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Numbers Can't Lie: Becoming At Peace With Numbers

This week, I'm going to eschew the inclusion of lots of numbers or tables in my column. (Cue the loud cheers from many of you.)

However, I'm doing this in order to talk to you all about...numbers and tables and statistics.  (Cue the ranting and raving from those same people.)

You see, most of you probably noticed the uproar that broke out here about a week or so ago regarding the influx of statistical discussion and analysis on this site.  To be honest, I've been noticing the backlash ever since I started my weekly column at The Phinsider.  While I've gotten several encouraging responses letting me know that there is a definite population of the readership here that enjoys and wants to see more statistical-based analysis, there has been just as many of you that are, for whatever reason, infuriated by its recent inclusion.

And I'm not sure why that is.

Star-divide

After all, this is a Miami Dolphins fan site - one that is dedicated to more than just following the news aspect of the team.  The writers for this site, particularly those chosen to be regular front-page posters/columnists, strive to analyze what the news actually means and present it in an enjoyable and informative manner.  A majority of that analysis comes in the form of subjective/scouting-based opinion.  But confining ourselves solely to that type of analysis leaves a veritable treasure trove of information and avenues of discussion completely in the dark.  One would think that, as fans, we would all be at least receptive to the possibility of thinking about the team we are passionate about in a new manner.

I don't expect everyone to agree with the conclusions that arise from some of the statistical studies.  But to hear that some members of the site refuse to read these articles or visit the site as often as they used to because of this new content is, quite frankly, troubling and indicative of a more widespread close-mindedness among many of the readers here.

To some degree and on some level, that apprehension is understandable.  By and large, football statistics have remained relatively static since the NFL was created.  Anyone who grew up watching football is inherently comfortable when it comes to your run of the mill statistics like rushing yards and forced fumbles.  To a lot of people, I'm sure many of these new metrics or concepts seem like anathema and that they go against everything they thought they knew about the game of football.  I see this as a basic aversion to change, and the general notion that the way things are must be the best way for them to be.

But that's just a foolish proposition.  The way we think about things should evolve and grow with us.  It may be more comfortable to always think about football the way we did when we first were introduced to it, but for those willing to set aside comfort for a time, there is so much more depth to be found by expanding the ways in which we are willing to examine the game.

I'm not writing this column to try to turn everyone here into a stat-geek like me.  The discussions that we can have amongst each other when we have differing opinions are one of the great attributes of this site.  But that is near impossible to do when people complain about the presence of the content or simply hijack the post and turn it into a two-person conversation that has nothing to do with the original entry, which happens far too often I've noticed.  Instead of complaining about why something was written, tell the author why you disagree and back up your criticism with some evidence or some line of reasoning.  Telling someone that their writing is useless because numbers and tables can't express what it means to love a team is childish and does absolutely nothing to further the conversation.

In case you were unaware, loving numbers and statistical analysis in no way makes you any less of a fan.  Being critical of a player or unit because of what the hard evidence shows does not mean we are against the team.  The reason people like GatorPhan and myself go through the effort to organize these numbers is because of how much we love the Dolphins!  We love them so much we want to know as much as we possibly can about them.  We are not immune to the emotions of fandom simply because we enjoy numbers, but that doesn't prevent us from trying to gain some objective truths about the team at the same time.

In my humble opinion, a player's performance cannot solely be judged simply by watching it.  Obviously, a lot of people here feel that viewing the game on TV is all they need to form the best evaluations of the players they love.  While I deeply respect and appreciate that viewpoint, I do not agree with it.  In the absolutely amazing book Moneyball (I can't recommend it enough) Bill James pointed out that in baseball, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter (essentially the difference between a good hitter and an average hitter) is virtually undetectable through viewing the games.  The difference comes down to one hit every two weeks.  Even if you watched every single at-bat of every player, you'd be hard pressed to notice that kind of difference without a statistic telling you.

And if you can't tell everything accurately just from watching the games, it really helps to start counting things and analyzing the objective data.

For example, let's talk about Nnamdi Asomugha.  Before this offseason, I'm willing to bet a large section of NFL fans had no idea who this player was despite his being the overwhelmingly best cornerback in the league for at least two years running.  Now that he is set to potentially become a free agent, however, everyone seems to know who he is and that he is an amazing talent.  But how can anyone possibly know that unless they think about him statistically?

First of all, he plays in Oakland, so it's fair to say not many of us have seen him play on a week-to-week basis.  Yet, everyone here who vehemently opposes statistics will tell you that he is a great CB.  My question to those people is how do you know that?  Is it because the local columnists and reporters tell you that he is great?  Well how do they know?  I, for one, would never simply sit back and accept who a local reporter tells me is good and who isn't because I don't know how they are arriving at their judgments.

Second, as with most CBs, even if you were to watch a Raiders game on TV, Asomugha will almost never be on the screen when he's in coverage.  So you can't really watch him even if you want to.  So again, I ask, how can you be sure that he is so good?  You certainly can't do it by looking at his simple statistics like tackles and interceptions because any elite CB will never be thrown at enough to compile large numbers of either.  Asomugha compiled 40 tackles and one interception in 2008.  Compare that to Jason Allen's 36 tackles and one interception in far less playing time and one naïve observer may conclude that these players are roughly equal in ability.

No, the only true way to understand how great of a player Asomugha is is to look at less common statistics like charted passes, yards per pass, and success rate.  Charted passes is quite a simple statistic, yet because it is new and not something most people are accustomed to thinking about, it is often cast aside.  But Asomugha was targeted a mere 26 times for the entire season.  That is far and away the fewest number of targets for any starting CB.  His success rate on passes thrown against him was likewise stellar, placing him in the top 5 in the league.

Considering statistics as easy as charted passes and success rate is the only way to separate the performance of Asomugha from Allen.  You may say that you understood that difference already from reading about how Asomugha completely shuts down one half of the field.  Well, those statistics I've mentioned are merely the concrete evidence that backs up those statements.

All I'm trying to get across in this column is that the presence of stats-based articles shouldn't rile everyone up on this site.  This site has a lot of intelligent and civil fans of the Dolphins who should be able to discuss and disagree with one another on any variety of football-related subjects.  It would be a shame if so many of the readers here simply continued to ignore or belittle those community members trying only to further the understanding and enjoyment of the team.

Numbers in football aren't something to be afraid of.  As the Asomugha example shows, most of us already base our judgments of players on statistics, even if we don't know it.  Let's all open up and be a little more receptive of one another from now on, even when it might entail rethinking our own individual approaches to the game.  Who knows, we just may end up learning something from one another.

 

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

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Comments

Display:

Wowwee, that's a lot of text there.

I guess I missed the uproar and for the life of me can’t figure why some would actually get upset. I’ve never been a numbers (I deal in colors) guy but certainly know they’re integral to forming conclusions. I have ton of respect for all that can crunch ’em even though reading them sometimes makes me dizzy.
Are people really refusing to come to the site ’cuz of stats!?

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."

by Tunaflipper on Feb 12, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately yes

And GatorPhan almost stopped writing his articles after all the backlash he received from people complaining about his use of stats.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

only a very few people

we’re talking a handful – at most – that i know of.

but it’s really not that big of a deal – in my humble opinion.

by Matty I on Feb 12, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dont mind the stats

They’re intresting articles, but I’ll admit they get tiring to read, mainly mostly because I’m a Bio major so I’m up to my eyeballs in numbers.

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Feb 13, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said

I’ve definitely enjoyed and appreciated the articles by GatorPhan and you. Keep ‘em comin’!

by JMFlyer1454 on Feb 12, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I for one...

have started to come back to this site thanks to you. Because I got a feeling it was getting to be always the same people posting, and it was turning to some sort of private club. Keep up the hard work.

Thanks Matty, for keeping this site in top shape since the beginning !

by sportssaga on Feb 12, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks a bunch

I really appreciate that.

I think having a wide variety of content is key. The editorial/newspaper style pieces are great, but it helps to keep things fresh by adding different perspectives. And I agree that at times it very much can feel like a private club, and that’s why I was happy to be asked to be a weekly columnist so that I could inject a fresh voice into the conversation.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No...

thank-you for taking the time to do all that reserch !

by sportssaga on Feb 12, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Still

Even if it is only a few people, that’s a ridiculous notion: to refuse to read statistical data presented to you because you don’t understand it? Because it’s new to you? Because it requires you to view the game in a new light, one in which you’ve never done so?

I come to this site daily..well, more like hourly because of the point in time in the NFL season we’re in. I want to see statistical data telling me why we should draft player A in April, or why UFA B is no better than the player we’ve already got on our roster.

Hell, it’s statistics that were based on elite wide receiver groups that was posted about Brandon London that made me realize why we kept him in the first place and why I should be excited about his future with the team.

I don’t know if I speak for everyone who still comes, but I would personally like to thank you and the rest of the Phinsider columnists for putting such hard work into this site for Dolphins fans like myself to fully enjoy and help pass the time during a long off season.

by Dave.Phuller on Feb 12, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree

I think there definitely is a large group of readers here, who even if they don’t post much, really do like to see some of the new content that has been criticized by the more vocal members of the community.

And thanks for commenting on the BMI/elite WR piece I did. That one especially took a lot of flak from the anti-numbers people.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cool

hey you know I am not a big numbers guy in the tratidional sense. I dont crunch em or really go looking for them much. However I love the fact that I get EVERYTHING I need from this site. With guys like you and Gator I get some of everything and anything I dont find I can go and look up on my own (if I really wanted to) but I just dont have to most of the time because of number geeks like you! Hail hail to the number geeks! LOL Keep up the good work! I read this site like a blind man at a wet tee-shirt contest and I gotta say I do love it! Yall take the dry unemotional statistics and present it in a form that allows us to draw our own conclusions. this is a good thing!

by unklphinnie on Feb 12, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

numbers

no need to justify your numbers, they are what makes your blogs and insight unique and worth checking. i’ve always wondered where you get all the stats from. makes this site worth checking in on all the time as opposed to others, which is why i am here every day.

keep up the good work matty

by orandegadsden'shands on Feb 12, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Too many words! Where's all the numbers?

lol j/k.. I actually do read pretty much everything on here, and what I don’t read doesn’t have anything to do with numbers or not, just sometimes the topic doesn’t fit what I’m looking for.

Don’t stop writing the statistical analysis, because I do think it brings another good perspective to this site. Even if I complain about the stats, I still learn stuff from em, and they spark good debate. Keep it up.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 12, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Analyzing the Stats...

…we see that your post had:

Characters: 7204
Words: 1558
Lines: 134
Paragraphs: 20

Clearly, you need to improve on those stats if you want a big contract for next year. :)

by dab415217 on Feb 12, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Seriously?

Ok, first I want to make one thing clear: I hate statistics. I hate them in real life, I hate them in sports, I hate them almost as much as I hate the Patriots. Well, ok, maybe not that bad, but still.

I especially hate statistics in football, because they are more misleading then useful. Is a DE or LB better then another one because they have more sacks, or tackles? Absolutely not! That is heavily dependent on the defensive system. Is a QB, RB, or WR better just because they have more yards? Again, it depends on the system.

Even with team statistics, if a team is leading the league in offensive yardage, that doesn’t necessarily mean they have the best offense, it could just mean that they have poor defense and special teams and have to sustain longer drives.

There are a TON of things that happen on any particular play in football that are not recorded at all, yet can have a monstrous effect on the way the play develops. For instance, you guys should all remember Jake Scott, who is in my opinion one of the best safeties to ever play the game, and is certainly one of, if not the, best Dolphins safety ever. He was very good at finding opposing QBs secrets and determining how they read the play, for instance, he figured out that Joe Namath always watch the Free Safety’s break to read the coverage, and he would take a false first step to fool him.

This would throw off Namath’s read, and would lead to bad throws, interceptions, deflections, or tackles that may be credited to other players, but it was Scott’s first step that changed the whole dynamic of the play.

Statistics cannot measure that, and they never will.

Now, all of that being said, if someone is refusing to come here because of all of the statistics, they’re a moron. That’s like not going to a restaurant because you don’t like one of the items on the menu.

Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi

by ratenxs on Feb 12, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

There are new metrics

A lot of the stats I’m talking about are new advanced metrics which go beyond simple stats like tackles and team yardage.

You are absolutely right that most of the time those things don’t really mean much, but there are ways to parse some information about what happens on the field in a numerical manner. Stats like DVOA and DYAR along with success rates and chart information take context into account and do a pretty good job of accessing performance. If you go beyond the normal stats that everyone is accustomed to, there are some really helpful numbers that actually do mean something.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

DVOA and DYAR..

while interesting, still don’t tell the whole story.

I buy the Football Prospectus from Football Outsiders every season, I have all of them, and I do enjoy reading them. But they still don’t tell the whole story.

Straight off of the FO website, based on DYAR, I refuse to believe that Roddy White is a better WR then Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, or Hines Ward, or that guys like Derrick Ward, Thomas Jones, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, or Sammy Morris are better RBs Brian Westbrook.

My problem isn’t with the statistics themselves, I will admit that they are at least somewhat interesting. My argument is against the title of the thread that “Numbers Can’t Lie,” when, in fact, they can’t really tell the truth, either. I don’t mind statistics as, like you said, a portion of an entire analysis, but they never should be taken as the be-all-end-all analysis, either.

Besides, DYAR and DVOA are still heavily based upon yardage totals, and having more yards =/= better player or team.

Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi

by ratenxs on Feb 12, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well said

….we have not met…I am MHTD and i will be a first round pick in this year’s NFL Draft

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right, i'm not :P

Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi

by ratenxs on Feb 12, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not a numbers guy

but I can see your point. I enjoy football because, for me it is very entertaining. that being said, I come to this site daily to get my “finfix”. I never paid much attention to numbers, and still get bogged down when there are a lot of numbers thrown around. I think ratenxs make a valid point. On the other hand, I have enjoyed the stats analysis that has been done by some of the guys on this site and can see the value of them. I just can’t say that it is my favorite part.

"Never let the competition know what your thinking"
Feringi rule of acquisition #85

by fansince70 on Feb 12, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Numbers

I’m not a big numbers guy, mainly as a lot of them tend to be skewed as there are so many factors involved but I sure wouldn’t get bent out of shape because someone enjoys reading them.

I must admit though that if posts look like they’re too ‘numbers heavy’ then I often skip past them as much of the discussion for me can be based on a false premise. JMHO but figured you’d want to hear feedback, good or bad :)

C'mon over to Shady's world, MiamiDolphins.co.uk

by ShadyMDUK on Feb 12, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

definitely

I understand some people are just not interested in them. That’s fine. I don’t expect everyone here to love them, I just would like to see it be a little more respected and not cast aside.

I just like to hear why some people think a premise is flawed, whether it’s stat-based or opinion based. If you think something is based on a false premise, by all means, let them know. That’s how discussions evolve and opinions and statistics become more refined.

I appreciate the comment.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with the comment about it becoming very cliqueish. I love the stats if for no other reason than to bring them up with buddies and sound smart. Sorry if I have ever forgotten to give credit :(

Also, moneyball is one of the greatest sports books ever written and is a must read for any baseball (or even sports in general) enthusiast. You and gatorphan must keep up the good work! It’s a must for this site, because whether you like it or not statistics are and will remain to be a vital aspect of this game.

by fishstick on Feb 12, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

you know?

Numbers can be skewed. Its FACT, however that doesnt make it wrong! LOL Look at the ’72 season. Numbers said we shouldnt have been that good (plenty of teams with better “numbers” than us that season and based on numbers we ended up as underdogs in the SB…and we all know how that turned out….LOL. Aslo as a newer example look at Zach…there was a guy whos numbers (mostly his physical stats) said he would never be as good as he turned out to be. Again its a logic/statistical basis vs. an emotional/illogical basis. Neither is 100% right or wrong…they all leave room for debate and discussion…which is the whole 100% basis of blogs like this one. We ALL love the Dolphins and we all approch it differently…and you know what? thats a GREAT thing. You know its like TV or Radio…if you dont like it…skip it! How stinking hard is that to understand? I gotta tell ya I missed almost all of the bruhaha of this but the more I read backwards about it…get over it! Some people love numbers…some people hate em…but we all love the Fins and if you really really really dont like checking out the numbers part of what these guys write….write your own! Its not hard! Sit and think about what you want to say and then type it out! Geeze theres a ton of people on here who will take the time to read what you have to say and then give you feedback on it!

MHAO of Course

by unklphinnie on Feb 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just do your thing. . .

If people don’t like it F’em. My favorite thing is the trash talk. Everyone has their own thing. I respect the work that you guys put in to your statistics. But I think that your post was a little weak. Trying to justify your statistical posts is back-peddling. Again, JUST DO YOUR THING. I’ve been pounded in the past by Phinsider pets like RZ and Nicky. . .so what? They can all pound salt in their ass because I’m gonna post what I post. In a nutshell stand behind your stuff and man-up. Screw their buddy club, Whether anyone reads Phatfinfan’s crap or not, I’m part of this thing. At least your stuff involves research. My shit usually makes no sense.

by phatfinfan on Feb 12, 2009 5:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

who are you?

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 12, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

core group

that kiss each others butt and expect others to kiss up to them, and unfortunately a lot of folks do. I’m not making it up Matty, look at the other postings:

“I got a feeling it was getting to be always the same people posting, and it was turning to some sort of private club.”

“I agree with the comment about it becoming very cliqueish”

I’ve been picking at the pets for a while because honestly I do I like to get people wound up, but you’ve got some people that are being turned away because of it. Think about it

by phatfinfan on Feb 12, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

am i a pet?

i like to get people wound up too…. :)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 12, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope that makes sense

I’m not a eloquent writer or a great typist. You asked and I answered.

by phatfinfan on Feb 12, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think u take yourself and this site way to seriously

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 13, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

kiss your boyfriend with that mouth Rebecca?

next time i come to McDonalds make sure my fries are hot…im sick of u slackin on the fryer

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 13, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hot McDonalds fries are wonderful.

The hashbrowns are pretty good too.

by phatfinfan on Feb 13, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the best

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 13, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Stats

McD’s fries have a 35% more (SSAB) Salt-Starch After Bite ratio than other similar chains. This leads to a positive increase in diastolic blood pressure and a inverse effect on bradycardia.

by phatfinfan on Feb 13, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I made all of that stuff up

but it looks good, and you know it!

by phatfinfan on Feb 13, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ur matty's pet

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 13, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Where are the stats...

to back up your point.

In all seriousness, and I’ll repeat what many others have stated already, but I enjoy the diversity this site brings, and that certainly includes the detailed analysis and stats. You guys do a great job of breaking down teams / players and its enjoyable to read. Thanks.

by GT Dolfan on Feb 12, 2009 6:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Its not black or white

Numbers are fantastic…..but if all you have to offer is #’s you found off some site then i just wont have that much fun talking to you. We are here to chat about our team…..some of you make it more fun than others.

Im just not that guy….sports are meant to be fun……i PERSONALLY come here for fun…if i want numbers i know where to go get them.

To each his own….calculate away

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 12, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i agree with you

we are all capable of finding our own numbers on other sites…this is a site for us to talk about the team and our feelings about it, and what we think should be done…this is a place to voice our opinions, not pound everyone with stats til we start seeing numbers in our dreams IMO

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ehh

i understand people putting stuff together and making a “statty post” but after awhile i cant even force myself to read a column some joe schmoe put together that feels dead. just being honest…i dont have time to care that much i guess.

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 12, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

having the occasional "statty" post

is fine, but IMO its getting a bit ridiculous. Theres just too much, and i’m not attacking anyone here, just voicing my opinion, and the stats are becoming a bit overwhelming, and its coming to the point where i dont even read the stats heavy posts anymore, just skim it and read the comments and react to those

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree. i like looking at the numbers as a way to gain insight into a particular topic

but NOT AS the topic. We can talk about whether or not Ronnie is an average of elite RB, but my conclusion will generally be formed from watching the games, which I do, every year, every game.
THEN and ONLY then, if we are discussing how he stacks up against other backs, am I at all interested in comparing some general RB stats. But some of these statistical posts that break down every run, over which line position, on which down, against which team, on which day, in what sort of weather, AND whether or not it was on turf or grass, in the afternoon or at night….. Geez man, you guys lose my interest before you can draw a conclusion.
And worse yet, when these posts spit out number and stats, and then the writer tries to draw a conclusion first, and then apply it to a player, e.g. “These statistics prove that a successful RB will have these (x,y,z) characteristics, and since Ronnie Brown does not possess these characteristics, he is therefor not a successful running back”. Now I watch the games and can see with my own eyes that the conclusion is invalid, yet someone has just taken an hour to write a post using numbers to explain why what I saw in the game was not reality.

And as far as the “advanced metrics”, the old metrics work well enough in 90% of the situations in where it is as all interesting to discuss numbers. These advance metrics simply take into account more variables, and by virtue of that, make the anal-ysis more complicated, without yielding significantly more productive conclusions than the basic metrics.

Now, I don’t intend to leave the site because of people posting something that I find tedious or repetitive. I just ignore the stuff that is not interesting and contribute to things that are more in line with what I like about football – discussions of the games as they are played, the players as they are acquired, and the team as it is built and developed, rather than numerical anal-ysis of those same topics.

That’s my opinion and you have a right to your own.
:)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 12, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why

is ‘some joe scmoe’ who puts together a post with stats different than some joe schmoe who thinks he is Omar Kelly and just throws an opinion piece out there? The fact is, if I was any good at writing opinion articles I’d be getting paid to do it. I’m not good at it, I find it difficult, and I don’t like it. But I do get paid for my skills in math, and I have fun analyzing the team I grew up loving- so thats what I try to bring to the table. People who don’t like math are constantly reminding people who do that not everybody thinks like they do, all I’m asking is that you keep in mind I don’t think like you either. Obviously neither of us gets paid to read or post on this site, we both do it for fun- so why does yours matter more than mine?

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 12, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

dude do ur thing....its cool...just switch it up a bit sometime is all i ask

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 13, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm trying -

it just takes me time- a lot of the stuff you see go up has already been on my hardrive for a while. When I do one of my posts I probably spend 1/3 of my time doing the numbers and the other 2/3 trying to think of an intro that doesn’t look like an elephant stepped on the key board – so an ALL wordy-like post is going to take me a bit and between my job and trying to put my house back together I mostly only get to write on my lunch breaks- + a few comments at night here and there.

My only question is- if do an opinion piece- are you gonna break down some stats for us ;)?

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 13, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah some basic numbers come straight off of NFL.com-

but I can promise you that just because they look like nice compact, pretty numbers once they are posted- a LOT of the stuff PhinPhan and I come up with is not available anywhere else on the web and took pages and hours of research. Whether you care about them or not is up to you -but that doesn’t mean nobody is interested in how accurate the Phinsider community projections were, or how often and how well we rushed behind the right side of the O-line in the wildcat, and the fact is right now this is literally the only place to find those numbers.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Feb 12, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Damn

This starting to sound republican/democrat like. You know the ones who CAN make numbers lie?
What makes this a great site is cause it’s ALL here.

BTW, how come PhinPhanatic is showing up on my “Miami” google news and not Phinsider?

Payola?

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."

by Tunaflipper on Feb 12, 2009 6:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Google picks and chooses what it wants to include

Some SBN sites are listed in their “news” section; some aren’t. This site was until we switched over to the new format. Something from the change must have kicked us out.

by Matty I on Feb 12, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

by the way....

60% of the time it works everytime

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Feb 12, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that 110%!

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."

by Tunaflipper on Feb 12, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Based on everyone's comments, I think there's one thing we can all agree on:

Everyone likes different things. And that’s why I think our community does such a great job. I think there’s something here at this site for everyone. And that’s what makes this place what it is – because everyone brings something to the table.

by Matty I on Feb 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Numbers Don't Lie, Nor Do They Tell the Entire Story

 I love the numbers game. The only thing about standard numbers crunching is they usually don’t go far enough. Example: Emmit Smith leading the league in yardage. Does that make him a better back than Barry Sanders. Imagine Barry running behind that Dallas Offensive line for most of his career. Scary numbers is what I am thinking.

Stats are good, but, they need to be tempered with the type of team that player played on and all the circumstances they incurred to get them.

I’d like to see someone put together a system that could add more factors to the stat analysis that would allow a clearer image of those numbers.

I guess I’m saying I want more Numbers. Keep up the effort. Some appreciate it.

by rocktosr on Feb 12, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no, no.... you had some good logic, but i see where you went off track...

right there at the “numbers don’t lie” part. they DO lie…. never trust a number.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 12, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

there are some numbers that are striving towards that goal

Check out Football Outsiders or KC Joyner’s work or even Cold Hard Football Facts. Those sources have been coming out with some intelligent stats that take context and situation into account, which makes for much more reliable stats.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, I understood that perfectly.

Every time I post something, the response is always someone joking with me. It appears that is the only response anyone is capable of giving me.

by rocktosr on Feb 12, 2009 8:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

haha

I feel that way sometimes too.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry. first time i have seen you post something.

i posted my position on this subject in detail above if you care what i really think about it. i see no reason to harp on it further.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 12, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good night Phinsiders

This thing has dragged out and my NyQuil has kicked in

by phatfinfan on Feb 12, 2009 9:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

GO FINS

Great article

by Dolphan on Feb 12, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

First and foremost

In no way shape or form was my intent to discourage stat-like post here at the Phinsider. I made a huge mistake with a post I made regarding this subject. People have bad days, I was having a epic one. I think GatorPhan and PhinfaninMA bring more diversity to the site and they should be acknowledged for their work, and time put in.

  That being said, number overkill isn’t my cup of tea. I like football for the “game” of it, and I like the Phinsider for the “fun” of it. I’d much rather talk about what a great hit that was by the LB as opposed to how many sacks he should compile playing at a certain postion in rainy conditions bases on “stats”. Thats just me. I like football for football sake. I don’t gamble, I don’t fantasy football……..I just love football. The clack of the pads, the smell of the turf, the pure physical nature of one team vs. another with the crowd cheering. The “feel” of the game……….thats my thing.

  I humbly appologize to anyone that I offended by what I’ve said in the last few weeks regarding certain post. But, in all fairness, I like anyone else here have a right to say what they feel without having to open up a briefcase and make my case like lawyer because I simply disagree. If you put up a huge post with lots of numbers and charts and stats…..and I type……“Yaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwnnn”………take it with a grain of salt, get thicker skin, whatever, Its not disrespect, more than likely I just trying to be funny or its just my point of view. You cry for respect, that street goes both ways.

  I’m a team player and have been since I joined here, and I’ll continue to be that way. But, if you bring your laptop to a game……I’m probably going to pour a beer on it…. : )

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Feb 12, 2009 10:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

HUSKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

are you back for good?

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and VERY WELL SAID

that deserved all caps lol

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

glad yer back man

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 13, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

63%

of statistics are meaningless

Frequently wrong, but never in doubt.
Phyrmun

by phyrmun on Feb 12, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

83% of the time

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

WTF is up with Me and RZ being called Pets everyday on this site??

Getting a little ridiculous. It’s always some random person coming outta nowhere to say it, too. If there’s a problem, let me know, don’t just throw the word “pet” around randomly in a post that has nothing to do with me at all.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 12, 2009 10:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

yea, i referred to that in post, idk what thats about either

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe I should just be an asshole and get banned

so I look like a hardcore rebel or something lol

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 12, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NOOOOOOOOO

dont you do that, we need to nick….and my above comment was supposed to read “in MY post”

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

need you nick**

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haven't made it to the post yet lol

has the CKC started yet?

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 12, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

phinsguy

did it too early, we going to do another at the manlaw time

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

-No excuses, No explanations

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm putting it up now

11 is a good start time..

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 12, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You and Rzayo have an innate sense of humor. It comes across in the pieces that you guys write. Husker has it as does LCFF. If someone calls you a pet, it simply comes across as professional jealousy on their part. Keep up the great work and don’t change!

by kdock on Feb 13, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks man. i don't intend to offend anyone unless they are a Ravens fan

but i come here to have fun with other Fin fans, enjoy the good times when we are winning, and commiserate when times aren’t so good (which has been often over the last few years). If I try to keep it light, it’s not because I don’t take my Fins seriously… i do, with a passion that is probably unhealthy sometimes. It’s because if you take the fun out of it, what’s the point… i mean, it’s not like any of us here really have any impact on the direction of the team, so “Why So Serious?”.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 13, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

I’m glad you enjoy my stuff (that’s what she said lol)

And I figured it was jealousy, but I don’t try and put myself above anybody or act like I’m a better fan, I just write and try to give my point of view, whatever that may be.

btw kdock made a CKC appearance, so whoever’s now in charge of ID cards, get on that lol

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Feb 13, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

this is clearly why

Bill James needs to actually watch some games

Bill James pointed out that in baseball, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter (essentially the difference between a good hitter and an average hitter) is virtually undetectable through viewing the games.

won’t discuss this anyfurther here since this is a football site (pm me if you want) but anyone who knows and watches baseball can see the difference between an average hitter and a better one and it doesn’t just include 2 hits a week… it involves hitting pitches to the right side with runners on second, driving the ball with runners on third and working pitchers in clutch situations… and like wise in football stats only go so far…

yeah penne had a great statistic season but to someone like me, he really did hamstring the offense since teams loaded the box knowing he is unable or unwilling to consistantly throw over/beyond the LB’s… so yeah you can put up nice throwing numbers getting 8 yard gains on 3-10 or more but it doesn’t mean you are p manning.

by W NY Fins Fan on Feb 12, 2009 10:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

DVOA and DYAR... (Re-post since the other was waaaay at the top)

while interesting, still don’t tell the whole story.

I buy the Football Prospectus from Football Outsiders every season, I have all of them, and I do enjoy reading them. But they still don’t tell the whole story.

Straight off of the FO website, based on DYAR, I refuse to believe that Roddy White is a better WR then Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, or Hines Ward, or that guys like Derrick Ward, Thomas Jones, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, or Sammy Morris are better RBs Brian Westbrook.

My problem isn’t with the statistics themselves, I will admit that they are at least somewhat interesting. My argument is against the title of the thread that "Numbers Can’t Lie," when, in fact, they can’t really tell the truth, either. I don’t mind statistics as, like you said, a portion of an entire analysis, but they never should be taken as the be-all-end-all analysis, either.

Besides, DYAR and DVOA are still heavily based upon yardage totals, and having more yards =/= better player or team.

Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi

by ratenxs on Feb 12, 2009 10:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’m not claiming that those stats are perfect, but they are a hell of a lot better than conventional ones.

Also, Brian Westbrook was really banged up for a lot of this season and it was obvious how much he was struggling down the stretch. Guys like Ward, Jones, and Slaton absolutely were better than him this season. That doesn’t mean they are better overall. Just look at past season’s numbers – Westbrook is one of the few elite backs there are.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 13, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i disagree with your opinion that they are a hell of a lot better than conventional ones.

at the end of the day, they provide similar evidence, simply on a more granular level.
IMO.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 13, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not really...

They take into account the differing values of field position at what time of the game, at what down and distance. They show that a guy who throws a lot of 9 yard passes on 3 and 10 isn’t very good. They show that a WR who gains a lot of yards in blowouts isn’t very good. Their numbers are far more meaningful if you take the time to get to know them.

Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com

by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 13, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

as i said, i disagree with your opinion.

over the course of a season, and especially over several seasons, the trends using conventional stats are accurate and more than adequate for performance discussions, but i can see how you consider the specific details more valuable in a game to game analysis. My opinion about micro analysis in football is that it is not very useful, since you can’t factor in things like how the player is feeling on a particular play or in a particular game. A guy could have the flu, or be going through a divorce, of had a recent death in the family, or any one of a thousand other things that could effect him from game to game. Trending analysis also must take into account changes to other personnel of the team. Vernon Carey’s performance will vary depending on who is lined up next to him, who the QB is, who the RB is, etc. If a team upgrades their RB, a WR might benefit and play better. And we have all see guys have a great season one year, only to disappear the next. When you look at more general trends over time, these anomalies have less of an impact and the trend becomes more reliable.
Like I said, I disagree with you, but you are entitled to your own opinion. At the end of the day, they are both simply opinions, not facts.
janowhutimeen?

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Feb 13, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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