The upgrade at center from Samson Satele to Jake Grove

by Matty I on Apr 21, 2009 11:30 AM EDT in News Comment 33 comments

Last week I highlighted an article by KC Joyner - also known as the football scientist - about whether or not the Dolphins really needed to draft a receiver early on in Saturday's draft. But this week, Joyner uses his metrics to try to explain exactly why the Dolphins gave up on center Samson Satele and signed Jake Grove.

So what does Joyner use for his analysis? He watched every snap that Satele played in 2008 and found that on 132 "point of attack" blocks - which are blocks when the ball carrier runs primarily behind him - Satele won 79.5% of the time (80% is what Joyner says is acceptable for offensive linemen) and the Dolphins gained an average of 5.39 yards on those plays. Those certainly aren't bad numbers.

So what gives? Joyner did some more analysis and here's what he learned:

After perusing his metrics a bit further, the answer became rather obvious: Satele can’t run-block the big nose tackles in the A.F.C. East. The Jets’ Kris Jenkins and the Patriots’ Vince Wilfork are the types of players who can take over games when faced with the right matchup, and Satele was one of those matchups last year.

In the sixteen POA runs Satele had against Jenkins, Dolphins runners gained only 48 yards (3.0 YPA). Satele also lost three of those battles, so his POA win percentage was only 81.3%, or just slightly higher than his overall mark. That sounds good, but it is also skewed by the fact that Satele received double-team help (either a combination block or a pure double-team block) against Jenkins 11 times. He lost two of the five single-block POA runs, and it was probably that 60.0% POA win total that told the Dolphins that they needed to make a move.

The numbers were worse for Satele against Wilfork, especially in their second matchup (i.e. not the game when the Wildcat was rolled out). In that contest, the two faced off on seven POA runs and Miami ballcarriers gained only 18 yards (2.6 YPA) on those plays. Wilfork also won three of those matchups, so Satele’s win percentage against him was a completely unacceptable 57.1%.

The good news for Dolphin fans, as Joyner points out, is that Jake Grove was particularly stout at the point of attack. He has a "point of attack" win percentage of 90.6%. Even more impressive, Grove was "asked to single-block (i.e. block without double-team help) on 67.5% of his runs."

And that is probably why the Dolphins decided to give up on Satele and brought aboard Jake Grove. While we can't assume that the front office has those exact numbers - because we don't know how much NFL teams use theese kinds of metrics - they definitely watch a ton of film. So they probably saw this on the film and were confident enough in what they had seen to make the swap at the center position.

Meanwhile, just as an aside, I want to point out that this is yet another reason why I don't think trading Ronnie Brown is a smart idea. This offensive line is going to be much improved in 2009 - assuming Justin Smiley's rehab goes well - and I believe he'll prove to be every bit as great as I (and many others) think he is. In fact, the Sun-Sentinel's Harvey Fialkov actually thinks the Dolphins will "re-up Brown before the season starts."

To be honest - that's exactly what I'm hoping for.

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Comments

If Grove stays on the field

then it may well be a significant upgrade. Granted, this is far from a given and that’s probably the one lingering concern some of us have with the move.

by Natalya on Apr 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You’re enjoying your day
Everything’s going your way
Then along comes Debbie Downer.

Always there to tell you ‘bout a new disease
A car accident or killer bees
You’ll beg her to spare you, “Debbie, Please!”
But you can’t stop Debbie Downer!

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Providing Sad Trombone notes to Phinsider for years now....

by Natalya on Apr 21, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

i’m just kidding you. you know i luv ya man!

;-)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ummm...

by Natalya on Apr 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"man"

by NumberSeven on Apr 21, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

golf clap

lol

by joel311 on Apr 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

well played

The Phinsider: SBN's Miami Dolphins blog

by Matty I on Apr 21, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i couldn't help it.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If last season was any indication

Grove should have a better chance of staying healthy in Miami. I have to believe that the low amount of injuries was due in part to our off season training program.

25th LB – REY MAUALUGA USC = 44th CB ALPHONSO SMITH WAKE FOREST
56th OLB LAWRENCE SIDBURY/RICHMOND 87TH OG- HERMAN JOHNSON LSU
4th WR – JOHNNY KNOX ABILENE CHRISTIAN 5th QB – NATE DAVIS BALL ST
6TH OLB – JASON WILLIAMS WESTERN IL 7TH NT - VAUGHN MARTIN WESTERN ONTARIO == 7TH CB - DON CAREY NORFORK ST

by ATS16 on Apr 21, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the money they spent for Grove

he should and better be an upgrade.

If he stays healthy, which this conditioning program may help with, these stats indicate he might be worth it.

by TunasMentor on Apr 21, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re-up brown

just get it done before its later down the line and becomes an issue

by CaliPhinsFan on Apr 21, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Grove

Great article. Over the weekend, NFL Network did a replay on the Jets vs Raiders. Jake Grove performed tremendously against Jenkins. This guy is a big upgrade on Satele plus we also were able to get a 6th and switch 4th round picks. Grove on several plays was able to kick out Jenkins and the Raider running backs got huge chunks of yards. Regarding Ronnie Brown and the idea of trading him is ridiculous. Our offensive line is going to be the best it has been in many years, especially in the running game. Ronnie and Ricky should have big years. In addition, there is not another back in the NFL who is more complete than Ronnie Brown. I am referring to running, catching, and blocking. Earlier in another posting when there was a discussion of trading for Anquan Boldin, someone mentioned trading Brown for Boldin. If that were to happen, then the Cardinals would be the favorite in the NFC. The Trifecta knows what they are doing and I am confident that we are going to be very happy after this weekend when they add more good football players.

by sundevil11 on Apr 21, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

Grove finally beginning to get some positive press. Glad to see it.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was on board with the signing from the start,

but I was a little perturbed that we lost Satele. With Satele being used as either a starting guard or a relief lineman, we had fantastic depth on the O-line. Still, we did get a pretty good deal in the trade.

by joel311 on Apr 21, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the picks we got as compensation

I can live with losing him as depth. I’m sure either the additional 6th or our improved 4th will go toward another lineman anyway..so whichever one we don’t use on a lineman, we still got better in some way.

We're all goin' down to the creek tonight; it's gonna be a gas! You're comin', right?

by Dave.Phuller on Apr 21, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, agreed.

Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.

by joel311 on Apr 21, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to play Devil's Advocate:

If you think Grove is going to be a superior run blocker, a Ronnie Brown trade makes more sense. Ricky Williams can handle being the primary carrier when we have great blocking up the middle (not only can he handle it, but he has more burst IMO), and Patrick Cobbs is an excellent blocking/receiving RB in those situational cases. If we can get a first and a conditional pick for Ronnie, we should probably take it.

by joel311 on Apr 21, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that actually makes sense.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scary right?

These debates have made me think, and I’ve actually started leaning toward the trade Ronnie side of the fence.

by joel311 on Apr 21, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Devil's Advocate

When the Rams were known as the “greatest show on turf” they had three wideouts: Issac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Az Hakim. Think of Patrick Cobbs like Az Hakim. They are terrific complementary players but they are not the main course.

by sundevil11 on Apr 21, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

Ronnie(bobby, ricky and mike…lol) will demand top cash or we’ll need to franchise him.

He is worht most right now. Trade him for a 1-3-5.

by Polephin on Apr 21, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well really the only good thing going for the raiders the past couple years was their running game

Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518

by Foy on Apr 21, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

3 draft picks for Ronnie Brown

Any GM who agrees to that is out of their mind and will be looking for a new job soon. Secondly, one of the reasons Ricky Williams left the first time is because Wannstedt gave him 25 plus carries a game and he did not want that kind of workload. That is also why Barry Sanders left. We have one of the best if not the best backfield in the NFL. Why would you want to weaken one of our biggest strengths. Thirdly, Parcells won two Super Bowls by running and defense. This is the first time he has had two exceptional running backs. At the Giants, he had Otis Anderson and with the Patriots and Jets, he had Curtis Martin. Every team in the league has figured out that you need two running backs because of possible injury and workload. We are fortunate to have two backs that can do everything. They both can run inside and outside, catch the ball out of the backfield, and block and they are both big backs to boot.
Another important thing to think about is that Ronnie is only 27 years old and has many years left unless he suffers a catrastrophic injury. When evaluating how long a running back will stay in the league, the most important stat is the number of carries not the number of years. That is why one of the first things that Parcells did was speaking with Ricky Williams and let him know that he and Brown would be able to share the work load.

by sundevil11 on Apr 21, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fialkov hit the nail on the head

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Apr 21, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think something hit Fialkov on the head

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 21, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sundevil couldnt of said it better man props!!!

by MF_34 on Apr 21, 2009 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like stats

but didn’t need them in this instance.

Watching Jenkins grab Satele and move him into one potential hole to close it off and then proceed to throw him aside,when he was through with him, and then make a tackle for a loss was all I needed to see.

Watching Grove stand Jenkins up and slide him out of the way to create a hole lets me know we now have a real Center..just hope he can stay healthy.

As far as Ronnie Brown goes, I think everyone knows how good and valuable he is and the only people who ever said he sucks were the Pats fans as they were filing out of Gillette…that being said, I would trade him for good picks that would benefit the team in the long run in a heartbeat, NOT a 3rd or a 4th or some other BS, but “good” picks.

by haildanhenningnow on Apr 22, 2009 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thumbs up.

Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.

by joel311 on Apr 22, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

head down.

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by finsxfactor on Apr 22, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs