Apparently I'm a draft expert, too
So I'm reading through some mock drafts on Sunday morning when I come across this - a first round mock draft competition that is held among people considered "draft experts." It's hosted by "The Huddle Report" and includes the likes of some of the most well-known internet mock drafts on the net - including Charley Casserly, Clark Judge, Mel Kiper, Todd Mcshay, Don Banks, Scott Wright, Jay Glazer, Matt Mosley, and Vic Carruci, as well as some of the more well-known NFL Mock Draft websites.
The scoring of the mock drafts seems simple - you get 1 point for listing a player in your one round mock draft that gets drafted in the first round; and you get an additional 2 points if you correctly predict which team will select that player. Being the curious guy I am, I decided to score my own mock drafts from the past two seasons. And, apparently, I'm as much of a draft expert as any of the "professionals."
My final 2008 mock draft, which you can see here, graded out with a score of 50. Last year's winners, a guy from Fantasy Football Toolbox and a guy from The Huddle Report, scored a 45. That's right - yours truly would have won last year's one round mock draft competition.
My final 2007 mock draft, which you can see here, graded out with a score of 52. That score tied me for 3rd place with Jay Glazer and a guy from NFL Answers. Clark Judge was the '07 winner, with a score of 55.
So what's my point here? No - it's not just to toot my own horn (though that's a nice little perk). It's to point out that anybody - and I mean anybody - can put together an accurate 1st round mock draft. Just because somebody is on TV or is part of a large website doesn't mean they are "experts" - no matter what Mel Kiper would like you to believe. The bottom line is that most of these "draft experts" have no more knowledge than any of us. They just have access - access to game film, to agents, to coaches, and to players - that us in the general public do not.
Therefore, any time you read an "expert" mock draft, take that info with a grain of salt. They really don't have a better chance of being accurate with their predictions than you or I do.
Oh - and I have e-mailed the guys at The Huddle Report to try and take part in 2009's competition. However, right on their site, they proclaim:
This is not an open mock draft and not everyone can enter. To ensure the integrity of the ratings, we will only score mock drafts from established draft websites, publications and media outlets.
I sure hope I don't ruin the "integrity of the ratings." I hope my previous track record from '07 and '08 makes me "established" enough.
What a crock. If I do hear back, I will let you all know. But I'm not holding my breath.
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21 comments
Comments
We have faith in you
here kitty kitty kitty BANG!
by bryankstro on Mar 30, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
toot toot
…there’s one from me too matty…
Just one man's opinion.
The defending AFC Champions Miami Dolphins chose Marino with the 27th pick in the NFL draft.....
Founding member of the 2nd round draft of NT Ron Brace, 6'3", 330, benchx225:32 bandwagon
Founding member of the 3rd round draft of OG Herman Johnson, 6'7", 350, 36.5" arms bandwagon
by hwyatt3 on Mar 30, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats funny...
just because these guys consider themselves experts, they won’t let someone who out-predicts them the previous 2 years join there little competition… it cracks me up that these guys are legends in their own mind…Especially Kiper
by scbrandon on Mar 30, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It'll be the same thing
when even more “experts” pick which teams will make it to the Super Bowl come August.
No offense Matty, but this image comes to mind:

Keep the faith!
by Marima on Mar 30, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff Matty
I say it time and time again I have much respect for the so called guru’s who put the time and effort into scouting players etc. but I must be on the same wagon too,if anyone looks into it good enough then they can have some sucess as well.I for one take some time to study and it seems like I have some sucess at my mocks as well my past two mocks were crazy I couldnt believe I got more picks right that Mcshay and Kiper both years.
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 30, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yup
and yet ESPN pays those guys a ton of money. not sure it’s worth that investment.
by Matty I on Mar 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I for one would love to have their jobs get paid all that money just to give out your opinion can't beat that
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 30, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny..cause I complete with these guys each year too..on my own
I come close,, just missing on those “inside info” picks…
I also include a score for getting the position right,,, which I think is important.
Go get em’ Matty!!!!!
"I never met a man I didn't want to fight"
Lyle Alzado
08-09 No Award Winner
by NJDolphan68 on Mar 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah a score for getting the position right is good too just because a guy like Crabtree is ranked the number 1 wide out dont mean a team may not like a guy better and surprise people and take him instead
like the Raiders I think they will take Crabtree but alot of people and a close friend of mine say they really like Maclin.
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 30, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matty is a jack of all trades
Draft Expert, Award show host, Blog cop, Brandon London’s BFF, etc etc..
lol I know personally, I can’t compete with the likes of Kiper and Mayock, simply because most of my information on guys that aren’t mainstream (everyone heard about Crabtree and Maualuga..) comes from those guys. I may outperform them in a mock draft contest, but it’ll be because I used alot of their info on guys and fit them where I think they fit. I couldn’t come up with a 32 man Big Board like Kiper, or go 5-10 deep at every position with rankings like Mayock, I just freeload off their stuff, and make a mock of my own lol. Once draft day rolls around though, anyone can get it right, because it’s a crapshoot.
Don’t worry Matty, we’ll see if you’re really an “expert” if you win the Phinsider Mock Draft Contest (more prestigious IMO lol).
by Little Nicky 21 on Mar 30, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
12 picks is not to bad I do think this year will be a bad one for me though
Browns,Bengals and Jags picks got me stuck right now my gut tells me the Browns will take Orakpo but then again Jenkins,Well and Even Crabtree since this is Edwars contract year and they really dont have a true number2 receiver,then the Bengals they need o-line help a good pass rushing end or linebacker and a running back,now the Jags again they need to protect Davids Blindside and again a wideout grrrrrr choices
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 30, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what a suprise, Kiper got some of the lower scores
"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"
-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic
by Patssuck456 on Mar 30, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol the only thing he's good for
is knowing something about every one in the draft, and when he gets it wrong, he acts like the team is an idiot for not picking his guy :>)
" oh I'm sorry did I break your concentration?" -Jules Winfield-
Creator of the(pie in the sky) trade up and "draft B. J. Raji" bandwagon Matty I's Besswagon L Nicky 21s Brandwagon-- Winner of BloodyElbow FunnyBone Contest IV's Andre Arlofski's "how's taste my poo poo?" Award for his fondness for not so tasteful poop jokes..
by uncle finster on Mar 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about when Kiper said Mike Williams (the former Lions WR) was going to be great.
Somebody disagreed with him on the air during the draft and Kiper responded by saying “I’ll see you at his Hall of Fame induction.”
lol
But these “experts” are never held accountable.
by Matty I on Mar 30, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he really said that?
wadda douche
Phinsider Hall of Fame Class of 2009
2-Time Matty Award Winner
by Rzayo24 on Mar 31, 2009 4:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he did really say that
and yes – he’s a douche
by Matty I on Mar 31, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he still acts
like he’s never wrong! Go figure?
what a douche :>)
" oh I'm sorry did I break your concentration?" -Jules Winfield-
Creator of the(pie in the sky) trade up and "draft B. J. Raji" bandwagon Matty I's Besswagon L Nicky 21s Brandwagon-- Winner of BloodyElbow FunnyBone Contest IV's Andre Arlofski's "how's taste my poo poo?" Award for his fondness for not so tasteful poop jokes..
by uncle finster on Mar 31, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mathias.. are you a dolphin-like form of jesus?
El Peezy... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
by el presidente 00 on Mar 30, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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