Predicting the Wins: Miami Dolphins

Predicting how many wins your favorite NFL team will accumulate in their respective upcoming season has been a pastime for die hard fans of the sport for as long as I can remember. There is never an exact science to it, however.

However, before I go any further, this article isn't great. It's not something that should be taken as dogma. I'm not claiming to know any more than the rest of you, and any statistical derivations I produce are merely done as a light-hearted attempt to keep you all sane through this long and deathly boring offseason. Please do not bash my extremely crude use of statistics without taking that into account. I'm just having fun in a time where it's very difficult to do so for us Miami Dolphins fans.

As we all know, there are various factors that go into such predictions, and the slightest change in any of these factors can throw any prediction completely off. An injury to a team's minor or major player(s) can take games away from a team's potential record, whether the injury is short-lived or season-long. Any number of players can regress, or step up, and change the team's dynamic. The introduction of a new style of offense, or a new package (read: The WildCat) can completely turn a team's attack upside-down and give Defensive Coordinators nightmares, adding wins that were unexpected.

Needless to say, there are far too many angles to look at or factors to weigh in this process. ESPN's John Clayton highlights a few of his most basic, yet seemingly accurate "predictors" of success (or the opposite) in this well-written, very intriguing article. He notes that the Seattle Seahawks will bet he most "surprising" team based on his parameters, with the Chicago Bears (surprise, surprise) the runners-up and Cincinnati Bengals right behind in 3rd. Rounding out his top eight are the Green Bay Packers (4), Houston Texans (5), Washington Redskins (6), Buffalo Bills (7), and Cleveland Browns (8).

Interesting to note that the Bills are seventh in this list. Could it be the addition of Terrell Owens? Well, according to Clayton, that's a part of it:

7. Buffalo Bills: This one might be a surprise because I'm going against the formula. The Bills' .570 schedule is the sixth-hardest in the league. Whether they've played hard schedules or easy schedules, the Bills have finished 7-9 for three straight seasons. Their break is "non-common" non-division games against the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs, which are winnable. Plus, Terrell Owens should add scoring punch to their offense. He usually takes an offense to an average of 24.0 ppg or better because of his ability to catch touchdown passes. The Bills averaged 21.0 ppg last year. A two-point improvement could put them at 9-7.

Feasible. Likely? Perhaps. Terrell Owens on his own, to me, could very easily add those two extra games to their seemingly perennial 7-9 record. His being double-teamed alone (if defenses decide to) leaves Lee Evans one-on-one with a corner or safety, both of which he has the speed to beat. James Hardy is developing into a decent red zone option with his height, hands, and physicality, and there are a few semi-reliable options Buffalo has to pass to, rounding out what should be a very effective passing game. Throw in Marshawn Lynch (suspension or not) and an underrated back in Fred Jackson, and you have an offense that developing QB Trent Edwards should lead very well. I don't consider 9-7 out of the question at all, and that point about the non-common Cleveland and Kansas City games is a good one.

While this makes for a good read and perhaps even better debate, the Buffalo Bills are not the focus of this article. Our Miami Dolphins are.

Clayton himself does not actually predict how many wins he believes Miami will accumulate in the '09-'10 season, but using his relatively simple "formula", we can. My plan is to take their '08-'09 results and add or subtract wins according to the rules of each parameter. In true Phinsider fashion, we can follow this up with riveting debate and provide our own educated guesses (hopefully backed up with good reasoning rather than simple biased fandom).

First, let's outline the parameters that we are working with per Clayton's ESPN article:

If a schedule is .020 easier than the previous year, it gives a team a chance to add a win. If the schedule is .020 harder, it usually translates to a loss. The Panthers were coming off a 7-9 season in 2007 after playing a tough .523 schedule. Their projected strength of schedule for the 2008 season was .465, .058 easier. That pointed to a 2.9-game improvement, or about three more victories. In 2008, the Panthers exceeded even that projection: They were five games better than in 2007, finishing at 12-4.

What does this tell us? Well, using simple math, our 11-5 record from last season will turn into:

.594 - .465 = .129 / .020 = 6.45

We will round this down to 6 games; not because of any bias, but because we all learned in grade school that you round down any integer if the tenth spot is below a "5". Using that logic, our record dips from 11-5 to 5-11 following this first parameter. Don't worry, there are technically two more.

Next:

Offense means everything in projecting surprise teams. Usually a one-point increase in scoring can add a win for a team. That's one of the reasons you look for a team to be a surprise if it has a good quarterback who's coming back from a season in which he missed a bunch of games because of injuries. If a team hits on the right quarterback in free agency or the draft, that also works in projecting surprise teams. The Falcons hit on Matt Ryan last season. Their offense improved from 16.2 to 24.2 ppg. Their record went from 4-12 to 11-5, a seven-game improvement.

This is extremely difficult to project, however we do have some new angles to view this from. With a mere 21.6 points per game last season (21st in the NFL), Miami has a lot of room for improvement. Just how much? Well, this is really a very rough estimation, but let's look at it this way:

Miami amassed the 12th most yards in the league last season, right between San Diego (11th) and Dallas (13th). San Diego put up 27.4 points on the season, second in the league, while Dallas put up 22.6 points, 18th in the league. For the sake of argument, let's take the Chargers' points total and the Cowboys' and average the two to give us a relative range in which to figure our Dolphins could score:

27.4 + 22.6 = 50.0 / 2 = 25.0

So, let's ask if 25.0 points per game for this Miami offense is a feasible estimation. I personally view it as a rather high average, though an attainable one if Pat White works out as the WC QB and Chad Pennington has another strong season (or, if Henne comes in and comes on strong and a player like Ginn improves significantly because of it). Also, we may have a top five offensive line in the league; this should help generate scores out of the yards we accumulate.

It surprised me to see that we had posted the 21st ranked point total in the league considering how well we did in the yardage department. It would not, however, surprise me if we showed some consistency and put up the 12th highest yardage total once again this season. Give or take a few positions, of course. We have the quarterback to do it, and the offensive line to produce even more rushing yards even if CP10 regresses in the passing department. Or, if either Henne or White takes over as the signal caller.

What's different this season? We actually have the talent now to convert some of those yards into scores (or field goals into touchdowns). And, obviously it would be insane to assume we produce the same turnover differential, but our offense has stayed consistent enough and our coaching staff has preached discipline well enough to allow us to think we could come somewhat close.

Now, like I said a bit earlier, this projection is extremely rough. I believe the jump from 21.6 to 25.0 is a bit much, especially considering the team's propensity to pound-the-rock and the fact that we have the defense and starting QB (at the moment, at least) to play ball-control. So, making this projection even rougher, I've decided to average last year's PPG total with this article's previous 25.0 projected PPG:

21.6 + 25.0 = 46.6 / 2 = 23.3

Now, is 23.3 points per contest feasible for this offense? I think so, but that's my opinion. Considering our improved talent on both sides of the ball, and the potential for us to improve our WC play while hopefully adding a touchdown or two to last year's total based off kick or punt returns alone (we really lacked in that department last season), this total is one I feel comfortable sticking with. And now:

23.3 - 21.6 = 1.7

We will round this number, 1.7, up to 2 wins. Thank you, grade school teachers. Our record improves from an unfavorable 5-11 to a slightly better (yet still sub-par) 7-9. Of course, there is still room for improvement. Nobody knows how well our offense will do until it all happens, and it's still possible (if not likely) that we could, in fact, put up 25.0 or so points per game. I'm just not going to be overly-optimistic enough to actually predict such a generous average. This keeps my expectations slightly lower while giving us feasible room to improve.

Now I'm sure many of you would like to view that third and final (according to Clayton) parameter so we can hopefully add at least another win or two onto our projected total. So, here it is:

A new category in my database involves a team's out-of-division schedule. A year ago, I had the idea that most of the teams in the AFC East would improve because they played the AFC West and the NFC East. I thought most of the AFC East teams could end up 7-3 or better in non-division games. Only the New York Jets ruined that prediction with road losses in San Francisco and Oakland.

In 2009, the circuits to look at this season with decent chances to sport multiple teams with at least 7-3 records in non-division games are the NFC North and the AFC North. It's hard to project the Detroit Lions to have that type of success, but there is a chance that five or six of the teams in those two divisions combined could go 7-3 or better in non-division games.

What we can take from this is a bit more complex. It's entirely possible that we again go 4-2 against the AFC East. As the Jets and Patriots showed us last season, losing to "common" teams that should have been easy victories, it's just about impossible to predict how we'll fare against "common" opponents this season.

Because of this, I cannot put any additional wins onto our record based upon any formula or general "rule". At the same time, I cannot succumb to extreme biased fandom. I must stay cautiously optimistic, with an emphasis on the caution.

This obviously isn't how Vegas set the over/under at seven wins, but hell, I am not in the position to argue with their odds makers.

Look at it this way: we were 1-15 two seasons ago. If we can end this season 8-8, at worst, considering our schedule and the talent and competition that exists within our division, I'd say we were successful as hell. Yes, we were a little spoiled with last season's 11-5 finish, but we all know full well we aren't a perennial 11-5 team quite yet. Nor can we consider ourselves such with the obvious changing of the guard (or should I say quarterback) coming in a mere season, if not less. Does it make sense for us to stick with a quarterback that we know will not likely take us to the promised land if we are truly talented enough to go 11-5 (or better, perhaps slightly worse) with the most difficult schedule in the league? It might just be me, but no, it doesn't. Last season was an anomaly, one that gave us hope and brought excitement back. But let's not subject ourselves to expectations that should cause great injury to our Dolphins pride if they are not reached. I for one am aiming for 8-8 to be a successful season: if they surpass my expectations, I am truly grateful. Pennington had another great season, and we have a shot at the playoffs. If they do not, all that means is that we steal a draft pick and become poised to compete a season from now. It also means we likely get to see how Henne performs in somewhat-meaningful games.

Let me put it another way, one which will surely evoke argument (if not against me, then with each other): don't we almost want Miami to miss out on the playoffs so that we can begin to solve the long-term quarterback issue? If we hand the keys over to Henne with a few games left in the season, perhaps more than that, isn't that a positive? I know we're all searching for that quarterback to "succeed" Marino and bring us the Championship as soon as possible, but the mere fact that Sparano has already announced the quarterback switch tells us what we already know: Pennington won't be the guy to do it. Don't we, then, want to gauge the ability of our back-up and heir-apparent?

In all honesty, we might be worse off if we are more successful. We lose out on draft position, and Henne surely gets less experience.

Why did I even bring up Clayton's guidelines for predicting success in unexpected places, then? Well, I did so as to prove a point: statistics can only go so far in predicting success, but at the same time, they do provide a valuable structure in which to work with.

So, even though my ending estimation wasn't derived in a very clean way, it's one I'm fairly confident in: this team will win eight games in the 2009-10 season. If you want to know why I added one win onto the seven we "derived" earlier, it's because this team has something that deserves an additional one win, at the very least: a chip on its shoulder.

8-8. .500. Bash away.