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Dolphins vs Panthers: Keys to Victory

It's hard to believe that the Dolphins will already take the field just days after a late rally prevented them from falling to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In less than 24 hours, the Dolphins will battle the Panthers up in North Carolina - with the winner completing their giant dig out of the 0-3 hole both started the season in and reaching .500 for the first time this season.

For the Dolphins, this will mark the third time in less than a month that they will have a chance to get back the the .500 mark. Below are just some of the most important factors for Thursday night's game.

Win the battle in the trenches
Here's the situation. The Dolphins played a game on Sunday. On Monday, they had their players in for film work. On Tuesday, the Dolphins hit the practice field for what essentially was a "Friday practice" - meaning it was shorter and less physical than a typical midweek practice. On Wednesday, the team went through a walkthrough before boarding a plane and heading up to North Carolina. Preparation time? Not much this week.

I take this to mean two things. One - I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins unravel some new wrinkle - likely involving Pat White - on Thursday night given that the Panthers also had minimal time to prepare for this game. But more importantly, I get the feeling that this game is going to come down to which team can execute better in the trenches. Who will physically dominate who? The answer to that question will go a long way towards determining who wins this game.

The Panthers and Dolphins come into this game ranked third and fourth respectively on the ground - each averaging just over 156 yards per game. Miami, of course, comes into it without their top running back while the Panther will likely have both of their guys who make up their own dynamic duo. The Dolphins, though, are expected to have Justin Smiley back at left guard after he missed last week with a shoulder injury - certainly good news for us.

Star-divide

With both teams being physical running teams - and even without Ronnie Brown, I do think the Dolphins will remain committed to the run - the difference could come down to which team's defense can do a better job at stopping the run and forcing the other team to throw. Miami is currently 7th in the NFL in rush defense and their 3.7 yards allowed per rush is 5th in the league. Meanwhile, Carolina is surrendering 4.6 yards per carry (25th) and 128 yards per game (25th).

Stopping the run also highlights another important aspect of this game: third down. The Dolphins are the second best team in the league in converting third downs - 49%, in fact - while the Panthers are in the bottom half of the NFL, converting just 40% of their third downs. The Panthers are also among one of the worst passing offenses in the league and quarterback Jake Delhomme is as turnover prone as they come. Holding Carolina to third and long could mean big things for this Dolphin defense.

Bracket Steve Smith all game
When the Panthers do drop back to pass, they really only have one target to stress over. But he's a hell of a target to have available to you. Steve Smith is obviously one of the game's most talented receivers. And his combination of strength and speed (despite his size) makes him a tough little guy to prepare for.

So what will the Dolphins do? I'm not sure - but I know what I'd do. I'd stick the more physical corner we have - Vontae Davis - on Smith all game long. He's got the strength to jam Smith at the line and the speed to hang with him as good as anyone really can. I'd then put safety help over the top as much as possible and tell that safety, which ever one it is, to not let Smith out of his sights. On the other side, you stick Sean Smith on Carolina's other receiving options - guys like Muhsin Muhammad and Dwayne Jarrett. Both are bigger, slower receivers and Sean shouldn't have a problem going one-on-one with those guys for most of the game.

That's my idea for defending Steve Smith. And it's important to note that you aren't ever really going to completely shut down a receiver like him. But Vontae is the kind of corner who can contain him - with deep safety help always available in case Smith just badly beats Vontae - which could definitely happen, especially if Davis misses the jam at the line. But I think if you play him physically and keep decent coverage on him, you can create some turnovers off of forced or inaccurate passes by Delhomme into Steve Smith.

Don't be gun-shy
You might look at the stats and see that the Panthers are ranked fourth in the entire league in passing defense and think that the Dolphins should really do everything they can to not put too much pressure on the young Chad Henne. Yes, Carolina is allowing just 186 yards per game through the air. But they are also seeing the fifth fewest pass attempts against per game - only 30. Why? Probably because of how ineffective they are at stopping the run. We saw this in 2007 in Miami, in fact. The Dolphins were ranked in the top 10 in passing defense for most of the year. Was this because our secondary was so good at defending the pass? Hell no. It was because they were dreadful at stopping the run. After all, why pass it when you can pick up 5 yard chunks at a time on the ground?

The Panthers, though, opposing quarterbacks to complete 63% of their passes (8th highest figure in the league) and have surrendered just as many touchdowns through the air as the Dolphins have (11).

Now I'm not here to tell you that Carolina's secondary stinks. That's not true. But they aren't nearly as good as the stats would lead you to believe. And I hope that while it's obviously important for this Miami offense to remain committed to the run, the Dolphins still trust Henne enough to make a few plays when necessary. The Panthers are going to stack the box. Let's take the leash off of Henne a bit and see what he's got.

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments |

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Well done. Very detailed
On offense,
I sense a break out role out of Hilliard or Sheets and White,
Call me crazy but I think Ginn will surprise us on offense

Defense,
Smith will get an INT
And well the way we win on Defense is left up to how the LBs play
if the OLB can get to Delhomme and the ILBs can contain Williams and Stewart then we win

Do our recievers exist? Ginn crawls out the hole, Bess is stumbling but hope is not lost.
Gibril i like you and imma let you finish the season but, Ed Reed is the best safety of all time, of all time!!

by dolfan0918 on Nov 19, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just when you thought Ginn couldn't catch a hand-off,,,

Phin-bassador/ Head Weatherman/ Injury Specialist of the Phinsider.

Bender: Who wants dolphin? Leela: Dolphin? But dolphins are intelligent. Bender: Not this one. He blew all his money on instant lottery tickets.

Hey little sister shot gun!

by Farorefox on Nov 19, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That and I think they’ll catch on that Henne throws to the right more and has more catches made there
Hmm wonder why? Bess and Camerillo? maybe?

Do our recievers exist? Ginn crawls out the hole, Bess is stumbling but hope is not lost.
Gibril i like you and imma let you finish the season but, Ed Reed is the best safety of all time, of all time!!

by dolfan0918 on Nov 19, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

crazy

2009 is a year of respect ladies and gentlemen. Lets get it.

"i think we have to look at it through his shoes" tuscanitunr talkin about brett farve.

13 1/2 phinsider fued points!!!

by MrMedic on Nov 19, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BTW can anyone imagine if we had Crowder and Vilma as our ILBs tagged with our front 3?
Our run defense would be top 3 all season!!

Do our recievers exist? Ginn crawls out the hole, Bess is stumbling but hope is not lost.
Gibril i like you and imma let you finish the season but, Ed Reed is the best safety of all time, of all time!!

by dolfan0918 on Nov 19, 2009 12:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

lex hilliard will score

and Chad Henne will lead us to victory

Who DAT: WILDCAT
DOA= DEAD ON ARRIVAL
Chillin in the Henne ERA!!!!
WAKE+brady= Roughing the Passer

by DPL3 Rollin on Nov 19, 2009 12:45 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Good write-up, but I'd also stress that the O-Line needs to contain the pass rush

The other defense has been getting to Henne a few too many times lately, and we all know how frazzled a young quarterback is under pressure (see Sanchez v. Bills secondary). They need to step it up a notch in order to contain Julius Peppers, who may be having a mediocre season but is one of the best physical linemen in the game.

Chris Coghlan for NLRoY
Miami Dolphins are headed back to the Playoffs!

by ocelotfox on Nov 19, 2009 12:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for explaining why their passing defense stat was so high! I was kinda worried about it until I read your explanation.

Also, I noticed Carolina is dead last in avg. kickoff return yards allowed (~30). Hopefully, we’ll see Ginn capitalize on this and get us good field position thoughout the game…and maybe even another KO return TD…or two!

by JayGatorPhin on Nov 19, 2009 12:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm HOPING

to only see 1 kickoff return from Ginn the entire game. :)

by blackadder_650 on Nov 19, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

with our defense, that's unlikely...

so I don’t want to see any 2 yard returns!

Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.

by DolphDallas on Nov 19, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to take this game as what it is, valuable playing time and experience

for our very, very young Qb, Cbs, Safeties, and Wide Receiver oh yeah plus RB. Those guys (panthers) are starting to play real well like they did last year and I expect them to do so tomorrow. As for our team, I’d just like them to give Henne a bit more of the load on the offense, for his development’s sake. I like what I am seeing out of him, but he won’t develope into a great qb if they don’t let him play. Just look at how the Coaching Staff from Tampa let Josh Freeman go wild out there and make plays. They know they are rebuilding and developing, we should realize that too sooner or later.

by MauMontaV5 on Nov 19, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Man...i'm pumped for this game

I can’t wait to get home from school and sit down and listen to the pregame.

I think we’ll see alot of Sexy Lexy tonight…..

"Welcome to The Doghouse"

Self-proclaimed president of the J.D. Folsom fanclub

Your best? Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen! -Sean Connery

by Kdog92 on Nov 19, 2009 5:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ok Ricky time to do your thing, pretend its 02 again

and lets see what The T-Lex can do,

Current Phinsider Feud Points: 23

T.Lex doesn't want to be fed, he wants to hunt. Can't just suppress sixty five million years of gut instinct.

by Patssuck456 on Nov 19, 2009 9:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

With J Smiley back and J Gross out for the season,

We will physically dominate them on both sides of the ball. They’re shifting an LG over to LT and starting an inexperienced LG in his stead. With our rotation of Starks, Merling, Langford, Ferguson, and McDaniel, we have a very good chance of making Williams and Stewart fight just to find lanes for 3-yard pickups. On the other side, Smiley is back. This offensive line has been far too inconsistent, but when they’re on, they’re perhaps the most physically dominant offensive line in the league. If Julius Peppers is seeing limited playing time due to a broken hand, well, that just gives Henne that much more of a pocket.

I truly do see Ricky Williams having a resurgence-type game tonight, with Lex Hilliard seeing between 5-10 snaps as a change-of-pace. I agree with Yahoo! that Polite will be featured more, specifically in the red zone. Our ground game will hardly skip a beat without Brown back there.

If Pat White can manage to run a new wrinkle without having to pass the ball, or Williams can take some WC snaps and run it successfully, we will not have a problem opening up passing lanes for Henne to exploit. I see that happening tonight.

We’re also due for some positive turnovers. Jake Delhomme is the perfect quarterback against whom to do so.

Dolphins win, 24-21

2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion

by Dave.Phuller on Nov 19, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Its all about stopping their rush

DeAngelo Williams is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is as good as any back in the league not named Peterson.

Think about it, this is a guy who had 1500+ yards last year on only 274 carries (5+ yards per carry), 18 rushing TDs (20 total, led the league, this while not getting all goalline carries as Stewart still had 10 TDs!), and despite all this NOT make the pro bowl!!!

Panthers have been winning despite all teams trying to stop their rush. We will need a big game from the front 7 IMO.

Don’t think Williams can carry the whole load, would like to see Hilliard get plays , and please let us see Turner.

May be able to watch it today so lets hope they make it worth my time :) Go Phins!

It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile

by MoLimits on Nov 19, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Btw, check this out :

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/6560/wake-hopes-long-journey-just-beginning

Nice article on Cameron Wake, don’t miss it

It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile

by MoLimits on Nov 19, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wake

It’s amazing. I changed positions, changed leagues, changed climates, changed coaches, changed countries. I’m literally in the opposite corner of the continent. It has been a major journey.

"— Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake

It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile

by MoLimits on Nov 19, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Matty

I have a questions Matty, Why would the dolphins activate a safety from the practice squad in Browns place and not activate Patrick Turner????

Draft Taylor Mays in 2010......................

by B1G SaMoAn TuNa on Nov 19, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe Wilson and Culver are hurting too much?

Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.

by DolphDallas on Nov 19, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the answer to that is fairly obvious....

the powers that be don’t have faith in him yet—-I would assume if he showed enough to them, they would play him.

by blackadder_650 on Nov 19, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about Cam Wake then?

What more has he got to show?
We didn’t see Charlie Anderson for the longest time? Where was he?

Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.

by DolphDallas on Nov 19, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

Patrick Turner’s activation has recently depended more on the absence of Erik Walden. This coaching staff likes Big Bodies on special teams, and with Erik Walden’s injury, that got Patrick activated on game day last week to fill that role.

Now, Nate Ness got activated to the 53 man roster, but not necessarily the game day 45. Erik Walden is still ruled out for the Carolina game, so depending on the game plan, Patrick Turner may get activated once again.

Let’s hope they actually include some offensive snaps for him this time.

A Dolphin Fan in the Desert

by Axan on Nov 19, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

one isn't related to the other

Turner is already on the 53-man roster.

Nate Ness was a practice squader who got signed to the 53-man roster.

by Matty I on Nov 19, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wish the Fins would let their CBs play the matchups instead of the sides of the field...

but I guess from a technique standpoint, it is easier to play one side.
I think they could shut down Jarrett and Muhammad with Smith one-on-one if they let him.
Clemons and Davis on Steve Smith should do the trick. Although, Smith v. Smith is intriguing…
Delhomme pass to Smith is deflected by Smith, juggled by the other Smith and then PICKED OFF by the Miami Smith. Smith tackled by Smith for a loss of 1 yard…
I wish they would throw on First Down and get into 2nd and shorts and 3rd and shorts and unleash the Lousaka Monster! FIRST DOWN.

Abandoned the Draft Sean Smith at #25 Bandwagon to Join the Draft Sean Smith at #61 Bandwagon and get Vontae Davis and Chris Clemons. Trio > me.

by DolphDallas on Nov 19, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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