A Look At Samson Satele: Does He Deserve The Criticism?

Well, the rumor mill is swirling that Sparano, Ireland, and Parcells are looking to bench 2nd year starter Samson Satele next year.  Despite starting all 16 games at center his rookie season (a Dolphins record), he looked unimpressive last year, and it is being reported that the Trifecta have made it a "priority" to upgrade to a more physical center- either via free agency or the draft.  But is this really fair?  I decided to do a comprehensive breakdown of Satele's performance last season. . . unfortunately, this one seems to pass the eyeball test. . .

Lets start with the easy one - sacks allowed.  In 2008 Satele allowed 4.5 sacks on the season.  How does that compare?  He is tied with 3rd worst in the league with Dan Koppen of the Pats (who was tasked with protecting Matt Cassell and his molasses like slow rookie release), and just ahead of Casey Rabach of the Redskins (who had 5.5), and Justin Hartwig of the Steelers (who allwoed 6.5). 

OK- I know what you're saying now- Hartwig was the worst with sacks allowed in the NFL, and they won the Superbowl!  A couple of points:

1.) The Steelers had what may go down in history as the worst O-line to win a SB.

2.) Big Ben holds onto the ball so long its easier measured in minutes than seconds.

3.) Ben also has never heard of the concept of "throwing the ball away".

Satele was guarding a wily veteran QB who gets rid of the ball quickly, knows when to toss it away, and knows when to tuck it in and scramble- so I would say he has far fewer excuses.

Alright then- we don't really want to be a spread and shred team anyways.  We love to POUND THE ROCK (TM- The Phinsider 2008)!  How did he do in the running game???

Glad you asked-

Some notes about the categories:  There is the basic attempts, yards, yards per carry.  After that is the now ubiquitous Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards and ALY per carry explained here.  Then there is touchdowns scored, and 1st downs achieved. 

The number after that, % 1st down, is the average percentage of the yards needed for first down gained.  That means that if it was 1st and 10, and we rushed for 5- the % 1st Down would be 50%.  But if it was 1st and 20 and we rushed for 5, it would only be 25%.  It is not that interesting overall, but when broken up by down later it becomes more interesting.   Think about it like this, if you rush for 50% of a first down on 1st and 10, you did pretty well.  If you rush for 50% of a 1st down on 4th and 2, it was a complete failure.

If you find any of the stats too confusing, feel free to ignore them as even the basic numbers are pretty cut and dry in this case.

First, we will look at the overall numbers- these do NOT include any Wildcat rushing statistics:

It doesn't take much to see that these numbers are fairly unimpressive.  Not even 3.5 yards per carry. And according to the FO method, Satele was only responsible for 2 of those yards.  But what if these numbers are deceiving?  What if we only really rushed behind center on 3rd and 4th and short, and 3.28 YPC is actually a good average?  Well, the % of first down would tell you that is not the case, as we didn't even achieve half the yards we needed to gain a first down on average.  But if you doubt my methods- here are the stats broken up by down:

OK- these numbers aren't horrible.  We at least gained above 3.5 yards a carry. You don't really expect to make a ton of 1st downs by rushing on 1st down anyways.

Second down gets much much spottier. Not even 3 yards a carry, or half the yards necessary to get to a first down.

Here is the critical down- and it is fairly disappointing.  A little bit better yards per carry, but on 3rd down you MUST get 1st downs.  That means you would expect the % 1st Downs to be around 100% or greater to be a true success- but our production suggests that on average, we did not achieve a 1st down when rushing behind center on 3rd down.  If you look at 1st down vs attempts, you will see that bear out with only 6 first downs on 16 attempts, or just under a 38% success rate in achieving getting the 1st down.  Just as a note, you know who made those conversions?  Lousaka Polite converted each and every one.  Without him, we would not have converted a single 3rd down behind center.

4th down seems to be the only bright spot- but don't read too much into it.  4 attempts is a pretty small sample size.  Also consider that every single attempt was 1 yard or less so take it for what you will.

The final item I wanted to look at was how he did versus 3-4 fronts.  Most of us have the conception that he struggled against the big, physical NTs.  Did he really?

Lets take a look at how he did against 4-3 fronts first:

Not too bad- he actually did better that against his overall average- though he still couldn't hit that magical 4 yards per carry mark.  But if he did better than average here, you probably know whats coming next:

That is absolutely TERRIBLE production. Not even 3 yards per carry?  We might has well have not even run behind center against 3-4 teams.  Unfortunately, tosses and sweeps off tackle isn't exactly a staple of the power running game.  Doubly unfortunately, 2 of the other 3 teams in our division run a 3-4 defense- and both of them have big, nasty nose tackles.

Really, if Satele is replaced next season, those last numbers there are the reason why.  While his production against 4-3 fronts wasn't stellar- it was livable.  But his production against the 3-4 fronts he faced is completely unacceptable, especially considering 4 out of 6 division games are guaranteed to be against the 3-4 defense next year.

Personally, I am hoping the rumors are false.  Satele looked like one of the most promising young O-lineman in the league his rookie year.   The homer in me has to hope he can heal up, bulk up, and improve his ability to push at the point of attack.  Instead, he may go down as just another in a long line of Dolphins draft busts.

What do you guys think?  Will the Trifecta factor in his torn labrum, and his efforts to bulk up in the off season?  Will he compete for a spot at guard maybe?  Will his sub par production banish him to the bench?  Or maybe something totally unexpected- like a trade to a team with a zone blocking scheme that could take advantage of his athleticism and where his smaller size wouldn't be such a draw back?

Love to hear your thoughts. 

P.S.- if there are any other rushing behind Satele situational stats you want to see- let me know as I probably already have them.