Looking Back: Was Ronnie the right pick?
by Matty I on Feb 12, 2009 12:15 AM EST
in News
38 comments
Think back to the 2005 offseason. Optimism was as high as we'd seen in Miami following the hiring of Nick Saban as head coach. Having the 2nd overall pick in the NFL Draft also played a part in that optimism. Surely, with a guy like Saban at the helm, the Dolphins would land a star player with that 2nd overall draft pick.
Four years later, we can look back at the 2005 1st round and proclaim that Saban did at least get one thing right. Ronnie Brown was the right pick for the Dolphins at #2 overall. And when you look at all the picks around Ronnie, you see that things really could have taken a turn for the worse had Saban decided to go with somebody else.
Braylon Edwards is really the only other top 10 pick who would have deserved to be selected 2nd overall. And, depending on who you ask, Saban may or may not have lied to Edwards about Miami's intentions to make him the 2nd overall pick of the draft. But even Edwards isn't clearly a better option than Brown turned out to be. Braylon only has scored 3 more touchdowns that Brown. And, in all honesty, Edwards only has had 1 great season - his 2007 season. Outside of that year, Edwards hasn't topped 900 yards receiving or scored more than 6 touchdowns in a season.
The thing we all knew, though, entering the '05 offseason was that the Dolphins were in desperate need of a running back. And with 3 high-caliber backs available in the draft, there was heated debate as to who should have been the top back selected in the draft. Now I'll be honest - Brown was the back I wanted the Dolphins to take, if only because he didn't have the wear and tear on him that both Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams had on them.
As it turns out, Ronnie was indeed the best back of the three available - so good call by Saban once again. Both Benson and Williams have been plauged by a combination of injuries and inconsistency. Here's how the three top 5 backs drafted in '05 stack up against each other:
| Player | G | Att | Yds | TD | YPC | Rec | Yds | TD |
| Brown | 51 | 781 | 3433 | 23 | 4.4 | 137 | 1151 | 2 |
| Williams | 38 | 632 | 2417 | 14 | 3.8 | 60 | 337 | 0 |
| Benson | 47 | 634 | 2340 | 12 | 3.7 | 46 | 365 | 0 |
All those numbers do is just reiterate what we already know - that Ronnie is the best of those 3 backs.
What about other players that were picked in the top 10? Would any of them have been a better pick than Brown? Alex Smith went first overall - and he's been a total bust. Pacman Jones was the 6th pick - and he's now looking for work (and trying to stay out of jail). Troy Williamson was the 7th pick - and he stinks, totaling 84 career catches over 4 seasons. Antrel Rolle and Carlos Rodgers are both solid players. Rolle, particularly, has played well since finding a new home as a safety rather than a corner. And the 10th overall pick was Mike Williams, who owns 44 career receptions and was out of football in 2008.
However, there is one player who was drafted in round 1 who fell out of the top 10 - actually, out of the top 20 - but might have been a better pick than Brown. That player is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers fell all the way to pick 24 before being scooped up by the Packers. And all Rodgers has done is sit behind Brett Favre for 3 seasons before throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.
And that makes you wonder.
Would it have been smarter to draft Aaron Rodgers with that #2 overall pick? Think about it for a second. Selecting Rodgers would have prevented the Dolphins from making such dumb moves as trading a 2nd round pick for Daunte Culpepper. And it would have saved 2 more 2nd round picks as well, with Miami not having to spend picks on John Beck and Chad Henne. That's 3 extra 2nd rounders for the Dolphins if they had selected Rodgers 2nd overall in 2005.
That's why I'll pose this question to all of you. Do you think the Dolphins - in the long run - would have been better off selecting Aaron Rodgers 2nd overall rather than Ronnie Brown?
0 recs |
38 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Yes
Starting running backs are a dime-a-dozen, and are almost never worth the money that comes with being the second overall pick in the draft.
Franchise QBs, on the other hand, are the rarest of players. Rodgers looks to be one so far. Had we taken him, the rebuilding process would have probably been completed by now since we would have avoided the past four years of the QB carousel, and, as you mentioned, wasting valuable draft picks on nothing.
In perfect hindsight, this one’s easy to call. But given what everyone knew then, I’d still say Saban made a good call.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Feb 12, 2009 12:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely....
Look at how many late round and undrafted running backs succeed when there is a good o-line in place and players around him. If there’s no one to block it doesn’t matter who is your RB. Look at Edge going from like 4.5 yds/car in IND then 3.2 in ARZ.
With that said, we kind of got hosed on when we’ve had the top 1-2 picks. They have been pretty weak draft classes that lack the stud power of Larry Fitzgerald/Andre Johnson/Julius Peppers. I will say that I am psyched about Jake Long, and that Ronnie was the right pick, based on what we had to choose from. As a Pitt alum I will always wonder what it would have been like to have Fitz….
by nriehl on Feb 12, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You never know
Rodgers had time to develop. We could have stunted his growth by throwing him to the wolves instead of learning behind Favre.
by gophish on Feb 12, 2009 12:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Correct
He could have ended up like Leaf, Couch, Harrington, Akili Smith, Alex Smith and others. It is rare to see QB’s like Peyton and Ryan or Flacco come in and do well starting right off the bat. In my opinion the Falcons were an ok team with Vick 2 years ago, and their drop off last season was from many things, but putting in a QB that can make plays with a good supporting team can win like Ryan. Flacco is the same thing the Ravens were in the playoffs 2 years ago. Peyton is really a odd duck, taking the not so great Colts to greatness in his second year.
Protypical Running backs on the other can make an easier transition to the pros, easiest of any position. (Not backs like Reggie Bush, who out run the defense) Thats not to say Williams and Benson did have the chances, but historically the difference from Collge to NFL for a RB is not much different in terms of hitting the holes.
The Patriots Suck
by k2oconnor on Feb 12, 2009 8:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly.
Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi
by ratenxs on Feb 12, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They should've drafted Ronnie (like they did)
and signed Drew Brees.
"I have nothing to declare except my genuis."
-Oscar Wilde
by Neo on Feb 12, 2009 1:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Funny Thing Is, I'm a Huge Drew Brees Fan...
…but I would have picked Culpepper over Brees. Its just conventionall wisdom that if you have a two QB’s, one coming off a knee surgery and one coming off a shoulder surgery to their throwing shoulder, you go with the one coming off of knee surgery, of course, that is not having been privy to medical charts. It was a huge mistake, one I don’t blame the Dolphins for. And I have always been a huge Brees fan, even back as far as when he was coming out of college. Unfortunately, these kinds of decisions decide the fate of teams. If Brees comes to the Dolphins is Saban still onboard and does the new regime never come here?
by dab415217 on Feb 12, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
only issue
with Brees was his unwillingness to come off the 10 mil per year… which IIRC would have forced them to make some significant cuts…
that said I never did like trading a 2nd for pep… thought they would have done better drafting a QB with the 2nd rounder… but I work with a BIG Vike fan who was telling me all the time PEP was made by his receivers… and the fumble a game drove him nuts too…
by W NY Fins Fan on Feb 12, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looking Back, My Pick at the Time Was Braylon Edwards.
However, Edwards has not panned out like I thought. Nice WR, but not yet a great one.
The obvious choice looking looking back would be Shawne Merriman, as he has had the biggest impact of anyone.
Aaron Rodgers over Ronnie Brown? After one year starting that is hard to say, but in terms of eventual longevity in the league, Rodgers should win that. Its a toss-up at this point, but I dare say that when their careers are done Rodgers will have been the better choice.
by dab415217 on Feb 12, 2009 8:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think Brown
was the right decision. If you would have went after a QB in the draft, like Rodgers, we had no running back. We had Sammy Morris the year before, and Ricky was going to be coming off a 4 game suspension, so we would have been stuck there. Granted, we could have drafted a running back later in the rounds, ala Barber or Grant, but that’s always a gamble. At the time, the trade for Culpepper was the right move, because he did present a seasoned QB with proven success. No one knew he was going to be a bust. Every coach always says you have to establish the run in order for your offense to be successful. If we had no running back, how would we have done that. Also, with the type of team we had that year, who’s to say Rodgers would have survived the year at QB if he played…
by Cokes_03 on Feb 12, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wait........
Rmeber Sammy Morris was sitting on the bench all fat dumb and happy in New England, than all of the sudden the starter gets hurt. what happens next. Sammy Morris becomes a beast. He starts scoring TDs like its nobodys buisness. Who’s to say that he would have not done the same for us. At the same time I know New Englands line is way better, but I really dont remeber. I think we made a good choice about Ronnie, he started out like a stud. His i njuries have hindered him from becoming more. I really think the Duante Culpepper, Drew brees thing was a bad move. I knew Drew brees was going to have a good year. But I also understand that he had a shoulder injury and wanted more money than Duante. I thought Duante became a bum in minnesota after Randy Moss left. Wish we would have not given up all those draft picks. But at least we dont have to worry about that now.
by esco6781 on Feb 12, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ronnie was the right choice
for a lot of the reasons stated here…
the biggest one being I don’t think Rodgers would have been gang-busters right out of college. I think the success he had last year was a product of sitting on his butt for a few years and studying. Which is why I would love another healthy year of CP10 this year, thereby giving Henne more time to sit and learn.
In addition, I would agree with dab415217 on the Culpepper-Brees debate. I thought it made more sense at the time to go after the QB with the bum knee over the the QB with the bum shoulder… Looking back we’d all prefer they had gone after Brees, but who the knows what would have happened. It’s not like he’d have had anybody to throw it to!!
by NumberSeven on Feb 12, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If that was the case,
we just lost ourselves a 10year franchise QB in Matt Ryan, we didnt pick him because he was not a clear number 1 pick like years before (Carson Palmer, Eli Manning) , and even though Jake Long was a great pick, 99 out of a 100 GM´s will take a 10-15 year Franchise Qb (Peyton Manning) over anything in the world.
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 12, 2009 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
~raises hand~
I was one of the 2 or 3 people on this site who were stumping for Ryan. I’m happy with Long, but would have been happier with Ryan.
by dab415217 on Feb 12, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Ryan?
he got put in a great spot. Decent o-line and a running back that was hungry to prove himself. Not to mention they have some receivers to throw to. So really, would he have done as good a job in dade county as he did in the ATL? I don’t think so. He would have helped us get maybe 5-8 wins. An improvement over last year. Matt Ryan got drafted by a team that only had one missing piece. And before we draft another QB we have to build the line so we don’t David Carr his ass.
by esco6781 on Feb 12, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1st of all nobody is talking about throwing Matt Ryan in there his rookie year (Aaron Rodgers project)
second, how can you not value the kind of player he is? he might not be the real deal but he already proved he´s got what it takes to be a franchise Qb, third, if Dan Marino compared his rookie year to Ryan’s year I guess the guy knows a thing or two about the thing.
But then how dare you say Atlanta is a team that had only one missing piece? That statement alone messes up your credibility big time.
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 12, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't really say-
it isn’t possible to tell WHY Rodgers was so successful. If he was a day 1 starter out of college would he still look as good as he did last year? Could our coaches have developed him to the same extent he was in Green Bay? He has also had some significant injuries in his career- even when not seeing significant playing time.
I agree that there are some good to excellent RBs out there who were taken in the 2nd, 3rd, or even later rounds. But nobody is questioning the Vikes going with Adrian Petersen- and now he even seems like a value pick to some based on where he was taken. Though injuries are part of the game, if Brown hadn’t torn his ACL we wouldn’t even have to ask this question as I feel he is on the level of AP. He runs/ran almost as well (it remains to be seen if he can fully recover and stay healthy, though he did look good), plus he catches the bell better, and is a better blocker.
"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer
by GatorPhan on Feb 12, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but for such a high pick
I dont think he has had the kind of production other top5 RB´s have had. He is a great commodity but if it hadnt been for the wildacat against the Pats, we are talking about a 2 overall pick who without a Pro Bowl selection. I love him dont get me wrong but I dont think he is the kind of player that can make things happen like Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson or even Reggie Bush. I think he is a very good player but I dont think he is a playmaker like these guys are. (2 punts returned for TD´s for reggie, a almost 300 rushing yard game for AP, and Calvin, he is just the real deal)
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 12, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ronnie is doing better than Reggie in the NFL
He was the feature back when he entered the league, something Reggie hasnt been yet in his career…ronnie has had better numbers, and reggie has suffered an injury every year of his career (if i am not mistaken) and ronnie has only had 1, albeit a major injury…knowing what we know today and seeing how their NFL careers have panned out so far, i would rather have ronnie than reggie…
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too
I didnt mention that but obviously over all Ronnie is better because he is a complete Running back that of course can run and catch a little bit, but the times Reggie has been healthy, eventhough he is not an every down back (the tendency in the league is the 1-2 punch) he is a super star he is a game changer, like the time he returned 2 punts for TD against Minn on MNF or he´ll take a screen pass to the house or just whatever. And my point is that nowadays, you can get yourself an awesome workhorse like Ronnie but late in the 1st or the 2nd round or even 3rd (steve slaton, matt forte, jonathan stewart, chris johnson), but if you asked me, a top 5 (not to say top 2) Running Back should have a stelar impact on the league
For example-
Jamal Lewis- 5 overall- Ran for 2,066 yards in 2003
LaDainian Tomlinson- 5 overall- All time record Single Season TD´s (31), Single Rushing TD´s (28) , Second place All Time rushing touchdowns, 8 consecutive 1,000+ seasons.
Adrian Peterson- 7 overall- 3,101 rushing yards in 2 seasons, 5.2avg, 2 time Pro Bowl selection, 22TD.
So what Im trying to tell you is that Ronnie is a very good Running Back, he is just not a great one.
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 12, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
and you point out some great examples…Reggie tries to outrun people and that doesnt cut it in the NFL, but he does have the capability of making the huge plays and having huge games, like that 2 PR TDs against Minny, and i thats why he gets more pub b/c of those spectacular plays, but u never know when those are going to happen…he can go weeks without having one of those plays or games…with ronnie you pretty much know what you going to get each week, although it may not look as pretty…and reggie has not had a stellar impact on the league as the #2 pick like the examples you showed, and those guys are one of a kind talent…btw Lewis had that one great year and like 2 others he is not a great running back, but LT and AP are extraordinary players and will go down in history as 2 of the best to ever play the position, so i will not be upset if ronnie doesnt play up to them, he will be great for us and lead us to multiple division titles…i am very happy with our selection of Ronnie Brown
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I agree, also lol the Jamal Lewis example was a weak one but
the guy did run for 2,000 yds so I thought I´d give it a try lol. But yeah i agree, “you know what you are going to get every week”, meaning Ronnie is a really good RB a consistent one and indeed was a good pick. What I am emphasizing here is that we would be kidding ourselves if we say that Ronnie brown is as good and stelar a running back as Ladanian Tomlinson in his prime or Adrian Peterson, thats just not true its just not. And even though we are a Dolphin site we have to be objective and dont loose credibility throwing around things like "
if brown hadn´t torn his ACL, we wouldn´t even have to ask this question as I feel he is on the level of AP
who are we kidding man, and I say this because if we are going to go all “CP10 is a good QB but not a great one” then lets be objective and admit Ronnie Brown is also a very very good RB but not a great one. And I admire how Matty threw around the “Aaron Rodgers vs. Ronnie Brown” – Pick question, and Matty knows what he is talking about, what I am going to ask you know is; do you think that the guys over at Minnesota are asking the same kind of questions about AP?? there you go
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 12, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there's no chance Minny asking that
they thinkin AP the best of all time and the best pick ever. they would never give that up fro anything lol IMO…but yea, i agree with you, we do have to be objective and not let our love for this team and our bias cloud the truth…
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of Course
Ronnie was the right pick it was the fact that his rookie year he split time,and Saban hardley gave the kid the ball over 20 times a game Cam came in not a great coach but a hell of an OC anf he knew how to use Ronnie and look at what he did up until the injury.Now I like the new staff but again a split between him and Ricky not that I mind the 2 splitting time but 18 carries between the two one game come on they need to get over the fact that he is comming off a big injury blah blah and give him the full time gig not only because he looked good in the pro-bowl but this will be a contract year for him give him the ball damn it…….booooooooooyaaaaaaaa
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Feb 12, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You are leaving out Shawne Merriman, DaMarcus Ware, and Jammal Brown (11-13) as potential other picks we could have had. I love Ronnie and he was clearly the best pick in the top 10 but a case could be made for the above 3 players too.
by orodag on Feb 12, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I left them out because, at the time, those players were not considered top 5 picks.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was rumored to be battling Alex Smith for that “top QB in the draft” tag. And Rodgers was very much involved in the “top 5” talk – unlike Merriman, Ware, and Brown.
by Matty I on Feb 12, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ronnie was the right guy.
Always ready to sing OL praises, the rushing attack is where it’s at. Heck, we had Marino (the great) and still didn’t get the SB. Bradshaw (the mediocre+) lived there! Probably woulda spent too much $$$ on Rodgers anyway and I bet Ryan doesn’t repeat (yes, a shameless, “I’m a J Long fan plug”).
"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."
by Tunaflipper on Feb 12, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not To Mention
Alex Smith was number one on our board Saban was really high on him so just think if San Fran picked Rodgers first we would have got Smith instead thank the lord that didnt happen.But Ronnie was the better back of the three he was the better blocker,has the better hands etc. hopefully he comes back to his old style and just hits the holes and runs over guys instead of trying to juke (I think he stutter steped alot to avoid contact this season) even Edwards who’s only real big year was in 07 would not have been the right pick at the time not to mention he had the most drops this season of any wide out.Ricky left out of the blue we got a young stund with the second pick to fill in the void good pick.
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Feb 12, 2009 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Now How About
A do you think Ted Ginn Jr was the right pick thread lol this one could get ugly.
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Feb 12, 2009 5:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
When Henne's arm starts getting used,
Ginn’ll be the man!
"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."
by Tunaflipper on Feb 12, 2009 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
True
Ginn is a burner and Chad dont have the arm to get him deep but Ginn will be fine he just needs to put on a bit more size and polish his routes.
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Feb 12, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its not Chad´s arm, its just that Ginn is an AWFUL rout runner and gets stuffed at the line like a turkey
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 13, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
thats what I mean Ginn is just a burner and cant create any seperation off the line if he polished his routes him and Penny would work well he can can get alot extra yards off of slant routes by his speed alone
Ahhhh Ta Ta Ta Ta Bye Bye Foy518
by Foy on Feb 13, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
completely, actually he had a couple of those against Buffalo
and he was very successful. But its still beyond me how that front office passed on Patrick Willis , imaging having one of the best LB´s in the game right now, or if they were really into drafting a WR then go for Dwayne Bowe or Anthony Gonzales who are absolutely much better WR´s than Ginn, specially Bowe, that guy is a stud.
by MauMontaV5 on Feb 13, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course 23 was the right pick
"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"
-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic
by Patssuck456 on Feb 12, 2009 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
mhm...23 is always a good pick
in basketball and the nfl lol
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Feb 12, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is a pretty big
assumption with this…
A rodgers being a good QB – packer fans i know were under whelmed… most of his yardage was against a couple of teams and in blow out spots… and that he pretty much stunk in the clutch…
by W NY Fins Fan on Feb 14, 2009 12:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
