The Elephant in the Room: The Perfect Season

As we sit here in mid-December, Dolphin fans everywhere can rejoice that our attention is still squarely focused on the Dolphins making the playoffs with our new franchise quarterback (hopefully) leading the way. Perhaps this is why there has been very little discussion about the situation the 1972 Dolphins currently find themselves in: week 13 with not one, but TWO 13-0 teams on the loose. Placing this in perspective with the season the 2007 Patriots had, and the 10-0 2008 Titians, I couldn’t help but wonder if it was becoming easier, for whatever reason, to go undefeated. My initial thought was that the realignment of the divisions that occurred in 2002 might have made it easier for a team to go undefeated simply because there are fewer division games on the schedule each year; typically the toughest games a team plays. Did the 2002 realignment make it easier to run the table?  I don’t think I can definitively answer that question, but hopefully I can at least provide some interesting history and discussion on the quest to navigate through an entire NFL season undefeated. Is it time we start excepting that the exceptional feat of the 1972 Dolphins will soon be equaled? Will the Colts or the Saints be the ones to do it?

I decided to take a look back (with the help of http://www.pro-football-reference.com) through the entire Super Bowl era to see how often a team has started a season 10-0. Why 10-0? Though somewhat arbitrarily chosen, before you start talking undefeated season, you typically wait until schedule is at least halfway over. Honestly, it’s also much easier looking through NFL history for teams finishing the regular season with at least 10 wins vs. 9 or 8. I expanded my search to teams that started 9-0 before 1978, when the regular season was still 14 games, since this roughly equates to starting 10-0 with a 16 game schedule (again, also very subjective).  I feel this criteria helps highlight the biggest threats to the undefeated season in NFL history.

Since the first Super Bowl season of 1966 through the 2009 season (44 seasons), there have been 14 teams to start a season at least 10-0, and the 1973 Minnesota Vikings started 9-0. Of the 13 teams that we can really compare stats on (since the 09 Colts and Saints aren’t done yet), 5 (or 38.5%) of them won the Super Bowl, and 3 lost in the Super Bowl.

Here is a table of the 15 teams that started 10-0 (or 9-0 before 78’) or better. An explanation of the last column can be found below along with a discussion of my findings, so skip the table if you don't like numbers.

*Won Super Bowl

^Lost in Super Bowl

So who are the underdogs to hand the previously unbeaten their first loss? The teams that defeated a previously undefeated team with a 9/10-0 or better record came into the game with an average win percentage of 0.597, which basically means almost all of them were very competitive teams. In fact, only 3 of the 13 teams to knock off an unbeaten that late in the season had a win percentage below 0.500. The worst team to beat an undefeated powerhouse was the 1990 LA Rams who, at 3-7, defeated the San Francisco 49ers 28-17 in San Francisco.  LA would finish 5-11, while the 49ers would finish 14-2 before losing to the New York Giants in the Conference Title Game. The San Diego Chargers and the NY Giants are each responsible for defeating two 10-0 or better teams, while no other franchise has ever defeated more than one.

Central to my theory is the competitiveness of an undefeated teams division. If you look at the combined win percentage of the remaining teams in the division at the end of the season (last column), you see that only 3 of the 13 divisions fielding 9/10-0 or better teams had a combined win percentage above 0.500. Interestingly enough, the closest team to matching the 72 Dolphins, the 07 Patriots, played in a division with a putrid win percentage of 0.250. The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets combined to win just ¼ of their games in 2007, going 12-36. The next two easiest divisions for 10-0+ teams? The 1984 AFC East under the 11-0 Dolphins at 0.344 and the 1972 AFC East under the 14-0 Dolphins at 0.348. There are a lot of reason division games are so tough, as we all know. You get to play an opponent once and then scheme for second game within the same year, the intensity of a division rivalry, and the familiarity between the teams are just a few reasons. There are many examples of great teams losing to poor division opponents, a prime example being the 2004 Miami Dolphins beating the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots (who lost only 1 other game all season, to the Steelers, who they then beat in a rematch in the conference championship). It’s just not easy to sweep a division opponent. This year, for example, the Dolphins split 1-1 with both the Bills and Patriots, in 08 they split 1-1 with both the Jets and the Patriots. My theory is simple: decrease the number of division games a team plays and increase the chances of a great team going undefeated in a bad division. 

I find it especially intriguing that the 2007 Patriots lost to a team they were playing a second time, and one that had played them very close in the first game (similar to how division games often play out). I’m sure the Giants themselves will tell you they wouldn’t have won the Super Bowl without that week 17 game vs. the Patriots. If the 07 Patriots had played in a division with halfway competent opponents, maybe16-0 never would have happened (for example, if the Colts were still in the division and had another shot at the Patriots in 2007).  It’s also interesting to note that if the season ended today, the 2009 Saints would have the second easiest division for a 10-0+ team, with the current combined win percentage of the rest of the NFC South at 0.308. Both of those numbers, well below the next lowest win percentage for the divisional opponents of an undefeated team of 0.344, came after the 2002 realignment. Of the 13 teams to start 9/10-0 or better, 5 of them have come in the 9 seasons since the 2002 realignment. 

So let’s talk about those 09 Saints, and the Colts for that matter too. Is this the year our undefeated season is equaled? The Colts have stated they are not going to try for 16-0, instead opting to rest their players for the playoffs, potentially starting with a few this weeks game against a desperate Jacksonville team. Assuming that either the Jets or the Bills can beat Curtis Painter and the Colts’ backups, we might not have to worry too much about the Colts. The Saints, on the other hand have come right out and said they want to go undefeated. So, can they do it? The regular season certainly looks possible, with the remaining schedule consisting of the Cowboys (upset?) and Bucs at home, and an away trip to Carolina to close the season. But they would then have to navigate through the playoffs against the Vikings and defeat whoever represents the AFC (Indy?). A lot of "if’s" in there, and so far, they just don’t look like the 07 Patriots or the 72 Dolphins, who usually obliterated their opponents each week. The last two weeks the Saints have managed 3 point victories to not so stellar teams (the Redskins only lost due to a missed a 23 yard FG….23 yards. Seriously. Absurd). I personally don’t know if I believe that either team will run the table given how close so many of their games have been.

However, even if it doesn’t happen this year, after looking at all the data, I believe there is a clear trend towards teams lasting longer into the season undefeated, and it won’t be long before another undefeated season happens. I feel this trend is related to the 2002 realignment, and the fewer division games played in each season. A very good team in a bad division with one fewer team than the past to compete with (i.e the 09 Saints and the 07 Patriots) has a much easier path to perfectville. As Dolphin fans, I think we need to accept that the record will likely be tied soon, and marvel in the fact it’s stood for over 35 years.

 One thing is for sure, if either the Colts or the Saints do go undefeated, one of these key moments will likely define their undefeated season:

"4th and 2"

via i2.cdn.turner.com

"23 Yards: Wide Right"

via image3.examiner.com

I could hit a 23 yard field goal. Seriously. I played soccer. 

And now back to your regularly scheduled playoff chase already in progress...