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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Numbers Can't Lie: Top 5 Prospects List

I'm getting this column up a day early this week because I'll be busy skiing during my usual posting day on Thursday.

One of the aspects of baseball that I think is missing to some extent from the NFL is any sort of true developmental league.  Obviously, the long player progression timeline in baseball makes minor-league teams an essential.  In football, rookies are generally older and more prepared to play then their baseball counterparts.  But there still exists a section of young, untested players in the NFL that should be considered prospects.

The only difference between a football prospect and a baseball prospect is that the football prospect is generally stuck behind a player or two on the depth chart and is only able to show their abilities in practice or in limited on-field opportunities.  In baseball, minor leaguers get to play every day down on the farm as they work their way up through the system until they reach the big league club.

Star-divide

In both sports, the value of obtaining great prospects is key to the long term success of the team.  Obviously, these are young players and thus they will be more likely to help the team in the future than some past-his-prime free agent.  Second, they are cost-controlled in the sense that they are usually on their rookie contract or some very modest free agent deal.  Having players like this rise to become prominent role players or even enter the starting lineup is the basis of constructing a great team because of how much salary relief it provides.  Think of the production that a player like Channing Crowder or Davone Bess has provided this team.  Then consider that those guys cost the team a combined $1.31 million this season.  The top free agents we signed at each position, Reggie Torbor and Ernest Wilford, on the other hand, cost the team $12.11 million in 2008.

A dollar in the primary free agent market simply cannot come close to the value of a dollar in the draft or in what I'll call the "dented cans bin" (aka undrafted free agents, waiver wire pickups, AFL/CFL signings).

That is where true value comes from, and as Crowder and Bess have shown, it's where the price of purchase is only pennies on the dollar compared to their actual worth.

With all that being said, I think now is a prime time to look at the Dolphins roster and see what kind of prospects we have to keep an eye on.

To be considered for this list, a player must meet the following criteria (borrowed from PFP's definition of a prospect):

  1. Drafted or signed in 2006 or later
  2. Drafted no earlier than round three
  3. Less than five career games started
  4. Still on a free agent contract or their original contract

The fourth rule is there to rule out players like Patrick Cobbs.  Once you sign an extension with the team, you can't be considered a prospect anymore since you've obviously proven yourself at that point.

So without further ado, I present to you the first Dolphins Top 5 Prospect List:

5.  S Tyrone Culver

It's clear that the coaching staff likes Culver since he basically assumed the role of the extra defender in most dime packages and some nickel packages by the end of the year, passing guys like Joey Thomas and Jason Allen on the depth chart.  He made the most of his limited playing time as well, recording 35 tackles, 3 passes defensed and 1 interception.  Even though he was released once during the season, he was brought back the very next week.  He played a big role on special teams too, with 9 tackles.

Given the paucity of quality safeties currently on the team and the fact that one or both of last year's starters (Bell and Hill) may not be brought back, Culver is looking at a significant increase in playing time.  That increased opportunity may be all he needs.

4. G/C Andy Alleman

Alleman was originally a third-round draft choice of the Saints in 2007, but when he was released in the final roster cut-downs this offseason, Miami jumped on the chance to submit a waiver claim for him.  He started seeing game action quite quickly, when it became obvious that Ikechuku Ndukwe was struggling mightily to hold down the right guard position by himself.  So a rotation of Ndukwe and Alleman was instituted, gradually exposing Alleman to increased game snaps.  When Justin Smiley was lost for the season in week 13, Alleman had proven enough that he took over the left guard spot and started there for the rest of the year, even while the coaches experimented with playing Samson Satele at right guard while Al Johnson played center.

Given his rapid ascendency this season, it's still quite amazing to think how raw he is as an offensive lineman.  [Check out this pre-draft story on Alleman to learn a little more about him.]  It's important to remember that Alleman started off his college career as a defensive end at Pitt before switching to defensive tackle.  He then transferred to Akron where he began the conversion to guard.  He has only been playing guard for three years really, and even when he came to Miami, the coaching staff had him playing a lot of center.

With another offseason to learn all the intricacies of his new position, I feel that Alleman will be an important member of this offensive line in the future.  Not necessarily as a starter, mind you, but as a swing guard who can play either position in a pinch and who can reliably be called on to start if injuries strike again.

3. WR Brandon London

Another waiver wire find by Parcells and Ireland, London is a valuable prospect primarily for his size.  Quite frankly, Miami has its share of small receivers already (Ginn, Bess, Camarillo) and desperately needs a big-bodied complementary receiver.  Ernest Wilford was a gigantic bust and nobody really sees him sticking around next year.  London saw playing time over Wilford throughout the season largely because London could play special teams.  He finished with 6 special teams tackles.

But it's his promise as a receiver that gets him on this list.  I talked a few weeks ago about how important a WRs' height/BMI combo is to his eventual performance ceiling, and London has the type of frame that could potentially put him into one of the four elite categories (tall).  He's currently listed as 6'4", 210 lbs.  But he entered the draft at 215 lbs., and his exact height was given as 6044 (6 feet, four and four-tenths inches).  If he could get his weight up to about 221 or 222, he would fall into the "tall" category of elite receiver.  He's a bit of a bean-pole at the moment, so putting on that much extra weight may not work for him, but it's something to try this offseason.

Other coaches have raved about his potential, and if he can tap into all of it, he just may become the best WR on this team. [Note: He still hasn't signed that new contract yet, so he's still eligible for this list.]

2.  OLB Cameron Wake

Signing Wake from the CFL was akin to a baseball team signing a dominant player from one of the Dominican or Japanese leagues.  The talent level he faced up there obviously doesn't compare to what he'll see in the NFL, but dominance is dominance, and I'm interested in any young player who has already achieved that kind of production on a professional level.  He may not be any good against the run, but he's a top prospect because of his singular ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

With Miami, he will have to transition to outside linebacker, but his role will be almost entirely to rush the QB.  Charlie Anderson was pretty bad this year, and it's hard to believe Wake can't at least match what he did on the field.  He has a lot to prove if he wants to start in the future, but he has the potential to be this team's next David Bowens, which isn't too shabby.

1.  G Donald Thomas

There's really not much at all to go on when it comes to Donald Thomas, but his potential upside is tremendous.  Thomas is similar to Alleman, in that they are both still extremely raw and adjusting to new positions.  But Thomas is unique in that he is so new to the game of football itself, not just his position.  Thomas walked on at UCONN (having never played before) and began his career as a defensive tackle and end.  He then switched to tight end before finally settling in as a guard.  Taken in the sixth-round last year, nobody really expected Thomas to be the starting right guard by day one, but a lack of better alternatives and Thomas' great training camp offered him a golden opportunity.

Of course, he only ended up playing in that one game, before being placed on Injured Reserve.  But the reviews from coaches, teammates, and even opposing players have already been amazing.  They talk of the amount of force he hits his man with and how "heavy" his blocks feel.  That's definitely an encouraging sign for someone so young and raw and for a line that needs a lot of work run-blocking.  He even made Gil Brandt's midseason all-rookie team.

Of course, it will be a question if Thomas can return to full strength in time for training camp and if he can get right back on track where he left off.  It's also a fair question to ask whether his ultra-small sample size of game time last year was a fluke or the real deal.  I have him as this team's best prospect for a reason - I think he's the real deal.

So that's my list of Miami's top 5 prospects.  What do you think of it and how would your list look?

 

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

3 recs  |  Comment 24 comments

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I'm very excited about Donald Thomas

How often does a rookie 6th round selection play only one game in the beginning of the year, and everyone from fans to coaches to opposing players get so excited about him? Obviously those who know, know that he is the real deal.

Dolphins and Gators baby!

by gatorfin on Feb 4, 2009 11:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great write up-

Donald Thomas really drew my attention in the offseason and I was extremely saddened to learn he was going on IR.

I am also extremely excited about seeing what Wake can do in the NFL as even half of his CFL production would put him in rarified air.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 4, 2009 12:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like it!

This is my favorite of your posts to date. It is hard not to get excited about these young unknowns. If we hit on just three of these guys as future starters, it says a lot about our talent scouting, which has been to poor in past years. That alone can make the critical difference between rebuilding a short term contender, and a long term dynasty.
nice job.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 4, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for reading

Is this your favorite of mine so far because it’s the most positive and doesn’t have much to do with numbers? haha, I’m just joking.

It is telling though that only one of the guys on the list was drafted by the team, and he was drafted by the new regime. That speaks poorly of our past drafts but that shouldn’t be shocking news to anyone.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 4, 2009 2:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

LOL

no, not shocking news at all. :)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 4, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You guys already know how much I like London

But I’m not sure how an extra 10lbs will fit him. I’m sure he could put it on in upper body muscle and not lose his speed or quickness. And his quickness is a definite strength, as anybody who watched him get off the ball vs 2 guys on punt coverage.

Sparano has said that Thomas will be ready for offseason programs, so that’s a huge plus. I really think he’s going to be one of the best young guards in the league very soon.

Culver is nice player, but I don’t know if he’s the kind of ballhawking FS we want. I’d love to see him continue to play in Nickel and Dime packages, and provide depth behind whoever we end up with. Personally, I’d like to see us draft a FS that can start right away, whether it’s Delmas, Rashad Johnson, or somebody else.

Alleman is another versatile interior OL, which is a common theme on this team it seems. Satele can play C or G. Alleman and Johnson can do the same. I think drafting another combo C/G (Alex Mack, Eric Wood) would solidify the interior line at all three spots, especially if Smiley can fully recover.

And I agree with Lefty, this is my favorite of all your posts so far lol. I’m just not a big numbers guys, so the other ones that you’ve done haven’t really appealed to me. Just a difference in preference I guess. Good job though, I goo’ed it.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 4, 2009 3:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

you like London?

really? I’ve never been there, but they say it’s nice.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 4, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

i just posted this in another thread about “numbers”:

i like statistics and numbers used as "indicators" to have a discussion around, but in football, I really think that the numbers themselves rarely tell the whole story. When I see arguments that rely on the numbers, I tend to discount them a bit.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 4, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Culver is not a FS

Culver was the backup SS. So wondering if he is a ballhawking FS is not what you should be doing. MIA was at the Senior Bowl scouting "FS"s. They have already mentioned wanting to re-sign Yeremiah Bell, so Bell and Culver look to be the two SSs. Hill will likely be re-signed, so Hill and whoever we draft out of the FSs we scouted will be the two FSs.

by mred on Feb 4, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I saw many plays where Culver and Bell were the two safeties on the field this season.

Nowhere have I been able to find where they specify which safety he is, so going by what I’ve seen, he played mostly FS. I’d like to see us re-sign Bell and Hill, and draft a starter at the FS spot, because I don’t think Hill is the answer. If Culver is a SS, that’s fine. I just didn’t see him playing in the box much when he was in the game.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 4, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Developmental Leagues

These leagues start up all the time, or try to at least. I agree that each team should have a farm league like baseball does, Boston Red Sox have the Paw Sox, but it seems to cost to much money for the owners. So others start up on their own with out funding from the NFL:

AAFL http://www.allamericanfootballleague.com/index.php
suppose to start in April 2008, pushed to some time in 2009

United National Gridiron League http://www.ungleague.com/index.php
suppose to start Feb 2009 pushed to April 2009

UFL http://www.ufl-football.com/home
Not the one from the 80’s but suppose to start in Fall 2009, Jim Fassel has signed to be a coach.

Start up in Fall is a bad idea, if you look at the USFL, it had success in the Spring, but as soon as it tried to compete in the Fall it went bankrupt.

Enjoy!

The Patriots Suck

by k2oconnor on Feb 4, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Intresting ideas

especially the one with college rules.

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Feb 6, 2009 8:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the links

Yeah, I’d love to see something like MLB’s AAA teams, but that just isn’t feasible for the NFL, I think.

But it does make it hard for a lot of young guys with true potential but not a lot of current value, since any prospect takes up a spot on the 53 man roster.

The practice squad is nice, but they still aren’t getting any game action.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 4, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

A league like this would work

I know the UNGL was going to start playin late Jan early Feb with players who completed 4 years of school. The season would be over by the NFL Draft giving players the ability to still be drafter by the NFL.

Also I thought NFL teams could fourm 8 Minor league teams, if you will , and each allocate a set number of players to the teams to play. It can be during the season or in the offseason, but it would help develop younger players.

The Patriots Suck

by k2oconnor on Feb 4, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's very much what the NFL needs to do

Get alligned with one of these leagues and roll it into a developmental league for the NFL. Don’t try to do the NFL Europa thing, cause it loses money because you are playing in countries that don’t really care about the sport. Get some “minor league” football teams in non-NFL cities. Start with like 16 teams, with each NFL team sharing a minor league team with another NFL team. They can have a 60 man roster, with 30 for each team. It’s dilluted talent, but that’s why it’s a developmental league.

I don’t know if it would work, but I think it could work.

Portland
OKC
Lincoln
El Paso
Colorado Springs (pushing Denver area, but oh well)
LA????
Salt Lake City
Orlando
Richmond
Mobile
Baton Rouge
Louisville
Honolulu
Des Moines
Las Vegas
Boise

"The dolphin is one of the fastest and smartest creatures of the sea. Dolphins can attack and kill a shark or whale. Sailors say bad luck will come to anyone who harms one of them." - Joe Robbie, Oct 8, 1965 upon announcing the name of the new AFL Miami football team.
****Keeper of the Phinsider Comment Goo-ing Plasma Cannon****

by Mosul_DolFan on Feb 4, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I would love it-

especially if they play in the offseason so it I don’t even have to contemplate baseball.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 4, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol i hate having to contemplate baseball lol

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that Cbdolphin is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08. and 09.

by finsxfactor on Feb 4, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

contemplate basketball

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Feb 6, 2009 8:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

can we add a place in nj...lol

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that Cbdolphin is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08. and 09.

by finsxfactor on Feb 4, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a great idea..

except the funding would have to come from NFL owners, and I’m not sure if they’d be willing to shell out the extra money, not only for the team itself, but for stadium rentals, and that’s 30 more players that they have to have under some kind of contract… it’s a costly venture.

But it’s not a bad idea at all, because I’m sure there’s lots of very good football players that, for whatever reason, didn’t get a shot at the league, or squandered their first opportunity and won’t get another one. There’s a ton of semi-pro teams down here in FL, and there is some damn good players on those teams. So you would definitely have no shortage of players. You would have to get creative to bring in fans. And they would either have to go with a supplemental draft after the main draft, or just sign guys up regionally and open all the teams up to any NFL team instead of affiliating them.

The idea definitely has legs, but the finances are probably the only thing really holding it back..

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 5, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with the finances

The owners saw the hemorage that was NFL Europa, so they won’t do it again.

"The dolphin is one of the fastest and smartest creatures of the sea. Dolphins can attack and kill a shark or whale. Sailors say bad luck will come to anyone who harms one of them." - Joe Robbie, Oct 8, 1965 upon announcing the name of the new AFL Miami football team.
****Keeper of the Phinsider Comment Goo-ing Plasma Cannon****

by Mosul_DolFan on Feb 5, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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