Playoff Scenario Catch-All Thread: Week 16
by Matty I on Dec 21, 2009 1:28 AM EST
Email
PrintI've already had to delete like five separate fanposts about different playoff scenarios because they were incorrect.
So - from this point on - all playoff scenario talk will be posted in here. If you make a fanpost about it from this point on, I'll have to delete it. We can't have a million fanposts all about the same topic.
Also - as we figure out ACTUAL legit ways that the Dolphins can get in, I'll update the body of this post to highlight them.
**Note: Please "rec" this so it moves to the top for the entire week.**
SCENARIO #1
--Dolphins win last two games.
--Patriots lose last two games (vJac, @Hou).
SCENARIO #2
--Dolphins win last two games.
--Jaguars lose one of last two games (@NE, @Cle).
--Broncos lose to Chiefs in week 17.
--If Denver's only loss these next two weeks is in week 16 to Philly, the tie-breaker would go to "strength of victory" - which currently favors the Broncos (.5179 to .4388).
SCENARIO #3
--Dolphins win last two games.
--Jaguars lose one of last two games (@NE, @Cle).
--Ravens lose in week 16 to Steelers (Note - if Ravens beat Steelers but lose in week 17, Ravens win tie-breaker with Miami thanks to a 3-2 record in "common opponent" games; Dolphins only 2-3 in those games).
--Dolphins hold their lead in "strength of victory" over Ravens (currently .4388 to .375).
SCENARIO #4
--Dolphins win last two games.
--Jaguars lose one of last two games (@NE, @Cle).
--Ravens lose both of their remaining games (@Pit, @Oak).
--Titans lose one of last two games (vSD, @Sea) - otherwise Dolphins would lose out on tie-breaker to Titans due to Sunday's loss to Tennessee.
SCENARIO #5
--Dolphins win last two games.
--Jaguars lose one of last two games (@NE, @Cle).
--Bengals lose both of their remaining two games (vKC, @NYJ).
--Ravens win both of their remaining games (@Pit, @Oak).
This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.
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So if
The Jags lose to the Pats and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs (if not to the Eagles as well), and we beat Houston and Pittsburgh, we make the Wildcard regardless of what Baltimore does?
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
We can do this.
David A. Fuller, CPA, MST
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Dec 21, 2009 2:29 AM EST up reply actions
im with you there
i have a feeling that we get in
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
its easy
go to yahoo, go to the nfl page and look up the tab playoffs on the upper right hand side pic ur winners and losers for the next two weeks and it will tell u everything
either way we HAVE TOO win the next two games GO PHINZZZZZZ
Scenario #3
Scenario #3 is the best chance we have.
i like scenario 2-3 i think one of them happen
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
Scenario # 3 is very possible..
I expect Pittsburgh fans to be very loud next week. I think we could win the next 2. I think we blow out Houston and play a hard fought game against pittsburgh! But I’m actually nervous about Jacksonville pulling a win out next week versus NE. It’s highly possible.
well thats the thing.. I thinkJax plays them hard maybe squeaks out a win
But new england will beat houston. Who knows…this isnt the patriots of years past..
Houston may be hungry to play spoiler,
so I wouldn’t count them out. They are a pretty good team.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
And do not forget, if it gets to that Phins will have just beaten Houston
Just think how stupid the average Jest fan is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! ( a parody of a George Carlin line)
Attorney General of the Matty I Fan Club
Driver of the draft Brandon Spikes bandwagon
I agree, they have the Passing Attack that is strong enough to take advantage of the Patriots' weakness
in the secondary. Their passing attack is better than the Fins (Andre Johnson!)
The key is to keep Matt Schaub ON the field and Rex Grossman OFF of it.
Like we need to get Wake ON the field and get Gibril Wilson OFF of it.
Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.
by DolphDallas on Dec 21, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Seems like number 3 is the one to pray for
Although with all the bad teams playing really hard Scenario #2 could happen. KC could come back and beat the Broncos, hell the Raiders did it. Either way like Matty said, first lets win next week then maybe we can worry about this stuff.
gonna be interesting but i like our prospects for next year.. we should be an exciting team.
We know our weaknesses now,
HUGE GAME THIS WEEK!!!!
Next week will be great indicator of the playoffs .. we should all get pumped up for a big HOME game against Houston. I still feel that a lot of things are working in the Dolphins favor for another chance at the playoffs .. GO PHINS !!!
Too many scenarios but 2 teams we 100% must root for
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins!
We will see how the rest of the games play out but we definetly want those two to win
that’s the best start for playoff hopes
any chance we select two inside linebackers with our 1st 2 picks ala CB's in 2009?
We by far have got to have the worst set of ILB’s in the league or close too..
it's a shame to say since Channing was a huge part of our success last year...
but come on man wake up…He’s god awful out there
I disagree...
Channing Crowder is very solid out there (his name was actually called for good coverage at one point in the game, but that’s not why he’s solid), the problem is Ayodele. We need an elite MLB to play next to him. If Crowder had some real help, he’d probably look a whole lot better.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
agreed
get a playmaker alongside him and suddenly our ILB’s are great.
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
channing had his best yr under to help of a healthy zack thomas
if we get a real good true mlb than i think he’ll be even better
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
Crowder and Ayodele have been playing great lately,
they both were making plays yesterday as well, I doubt they’re going anywhere.
by uncle finster on Dec 21, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
we should go with an ilb and olb
get a playmaker opposite crowder and someone to replace porter and taylor.
btw i still dont get that whole roth thing
start clemons over gibril
sign ronnie to a long term deal
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
by ronnie brown for president on Dec 21, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see Dansby signed
and a guy like Jerry Hughes or Sergio Kindle drafted (although I’d rather get Spiller in round 1).
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Im not on that bandwagon.. Crowder, while making some costly mistakes has also made some good plays.
No single ILB will ever make EVERY play EVERY time. Sure he needs to improove a bit and needs to be more consistant but he is a solid ILB. Could we get a better one? Sure.. but to think we can draft one and have him better by the start of next season is a long shot. I say we need to get a SOLID TRUE 100% #1 receiver b4 ANY OTHER position followed by a NT or saftey to replace Wilson. ILB is far below those needs IMO
Henne is now our leader. Lets see what the guy can do !
As usual the R&R Xpres is non stop to its next destination !
Driver of the Camarillo, Hartline & Bess fan club bus.. hop on and enjoy the ride!
We need this pass D to STEP THE F UP and do what they get paid to do!
by MainePhinFan on Dec 21, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
i am
actually pretty optimisitic about our chances. i like scenario 2 and 3.
denver has a history of losing it at the end of the season (i.e. last year) so that is very logical
i think pit has a good shot at beating baltimore. it will be at home and heinz field is a difficult place to play.
that said. WE NEED TO WIN OUT!!!
I'm with you on this one
I’m still very optimistic despite our loss today .. the BAL game IMO is in our favor. Although for us to make the playoffs this way we also need JAC to lose to the Pats .. wait this game is also in our favor lol
knowing our luck
pats will lose, and has chargers clinched the 3rd seed? if so i hope they dont bench their starters agains the titans next week
Scenario #3
Wouldn’t it still require Titans to lose 1?
It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
Scenario #4 is just a more accurate Scenario #3.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
no
In Scenario 3, there’s a tie between the Titans, Dolphins, and Ravens. But the Titans are eliminated first due to their 7 conference losses. So it wouldn’t matter.
But in Scenario 4, if the Titans don’t lose one but Baltimore loses both, it would be a tie between the Dolphins and Titans – and Tennessee obviously has tie-breaker.
Tennessee’s win over Miami doesn’t help them in a tie-breaker with Miami if it’s a 3 way tie (or more). They’d lose out on conference record.
Ah thanks for clarification, Matty!
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
I'm still confused...
The Titans have 7 conference losses and we have 5, when we were tied with the Jags in the wildcard they took the wildcard spot because their conference record was better despite the fact that we had beat them, why is it different this time? And would it be different if there was another team tied with them? Say for example the Jets (It won’t happen but just for fun)
in a 3 way tie, it doesn't matter if we beat one of the teams
but in a two-way tie, head-to-head is the first tie-breaker.
Tennessee would be in a 3 way tie with Miami and Balt in Scenario 3
But they’d be eliminated first because of their 7 conference losses.
Comeon scenario 3
Current Phinsider Feud Points: 23
T.Lex doesn't want to be fed, he wants to hunt. Can't just suppress sixty five million years of gut instinct.
Scenario #3
In Scenario #3, Tennesseee would be eliminated first, since their conference record would not be as good as Baltimore and Miami (even if they won their final two).
Scenario #3
Scenario #3 is not that far fetched. Jags have to go to New England and it’s an important game for the Patriots. Same with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Hopefully the Steelers hold their home field and take revenge for the closs loss a few weeks ago. Those are the main two we need. Then we must just win our games.
Not to mention....
That we shouldn’t be so down on our team. We played two very tough road games against .500% teams and won one and lost in OT to another. The loss was to a team that has won 7 of 8. Our final two are at home and we just need to win them, and we can.
and houston has looked pathetic the last game
well not andre johnson but the team as a whole seem beatable
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
Pats lose both...we win both
book it, buy your playoff tickets now.
serious.
Phinsider Hall of Fame Class of 09' / 2-Time 09' Matty Award Winner
There is no way the Pats lose both....
I’ll be cheering for them next week to get Jacksonville out of the way for us.
by DanMarinoIsGod on Dec 21, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Very Possible but not likely
the only game they have the upper hand in is the JAC game because its in NE and there offense isn’t meant to win by throwing the ball … on the other hand Houston can shread up the pats defense and it is an away game for NE and there record has been terrible on the road. If NE loses to Jac I like our chances … assuming we beat HOU that is
Did I STA STA STA STUTTER?!?!?!
BOOK IT.
Pats are floating by beating bad teams barely….EXPOSURE these next two weeks….they are all banged up….and they get one of the most physical teams in the league thats more motivated than them.
Houston whoops that ass in Houston…..they might drop 40.
Pats finish 9-7……
I said Book it damnit
Phinsider Hall of Fame Class of 09' / 2-Time 09' Matty Award Winner
LMAO
man im with u lets bet on it dude
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
im pretty sure vegas has some good odds aainst that happening
so probably u could make some good $
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
If Jax beats NE
I am highly confident Houston can at Reliant. NE has yet to win a game on the road, and Houston plays good football at home
But we still need to go back to back jack
"It is obvious the Patriots souls are on lease - any day now Satan will rise up to New England - kick Tom Brady, Kevin Garnett, and David Ortiz in their luck filled testicles - and turn that area into his personal vacation home here on earth.-Rzayo 24, week one.
"Everybody in that room should be embarrassed. If they’re not embarrassed, they got the wrong job or they’re stealing money from baseball."-Ozzie Guillen 8/28/09
The scary thing is as much as I want scenario #1
We have to rely on Cleveland beating Jax and denying them the playoffs in week 17 in case Houston doesn’t win =/
wow I didnt think the chances were still that good
hey heres to a crazy finish in the afc!
I like scenario #1 the best: AFC East Repeat Champs (how sweet would that be?)
But scenario #2 and scenario #3 are VERY likely.
How funny to be relying on Matt Cassel’s arm to get the Fins into the playoffs! The Chiefs need to tighten up their special teams play and they will be okay.
It would help if Kyle Orton went down in a loss to a blitzing Philadelphia (Chris Simms is terrible).
REGARDLESS: I am so proud of the Fins for how hard they have fought and and far they have come.
Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.
by the way, Great Post Matty
Very clear, accurate, and concise.
I expect to see this post all over the internet quoted by Fins fans everywhere
Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.
by DolphDallas on Dec 21, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
matt cassle AND chris chambers AND mike vrebal go figure
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
Regarding Scenario #3...
When you say "Dolphins hold their lead in “strength of victory” over Ravens (currently .4388 to .375)", are you saying this is true and will not change? Or are you saying it could change? Can we do anything to make it true? How is that figured out?
Thanks. GO DOLPHINS!
i've heard rumors...
.. that they might add more playoff spots to the league next year [or maybe 2 years] due to the ever-growing number of teams in the nfl…. can anyone substantiate this talk? or discredit it, either one….and ty Matty, for clearing up the playoff confusion, not to mention all of the other stuff you do to keep this place the best dolphins site on the net : )
"Come to the edge." "We can't. We're afraid." "Come to the edge." "We can't. We will fall!" "Come to the edge." And they came. And he pushed them. And they flew. ~Guillaume Apollinaire~
they also might add more teams (LA, London, vegas?) and might add a week 17 and 18 instead of the last 2 weeks of preseason
start clemons over gibril
sign ronnie to a long term deal
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
by ronnie brown for president on Dec 21, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure if they're gonna add any more teams.
the divisions are set up nicely, and adding 1 or 2 teams would unbalance the whole schedule setup. I think the likely scenario is a team like Jacksonville or Buffalo moving (JAX to LA, Buffalo to Toronto, although I don’t agree with that one). JAX is in real trouble of being relocated because they just can’t sell tickets there, despite being in the playoff race.
I have heard that Goodell wants to shorten the preseason by two games, and add 2 more regular season games, but I’m not sure how much support he has, and the money issue would need to be worked out (the players, last I heard, want 2 more games of pay, while the owners really don’t want to pay it). I don’t particularly like the idea, because I think there are enough injuries and wear-n-tear on these guys through 16 games. An 18 game season would shorten careers and I believe would lead to more significant injuries. A lot players struggle to make it through the 16 games..
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
In that situation
expect an expanded roster which would appease the players union abit IF they really want to expand the regular season the P.U. will be appeased
3 new 2010 starting LBers via 2010 draft
Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure
I haven't heard that
12 playoff teams for a 32 team league is fine. Once you get to 16, you end up like the NBA, where there are teams below .500 in the playoffs and the pool is diluted by sub-par teams. I don’t think the NFL needs to change anything about the playoff system, it works.
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I agree.
12 is the perfect number for 32, and 32 is the perfect number for even divisions. They’d have to add 8 teams to keep the balance, and there’s no way they add that many.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
enough is enough
leave it be, thank you
by uncle finster on Dec 21, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Let's both hope for Scenario 1
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
Well,
wierder things have happened
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
so if the pats lose both,
and we win out, does that mean we win out the division, and the Dolphins would win whatever tie-breaker it comes down to?
http://playoffboundsports.com
http://problogstores.com/ppr/shop?c=80008
Driver of the Draft C.J. Spiller in 1st round if Dez is gone Bandwagon! ;)
Everyone saying number 3..
I think number 2 is the realistic one. All we have to hope for is one upset, KC over Denver. Denver honestly sucks, and KC can put up points. Anyone with me?
i agree, we gotta win most importantly
start clemons over gibril
sign ronnie to a long term deal
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
by ronnie brown for president on Dec 21, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
No,
because Denver does not suck.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
Since the Bye
Denver is 2-6, has gotten blown out by Baltimore, Pitt, San Diego, Lost to the Colts, REDSKINS, And RAIDERS! and beat the Giants and the Chiefs. Not saying they are the Rams, but they arent world beaters either. I can definitely see a possibility where they lose to the Chiefs. Not saying it is likely, but it can defintely happen.
by captain flitzy on Dec 21, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
You make good points,
but I still think Denver is a solid team and KC just lost to CLEVELAND.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
The Good News Is...
As long as we beat Houston – we are in contention through the final week of the season due to the Pats – Jags game being a positive to us no matter who wins, correct?
Add to that..
the New Orleans/Indy game.
by captain flitzy on Dec 21, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
i have a feeling...
that we will get in, i dont see marsha brady and his bunch loosing out he unfortunately wont let that happen, but i can see either/both ravens loosing to pittsburg and broncos loosing to the chiefs (hopefully c.chambers can help us make the playoffs unlike he did when he was with us, excluding his rookie yr). ppl i think we can do it we just gotta handle our biz this weekend, hopefully we can sellout the stadium and put some noise on houston’s passing attack….big ben scares me after what he did to gb def but with our qb pressure we can do it. lets hope and see what happens.
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
Wow
Were more in it than I thought. By the way, this day three years ago, nick saban told us that he would not leave miami and become alabamas coach….what a guy.
by Brettdolfan on Dec 21, 2009 6:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
screw saban
i want texas to woop his ass
I want what's coming to me, the world and everything in it. - Tony Montana, Scarface
"Wow" is right
This is a much better scenario than I had originally thought. I’m putting my money on scenario 3 at this point. I don’t see JAX beating the Pats and I’m hoping the Steelers are looking to play spoiler to the Ravens.
Stay Positive
Parcell's plan
Everyone including me believes in Parcells plan. I hope the big picture gives us a contender for several years. i am so impatient, i have to remember that we are less than 2 years removed from 1-15. I do not get some of our personel moves, so Im gonna have to have faith. if we do sneak in we will get bounced like last year. we are just not there YET!!—
8-8 is a victory at this point!
by phatfinfan on Dec 21, 2009 6:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Parcell's plan
Everyone including me believes in Parcells plan. I hope the big picture gives us a contender for several years. i am so impatient, i have to remember that we are less than 2 years removed from 1-15. I do not get some of our personel moves, so Im gonna have to have faith. if we do sneak in we will get bounced like last year. we are just not there YET!!—
8-8 is a victory at this point!
by phatfinfan on Dec 21, 2009 6:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
One more ridiculous playoff scenario (can this be added)
If we lose to Houston but beat Pittsburgh, then we need:
Tenn to lose San Diego ( doesn’t matter after that)
NY Jets to lose to either Indy or Cinci
Jacksonville loses to both New England and Cleveland
Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh, but lose to Oakland
we end up in the 6th spot with Denver in the 5th spot
too crazy, but it would still be sweat to get in
start clemons over gibril
sign ronnie to a long term deal
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
by ronnie brown for president on Dec 21, 2009 6:28 PM EST reply actions
matty- here is proof
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=01015155&15=50051445&16=40541140
start clemons over gibril
sign ronnie to a long term deal
the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
by ronnie brown for president on Dec 21, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, two 8-8 teams making the playoffs...
That has got to be a first. And the weird thing is it is pretty feasible as long as Josh Cribbs returns two TDs against Jax.
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
Scenario 2
In scenario 2 if Denver loses to Philly and beats Kc their strength of victory drops significantly, and Phins win out theirs goes up. Strength of victory is alot closer than it appears. We need to hope for the teams DEN beat to lose, and hope teams the Phins beat too win. Complicated, yes. Possible , yes. Cheer for Washington tonite. (DEN beat the Giants)
by BLEEDGREENANDORANGE on Dec 21, 2009 6:51 PM EST reply actions
playoffs are still very possible
Steelers beat a very good Packers team. I don’t see Jacksonville beating the Patriots. However, it is possible.
On other note. Still pissed about that B.S. penalty that put the Titans in field goal range. Worst call of the year IMO.
No, this is hands down the worst call of the season:
Driver of the Make David Lee OC Bandwagon
Repentant Former Driver of the Trade-Ronnie-Brown Bandwagon.
ot was the Darren Sharper pick 6
that should have resulted in a touchback and Miami’s ball at the 20
dont remind us
Self-proclaimed president of the Pat White and Brian Hartline fan club.
No hating on Jay Fiedler, please.
Official Back-Up Phinsider LOL'er.
The one and only "ho-nerd"
What do u guys think would be the likeliest scenario?
-"No excuses, No explanations"
-Matty's assistant
- LN21 and MHTD - Going Commando
- Founder of the Draft Brandon Spikes Bandwagon
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 21, 2009 9:16 PM EST reply actions
Guys we are done!
Matty sorry to be a wet blanket but I really don’t see us in the playoffs! And I am fine with it we are a young team who has shown heart and the future looks really good- As long as we get rid of Ginn and Gebril wilson and Upgrade. Don’t hate me for not believing I would love to see Henne get playoff experience but I just don’t think we can do this one! Hopefully I am wrong and everyone can call me an Idiot. What I do hope to see in the next two games is Lex Hilliard getting the ball, Ricky has developed fumblitis lately and I would also like to see what Lex has got I have a feeling the guy will be good.
this whole post argues with you thinking we're done
not saying, I’m just sayin..
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I know
But when You look at what has to happen it looks pretty bleak. And as long as I have been a dolphins fan we have had to earn our playoffs and not luck into them.
I wouldn't say it's bleak
look at Scenario 2. We need Jacksonville to lose once (and they go to NE this week) and Denver to lose to KC (Denver is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, and Orton sucks). So while maybe it’s “unlikely” it’s not impossible or bleak. Bottom line is, we can only win out and hope for the cards to fall in our favor, and as long as we are putting pressure on other teams to win, we’re in a good spot. This is the NFL, nothing is ever guaranteed and crazy things are the norm.
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
LN21 and MHTD - Goin Commando
I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 21, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Scenario #3 is my favorite, personally
The Jaguars can definitely lose to NE. The Steelers have the ability to knock off the Ravens at home in Pittsburgh. And the Dolphins could very well knock off the Texans and Steelers at home.
I refuse to give up. I’m not saying I expect it to happen – but we certainly are not “done” just yet.
umm did u not read this post?
we still have a shot, in fact there are many scenarios in which we can still make it…granted it is not the best of chances, but it can still happen
-"No excuses, No explanations"
-Matty's assistant
- LN21 and MHTD - Going Commando
- Founder of the Draft Brandon Spikes Bandwagon
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 21, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
I hope we do make it
But like I said we usually earn our spot not rely on others losing. Was it 2003 When we went 10-6 and missed the playoffs that is our luck! We usually need 11 wins to get in. Don’t get me wrong I am not a hater I have been in fist fights over the dolphins I just feel like this year we are not going to the playoffs.
yea something like that
and yea nobody likes to depend on other teams to decide their destiny, but that’s the position we put ourselves in, and we have to live with the consequences, whether they are in our favor or not
-"No excuses, No explanations"
-Matty's assistant
- LN21 and MHTD - Going Commando
- Founder of the Draft Brandon Spikes Bandwagon
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 21, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
first things first fellas we need to take care of business on sunday
And beat Houston. And if my memory serves me right we never beat them before.
by Superzoe92 on Dec 21, 2009 9:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Another Playoff Scenario?
Hey, just wondering…. if MIA wins out, JAX loses 1 game, and both DEN and BAL lose 1 game each (has to be Week 16, with the Steelers beating the Ravens and and the Eagles beating the Broncos).. wouldn’t that scenario work as well? This would leave MIA, BAL, and DEN tied at 9-7, with conference records of 7-5 each. Common game record would be 2-3 each, which means it goes to strength of victory tiebreaker. Denver has best strength of victory, then Miami, then Baltimore…. meaning Broncos are 5th Seed and Dolphins are 6th Seed. Please let me know if this is correct, because I see it as eminently possible.
sounds good to me
-"No excuses, No explanations"
-Matty's assistant
- LN21 and MHTD - Going Commando
- Founder of the Draft Brandon Spikes Bandwagon
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 21, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
This scenario is assuming that the Jets/Titans/Texans/Steelers backlog at 7-07 each lose a game. Pittsburgh and Houston would have to have lost for Miami to win out. The Jets will lose to either the Colts or the Bengals (probably both) and the Titans will lose to San Diego. Just to clarify that we do need that extra help, but it so likely to occur that we have to assume it for the scenario’s sake. Hope that makes sense… haha
isn't the scenario you laid out what I said in #3?
Dolphins win out, Jax loses one game, and the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh.
Isn’t that what you’re saying here?
Respectfully, no sir. I was asking about this scenario: 1.) MIA wins out. 2.) BAL loses @PIT next week. 3.) DEN loses @ PHI next week …. supposing the lesser 7-7 teams each lose 1 game (which, considering their opponents, is highly likely), this scenario would leave Miami, Denver and Baltimore ALL tied at 9-7, with identical 7-5 conference records, as well as identical 2-3 records against common opponents. Going to the 5th tiebreaker, strength of victory, Denver and Miami advance while Baltimore is out of luck. Just wondering if this works as well… when looking at the upcoming schedule, I consider this the most likely scenario. I guess its splitting hairs, adding Denver to the mix, just wanted to see if Miami had a shot in the event of a 3-way tie at 9-7…… thanks Matty for your insight, this blog is the sh-t
you are correct
I got ya now. If you throw Denver into the mix with a 9-7 record too – but their loss coming to Philly and NOT KC, then it would be a 3 way tie for two spots. And like you said, the Ravens would miss out based on “strength of victory” – as of now, of course.
Scenario #2 isn't quite correct
If Denver loses to BOTH Philly and KC, then the Dolphins won’t necessarily get in, even with a JAX loss. If Denver loses to both, Baltimore wins both of their games, & Jax loses one, then the Phins will be tied with the Titans for the last wildcard slot, which obviously they’d take on tie-breaker. Even if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh, if we don’t maintain our SoV lead over them, they take the first slot, and we’re again tied with Tennessee and lose the second slot. If Denver ONLY loses to KC, then we’re okay, though. Since Denver would then be in the tie-breaker with Miami and Tenn, the head-to-head loss to Tenn would matter, since they haven’t wont against Denver.
Anyway, I’ve actually come up with 12 possible scenarios for us to get in. All of these assume that Cincy wins the South, as I totally forgot that they could end up 9-7 when I was working these out. They also all assume that Miami wins both of their games:
- NE loses both
- Jax loss, Tenn loss, Denver loss to KC
- Jax loss, Tenn loss, Ravens lose both
- Jax loss, Tenn loss, Denver loss to Philly, we gain SoV over Denver
- Jax loss, Ravens lose both, Denver loses both
- Jax loss, Ravens loss to Pitt, we hold SoV over Ravens
- Jax loss, Denver loss to KC, Denver wins over Philly
- Jax loss, Denver loss to Philly, Denver wins over KC, we gain SoV over Denver
- Ravens lose both, Denver loss to KC
- Ravens lose both, Denver loss to Philly, we gain SoV over Denver
- Ravens loss to Pitt, Denver loss to KC, we keep SoV over Ravens
- Ravens loss to Pitt, Denver loss to Philly, we keep SoV over Ravens, we gain SoV over Denver
Of those, 6 is probably the most likely, but I think a few of them are still fairly likely, at least to get us to where we’re relying on strength of victory as a final tie-break. Speaking of which, Baltimore, Denver, and Miami are all close enough on SoV right now that it could easily swing to any of them taking the lead on that in the last 2 weeks.
I need to proof-read better...
When I said that “they’d” take the tie-breaker if Tennessee is tied with the Phins, I of course mean Tennessee will after this week’s game.
And, when I said the head-to-head loss to Tenn “would matter” if Denver was tied with them as well, it of course should be “wouldn’t matter”.
#2 is technically correct
I guess I should have stressed that Denver would need to win in week 16 against Philly. But I don’t think it’ll matter cus I don’t see Tennessee beating SD on Xmas night. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it and update it IF Tennessee beats SD on Friday.
lol
DA-DOOING, DA-DOOING………….That’s my brain after reading this entire thread!
by BLEEDGREENANDORANGE on Dec 21, 2009 11:04 PM EST reply actions
I'm a bit confused.
On the scenario with Tennessee involved, wouldn’t scenario 3 take effect once ravens and jags lose next weeks games? The only thing I can think about is whether it is for a different seed. Someone explain please…
Ronnie Brown is my hero.
Self-Proclaimed Phinsider Poet / Rapper
by phins23 on Dec 21, 2009 11:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions
the difference
If Baltimore loses both games and Jax loses one, the Dolphins would lose the tie-breaker to Tennessee because it’s only a 2 way tie and the Titans beat the Dolphins. But if the Ravens, Dolphins, and Titans all tie, then the Titans are eliminated because in a 3 way tie, head-to-head means nothing. Titans would lose out on “conference record” tie-breaker.
of course
if the Titans lose to the Chargers on Christmas eve, then we can forget about them as long as the Dolphins can win their own games.
So
We need bal to lose next week only considering tenn wins out?
Ronnie Brown is my hero.
Self-Proclaimed Phinsider Poet / Rapper
by phins23 on Dec 21, 2009 11:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions
i'm so confused
1) if baltimore loses to pitt and jags lose to either NE or CLE we r in? No matter what Tennessee does?
Ronnie Brown is my hero.
Self-Proclaimed Phinsider Poet / Rapper
As long as we keep the strength of victory lead over Baltimore, yes
If it’s a 3-way tie with the Phins, Titans, and Baltimore, there’s no head-to-head tie-breaker since neither the Phins nor Titans have played Baltimore. Next breaker is conference record, and both Miami and Baltimore will beat Tenn on that, no matter what, so only Miami & Baltimore are left. Next breaker is Strength of Victory, so if we win that, we get the #5 seed.
If Denver also ties with us, Tenn, and Baltimore, it gets a little more complicated, but we’d still be guaranteed either the 5th or 6th seed, as long as we have the strength of victory tie-breaker over either Baltimore or Denver.
Dumb move...
We wouldn’t even be going through this if we had Chambers.
(sigh)
Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Four 2008/2009 Matty Awards
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I got dibs
by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 22, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
scenario 2
In scenario 2, why do the jags need to lose one of the last 2 games? If we win out and they win out, we’re both 9-7 but we beat them head-to-head, so don’t we have tie-breaker over them?
by Sethual Chocolate on Dec 22, 2009 8:59 AM EST reply actions
Because of a 3-way tie
If there’s a 3-way tie with Jax, us, and either Baltimore or Denver, then the head-to-head won’t matter, because neither us nor Jax have played Baltimore/Denver. In a 3-way tie in teams in different conferences, head-to-head only counts if one team has swept the others, or one team has lost to both the others.
ok so
im gonna be like everyone else here and be confused
you keep saying IF our SoV is higher, does that just take into account records of teams we have beaten and therefore is too much of a mouthful for yall to want to explain? lol
Strength of victory
is the winning percentage of all the teams that one team has beaten. I say “if” because the “strength of victory” calculations I made above could all change depending on how those teams finish their season.
okay thats what i thought...
thats really splitting hairs for a tiebreaker though haha
So Matty, if your listening,
does this mean if we beat Houston, NE over Jax, SD over Tenn and Pitt over Bal that in week 17 we play Pitt for the 6th spot?
by uncle finster on Dec 22, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
That is a VERY POSSIBLE SCENARIO!!
And I think it’s likely, NE, SD and us I think are locks and I like Pitt this week, how great would that be, 2 years in a row win and your in, in week 17.
by uncle finster on Dec 22, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
u may want to get that checked out
-"No excuses, No explanations"
-Matty's assistant
- LN21 and MHTD - Going Commando
- Founder of the Draft Brandon Spikes Bandwagon
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 22, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Basically Win or go home, and hope for the worst for your WC rivals.
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
playoff scenarios
hold on a sec, i was reading up on the tiebreakers involving wildcard teams and they are as follows: head-to-head, conference record, common opponents, etc etc. if this is so, then jax winning their last two games wouldn’t even matter (given we win out also), despite them holding a 8-4 conference record to our 7-5. we beat them head-to-head! i dunno, it seems everything i read is different.
if it's only us and Jax, then yes we win tie-breaker
but in a 3 way tie, head-to-head means nothing unless one team beat BOTH teams in the tie
ohh, and another thing…ravens look really good right now. i seriously am hoping that they lose to the steelers, but the way ravens are playing that may not happen. so don’t hang your hat on that. id say maybe the best chance to get in is to have pats play like crap these next two games against formidable opponents and hope they lose. den is not likely to lose to KC.
WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIO
As if anyone cares at this point……
If Miami beats the Steelers, we need:
- Jets lose to Bengals
- Texans lose to Patriots
- Ravens lose to Raiders
- Jags lose to or tie Browns
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