Simplifying the playoff picture

by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 2:17 PM EST in 2012 Miami Dolphins News

When I finally had time today to check in at the site, I saw that we had about six new fanposts regarding the different playoff scenarios. So I decided to delete all but the two posts that were created first (and are very well detailed - here and here) and make this one that will hopefully make things very simple for everyone to understand.

Keep in mind that all of these scenarios are based on the Dolphins winning their remaining three games. If they do not win out, then the scenarios below are worthless.

Here's how the Dolphins can make the playoffs if they win their last three games:

A) A loss by the Patriots.

B) A loss by the Ravens.

C) A loss by the Broncos to either the Raiders or Chiefs.

That's the situation in a nut shell. If you want more details as to why, then continue reading below...

Scenario A
It would give the Dolphins the AFC East title. If the Pats lose to Buffalo, then Miami wins the division based on division record tie-breaker. If they lose to Houston or Jacksonville, then the Dolphins would win the division based on the conference record tie-breaker. Either way, a Pat loss means a Dolphins division title.

Scenario B
If both the Dolphins and Ravens win out, then the Ravens would have the tie-breaker over the Dolphins. Why? The first tie-breaker is head-to-head and that's irrelevant here. The second is conference record and both would have only 4 conference losses. The third tie-breaker is record in common games. The Dolphins and Ravens have played four common opponents (NE, SD, Indy, Pitt). In this scenario, the Ravens would be 3-2 against those teams while the Dolphins would be 2-3. Even though their games against each opponent vary (Miami played Pats twice and Steelers once while the Ravens played the Steelers twice and Pats once), ALL 5 GAMES still count. This is a fact, as I checked with the NFL by e-mailing the Senior VP of Public Relations Greg Aiello.

Scenario C
If the Dolphins win out but the Ravens do as well, Miami can still get into the post-season if the Broncos lose one of their two remaining conference games. A loss to either the Raiders or Chiefs would give Denver their 6th loss of the season and 5th loss within the AFC. Therefore, the Dolphins - with only 4 conference losses - would get into the playoffs.

If the Broncos 6th loss came against the Eagles, then the Dolphins could still make the playoffs. It would come down to the "strength of victory" calculation - which is not really a calculation we could predict without getting into various debates over which teams will win which remaining games.

Why are the Jaguars still ranked as the final wildcard team?
This has been asked a lot. The reason is that the Jags still only have 3 conference losses. So don't we have to worry about the Jaguars? What if they win out? Wouldn't they get into the playoffs ahead of the Dolphins?

Well you probably didn't notice that one of Jacksonville's remaining games is against the Patriots. So if the Jaguars win out, that means the Dolphins would be AFC East champions. Therefore, their finish to the season is irrelevant in terms of the Dolphins' wildcard chances.

I hope this clears a lot of things up. Please keep all playoff scenario talk in this post or in one of the two fanposts I linked to earlier. Do not start a new post with more playoff scenario talk.

And if you have any questions, be sure to ask.

But please keep in mind the most important aspect of all these playoff scenarios. The Dolphins must win their final three games.

Let's take care of our own business and see what happens!

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Comments

Don't look past the Titans

This team has been extremely hot since Vince Young became the starter and are playing good defense as well. We CANNOT look past them and need to focus on stopping the best RB in football, Chris Johnson. We do this by controlling the clock, protecting the edges and pressuring Vince Young.

Big matchup to watch is Vontae Davis vs Kenny Britt….let’s see which rookie wins this one.

by tonyy on Dec 14, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions

of course

we can’t look past any team because one more loss all but ends Miami’s season. And none of their 3 remaining opponents are bad teams. You can make the case that all of them are as good – if not better – than the Dolphins.

Gotta take it week by week.

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Was it me or did I see Collins in for VY. I believe VY might be hurt, how bad I don't know. Did he ever make it back int o the game?

If he’s out I believe that might increase our chances just a little because Collins has been very good this year. Then again he could come out and play his A$$ off because he’s had to sit all this time. Judt to prove himself. I hope he stinks it up of course. He’s definatel nowhere near as mobile as VY.

by D0lphins4Life on Dec 14, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

I would much rather play Collins than VY

VY’s legs along with Chris “You can barely see me move I am so fast, yet alone tackle me” Johnson make a very scarey combo that I believe will eat our LBs for lunch. Let’s hope that the football gods will smile upon us and let us face Collins. No need for VY to play hurt with no real playoff chances right?

by Vanman_FishFan13 on Dec 14, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Right!

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by texascowpunk on Dec 14, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

Each game from here on out is a playoff game

Lose one, and you’re 99.9% done.

So the focus should be 100% on each week. If we take care of business, we will likely make it.

by Jevant on Dec 14, 2009 2:42 PM EST reply actions

yup

Just like how the past two have both basically been playoff games as well.

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

So you could add

D) JAX wins out

B/c if MIA wins out then they win AFC East

The Patriots Suck

by k2oconnor on Dec 14, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions

that would be covered under Scenario A

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I realized that once I hit submit

The Patriots Suck

by k2oconnor on Dec 14, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

by the way

want to talk about bad luck vs good luck. Just look at the Jets remaining schedule.

They get Atlanta next week – and both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner might still be out. Then they get the Colts, who could very well be resting all of their key players. Then they get Cincy in week 17 in a game that could be meaningless for the Bengals.

Imagine the Dolphins got to play the Falcons without their starting QB and RB? Or the Colts with all of their key players playing only a half, if that?

Schedule luck was not on Miami’s side in 2009.

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 2:56 PM EST reply actions

Like you said

Lets just worry about our games, and let the cards fall. I don’t think the JEST will beat the Colts regardless.

by Vanman_FishFan13 on Dec 14, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

matty answer this

what do you think it says about miami that with the hardest schedule this year we are still in the hunt for the wildcard and divisio, what do you think it says about our future and confidence we might have if we make the playoffs to make a postseason run ala steelers/giants have done before.

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by miafins23 on Dec 14, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

dont forget the Cards run last year! If I remember right they were 9-7 regular season

Just think how stupid the average Jest fan is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! ( a parody of a George Carlin line)

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by PhinsTifosi on Dec 14, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Only problem is that 9-7 likely will not allow us to reach the playoffs

Unless the Patriots have such an epic fall that they lose to what, two more of their opponents in three weeks?

Just have to doubt that that happens. But once again, one day at a time.

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by Dave.Phuller on Dec 14, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

Question Matty

I don’t understand scenario A. If the pats were to lose to the bills, wouldn’t we have the division record tiebreaker over them? We are 4-2 in the division with losses to the pats and bills. If the pats lost to the bills they would be 3-3 with losses to the dolphins, bills and jets? Am I wrong here? Something I’m missing?

by mhooligan on Dec 14, 2009 3:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions

That's right, but that's exactly what Matty said.

by kcorona4 on Dec 14, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

That's what I was trying to say.

But I’m going to fix my word choice to make it clearer.

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Oohh my bad

We were saying the same thing, just my misunderstanding.

by mhooligan on Dec 14, 2009 3:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don't know how much more clearer you can be to be honest. Stop reading to much end to it and read what he has....I know it's Monday so we can excuse the Hangover's and stupid pills. (lol) GO DOLPHINS!!!!

by D0lphins4Life on Dec 14, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Good/Bad luck

Matty Don’t you think that Indy will be playing all their best players vs the Jets if they’re still perfect? And playing Indy with perfection on the line could hardly be called good luck

by Mitty8888 on Dec 14, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions

Problem is we don't know how much Indy cares.

Their coach said they will play this week’s game like normal. But the Colts are known as a team that likes to sit their starters once they have the #1 seed wrapped up. So we’ll see after this week how the Colts approach their last 2 games.

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yes they are but they usually have a loss at this point in the season. The fact that there’s always hype about a perfect team, let alone the chance of two perfect teams meeting in the bowl makes it hard to believe they wouldn’t be playing their best players. But you’re right we will see what happens after this Sunday

by Mitty8888 on Dec 14, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

They'll play the first half and rest the second half

I don’t think that’s a group worried about setting records… their coach’s goal has been to stay under the radar all season.

by metalhead86 on Dec 14, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

that strategy has never worked for them in the past.

They won the super bowl the year they had a (for them) sub par regular season record. They have been exhibit A for why resting players creates no significant advantage, even though it seems like it should. I think they should mix it up if they want to win playoff games, and, furthermore, I think they might.

by Brooklynfinfan on Dec 14, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

IMO! I could see them resting there players once they get the lead. I hate to say it, bu the JEST are a very physical team and

I don’t see the Colts risking they’re already beat up team.

by D0lphins4Life on Dec 14, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Sadly enough,

the Jets could lose to an Indy team who is even resting their players.

OR, Peyton could start hot and jump to an early lead and give way to the backups to give them late-season experience along with resting their starters. And they could still win.

If Clemons starts, the Jets lose to any team not named Tampa Bay.

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by Dave.Phuller on Dec 14, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

Cant we just turn on "rewind" like in Madden and if we fudge up just rewind the plays till we get it right?

Henne is now our leader. Lets see what the guy can do !
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by MainePhinFan on Dec 14, 2009 3:29 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the breakdown Matty!

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by joel311 on Dec 14, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions

So if the Jags lose to the Colts next week does that change anything? Or no?

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by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 14, 2009 4:39 PM EST reply actions

no

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

but i guess it would help if the Dolphins don't win their last 3

but if that was to happen, so many teams would have to lose an additional game that I just don’t think it would be likely the fins get in

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

alright. i wasn't sure

Don't question my fandominium.
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by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 14, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks Matty.

I didn’t know about the Denver thing. And maybe the Bills will be rude hosts to NE as they were to us.

by Ritty77 on Dec 14, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions

Go Jags and Bills!

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by Patssuck456 on Dec 14, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions

LOL!

…wait….. wut?

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by Alpha6 on Dec 16, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

I think the Steelers are gonna beat the Ravens....

Other than that, the Titans and Texans are gonna be hard to defeat…

It will be interesting to see how Vontae plays against Andre Johnson.

Hopefully they put Clemens in for deep help cause Gibril Wilson is horrible at blowing coverage and then yelling at rookies on the sidelines….(i’ve lost all respect for him after that BS)

by scbrandon on Dec 14, 2009 5:28 PM EST reply actions

it's possible

but not probable

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by samdaman on Dec 14, 2009 5:29 PM EST reply actions

Agreed....

But, if we beat the Pats, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, and the Steelers going into the playoffs than we’ll be hot at just the right time and might be a force to be reckoned with!!!!!!!!!!

by scbrandon on Dec 14, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

my god! IT'S SAM! where the heck ya been man?

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by Kdog92 on Dec 14, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

thanks for keeping my post up

I feel good now. GO PHINS!!!

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by rangerjae on Dec 14, 2009 5:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Thanks for the mention Matty

by rroan28 on Dec 14, 2009 6:54 PM EST reply actions

By the way...

I’m glad you mentioned the strength of victory scenario regarding a Denver loss to Philly…I was about to write something about that in my post.

I call it the “AFC BCS Disaster Scenario.” — There’s really no other way to put it.

by rroan28 on Dec 14, 2009 7:25 PM EST reply actions

Thank you sir

Rec’d

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by Alpha6 on Dec 14, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions

Cheering on the rivals

I’m not sure if anyone has thought about this but we have to cheer for the Bills this week and then the following week we have to cheer for the Pats, funny thing how NFL works, sure would be something to keep the Pats out of the playoffs again due to a tie breaker!!! HA HA HA GO PHINS!!!!

by Jason Scott on Dec 14, 2009 10:34 PM EST reply actions

No cheering for the Pats,

if they lose that game and we win out we win the div, so no cheering for the Pats please, thank you in advance for your cooperation.
;^J

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by uncle finster on Dec 14, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

What are you?

…thank you in advance for your cooperation.

… a paid government advertisement?

LMAO

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by Alpha6 on Dec 14, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

I could be.

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by uncle finster on Dec 15, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

why would we cheer for the Pats?

the Jaguars mean nothing to us anymore. Did you not read the original post above?

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by Matty I on Dec 14, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions

No one reads anything anymore. They need bright pretty colors and shiny things

by rroan28 on Dec 15, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

LOL!

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by Alpha6 on Dec 15, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

I was thinking that I might have developed a split personality because I didn't remember writing this...

I even accused my wife of posting on my PC….

by Jason Scott_90 on Dec 15, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions

Vince is hurt and probably won’t be playing. Let’s hope Collins gets busted for drink driving on the way to the stadium and the 3rd string starts the game.

by canadiandolphin on Dec 14, 2009 11:40 PM EST reply actions

... can't be afraid of "donkey dick size" cigar smokin Collins..!

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by Alpha6 on Dec 15, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

Win our last 3? I'll take that!

Man, if we win the last 3 games, I’ll be ecstatic. It’s amazing that most fans sort of take it for granted.

by icerob on Dec 15, 2009 12:12 AM EST reply actions

For those who think Miami has the toughest schedule, take a look at the actual results for 2009. This “stat” is totally worthless (as it is based on last years results).

by Gwp1689 on Dec 15, 2009 8:13 AM EST reply actions

We play 3 tough teams. I don’t know if they’re tougher than others. All I know is we have to beat them all and I don’t know if we’re that good. I hope so, but I don’t know.

by icerob on Dec 15, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions