Thank you for this great analysis that only serves to reinforce the reservations some of us, including me, have expressed regarding these signings.

I posted some comments from the head blogger at the Houston Texans site which highlighted just how bad Petey Faggins is. As for Green, we all know he wasn’t even good enough to be a dimeback during the cardinals playoff run, much less a starter.

When it is said and done, as of right now, we have one legitimate starting CB on this roster – being Will Allen. Outside of that, we have a bunch of guys you, for all intents and purposes, hope to not have on the field!

Good stuff, though.

My question – where did you find these CB stats?

This is too negative for my taste. This is not our September team its our March team. I just think we should relax and give it more time. I like the direction we’re going.

of these “what our team is doing wrong” post. I guess its just a byproduct of it not being football season and its easier to tear into the negatives instead of being hopeful about the upcoming season. Idle hands do the work of the devil kinda thing. A) even if these are bad decisions, what are you going to do about it? B) I’d love to be so sure about things and able to predict the future. C) these kind of post do nothing except to set up for later comments of “See………..I told you so”.

 Great work and all of that…….I’m just done commenting on these kind of post whomever post them.

He’s certainly not being paid $6 million over two years to be the fifth corner, and Jones proved he can man the nickel spot. So the front office must think Green can start opposite Will Allen.

$6 million a year for two years is not a sign he is a starter. It means they will probably let him compete for now- but it isn’t exactly a bank breaker if he is demoted to the nickel CB. Not to mention- I believe half of that salary is some kind of incentive right? I think his base salary is closer to $1.5 million. Even if it isn’t – it was still less money than similar players got.

Its not really possible to tell what the purpose of signing Green was until the draft- but I would guess he is an insurance policy in case we can’t get the guy we want in the draft- or we do get him but he can’t get on the field right away.

What else were we supposed to do? The only other guys who fit the bill for us were Leigh Bodden, keeping Goody, and Bryant McFadden. Bodden wouldn’t even come in for a visit so that tells you how much interest he had in signing with us, Goodman got a ridiculous deal, and McFadden got $5 million a year for starting 17 games over 4 years. Most others on the market were either really old, wanted too much money, or had no starting experience. I personally think it was a good pickup for the $$s involved.

Obviously nobody knows who we are going to draft- but so far the Dolphins have had a decent presence at some of the 1st day CB prospect’s prodays so that is a positive a sign as you can get that they are looking at CBs in the draft. Until that is over though, nobody really knows what the regime’s plan is for Green so I think it is a little premature to pass any kind of absolute judgement.

If we were to sign a guy like Faggins I think it would just be a case of churning the bottom of the roster. For myself, I don’t care if the dime corner is 24 or 29- I see the upside of having a guy who has more experience because he can then be promoted in case of some kind of string of freak injuries and at least has SOME idea of what he is doing. Depth is an area I think you should have a mix of youth AND experience.

As far as Grove- I already stated my case on him. Yes he has a big injury concern- but I was pretty satisfied seeing someone break down his film against Wilfork and Jenkins because even the best metrics we have right now for O-Lines, and Centers in particular, aren’t very good IMO.

Let’s just get behind them.

The way I see it, they’re as good a secondary as we got unless other things transpire down the line. I’ll trust in the front office and their judgement. Once the season starts, if these guys start getting torched for yards and TDs, then i’ll be concerned.

I realize that it’s just my way of thinking, but i’d rather root for the guys that come in and play for my favorite team than to start them off under a cloud of negative scrutiny and fan backlash (see Ted Ginn).

Still, good research and evaluation, I dont want to say that you’re wrong. I just like to direct my energies in a different way.

Lets support these guys and our team.

Just think….

Cornerbacks
W. Allen
J. Allen
J. Thomas
N. Jones
E. Green
D. Faggins (Possibly)
S. Smith (Possible Draft)
A. Smith (Possible Draft)

Add in a Day 1 CB and maybe a Day 2 CB, and you have a CB crew picked by Tuna, made for how Tuna wants the show to run. Have faith guys, Obviously the FO has faith that they can turn sub-par players from other teams into Dolphin superstars. Plus we will end up with more depth at CB than we ever had.

No…you dont need to agree with EVERYTHING the Trifecta does…you cant doubt if you want….you can doubt ALLLLL you want……

but trust me they have access to your super secret numbers…..

I dont care what anyone says….and i dont care who they are….Phins fans like you can watch the game at the other end of the bar. I dont need to hear how you think this guy is gonna suck…and “here we go again”…..

We will draft corners…..thye will play cheap for years to come….and those are the guys we will have that ull approve of. These guys are just bridges to the future.

I guess if you are a glass half empty guy this is a great post for you to read. I personally think this is BS. Our FO just turned this team around in historic fashion … think about that for a minute before you start busting them up because these guys IYO don’t have what it takes.

I like many of the other posters here will wait to see what was on the field, they got great production last season from some UDFA in Bess and Carpenter and continue to get the best out of people. If this was the draft that Grove came out you would be jumping all over him to be picked in the first two rounds but now because he has had some down time in Oakland of all places you don’t think he is good and don’t want him.

I am not here to say that what the FO has done is great or anything like that but these guys have done more homework on this years FA class than I did through all of university so i will give them the benefit of the doubt.

I will respect your right to give your opinion but to be simply put I will always disagree with someone who has your attitude … than again it is people like you who are the driving force in many athletes lifes because of you always doubting their capability

objectivity vs. homerism post?

If you think that dissecting a player’s numbers and critiquing their metrics is negative then I simply don’t know what to say. What should we do? Engage in wishful thinking like somehow trading in their old team’s uniform and wearing aqua/orange will make a bunch of clark kent’s play like superman? That our coaches are unworldy good so they can make any player a stud while every other coaching staff in the league is pure rubbish?

And while the anti-objective crowd is at it, we may as well just end the combine, suspend 40 times, and all the other measurables on players. Let’s just blindly trust the front office and cheer their every single decision.

What’s most amusing is how that group of fans which tosses around the accusations of phin phan not being “objective” and ’balanced" has little to go on except, well, purely non-objective, as in opinion based, comments and suppositions.

How can you say he, phin phan, is not being objective and then say to simply trust the front office? Since when does trusting, particularly in blind fashion, a front office or group of individuals count as objectivity?

why don’t we all concentrate on what they haven’t done…..what we think they should do….. instead of criticizing what they have already done….because what’s done is done…..
move on the next item up for grabs……. right??!!!!

if he isn’t a guy the coachs feel will be useful he’ll get cut and with no guarenteed money it cost us what? Bring in Faggans too IF their precieved flaws are correctable we gain depth and nichel/dime coverage if their flaws are something that can’t be worked through bye bye birdie!

CB on Day 1

I find myself somewhat conflicted with this post, and the other ones of this theme.

My first thought is in regards to the title of the series “Numbers can’t lie”. As a finance professional, I take a bit of exception to this title. Anyone who has ever worked in accounting or finance can tell you that numbers can always lie. Numbers can be manipulated to tell you whatever you want. The more skilled you are with statistical analysis, the better you can make them lie.

My second thought is that, I do question the signing of Green and this post does pose a compelling argument. I have never seen Green play (that I recall), and was definitely hoping for a Bodden signing earlier in the free agency period.

Hence my conflict. I disagree with the theme of the post, in that the statistics tell a story that can’t lie. But I tend to agree with the overall conclusion that Green is a questionable signing.

I am all for the use of statistical analysis to compliment qualitative discussion in forming an argument. I think a more apt title would be “Numbers I have selected to highlight the position I am taking” rather than “Numbers can’t Lie”. I would also be interested in reading similar analysis, but about a topic other than how a decision is terrible.

I do appreciate the amount of effort that went into this article though. it’s a well articulated argument.

Post-Busters Na-na-nah-na-nah

Post-Busters Na-na-nah-na-nah

PhinPhan is quickly becoming one of my favorite posters on this site.

Nicely constructed argument using the stats that are available. Here is the thing that I want to know from our FO. You know that they have these stats available to them prior to making the Grove and Green signing, so what compelled them to make the signing? What observations of play were made that told them that these players are better than their stats?

Gut instincts when they fail get people fired in this business. Because a GM or a coach or scout better have justification for the signings or recommendations. If you cannot justify a pick or a signing with stats, then what are you using?

everyone got the stat-love/hate off their chests now? It’s really getting ridiculous and tiresome, that every single article that contains a stat and a less-than-glowing opinion about something turns into a all-out fight over who likes stats, or what’s the best way to cheer for the team, or whether or not we should criticize the FO.

I love having debates here, but they should never get personal, whether someone openly attacks another, or if you just feel like you’ve been completely insulted just because of a disagreement. Some of the vets can tell you (Nat, Lefty, Neo, back me up this), when I was the new guy around here, I took every disagreement to heart as if it was a condemnation of who I was as a fan. But that’s not it. We can have arguments, we can get heated and try to press our point, but at some point everyone has to realize that, sometimes, you can’t change another person’s mind, no matter how many cool analogies or stat-based arguments you come up with.

The bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with taking a critical look at a personnel move, just like there’s nothing wrong with trusting that our guys are making the best possible moves for this team. But just because you feel one way and someone else feels differently doesn’t mean you guys all have to bang your heads against the wall trying to change it. So if someone thinks Jake Grove was a bad signing because we overpaid, that’s fine. If you disagree, disagree, and be done with it. We won’t know until the situation has played itself out, so battling about who’s right is pretty pointless now. Make your point, agree to disagree, and move along to the next debate.

I’m just really tired of seeing this argument surface every week it seems. Lighten up people, it’s a football blog, not the Geneva conference.

I am a big fan of your writing. I definitely understand where you are coming from when you write your articles- I know that you don’t form an opinion and try to cherry pick to back it up.

With that being said, to play a bit of the Devil’s Advocate here -I can also easily see why some people may accuse you of it. I would very much like to see some kind of counterpoint to the negative opinion. Its one thing if it doesn’t exist, but anyone here who reads most of the ‘regular’ Dolphins sites has seen pros and cons listed so they know there is something there.

By omitting any mention of the positives I think you open yourself up to that criticism.

For example- everyone’s favorite blogger Armando got a scouts opinion of Green- and he rated him a 63 to Goodman’s 65 grade. So by that measure we got 97% of the corner for 60% of the yearly salary, less than a third of the guaranteed money, and 40% of the time commitment. Mando also posted a breakdown of Faggins- where there WERE a lot of negatives, but he also said he has a lot of success lined up inside against slot guys. I mean, he may not be the best, but he has hung around the league for more than double the average career for an NFL player so he must be doing something right somehow.

Even if you counter those points after wards, just mentioning something like this makes the post seem like it is coming from a neutral spot instead of having an agenda.

In a similar item, I think you unfairly or too strongly dismiss the fact that they were signed as an indicator that they have some worth or potential. Blindly following the FO is one thing, but just looking at the numbers and dismissing them as mistakes offhand is just as unfair. They (the FO) have access to stats too, as well as game film, experience playing against many of them, and even relationships with former colleagues to provide them insight we don’t have.

I understand that a lack of production raises a HUGE red flag, but I just wouldn’t be so quick to describe a signing as a failure or mistake. The lack of production should be a warning that a more in depth look is required, not the be all end all IMO. Even the fan opinions- they are nice, but too easy to dismiss as cherry picked or uneducated. Trying to track down a scouting report, or even better- a film review is probably more fair.

Like I said, I don’t believe in just trust the FO, but don’t you think that the fact that the FO has signed these guys means that something – somewhere indicated that these guys did something that convinced the FO they have the potential to add value to the team? For example, not to sound like a jackass, but I thought I raised a semi-decent counterpoint to your Grove post when I mentioned some stats and quoted a film review against NE and the NYJ and I was disappointed to see no comments from you there as I was interested to see what you thought. Shouldn’t Grove’s performance against our 2 toughest division rivals be considered when we are judging his signing?

Again, I’m just playing Devil’s Advocate to an extent because I go through the same process as you do when I write, and I know where you are coming from. I just think that if consider the value these guys bring to the team (even if you then proceed immediately to debunk it) would help make the debate around here not just more civil- but more worthwhile.

this is getting crazy!

I respect ur opinion…..can we just agree to wait this out? Rejoin this after we actually get these guys in practice? Revisit the CB debate after we add 2 rookie studs?

Again….dont wanna bash ya….just dont agree with all the doubt. After a 10 game improvement…you have to see why most fans just dont have it in them to think this regime doesnt have our best intrests at heart.

What it comes down to is….Im glad we are not dedicating ALLOT of money to these CB’s that will be over the hill half way through their contract.

I always go back to Sam Madison…i LOVED him…but even then i agreed not to pay him for his late 30’s……..turns out that was a good move.

I get what ur saying…and i agree in places. I def see the free agent report card from last year worries people. What i want people to remember is last year we started with nothing….we kinda had to bring in guys and hope..and overpay cuz nobody wants to be on a 1-15 rebuilding….this year i believe we have less holes….but its the same at CB…the fridge is empty….so we kinda gotta go for quanity rather than quality…and then go to the grocery store and buy NEW lol

BELIEVE IN THE CODE…MOVE THE HYPHEN….11-5…15-1 LOL

ERIC GREEN AND PETEY….PRO BOWL….haha

evaluation stolen from the herald.

Cornerback Eric Green: ESPN.com analyst/former Browns scout Matt Williamson said Green is a below-average starter and a step down from Andre’ Goodman, who joined Denver: ``I wouldn’t say there’s anything he’s great at. He isn’t a thumper in the run game. He seems to be playing a little worse than he did earlier in his career.’’

Williamson said Miami passed on numerous players better than Green, including Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, Bryant McFadden and Phillip Buchanon.

btw: I think williamson is a pretty bright player/team evaluator who hasn’t been corrupted by the ESPN spotlight yet and as a result his evaluations are usually pretty accurate and politics free.

You don’t drown on an island. You dehydrate!

numbers ≠ pursuit angle…

Well theres lots of speculation going on about our new CB and our interview guys just one thing to thank about is Goody was shit too these last couple of years and was really only good cause of wat happen wit our coaches and the way they taught them iam still hopeing for a few good CB’s come from the draft and mab another good one FA and there is still 2 out there that would have to be better than wat we got if we dont get a starter in the draft or aquire a real starter in FA soon i thank that J.Allen will be our starter hes younger faster stronger and has better hands than Green JMO.

bringing him in for a workout doesn’t mean a signing, Hell we worked out Harvin and now thanks to his great pro day he will most likely lie beyond our reach.