Numbers Can't Lie: Drafting an elite WR
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 12:25 PM EDT
121 comments
Back in January, I wrote an article discussing how a wide receiver's height/body mass index (BMI) combination is a critical component to their chances of developing into an elite player. As it turns out, elite receivers come from four small intersections of height and BMI.
Here is a rough approximation of what those areas look like on a graph:
via static.fantasyfootballcalculator.com
The left-hand box is the Slight category (average height, low BMI). The bottom box is the Short category (short, average BMI). The right-hand box is the Thick category (average height, high BMI). And the top box is the Tall category (tall, average BMI).
Now, must of us will agree that WR is one of the Dolphins' most pressing areas of need, perhaps its biggest. The team seems to have a bunch of No. 2 or No. 3 guys with no elite player among the bunch. It would be a huge help for this offense to get one of those guys in the system by the time Chad Henne takes over at quarterback.
My goal is to take a look at some of the incoming WR prospects in the Draft this year and to find out which, if any, of them will be entering the league with the body build necessary to become that elite player we need.
I'm going to list the top 15 WR as ranked by Draft Countdown to see if any of them have an elite build.
Here goes:
| Height |
Weight |
BMI |
Elite? |
Category |
|
| Michael Crabtree |
6-13/8 | 215 |
28.1 |
No |
|
| Jeremy Maclin |
6-01/8 | 198 |
26.8 |
Yes |
Short |
| Percy Harvin |
5-111/8 | 192 |
26.7 |
Yes |
Short |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey |
6-15/8 | 210 |
27.2 |
No |
|
| Kenny Britt |
6-27/8 | 218 |
27.3 |
Yes |
Tall |
| Hakeem Nicks |
6-03/4 | 212 |
28.2 |
Yes |
Thick |
| Brian Robiskie |
6-27/8 | 209 |
26.2 |
Yes |
Slight |
| Derrick Williams |
5-111/2 | 194 |
26.7 |
Yes |
Short |
| Juaquin Iglesias |
6-07/8 | 210 |
27.8 |
No |
|
| Louis Murphy |
6-23/8 | 203 |
25.8 |
Yes |
Slight |
| Ramses Barden |
6-6 | 229 |
26.5 |
No |
|
| Brandon Tate |
5-117/8 | 183 |
24.9 |
No |
|
| Brandon Gibson |
6-03/8 | 210 |
28.2 |
Yes |
Thick |
| Demetrius Byrd |
6-01/4 | 199 |
26.8 |
No |
|
| Brooks Foster |
6-01/2 | 211 |
28.2 |
Yes |
Thick |
So, what can we gather from this chart?
First off, there are more WRs with elite builds among the top of this year's draft class than I imagined. Of course, it must be remembered that about half of the WRs with elite builds that are drafted in the first four rounds still don't develop into elite players. You should also keep in mind that those players who currently have elite builds can subsequently fall out of those categories by gaining or losing weight. It's also possible for some players to move into an elite category by gaining or losing weight.
To use the line that I continually returned to in the comments of my first column on this subject: Having one of these four elite builds is necessary but not sufficient to become an elite receiver.
Second, even though Bill Parcells' track record would seem to preclude him from drafting a receiver in the first round, if the potentially-elite Percy Harvin is still sitting there you'd have to consider him.
Of course, with the seeming depth of elite-build WRs, the Dolphins could easily go in a different direction with the first-round pick and still have plenty of options to choose from when they get into rounds 2 and 3.
Brandon Gibson and Brooks Foster will still likely be on the board when the fourth round starts.
Another question the team will have to answer is whether it can be picky about exactly what kind of elite WR it drafts. One thing Miami's receiving corps lacks is size. It would be preferable to see them add one of the Tall or Thick guys listed above, but if they have a shot at Robiskie, Williams, or Murphy, they certainly can't overlook them.
Which of those players with an elite build would you like to see Miami draft this year?
(P.S.: On a completely non-football-related note, go buy the new Mastodon album, Crack the Skye, and thank me later.)
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Nice post
I like the analysis… This just pushes my vote against Juaquin Iglesias even more…
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don't like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that."- Bill Shankly
by Phinaddict on Mar 26, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
holy crap!
crabtree is 6’ 13/8ths? that’s like…math or something…. wait! i think that’s like… over 7ft tall?
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PS - nice write up man.
i rec’d it.
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon London
Doesn’t he fall into this category already?
London, Brandon WR 6-4 210
by phinhead on Mar 26, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
currently he does not
London’s height is 6043, and his weight is about 210-214. He would have to get up to about 220-222 to fall into the Tall category. That might be a bit much for him, but I’m not sure.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoyed the write up.
But I have to ask you something. You wrote, “Having one of these four elite builds is necessary but not sufficient to become an elite receiver.”
The term “necessary” is a very serious term here. Are you telling me that Michael Crabtree is not going to become an elite receiver because he doesn’t have the right body build? If so – I’d be willing to bet my life against that idea.
But before I do, I wanted to clarify what you’re saying here.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm saying what you think I'm saying
That being said, Crabtree is only like 4 or 5 pounds away from getting into the Thick category. Obviously that’s easily attainable.
And just because a receiver doesn’t have an elite build doesn’t mean they won’t be good. These measurements are just concerning the cream of the crop.
But would it really surprise you to see some highly touted WR not pan out like everyone thought they would. That’s never happened before has it?
Snarkiness aside, I too think Crabtree will be really good. Adding 4 or 5 pounds is nothing, and he’ll probably do that anyway.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really ain't buying this
Are you saying now that if Crabtree becomes elite, it’ll be because the kid added 4 or 5 pounds to his frame? But if he doesn’t add 4 or 5 pounds, then he won’t be elite?
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like I said
he’s almost exactly on the border of that group as is.
But no elite receiver has fallen outside one of those four boxes over the last ten years. I’m comfortable with that kind of history on my side.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What % of WRs in the NFL
fall into those categories? And who’s deciding who’s elite?
"We're paratroopers Lieutenant, we're supposed to be surrounded." -Major Richard Winters-
"Creator of the(pie in the sky) trade our 1st one of our 2nds and two of our 7th rounders and "draft B. J. Raji" bandwagon On board Matty I's Besswagon On board L Nicky 21s Brandwagon
by uncle finster on Mar 26, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure of the %
although over the past ten years 63 out of about 165 WRs drafted in the first four rounds had an elite body build. Then about half of those 63 actually panned out to be elite.
The measurement for “eliteness” that was used by the study was yards per game. I don’t think that switching up the measurement used would change things all that much though.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phin Phan...
I’d really like to better understand the parameters by which you group the receivers into these 4 potential ‘elite’ categories. Are they based on a particular BMI? Again, if you could please articulate.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no prob
The parameters are laid out in an article that was published in Pro Football Prospectus 2008.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to relate the parameters without having the graph in front of you.
But, for instance, a receiver falling into the Tall category will roughly have a BMI between 26.6 and 27.8 and a height between 74 and 77.5 inches. I don’t know if that helps with what you were asking.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the added comments...
It helps articulate what you are saying.
I guess I’d like to, and perhaps others would to, know exactly what the range is for say, the Thick category, Short category, and Slight category.
You mentioned the tall category is a BMI of roughly 26.6 – 27.8 with a height of 74 – 77.5 inches. If we could have the same information for the other categories then I think it might help us better understand the parameters of this study.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
These are just rough approximations for the ranges. The boxes themselves have to be thought of as slightly fuzzy since any two scales might measure a guy’s weight differently, but they are pretty good.
Slight will roughly have a BMI between 25.1 and 26.2 with a height between 71.8 and 75.5 inches.
Short = BMI between 26.6 and 27.8, height between 68.6 and 72.1 inches.
Thick = BMI between 28.2 and 29.3, height between 71.25 and 74.75 inches.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
first thing that jumps out and makes me call "BS" on this...
….if a player has a BMI between 26.6 and 27.8, but is just 73" tall – then they won’t be “elite”….but if that same player was 72" or 74" then he’d be “elite”
hmmm…
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
Just look at the graveyard of former first round picks who fall into that category: Troy Williamson, Koren Robinson, Travis Taylor, Charles Rogers, Rod Gardner, Kevin Dyson.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that doesn't prove anything
that’s a coincidence
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistics are nothing but a series of
repeated correlated coincidences.
Of course – “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital”
by math_geek on Mar 26, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i love that!
that’s a great quote!
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
could you lay our for us the parameters of all 4 "categories"?
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matty here's what I can gather so far:
Slight = BMI between 25.1 and 26.2 with a height between 71.8 and 75.5 inches.
Short = BMI between 26.6 and 27.8, height between 68.6 and 72.1 inches.
Thick = BMI between 28.2 and 29.3, height between 71.25 and 74.75 inches.
Tall = BMI between 26.6 and 27.8 and a height between 74 and 77.5 inches
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nat, this harks back to an earlier post
He explains the rankings a bit more in the post and the subsequent discussions.
http://www.thephinsider.com/2009/1/15/724786/numbers-can-t-lie-readjust
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Murphy!!!
Based on this analysis, i’d say we have to go Louis Murphy.
Approximately 6’2 and 200 lbs with an elite body frame.
hmm… who does this remind me of….
Greatest receiver of all time: 6’2 and 200 lbs.
Guys, we have a shot at the next Jerry Rice!!!
Creator of the 'Draft Clay Matthews Jr.' bandwagon.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
by Patrick Bateman79 on Mar 26, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Faulty logic
Obviously this post was intended in jest. It represents a faulty line of logic to which most people fall victim. Possession of a certain physical attributes does not indicate that you will be able to replicate someone else’s success.
I agree with this analysis in that the grouping of great receivers into these four categories does tell an interesting story.
But, as with all numbers in the ‘numbers can lie’ series, they are based on historic results. As the game changes, the skills and physical attributes required by players changes. This analysis would be a lot more meaningful if it included the ‘why’ instead of just the ‘what’. ie. players with slight frames tend to excel due to… , and then project that reasoning into what would fit our roster the best in terms of the defences we play against.
historic results are a mediocre summary. you need to add the underlying driver in order to predict results. Otherwise your just a weatherman telling me it’s going to rain today since it rained yesterday.
Creator of the 'Draft Clay Matthews Jr.' bandwagon.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
by Patrick Bateman79 on Mar 26, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I can’t say that he will be the next Jerry Rice, but I will say he will make his mark. I think we can get him at a bargain. And to be perfectly honest I think if Percy harvin falls to us Bill will trade the pick to someone else for more draft picks and pick up another receiver. Specifically Louis murphy, I think he would be a great addition to the squad.
by esco6781 on Mar 26, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very enjoyable write-up and subject, however....
I’m with Matty on this one. I think this analysis steps off the cliff of the cause and effect relationship. I also think that sometimes statistical analysis tends to lose focus of common sense.
For example, if I’m 6-2 215lbs, what category am I in? The answer is NONE. I’m not a football player. Why am I not a great WR if I have the perfect size? Its because of skill? What skills make a great WR We can sit here for hours defining the skills needed, i.e. route running, coverage recognition, catching ability, etc… We can even break them down even further, ay, pass catching ability, the number one skill is probably hand-eye coordination. Once you drill down thru those abilities, it seems counter-productive then to go back to size to evaluate the WR. That is something you do before all of that. The anti-example would be John Doe who can catch everything you throw at him within reach, but he’s 5-7 and weighs 145lbs. Great pass-catcher, but he’s no NFL WR.
At this level, all of the WR’s are better than 99.9% of all other athletes out there. What separates them at this level is their skill, not their size. As long as the WR has risen to this level of competition, they have the size necessary, but do they have the skill.
Again, good write-up, interesting subject.
by dab415217 on Mar 26, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so Matty has always been pretty high on Ginn
but according to these numbers, Ginn will never be an elite WR. What do you think?
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where would these guys chart, and would they be "elite?"
Mark Clayton
Height: 5-9 Weight: 177 lbs.
Mark Duper
Height: 5-9 Weight: 185 lbs.
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The OP mentioned this was for the past 10 years or so I believe
so I’m not sure it is applicable to players from 20 years ago.
The game was different then in many ways and throwing the ball was much harder due to rules favoring the defense.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just curious how they would stack up
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
because you don't get any more elite than this:
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Natalya's right
This is only concerning the past ten years, though this question was asked in the comments last time.
If I recall correctly one of them fell into an elite category and the other didn’t, but I can’t say this research is applicable to that era.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my guess is Duper probably rated higher than Clayton
because he weighs more.
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And now I'm officially calling "B.S." on this
Andre Johnson = doesn’t fit into a category. Has a 27.9 BMI and 75" tall
Brandon Marshall = doesn’t fit into a category. Has a 28 BMI and is 76" tall
I guess they aren’t elite…..
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
they both fit squarely into categories
Andre Johnson is smack dab in the middle of the Thick category and Marshall is right in the middle of the Tall category.
Johnson has a BMI of 28.5 and is 74 inches tall.
Marshall has a BMI of 27.6 and is 76.5 inches tall.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not according to their heights and weights on NFL.com
Johnson = 75" 223 pounds
Marshall = 76" and 230 pounds
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I'm saying...
we need to be working off the same figures.
From nfl.com, johnson is 6’3" = 75 inches, not 74.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
my point is anyone can go “stat-digging” online and find a place that lists these players heights and weights to fit into this “theory.” So I used the most impartial stats out there – NFL.com. They have no reason to mess with each player’s height/weight.
And neither Johnson nor Marshall fit into a category.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually johnson & marshall do fit into a category...
that being ‘elite’ :)
I hear you though on the point.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they are just posting what the team's give them
look at the heights the guys had coming into the draft. That’s unbiased since those measurements were taken at the Combine and every team wanted to get the exact measurement.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and ladies and gentlemen...
…we’ve found a case where, while numbers cant lie, the people using the numbers can hunt down the “right ones” for them to prove their theories.
Good stuff and a great debate, PhinPhan, but I’m not buying any of this.
Oh – and if the guys at FootballOutsiders were so good – they’d be in a team’s front office.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice!
I’ve been preaching that point a couple of times now.
A number might not lie, but the selection of what numbers to use impacts a lot.
Creator of the 'Draft Clay Matthews Jr.' bandwagon.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
by Patrick Bateman79 on Mar 26, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great, I get it that you are "calling BS"
That’s fine.
But finding and using the players’ Combine numbers instead of their individual team-submitted numbers isn’t “hunting down the right ones.”
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see my post below
IF you used Andre Johnson’s height and weight from the Combine – then he wouldn’t fit into a category. Height is 74" and BMI = 29.5
You can’t use numbers only when they are convenient for you.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lies, Damn Lies, and.....Statistics? :)
I admit I’m skeptical because this is an incredibly narrow set of criteria – literally down to the last inch and even a single pound – which while correlating with the performance of these top receivers, has not been established, at least in what has been presented here – as a direct causation of such success of these 23 receivers.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't use NFL.com
Those numbers are usually submitted by the teams, and the teams fudge the numbers. For height, I usually look to NFLDraftScout, since that has their heights down to tenths of inches. Most players don’t grow any taller once they enter the NFL. Andre Johnson is only 6’2.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but their weights could change after years in an NFL training program
And you just told me above that while Crabtree, based on his pre-draft info, doesn’t fit into a category now – he still could add a few pounds to fit.
You can’t have it both ways here.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can change your weight
but you can’t grow taller. And for a lot of players they can’t add enough weight to get an elite build without sacrificing some of their skill set.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't it convenient that you won't use NFLDraftScout's weight but will use their height
And if you do use NFLDraftScout’s weight, then Andre Johnson doesn’t fit into a category. He’d be 74" and a BMI of 29.5.
You can’t use the numbers when they are most convenient for you.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
because he lost weight when he came into the NFL
Just like Santana Moss gained a lot of weight.
And wouldn’t you know it, David Boston’s best season (1999) was the one year he had an elite build. Then he gained weight an fell out of the Thick category and his career plummeted.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you know that the Texans are "messing" wih the numbers here like you claim they are with the heights?
Oh – and David Boston was on steroids. That’s why his career plummeted. He couldn’t stay healthy because he was too big.
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and those steriods got him into the elite build
I didn’t say the Texans were messing with the numbers, but teams will always round up when it comes to height. Andre Johnson is 6’2 and maybe a tenth of an inch more. They call it 6’3.
Eddie Royal is 5095. The Broncos call it 5’10
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and while I'm at it
The best rookie WR from last year, Eddie Royal (91-980-5) doesn’t fit either. His BMI is 26.1 and his height is 70".
I guess he’ll never be “elite”
by Matty I on Mar 26, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait a sec guys...
are we using the same height/weight numbers? if we aren’t then the bmi numbers will obviously differ and we won’t agree..
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Royal actually does fit a category
He’s 5095 and if he is 184 pounds he is in the Short category.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to ask about Royal too
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 26, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness to the OP
he did say 23 of 25 – does that mean Marshall and Johnson are the missing 2?
Johnson only led the league in yards & catches last year I believe…
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what about the height/BMI of Wilford? He's got some gifts, but
Is heart a factor?
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd really like to see an r^2 value
correlating BMI & height with receiving yards per game.
The articles I’ve seen in the original post via links, mention the categories but not the correlation value.
Then we could say ok – this BMI + height combo were a say, 0.45 r^2 for receiving yards per game (or whatever)
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
While we're at it
Let’s run a monte carlo simulation and use that to project the ideal receiver for us to draft.
Creator of the 'Draft Clay Matthews Jr.' bandwagon.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
by Patrick Bateman79 on Mar 26, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never thought
I would see the request for an r^2 value on a website.
And I never thought I would get to use the terms spurious and monte carlo simulation.
I’m hoping to somehow work in a value at risk critique. I just need to figure out a way.
Creator of the 'Draft Clay Matthews Jr.' bandwagon.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
by Patrick Bateman79 on Mar 26, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our vocabulary here at Phinsider
is impressively extensive and diverse running the gamut from ubiquitous 3 letter internet acronyms to complex statistical jargon.
Mostly though, we just like to debate Quarterbacks and homerism.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HOLY COW!!!!
I work in a sewer plant, tone it down!!!!!!
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a crazy question (forgive me because I am no numerologist like you guys)
This post pertains to WR from the last 10 years. Would the body size-height-speed changes in the wide receivers over a span of time be on a similar curve to the body size-height-speed changes of the DBs over the same time span? I guess what I am asking isn’t it relative? Mark Clayton against James Hasty similar to Laveranues Coles against Dre Bly type thing? Not trying to argue, I always hear about how great the athletes of today are but I always wonder if the competition is the same because both sides evolve together.
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
God i hope that makes sense saying it is hard. . .
typing it is ridiculous.
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
definitely an interesting point
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 26, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is all crap because....
…according to the Dept of Health and Human Services BMI scale:
BMI Categories:
* Underweight = <18.5
* Normal weight = 18.5-24.9
* Overweight = 25-29.9
* Obesity = BMI of 30 or greater
They are all overweight. What the hell s a bunch of fat bastards doing playing in the NFL?!!
Shenanigans, I say!
by dab415217 on Mar 26, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh thanks. . .
I’m going to have some oreos.
I would like to be nominated for the tom Olivadotti BMI over 30 award.
12-4 in 2009.
by phatfinfan on Mar 26, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WOW...
I’m TOTALLY not feeling this article…sorry buddy. I think its total bullshit and while ur measuring a dudes BMW….ill measure his heart and attitude.
sorry….just dont agree.
Phinsider Hall of Fame Class of 2009
2-Time Matty Award Winner
by Rzayo24 on Mar 26, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This article went on and on months ago.
It makes no sense and almost everybody said it is just some one trying to put scientific equations into football to make sense.
I can not believe it is back again. I guess we have to battle this one again! Wish I could easily reference the older post for my amazing arguements shutting this thing down!
The Patriots Suck
by k2oconnor on Mar 26, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously, where BMI fails the sniff test is...
…common sense. Lets see why by answering a few simple questions:
- Can you tell a great WR by physical stats? No. You can see if he generally qualifies by his stature.
- Can you tell a great WR by looking at him standing there in gym shorts? No, but you can get a general feel for his BMI if you were educated in that measurement and what its looks equate to.
- Can you tell a great WR by how he runs the 40yd dash? No.
- Can you even tell a great WR by how he practices? This is where we get into a gray area. The answer is yes, for the most part, but we all know there are some players who just don’t look good in practice. However, come game day they are a different payer.
t all comes down to cause and effect. BMI is an effect of the type of athletes that are required to play the position, not a cause of players being great once they get there. Once the athlete gets to that close to elite level (all NFL WR’s are elite athletes), its their skill that makes them elite.
by dab415217 on Mar 26, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, I like the 1 key. :)
I need to stop rushing my typing to get out of work faster. :)
by dab415217 on Mar 26, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IOW - Correlation does not imply Causation :)
There are tons of factors we could raise and try to create metrics equating that with performance.
You could use anything from 40 times, vertical jump, 20 yard dash times, wonderlic scores, BMI, heck even shoe size and argue that all great receivers wear, say, a size 12-1/2 shoe or something.
The real key is how much, if at all, are these individual measurements truly responsible or directly related to performance. Otherwise, it just becomes a rather interesting coincidence or correlation rather.
by Natalya on Mar 26, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think your last line sums it up perfectly.
Natalya – “Otherwise, it just becomes a rather interesting coincidence or correlation rather.”
^^^
That!
by dab415217 on Mar 26, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice write up
even though Crabtree not an elite build, i would still pick him over any other receiver in this draft…i am not really buying into this, a player can be great without having an elite build..Jerry Rice didnt have an elite build and well, you all know what he did…i dont think this whole elite build thing is a big thing, but thats just me
-"I'll weather whatever storm, Make it out without a bruise"
-"Even when winning illogical, losing is still far from optional"
-"Even the greatest gotta suffer sometime"
-"No excuses, No explanations"
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Mar 26, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm calling BS.
I did not even read half of the comments already posted, so I apologize if I reiterate things that have already been beaten to death. First of all, numbers can be misleading, as they are out of context and biased, because they can be interpreted a number of different ways. This holds true for almost everything. Second, the weight of an individual doesn’t necessarily tell you much. Are they heavier because they have more fat, more muscle, bigger bones, longer arms, longer legs, etc. Some of this stuff may affect a player’s ability to be a good receiver, and some may not. Bottom line – a few pounds here or there from several means likely has an insignificant causal relationship to increased performance. Another point – things are not black and white. They don’t have to always fall within exact numbers. There are varying degrees to just about everything dealing with performance. Thus, there’s no way a player can be included or excluded from being elite based soley on an inch of height or 5 pounds of weight. If I had more time I’d go into this more, but these are my superficial, and possibly ignorant, thoughts on this issue. Just my 2 cents.
by kcorona4 on Mar 26, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I must be blind but I thought good work ethic,production,skills,playmaking ability etc is what makes a wide receiver elite not hight/weight
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 26, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ernest Wilford
case closed.
Phinsider Hall of Fame Class of 2009
2-Time Matty Award Winner
by Rzayo24 on Mar 26, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To be fair,
the poster said certain BMIs are necessary but not sufficient. Obviously Wilford is lacking in other essential factors necessary to be an elite receiver. But I believe that theseBMIs certainly are not necessary either.
by kcorona4 on Mar 26, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the money for now...
well done PhinPhan. Do I agree, maybe. I like the science. That is what is represents. It works now as a metric of potential success in all probability given the unknowns of skill set. It works, but it may not 2 years hence.
As a physical indicator of success between a myriad of similar WRs it can help to distinguish if you think they have the skill set. This helps the FO in a case between perceived similar skill sets for WRs in very different college systems and project an NFL viability for those and aid the pick.
Great post PhinPhan, I gooooooooooooooooooooed
Butler Brace Barwin & Barden: 4Bs or not 4Bs, that is da Q
by Corroncho on Mar 26, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On the money for now...
well done PhinPhan. Do I agree, maybe. I like the science. That is what is represents. It works now as a metric of potential success in all probability given the unknowns of skill set. It works, but it may not 2 years hence.
As a physical indicator of success between a myriad of similar WRs it can help to distinguish if you think they have the skill set. This helps the FO in a case between perceived similar skill sets for WRs in very different college systems and project an NFL viability for those and aid the pick.
Great post PhinPhan, I gooooooooooooooooooooed
Butler Brace Barwin & Barden: 4Bs or not 4Bs, that is da Q
by Corroncho on Mar 26, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Large, strong...works good in tight coverage (will come down with or steal the ball away)
Hard to bring down after the catch…!!
Not the fastest but w/ Ginn we do no need the fasted.!
by MassFinFan65 on Mar 26, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Large, strong...works good in tight coverage"
thats what she said about me to her friends =)
-"I'll weather whatever storm, Make it out without a bruise"
-"Even when winning illogical, losing is still far from optional"
-"Even the greatest gotta suffer sometime"
-"No excuses, No explanations"
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Mar 26, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LMFAO
she must be a midget
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 26, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
screw you
ur just jealous
-"I'll weather whatever storm, Make it out without a bruise"
-"Even when winning illogical, losing is still far from optional"
-"Even the greatest gotta suffer sometime"
-"No excuses, No explanations"
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Mar 26, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
In a way I am I have been trying to shag an Asian midget for a long time
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Mar 26, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lmfao
-"I'll weather whatever storm, Make it out without a bruise"
-"Even when winning illogical, losing is still far from optional"
-"Even the greatest gotta suffer sometime"
-"No excuses, No explanations"
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Mar 26, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont even know what to say to that
-"I'll weather whatever storm, Make it out without a bruise"
-"Even when winning illogical, losing is still far from optional"
-"Even the greatest gotta suffer sometime"
-"No excuses, No explanations"
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Mar 26, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good luck
"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"
-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic
by Patssuck456 on Mar 26, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
PhinPhan
all i can say is, I’m glad it isn’t me arguing with you this time.
=)
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 26, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting
At first it seems a little arbitrary and weird, but when you think about it, it makes sense. What that chart is telling us is that elite WRs are NOT short and thin, or short and heavy. They’re also not tall and thin or tall and heavy.
That part sounds logical to me. A tall and heavy WR, for example, would almost certainly be very slow.
What I don’t get is, according to that chart an elite WR does not have average weight AND height. The other combinations don’t look good right off the bat, but average? What’s wrong with average? How is being short with average weight better than having average height and average weight? That doesn’t make any sense to me.
by icerob on Mar 27, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
why can't we just say...
WR’s between 6’ and 6’2" and between 190 and 210 lbs. are usually better than others…simple and true
Just one man's opinion.
The defending AFC Champions Miami Dolphins chose Marino with the 27th pick in the NFL draft.....
Founding member of the 2nd round draft of NT Ron Brace, 6'3", 330, benchx225:32
Founding member of the 3rd round draft of OG Herman Johnson, 6'7", 350, 36.5" arms
by hwyatt3 on Mar 27, 2009 1:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That right...., this is not a statistical proof...
It’s just common sense. There are so many variables in what is ideal or eliet, and there are guys who do break the mold. Sure more elite WR’s average 6’1 205… That’s because it’s probably the mean for the entire league. The percentage of tall, short, and skinny, elite WRs is probably proportinate to the entire league, and for good reason too.
Necessary Traits:
1) Good hands: Sure 99% of NFL WR’s have good hand but what about those passes that are HARD TO REACH. Shorter WRs can probably get those low one’s better but those taller WRs have an advantage of the higher one. Those Med build guys with great ability, your ELITE, can adjust either way, Overtime, I’d say they have the advantage.
2) Routes: Two things make up speed, stride length and turn over speed. Shorter guys have less stride length and can churn out more turn over thus making it easier to cut and run precise routes, Taller people have less turn over an their stride length causes them to take a bit longer to get going, Average size guys with great stability can mimike the bursts of their shorter counterparts, Also, with route running you have to contend with jamming defenders. Smaller guys can get swallowed up and taller guys without upperbody strength are easy to domintae. So, once again your average size guy has a better chance of getting past the chuck.
3)Durability- If you only play a few years are you really elite… smaller guys tend to wear down quicker and taller slimmer builds are exposes and risks targets. Medium size again is the best bet for durability,
4) Blocking- Hines Ward in my opinon is an Elite WR, because of all he does, He is the best blocking WR in the last 20 years. He is only 6’ 205. Taller WR’s loose leverage becuase they have to constantly get their pad levels down to block 5’9 CBs… not easy. Smaller WRs who do not have upper body strength to match their DB opposition get overmatched. You can have WR’s benching 500, too much muscle mass will restrict them, not so much for those nasty cover 2 CBs,,,
5) Speed- it comes in all shapes and sizes,,, but when you factor in game speed, you should consider if you WR can maintain his 40 time with pads on and after getting blasted on the knees and thrown to the ground for 2-3 quarters…
To really make an honest comparison you’d have to first identify the elite and then compare their BMIs to the entire league, and compare to BMI league averages for each year,,, not a task I’d be looking forward to.
"I never met a man I didn't want to fight"
Lyle Alzado
08-09 No Award Winner
by NJDolphan68 on Mar 27, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Really well done NJD68
rec’d
"We're paratroopers Lieutenant, we're supposed to be surrounded." -Major Richard Winters-
"Creator of the(pie in the sky) trade our 1st one of our 2nds and two of our 7th rounders and "draft B. J. Raji" bandwagon On board Matty I's Besswagon On board L Nicky 21s Brandwagon
by uncle finster on Mar 27, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Uncle..
We need spell check up in here… :)
"I never met a man I didn't want to fight"
Lyle Alzado
08-09 No Award Winner
by NJDolphan68 on Mar 27, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really nice post!
That analysis on Robiskie makes me love him even more!
P.S. When you say “thick” in category it cracks me up. Thick…lol.
I Phinsguy99 am creator of the, "Draft Brian Robiskie Bandwagon"
Co.- FinzD54
by Phinsguy99 on Mar 27, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good write up-
reading the comments to me it seems like a lot of people are either getting caught up in semantics – or putting all their focus on a few outliers.
When you read any kind of analysis- you have to keep in mind that no matter what anyone says- there is ALWAYS the possibility of an event that doesn’t comply with the findings. They are called outliers- and you generally ignore them. If there are 98 elite WRs who fit this profile, and 2 that don’t- which side are you going to hang your hat on?
Saying an entire analysis is invalid because of a few cases completely missing the point. I call it the “Zach Thomas Argument”. Every time you say a guy is too small/slow/etc. somebody counters with “but what about ZACH THOMAS?! He was too small and too slow and he was great!” Yeah guys, but guess what- there is a reason that was a special story- because that usually never happens! Otherwise, nobody would care. That would be like me telling you not to plan your retirement around winning the lottery and you telling me I’m full of it cuz a guy you knew
won it once. That may be so, but there is still a 22,957,480:1 chance you will be poor as hell when you want to retire.
Teams don’t like to rely on the lottery either- its game theory. The draft will always be a gamble, but it is all about maximizing your chances of success. Yes guys, ANYthing is possible- and someone who doesn’t fit this profile could very well be the next ‘Zach Thomas’ of wide receivers. But if it hasn’t happened yet- they why would you start betting it will?
And finding a few borderline cases that may or may not contradict the analysis isn’t much of a case either IMO- a.) there is a chance they fit the parameters as they stand depending on which sources are accurate and b.) these parameters are not static. They are going to shift over time as defenses adjust and the rules change. If you found a contradictory case that is right on the fringe- you probably aren’t disproving the anaylsis- but rather found evidence that the criteria is shifting in reaction to some new dynamic that is emerging in the game.
Take this for what it is – which is just a template that suggests a way to increase your chances of getting a good WR. It doesn’t try to say, who what when where why or how this is the case. If you start talking about that you are falling out of the realm of statistical analysis and into less quantifiable, more subjective categories. Sorry if it says the guy you like will be a bust – but its just a history (though that may be easy for me to say since my Gators are in the elite prototype right? hehe).
Now- on to the point I actually had. I am really interested in seeing the affect the rule changes are going to have on what a prototype WR looks like. From what I hear, the new rules really inhibit the ability of a defense to punish WRs from going across the middle. Combine that with the semi recent pass interference rule changes and limits on a CBs ability to press and you have a completely different set of parameters that WRs are operating under.
I think we are going to see a shift to the left on the BMI line for some of these boxes. Since WRs are going to be taking less punishment, they won’t need to be as thick or muscular to last through a whole season- I think in the future it will be more advantageous to carry less weight in favor of speed and athleticism. I definitely don’t think a guy like DeSean Jackson has the year he did if DBs were able to give as much contact as they were in the past. Then again, if we extend the season to 17 or 18 games then maybe it carries it the other way or evens out?
Winner of the 2009 Bill Parcells Award.
Less Lonely Leader of the Percy Harvin Bandwagon.
by GatorPhan on Mar 27, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well said
Those last points you bring up are definitely interesting and something to keep an eye on.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Mar 27, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harvin, Murphy or Nicks either of those three would satisfy me.
by nydolfan on Mar 28, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
out of reach, maybe, and probably not
…don’t get me wrong…I would love see them too….but it just won’t happen……..
we still have line work to do and we can get guys to catch the ball late……..
Just one man's opinion.
The defending AFC Champions Miami Dolphins chose Marino with the 27th pick in the NFL draft.....
Founding member of the 2nd round draft of NT Ron Brace, 6'3", 330, benchx225:32 bandwagon
Founding member of the 3rd round draft of OG Herman Johnson, 6'7", 350, 36.5" arms bandwagon
by hwyatt3 on Mar 28, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although I would like to add that London is capable of being an elite WR in my opinion.
by nydolfan on Mar 28, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he has the potential....we will see if he is capable....... I'm rooting for him
Just one man's opinion.
The defending AFC Champions Miami Dolphins chose Marino with the 27th pick in the NFL draft.....
Founding member of the 2nd round draft of NT Ron Brace, 6'3", 330, benchx225:32 bandwagon
Founding member of the 3rd round draft of OG Herman Johnson, 6'7", 350, 36.5" arms bandwagon
by hwyatt3 on Mar 28, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post
"I think pro athletes should be forced to use steroids. I think we as fans deserve the greatest athletes science can create."- Daniel Tosh
Crabtree ! Crabtree ! Crabtree ! -NPK
by NorthPhillyKid on Mar 29, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nice post
but how do you measure “heart” and the uncanny ability to get open that some special receivers have?
by ncfinfan on Apr 3, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
drafting an elite wr
i think we should go for kenny britt not only his tall he can jump like high which would help big time but you after factor the defenders can knock it out of his hands the way down
Blake Allen
by finfan4ever on Apr 3, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
huh???
Just one man's opinion.
The defending AFC Champions Miami Dolphins chose Marino with the 27th pick in the NFL draft.....
Founding member of the 2nd round draft of NT Ron Brace, 6'3", 330, benchx225:32 bandwagon
Founding member of the 3rd round draft of OG Herman Johnson, 6'7", 350, 36.5" arms bandwagon
by hwyatt3 on Apr 3, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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