas WAS, RG, 90.5%
5. Logan Mankins NE, LG, 90.0%

WORST-SECOND-TO-THIRD-LEVEL-BLOCKS (Min. 16 Blocks)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Lyle Sendlein ARI, C, 43.8%
2. Anthony Herrera MIN, RG, 52.4%
3. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 52.9%
4. Eugene Amano TEN, LG, 58.8%
5. Eric Steinbach CLE, LG, 63.2%

I brought this page up specifically to point out both Andy Alleman and Justin Smiley; Alleman was one of the five worst offensive linemen in the league last season when it came to winning the point of attack. In stark contrast, the original starter, Justin Smiley, was the best (OK, tied for the best) pulling lineman in the league at a perfect 100.0% POA win%. If he can stay healthy and play to last season's ability (and, additionally, if Donald Thomas adds his name to this list by season's end), we have the most dominant guards in the league at the point of attack. At least, on pulls. Running lanes, here we come.

While we're on this subject, I would like to point out that ANY pick we receive from Kansas City for Alleman et al. will be a steal based off of this information. The fact that it must be, at the very least, a sixth round pick -- well, that's just highway robbery.

Page 92: KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

Joyner is back once again. This time, he uses his scientific analysis to list the five worst quarterbacks in the league on bad-decision rate. BD% is merely BD (bad decisions, or a throw which results in a pick or a near-pick) / ATT (passing attempts). What I find funny is that Jay Cutler tops this list in 1,263 pass attempts in Denver. What I find completely lacking of comedic value (yet intriguing because of how ironic it is) is who makes this list at #3 (technically, tied for #2 except for a difference in attempt volume):

QUARTERBACK, ATT, BD, BD%
1. Jay Cutler DEN/CHI, 1,263, 63, 5.0%
2. Ben Roethlisberger PIT, 1,363, 44, 3.2%
3. Chad Pennington NYJ/MIA, 1,244, 40, 3.2%
4. Matt Hasselbeck SEA, 1,168, 37, 3.2%
5. Jon Kitna DET/DAL, 1,320, 40, 3.0%

It's quite obvious why I bring this up. Yes, Pennington's attempts include those from previous years in New York, but was our offense last season honestly considered better than any of the offenses Chad Pennington quarterbacked in the years involved in this calculation? Probably not. I find it rather ironic that our sure-thing, accurate, big-game leader of a quarterback is listed here, specifically at #3. I'm not here to bring up any arguments, or discussions, or QB debate. I'm simply reiterating the facts which Mr. Joyner so graciously calculated for our informative purposes.

Yet, on the other side of the coin, Ben Roethlisberger is the actual #2 and put up the exact same BD% as our starter. On top of that, the Steelers are said to have had the worst rushing attack by a Steelers Championship team in their history with one of the weakest offensive lines to have won the trophy. I won't make any absurd comparisons, but..

Page 95: KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

Joyner is the star of this blog posting with yet another mention. This time, the Football Scientist calculates the league's best YPA averages when the offensive line of said team does not blow a single block. He calls this scenario one which "levels the playing field for all backs". It also gives him a reason (legitimate or ridiculous) to call DeAngelo Williams better than Adrian Peterson (who ranks sixth on this list at 6.7 YPA). Minimum is set at 100 rushes (regardless of actual number of attempts with absolutely no blown blocks):

RUNNING BACK, ATT, YDS, YPA
1. Chris Johnson TEN, 143, 1,135, 7.9
2. DeAngelo Williams CAR, 173, 1,331, 7.7
3. Derrick Ward NYG, 118, 867, 7.3
4. Steve Slaton HOU, 152, 1,072, 7.1
5. Maurice Morris SEA, 68, 460, 6.8

This list may mean nothing on the surface. However, and I may be wrong to look at it this way, but I see this as a way to prove that we should not continue paying Ronnie Brown top five running back dollars. That does not mean I agree that we shouldn't pay him at the level we have been over the past handful of seasons, especially if he proves his relative lack of production truly was a result of poor offensive line play or injuries. It just means that it would make sense, in a business sense that is, not to re-sign him if we have to pay him to a level at which he does not produce (according to this measure, in the very least).

The fact that we have Patrick Cobbs (a Sparano favorite indeed) and Lex Hilliard waiting in the wings almost tells me that we won't pay him that type of money unless he were to take a Channing Crowder-esque pay-cut to stay, or absolutely dominates this season. Yes, Cobbs isn't suited to carry the ball more than 150 times in a season at most and Hilliard hasn't proven his consistency against top-tier defensive talent. Regardless, Parcells knows you can draft RB on the second day (see: Steve Slaton, #4 on this list), and it does not make sense to me that he would change his mind and pay Ronnie that heavily unless he were to prove, beyond reasonable doubt, that he is worth more to this team than his paycheck.

Ever the optimist/realist I am, I just don't see that happening.

Page 100: AFC EAST NFL Preview 2009

To start, the AFC East's Strength of Division DOVA is -8.7% (7th in the league). According to the double-asteriks at the bottom of the page, and I quote: "DVOA is a stat in which Football Outsiders analyzes a team's plays to determine how much better or worse that team is than an average NFL squad. So when the Jets have an opponents' DVOA of 4.0%, that means their competition is collectively 4.0% better than average."

What they said.

Here are three sections sure to rain on all of our collectively scheduled 2009 [victory] parades:

ENDS AND ODDS

TEAM, PROJECTED W-L, LIKELIHOOD OF: 0-3 WINS, 4-6 WINS, 7-8 WINS, 9-10 WINS, 11-PLUS WINS
1. Patriots, 11-5, 0%, 1%, 5%, 26%, 68%
2. Dolphins, 6-10, 8%, 46%, 29%, 15%, 2%
3. Jets, 6-10, 11%, 45%, 27%, 14%, 3%
4. Bills, 5-11, 19%, 55%, 18%, 7%, 1%

A), hahaha! How in the hell is it possible that the Jets have 3% greater chance of winning between 0-3 games than us, yet they have better odds of winning 11-plus? Ridiculous. The Patriots have a 1% chance of winning between 0-6 games, and a 6% chance of winning no more than eight. A 6% chance? Really? And on top of that, there's really a 2% chance that we win 11 or more games. Two per-cent. Two.

Football Outsiders' caption below Miami's projected W-L/%s:

No defense suffered fewer injuries in 2008, a fact which papered over the team's lack of depth. The Fins tried to remedy that problem by drafting corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. But can those rooks really set up against Terrell Owens and Randy Moss?

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but, it actually looks like there's a good chance they can. Shove that in your pipe and smoke it, Joyner.

Note: there is no B). I just felt like using A) to emphasize my enthusiasm.

STAYING HEALTHY

"The AFC East was virtually decided in 2008 by the Dolphins' remarkable health ..."

Can I call BS on this entire page yet? Sure, we ranked #1 in the league in games missed (on the positive side) by team starters, but come on. We won the division solely because of our health? It's a good thing I can't speak French, or I'd have to request that you excuse it.

TEAM, GAMES MISSED (BY STARTERS), LEAGUE RANK
1. Dolphins, 46, 1
2. Jets, 77, 9
3. Bills, 101, 15
4. Patriots, 186, 30

Taking an honest look at this list, I'm petrified. Numbers and averages always regress to the mean. Unless the mean was severely shifted in an extremely positive direction due entirely to Miami's grueling preseason training regimen, which, in all sincerity, I highly doubt, we're looking at a season which has great potential to see a lot of our starters missing a lot of games. I don't have to tell you the downside of that, or what it means for us.

SENDING OUT AN SOS

I won't beat the dead horse and display this list, but it's all about how our finishing finish in the division last year will come back to haunt us by giving us the most deadly strength of schedule in the league. Suffice to say, Football Outsiders hates us and our chances in 2009.

And now that you've read this (if you've made it this far), let's just sit back, relax, and watch - on national television - as the Miami Dolphins take their next step toward proving that statistics do not (and will not) define football in every aspect of the game. Let's go, Miami!