ENOUGH!- Strength of Schedule, BLAH BLAH BLAH

With the 09 schedules set to be released this afternoon, I am writing in response to all the meaningless over-analysis of the "strength of schedule".  This silly statistic simply shows last year's collective win/loss ratio for opponents from the prior season.

Teams with success will generally have to play higher finishing teams in the following year. So... teams that finish higher, generally have "tougher" schedules. This does not diminish the fact that the teams with "tougher" schedules are already GOOD teams because they did something to earn these "tougher" schedules.

Over the last 4 years, has the preseason strength of schedule fared??... as expected.  Teams with harder schedules, were the better teams and fared well, while teams with weaker schedules, were the weker teams and generally could not take advantage of week schedules, or actually did with little positive results.

Then there are the few anomalies, teams that end up with easy schedules merely because of the fact that their division and/or conference is weak.



So based on the empirical data.....

Each year, teams with top 5 hardest schedules had a winning percentage of 55% while teams with the easiest schedules had a winning percentage of 47%.

That just tells me, better teams win more.  Minus a few outliers (Indy 07, Sea 06 with weak schedules and KC 07, Oak 07-08, and SF 07 with strong schedules), the model still holds true.

Of the hardest schedules since 2005: (22 teams)

10 playoff appearances: 5 Division Champions: 2 Conf. Champs, 1 SB Champ, 7 loosing records

Of the weakest schedules since 2005: (22 teams)

6 playoff appearances: 5 Division Champions: 1 Conf Champ, 1 SB Champ, 10 loosing records.



Actually, if you really want to gage the strength of your schedule. You need to compare your rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense to your selected opponents.  You must also factor in that there are some major differences from the prior years stats: free agents, coaching changes, diminishing player values, etc etc... (i.e. if your DEN and  ranked top 5 in passing and lost Cutler, then you shouldn't be getting much credibility going forward, depending on the replacement you'll need to drop that ranking considerablly)

I actually calculate a REAL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE for fantasy football because I want to know what to really expect what a position player is facing. I.E. Despite playing a "tough schedule", Miami and Ronnie Brown might be facing the worst ranked schedule against the run!!!!! That would mean that the Dolphins would have a VERY FAVORABLE SCHEDULE in leiu of all this jibber jabba....

I'll share the real Strength of Schedule sometime in late May, when FA comes to an end and we know which draft pics will likely play.





This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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