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Thoughts on Thursday's Developments: A "Fine Line"

Who says the NFL has dead periods?  As it turns out, the franchise tag deadline creates a lot of news.  And as Thursday unfolded, it really got me thinking. 

Take everything I say here with a grain of salt - I reserve the right to change my opinion multiple times (and likely will).  But basically, what is to follow is my initial reaction to everything that transpired on Thursday.

So where should I start?  I guess I should begin with how I want to feel - and some of you might already feel this way.  I'd like to feel good about this front office.  I'd like to sit here and say it's great that Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland are sticking to their guns and don't seem to be in a rush to overpay to retain some of their own key free agents.  They clearly have a value set for each of their players and they are showing some testicular fortitude and holding steady with their beliefs.

They refuse to give in to their knee-jerk reactions like some might.  They aren't panicking because Jordan Gross and Max Starks are off the market, meaning Vernon Carey is now the best tackle available - which will result in a potentially large contract for Vern.  They don't seemed fazed that the Rams' franchised O.J. Atogwe, which means Yeremiah Bell is probably the best available free agent safety (regardless of "free" vs "strong").  And just because Karlos Dansby got franchised, that doesn't mean this front office will now over-value Channing Crowder and give in to his financial demands.

That's terrific - or at least that's how I want to feel.  After all, Bill Parcells has forgotten more about football than I will ever know.  So why should I worry or second-guess, right?

Maybe.  But I just can't shake the feeling that this offseason isn't going to go exactly how I had hoped.  And by that, I don't want to sound like I'm referring to how many of the "star" free agents are now off the market, having either re-signed with their teams or having been slapped with the franchise tag.  I wasn't hoping the Dolphins would land star free agents.  That rarely happens and that isn't the "Parcells way."

But what I had hoped was for the Dolphins to fill some of their needs.  Back in January, following the playoff loss to Baltimore, I assumed that the more pressing team needs were (in no particular order): center, guard, receiver, outside linebacker, nose tackle, and cornerback.  But now, with how things seem to be shaping up, there could potentially be more holes opening up.  To that above list, you can add tackle, inside linebacker, both safety positions, and add an emphasis to cornerback.

Just think about this for a second.  The Dolphins' two leading tacklers are both in danger of leaving Miami.  Three-fourths of the Dolphins' starting secondary remains unsigned.  And their starting right tackle, who also happens to have experience at left tackle and is essentially Jake Long's backup, might get a chance to test the market - where other teams are sure to throw out more money than the Dolphins will want to toss at him.

Add to all that the idea of basic economics - as more teams lock up their own players and remove them from the market (therefore reducing the supply), the demand for the remaining players remains either unchanged or increases, which will result in very large price tags - and I think you can begin to see why I'm feeling a little anxious.

So let's build through the draft, right?  That's this regime's motto - and is what some fans continue to preach left and right.  That's all well and good - but what if this regime winds up with more "Shawn Murphys" rather than "Donald Thomases"?  The draft is a crap-shoot, no matter how you slice it.

Maybe I'm just being paranoid - something that happens when you're a Dolphins fan and you've lived through some of our past regimes.  But I think the bottom line, to me, is that this team has more holes now than they did in January.  And when you deal with your own free agents, there's a fine line between being "strong-minded" and being "hard-headed" - a fine line between having a plan and being stubborn.

Right now, I'm not sure where this front office currently sits.

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments |

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It's pokerface time. Who's gonna blink.

I think Parcell’s & co aren’t in scramble mode. His track record will make a more than a few agents pause. As well, as I said before, there are them one or two (hell, three) vets out there that want in.
God, I wish I knew the plan. Husker, Finz, Nick, & others hit on it….

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."

by Tunaflipper on Feb 20, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, I'm not 'sposed to be here. I'm workin'

Tell no one.

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."

by Tunaflipper on Feb 20, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Its interesting,

from seeing some comments all over the web and news sites, my take is basically that if they let some of this FA´s go it is because this regime, more than wanting to strictly rebuild through the draft or not wanting to overpay this guys, just dont think this players are good enough. Maybe to Bill and Sparano and Jeff, Kendall Langfords and Philip Merlings and Donald Thomases are the prototype of players they want to build their franchise around. So I think the most important key here is that we are seeing this from a couple of points of view:
1- we want to win now or at least keep being competitive- we look at yeremiah bell or andre goodman (both who arent getting any younger) and say “gee, this guys are good at their position dont let them go”.
2- we are forgetting that we are in a 3 year rebuilding process, which means two things we just havent been able to understand through this couple of weeks:
 a) You cant throw huge contracts at FA
 b) You have to get YOUNG and that means that eventhough you want to keep good enough players on the team, you have got to let them go and RENOVATE through the draft, to get the kind of players that will fit your mold.

And who are we kidding, neither Bell or Goodman or Crowder are great players, they are good at best and helped our rookies into the line up. And if we stay in the same line we are drafting wise, even if we let Bell , Crowder and Goodman go, our next Langford could be a stud CB, our next Bell could be a 4th round parcells type of guy, and our next Crowder could be even Laurinatis or Maualuga. And now you got what you want out of a rebuilding process ; 1- Young players, and most importantly 2- Young players that you chose because they are your type of guy. Parcells guys and most importantly one day Dolphin prototype players.

by MauMontaV5 on Feb 20, 2009 12:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well said

I can understand why Matty is worried, Afterall the Fins organization has done too great in FA and the draft for the past 10 or so years. But this is a new regime that knows what they are doing.

"I have nothing to declare except my genuis."

-Oscar Wilde

by Neo on Feb 20, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

MauMonta

just said precisely what I spent a good ten minutes typing up, haha..kudos for efficiency.

I wouldn’t worry about it. There is plenty of depth in this year’s draft for the OL, so letting Carey walk might not be the worst thing. Besides, like he said, the regime just might believe he isn’t worth the salary. Think about it. If we get a player in, say, the third round, he could be up to Carey’s caliber in a mere season or two, and cost much less while still under the draft contract. It’s smart business, and even though we want to see a win-now mentality because of the hardships we’ve endured waiting for this franchise to turn around, letting players like Bell and Hill and Goodman go may actually be our best move.

Besides..who knows..maybe the release of Carey/Bell/Crowder gives us the room to sign a Jason Brown, who, while paid a ridiculous amount of money, is extremely young and extremely talented with a high ceiling. He might bring a pricey tag, but he’s a Parcells type of guy build-wise for a center and is precisely what the OL needs to bring the power running game back to Miami.

That’s not to say I expect them to sign him..but employing the top-paid C in the league might be an option these guys are willing to utilize because of the positives, and if letting go of our top free agents allows that to happen, I’m all for it. That being said, we’ll probably forgo any huge signings and bring in the Bobby Carpenters of the league in the offseason before drafting a Mack or Unger in April. But I sure hope I’m biting those words in a week.

by Dave.Phuller on Feb 20, 2009 12:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

"testicular fortitude"

lol…….that was just awesome. Yea, its a crap shoot…but, we have some pretty good players rolling the dice don’t we? MauMonta did great with his post……and I’ve posted elsewhere that this is still year 2 of the rebuild. Patience, and testicular fortitude from us the fans as well. I have a strong feeling, going into camp we’ll all be saying…….“ahhh, I see what’s going on now….”

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Feb 20, 2009 1:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

well said my man

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 20, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't say that I blame you for feeling like we're heading in the wrong direction so far

but remember last year, when all we did was continue to purge guys from the roster, and it never seemed like we were getting anything back, or filling the holes we were creating by letting guys go.. then by the time the next season started, we all saw the direction this regime was going in.

I think that may happen again this year. Some of our FA’s will be purged, and it will appear that more holes are being created than are being filled, then, through smart FA moves and shrewd drafting, we’ll once again start next season better than last. I know that we all (me included) want to see our guys return, because we followed them for the last year or so, and feel like they can positively contribute to our team… but Parcells and Co. are all about results, and if they feel like they aren’t getting the results they want from a player, they won’t waste time with him. He’ll be gone, and they’ll bring in somebody they think can get it done.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 20, 2009 1:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not much to add

other than that I agree 100% with the guys above. It’s OK to look at the situation and worry but to be fair I don’t think any of the guys you mention are worth the kind of money they’re going to demand IMO. If someone else is prepared to offer big money then fair enough, they walk. I think this FO has a clear plan and if they really were keen to keep any of these guys around it’d have been a done deal right now. Keep the faith Matty :)

C'mon over to Shady's world, MiamiDolphins.co.uk

by ShadyMDUK on Feb 20, 2009 3:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I can def sympathize w/this
Maybe I’m just being paranoid – something that happens when you’re a Dolphins fan and you’ve lived through some of our past regimes.

The past 8+ years have been really damaging to any Dolphins fan’s “psychology” as far as just being able to trust what the front office and coaching staff are going to do. And who knows, maybe we do end up taking 1 step back- but I feel in the end it’ll still be 2 steps forward after even if it isn’t immediately apparent.

1 year is not enough time to put up a true proven track record, I will give you that. But they have shown so far that they do their homework. In the end, none of us know what these guys really look like on game tape, how they take to coaching, act in the locker room, or really bring to the team. The only ones who know all the facts are the guys in the FO, and if they say they are only worth X amount of dollars then I have to believe it until its proven otherwise.

Besides- we lived through ZT and JT getting dumped, and they were two of the greatest Phins of all time. Now we’re gonna get all worried for dumping an injury prone Safety who is closer to my parents age than my own? Or a RT who can hold his own but never really flashed an ability to dominate? Like I said, even if we suffer a temporary setback in the W-L column, we will ultimately be getting ahead by getting younger players who learn to do things the way we want from the start.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 20, 2009 6:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

This roster is still in the process of getting completely overhauled from the Cam Cam / Saban regimes. Just because we saw improvement and the playoffs last year, I don’t think we should fool ourselves into thinking that this team is close to a Superbowl. Substantial roster changes are still needed.

Remember 1-15 in ‘07. These guys we are all worried about letting go were part of that team. If Parcells had dumped them in ’08 instead of ’09, would we have felt the same way? I think Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano identified the guys that they wanted to keep and those they wanted to let go when they got here. They just couldn’t dump everyone in year one and nothing about those guys play changed their minds in ’08.

This is all part of the their process. I just wonder about the process, because it has been quite a while since a Parcells controlled team won a playoff game.

by ct1361 on Feb 20, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lets face it

We didn’t do a particularly good job in FA last year and we turned out better then OK.
We missed out on Calvin Pace, let Zach go, signed highly productive players like
Chris Crocker, Josh McCown and Ernest “T Bass” Wilford. So leave no doubt we’ll fill some holes get younger and better.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: 2008 AFC EAST CHAMPIONS!!!

by ATS16 on Feb 20, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Amen

I dont really know how I feel but I know you get what you pay for,I still think we need Bell and Carey back I will be happy with just those two and just like Matty said we cant expect to fill all our holes through the draft and expect them to come out and be big players we need to spend some kind of money I know thats not the trifecta way but look at thiseven though some may say we did not have the biggest signings last year and lost ZT and JT.Now Channing did a ok job for replacing ZT as for JT our only real pass rusher came from Porter our d-line did not do a good job at creating pressure,our secondary got burnt,Thomas played all but 2 quarters and we lost Joe to a broken leg and Samson did not have his best year.So it looks like we may be looking for a RT,gaurd,center,NT,CB,FS or SS,WR,and ILB thats alot.
Say what you will but really last years team played how many games against teams with a winning record we had it pretty easy.Now this year we play only 2 teams that had a losing record filling these holes with rookies and second and third tier guys aint going to cut it.

Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518

by Foy on Feb 20, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

No Worries Here

The Trifecta will rebuild this team through the draft and picking up other team’s mistakes, a la Chad Pennington. Think back to the porous O and D lines when they took over. Look at them now. Carey was on his back frequently last year. Better options have to be available in the draft and they know it. Remember, Parcells went to the Senior Bowl for the first time in years. In 2 years, we will be a perennial playoff contender and a Super Bowl contender.

by Sparcells on Feb 20, 2009 10:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Matty, I have 1 recommendation for you.......DECAF!

I get excited this time of year, because aside from the regular season and watching the games, I love the excitement of the first week of free agency. Parcells knows what he is doing. And as you said, whether we agree with what he is doing or not, he has proven results, between last year AND previous franchises. I doubt he has forgotten how to build a franchise. This guy is the closest thing to Don Shula I have seen in my 40 years of watching football.

by dab415217 on Feb 20, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

lol

i do drink a ton of coffee…perhaps making the switch to decaf is a good idea lol

And like you, I love the first week of free agency. Perhaps that’s another reason why I’m feeling a little…anxious.

by Matty I on Feb 20, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

RELAX

NO NEED TO PANIC HERE. THIS IS A LONG PROCESS. I SEE NO PROBLEMS IN TAKING A STEP BACKWARD TO MOVE A COUPLE STEPS FORWARD. LAST YEAR WAS GREAT, BUT THIS REBUILDING TO A YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT CONTENDER IS GOING TO TAKE MORE THAN 2 YEARS. YOU NEED 3 GOOD DRAFTS AND GET PLAYERS IN PLACE BEFORE YOU SEE YOUR TEAM COMPETE YEAR AFTER YEAR. PARCELLS KNOWS WHAT HE’S DOING. HOLES SHMOLES, I HAVE COMPLETE TRUST THAT WITH A COMBINATION OF THE DRAFT AND A COUPLE OF SOLID FREE AGENTS THIS TEAM WILL START TO REALLY TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THIS YEAR AND THEN AFTER NEXT YEARS DRAFT, WE WILL SEE TALENT START TO RISE TO THE EXPECTATIONS THIS REGIME IS GEARING TOWARDS. PATIENCE FRIENDS, PATIENCE. A SUPERBOWL IS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. THATS HOW PARCELLS ROLLS.

by dlux2561 on Feb 20, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

fair point

i’ll relax….but only if you do first and you lose the caps lol

by Matty I on Feb 20, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my bad matty,

thats what i use at work all the time.

by dlux2561 on Feb 20, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

its no problem

it bothers some more than others…..and i’m not one that it really bothers as much. but it does make it seem like you’re yelling lol

by Matty I on Feb 20, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

I pretty much agree with all of the above posts, but i just want to add that, Matty, for the couple of years I have known you through this blog now, you tend to go through this from time to time. I will choose to call it “passion” as opposed to “paranoia”. You remind me of a late, good friend of mine. The guy was sharp, had a great heart, and was pretty rational… until you touched on football, which was a passion of his. And then, if things didn’t seem to be going right, he could get spun up faster than a 78 record.

It’s not so much that I believe that the front office are making all the right moves right now… it’s just that when i look back at last year there was a lot of the same criticism of how they handled several things, from the lack of a big FA participation (remember the expectations when the Fins jumped on Smiley out of the gate, and then…. virtually nothing?), to the ZT cut and the way they handled JT. But the end result worked out pretty well. So as far as I’m concerned, they proved to me last year that they deserve the benefit of the doubt. I might be scratching my head wondering how it is going to shake out, but until they screw it up, I’m not going to assume failure.

All that being said, I DO think they are doing the right thing right now. I don’t think replacing VC through the draft if needed, is that big a deal. Especially if we solve the RG issue. Likewise with Crowder. I don’t expect an 11-5 season next year… Husker’s analogy of building the team being like a Rubik’s cube… sometimes it looks like you are close to putting it all together, but then you have to mix it up again to get all the pieces to fall in the right place. This might be the mixing up phase, and maybe we go 8-8 this year, in order to challenge for the SB next?
Let is play out and let’s see where we end up going into the season.
=)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 20, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No second guessing from this Fins fan

I hear Matty’s unease on the trifecta not blinking or compromising their philosophy in the face of the unknown offseason…. draft, free agency, etc…. Look, the reason we have Parcells is because we trust his track record to make the right moves in the offseason. EVERY offseason is scary because there is always uncertainty, but if our front office acted out of desperation, it would be bad in the long term. We can’t just sign Yeremiah and Channing just because we’re afraid of the unknown. Doing this would only serve to revert us back to the desperate Wannstedt days of trading for Lamar Gordon and AJ Feeley.
We need to trust the trifecta here. Obviously we don’t have the benefit of hindsight, but this regime believes it can upgrade, and I put my confidence in them. Yes, I will miss Yeremiah Bell’s presence, but it merely is not good practice to overpay an aging, injury prone player merely because we’re afraid in our abilities to find a suitable replacement.

A good example would be the Steelers. They’ve always been a team that believes in their principles. It seems like every year, going back to the Greg Lloyd and Kevin Greene days, they’ve always lost key players to free agency, and the following year we’re all amazed that they continue their steady play. Even when they lost Joey Porter, they were able to replace him with James Harrison. Miami fans would be up in arms if we had lost Joey. I think perspective and trust in the trifecta is the right frame of mind here.

by shula13 on Feb 20, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i totally agree

im not worried at all. i trust parcells’ judgement. if we dont resign players that because parcells didnt want that player or players. he is a man with a plan and im behind him all the way.

smoking rally bowls for the phins since 2002! oh and screw the jets

by badjah on Feb 20, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am a little disappointed in Matty I

No offense, but I figured you would have a better understanding as to how this has and eventually will transpire. I would never expect this type of paranoia from you. Get a grip! You had hopes of signing Asomugha, Atogwe and K. Dansby, but come on, those guys were definitely going to be either franchised or signed. They represent top talent as their respective positions. You say that you are not basing this post on how there are less star free agents, but it sure does sound as if you are significantly disappointed that these guys are no longer available. It is as if your fantasy dream offseason has already been shot down and because of that, you are kind of freaking out.

Remember, the free agency period hasn’t even started yet you feel that we have not been able to address our needs?!? We just resigned V Carey, so that is off our list. But the rest of the other needs you mention, “center, guard, receiver, outside linebacker, nose tackle, and cornerback” coupled with the added necessity of “tackle, inside linebacker, both safety positions, and add an emphasis to cornerback.” were not necessarily new problems. The way I see it is that our most pressing offseason needs are center, inside and outside linebacker, nose tackle, cornerback and safety. Wide receiver would not be as pressing a need considering the inability of CP10 to consistently be a threat with the deep game.

With that in mind, we all know they are looking to get bigger at center. That should mean that we will either sign a FA or draft someone. Do not forget that in effect, the acquisition of a new center will automatically give depth to our guards by moving Satele down. I think by just doing that, it provides an upgrade to our center and guard spots. With Smiley, D THomas, S Satele and the rest of the underlings battling for the top two spots, I think we are fine at the guard position. There is no real practical need to spend an early pick to pick up a guard. Plus, guards are usually the easiest of the offensive lineman to plug into your lineup with the expectation of efficiency.

Both our inside and our outside linebackers, even if we were to keep Crowder, still need to be addressed and upgraded. I do not have confidence in the depth of our linebackers, and knowing Parcell’s historical tendencies, I am not worried whatsoever as to how he will go about making upgrades to this unit. I do believe that we will draft at least two linebackers with the potential for more. Plus, I do believe we will also sign a free agent with Bart Scott being the most likely initial target.

Nose tackle could be addressed by either a draft pick or a free agent. No real worries there yet, but the need for an apprentice to J Ferguson is necessary.

Cornerback is a position that I believe will need to be addressed by both free agency and the draft. Whether we resign Goodman or not, we most probably will sign someone else to compete at the nickel or dime. In addition, I am quite sure that the trifecta are aware of the need to reinvigorate this corps with some youth. I welcome the possibility of taking a cb in the second round to throw into the mix. Best case scenario: Will Allen, Andre Goodman, a fa signee (Bryant McFadden anyone?), a first day draft pick, Jason Allen, and Nate Jones. Worst case scenario: Will Allen, fa signee, first day draft pick, Jason Allen, Nate Jones. I am comfortable with either potential scenario.

Safety? I am not too worried about Yeremiah Bell leaving. If he stays then great. If he leaves, which I highly doubt, then it will be fixed somehow. Yeah, Yeremiah is great, but he is replaceable. So I suppose I can shed light on the best case and worst case scenarios. Best case: Yeremiah and R Hill resign. We also spend either a 1st day pick or a 4th round pick on a safety. Starters would be Bell and the pick (if he is capable of showing that he can start immediately) with both Hill and Culver backing up. Worst case: Neither Hill nor Bell are resigned. We spend an early pick on a safety and sign a fa or two. Start the pick with either the fa signee or T Culver. Even with the worst case scenario, we will get younger at the safety position.

So, keep this all in perspective. We will most likely sign at least one more out of Bell, Hill Goodman, Crowder, with the high likelihood of resigning more. In this front office I trust!

by picklescapone on Feb 21, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Like Pickles(if that is your real name) I'm not worried about Yeremiah Bell leaving

No one would pay him Ed Reed Money

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Feb 21, 2009 10:10 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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