Talking 3rd & Long: Who's to blame?

by Matty I on Jan 9, 2009 12:15 AM EST in 2012 Miami Dolphins News

Third down. It's the most critical down in football. Games are won and lost on 3rd down. And that's why the Dolphins' offensive struggles on 3rd down this season were enough to really anger even the most laid-back Dolphin fan.

The Dolphins ranked 23rd in the NFL in 3rd down conversions, with a 37% rate of conversion. The only playoff team worse than the Dolphins, ironically, were the Titans - the AFC's #1 seed. But I'm not talking about 3rd downs today in the general sense. Instead, let's look at how inefficient the Dolphins were on 3rd & long.

More specifically, we're going to look at two situations. The first is 3rd & 6+ yards to go. The Dolphins faced this situation 90 times this past season - which is actually a very low figure (lower than that of the other 5 AFC playoff teams, in fact). But of those 90 times, the Dolphins converted just 17 of them - only 19%. Think about that for a second. The Dolphins converted fewer than 1 in 5 3rd & 6+'s in 2008 and still found a way to win 11 games and the division.

Just how bad is 19%? Below are the rates on 3rd & 6+ for the other 5 playoff teams, as well as the NFL's 2 worst offenses in 2008 - the Bengals and the Browns.

Team	3rd & 6+	Pct.
Colts	38/100	38%
Steelers	42/129	33%
Chargers	31/94	33%
Ravens	42/136	31%
Titans	33/117	28%
Bengals	33/127	26%
Browns	27/127	21%
Dolphins	17/90	19%

Again, it's impressive how infrequent it was for the Dolphins to face such situations. But converting at a rate below even the Browns and Bengals - statistically the two worst offenses in the NFL in 2008 - is unacceptable.

The second specific situation I wanted to talk about was 3rd down and between 6 and 10 yards to go and a pass play was called. It's not necessarily too far to go for a first down and, in fact, is converted by a good offense around 40% of the time. Again, listed below are the AFC's 6 playoff teams as well as the NFL's 2 worst offenses:

Team	3rd & 6-10	Pct.
Colts	32/66	48%
Chargers	25/55	45%
Steelers	35/84	42%
Titans	23/63	37%
Ravens	29/80	36%
Bengals	28/77	36%
Dolphins	14/43	33%
Browns	23/86	27%

Again, the Dolphins fall on the short end of the stick - ranking below all the other AFC playoff teams and the putrid Cincinnati Bengals.

Now I know there's been a lot of talk of the Dolphins not being able to convert on 3rd & long and people wanting to blame Chad Pennington's lack of arm strength. But 6-10 yards is a distance where Chad's arm strength (or lack thereof) doesn't really come into play. Instead, I think the three teams listed above who are converting over 40% of these situations have 2 things in common. They have solid offensive lines who can pass protect well (or, at least, 2 of the 3 do - Pittsburgh struggled along the line in '08).

But most importantly, each of those teams have reliable wide receivers and tight ends who know how to get open and catch the football. In fact, each of those 3 teams also each have a clear-cut, go-to player who can step up in these kinds of critical situations. The Colts have Reggie Wayne, the Steelers have Hines Ward, and the Chargers have Antonio Gates. The Dolphins? Not so much.

So the question I pose to you is whose fault is it really that the Dolphins struggle so mightily converting on 3rd down and long? Is it the weak-armed QB, who many feel is to blame? Or is it the fact that the Dolphins lack a true #1 pass target and are instead filled with young, inexperienced receivers and tight ends?

Personally, I'm not too sure, either.

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Comments

once again autoblog strikes again

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 9, 2009 12:19 AM EST reply actions

dolphins need a big physical reciever.

I would suggest a name…but you guys already know it by now.

ill give you a hint if you dont remember..

starts with a br and ends with an itt

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 9, 2009 12:31 AM EST reply actions

Brenny Kitt?

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Jan 10, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

I would say- its the perfect storm of things.

Pennington’s arm strength is probably only a minimal factor- though you do have to consider that it limits the types of plays we are able to call (ie no throwing ‘across the hashes’ to the other side of the field, etc.).

The fact that we don’t have a dominant receiver contributes as well. Look at the Cardinals- worst comes to worst Warner can just heave it up to one of his stable of godzilla like receivers and 9 times out of ten they just pull it down.

I would say the O-lines inability to maintain pass protection is the biggest factor though. Even if you don’t have a stud at receiver, DBs can only maintain coverage for so long. If your O-line does its job, the receivers would eventually get open.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. Statistics are great. Our whole game plan is based off statistics. Our management of the game is based off statistics. Our recruiting is based off statistics. Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Jan 9, 2009 1:07 AM EST reply actions

2nd paragraph

lmao! Its a fact isn’t it. Must be nice having THREE thousand yd recievers

by kazam92 on Jan 9, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

The fact taht our interior OL was nothing special doesnt help

When you cant run up the gut, you have to use counters more often which becomes predictable.

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Jan 10, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

easily it's

penne… teams drop the linebackers to the 1st down line and hit anything in front of them, and penne doesn’t have the velocity to drop the ball over that drop…

btw: one reason for so few 3rd and longs… fins were pretty good at picking up 5 yards on 1st… and 2nd when you don’t convert on 3rd and long you have fewer opportunities for another 3rd and long (since the other team has the ball)

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 9, 2009 1:25 AM EST reply actions

"dropping the ball overtop" doesn't require a gun...that requires finesse and accuracy!

by dolphinsfan4life on Jan 9, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

actually

it requires velocity unless you want to arch the ball and thereby let it float… giving safeties who are watching the QB lock in on a receiver amble time to run across the field and pick the floater.

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 9, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions

3rd downs

The reason they had so few turnovers this year was the fact that they did not push it that hard on 3rd and long. If not polite up the middle or bess on a short pass, it was not attempted much. I think you have to pick your poisen. Another top receiver would help for next year.

by The Csonk on Jan 9, 2009 9:00 AM EST reply actions

Very good point

by dlux2561 on Jan 9, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

what sucks is....

that we CAN’T push it hard on 3rd and long. Maybe some don’t remember, but there was this guy who wore number 13 that played for the Dolphins, and 3rd and 14-20 was viewed as easily as 2nd and 4. If we get complacent…….we’ll get beat when it matters most.

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Jan 9, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

You're right that it's a combination of things

Especially the O-line and the WRs. We need a big, strong receiver to stretch the field and a stronger interior line.

by Saxonthebeach on Jan 9, 2009 9:26 AM EST reply actions

Receivers

Saying the other teams have receivers who know how to get open is not relevant. No one knows how to get open better than Camerillo, and Fasano seems to be just fine. Add Davone Bess to that. I think it’s more than having receivers. It’s probably more related to the non-existent offensive line.

by oceantracks on Jan 9, 2009 10:33 AM EST reply actions

well

I don’t know if it’s just the “know how to get open” part, but more of the ability to get open against any coverage at any depth. I know how to get open on 3rd and 8, but there’s no way I’m actually able to do it. You need a guy that can get to the open spot, battle the coverage, and come down with the ball.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 9, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Team needed to Gel

I think it was a mix of things … Can you do a breakdown of the last 6 games or so and see where we stand because I think it was Pennington not being comfortable with the WR and TE to begin the season. I do remember at one point were we were 0-20 on 3rd and long to start the season

by markus_13 on Jan 9, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions

I thought the same thing Matty.. 3rd DOWN STATS was something we overlooked much of the season..

and I can see why…we were WINNING! Which is the ultimate medicine and cure-all but we couldn’t properly hide the fact or better yet, take care of the fact that our 3rd down numbers were very poor. Sometimes (only during the actually games) when my synicism or pessimism comes out, that was probably the biggest thing I noticed and commented on because it is frustrating.
I’m very greatful and impressed by the good numbers the team had for the LOW number of 3rd down and 3rd and long situations they were in.. this team was LEADING or in top 3 practically all season for YARDS ON FIRST DOWN!. Many weeks they had the #1 ranking and finished very high….and doing this from where we’re coming from in the past several years, that stats alone is AMAZING because I sure most of you remember how horrible we’ve been on first downs over the years…

As for the culprits as to why we had problems converting.. it really is hard to say for certain but is likely a group of factors that has been stated here. I truly do not believe that Chad was the reason for this and not because I am a strong supporter of him. This “arm strength” argument just doesn’t cut if for the majority of situations… yes, I’m sure there were a “few” instances where getting the ball into a very tight spot in laser type fasion would have helped but overall, I"m just not buying it. Having a QB that is poised and very accurate is what is truly needed and we have that.
Some of it comes down to personnel at the WR and TE positions…some of it is surely the O-Line and lastly, I would think that the playcalling for many of the instances, is also a culprit.. However, even with all of these things that many of you have brought up, the biggest issue is what it basically always is in football and that is EXECUTION!.. I know and we know that we have (good enough) players to make the plays.. and that the play calls, even though we sometimes things differently, are plays that (should) work but when it’s actually happening, the execution is not always up to par.. there were a lot of changes due to injuries and it’s a new gameplan/system to get used to and all that…so I think this will greatly improve next season.. and with the schedule we have for next year, it will be imperative that our 3rd down conversion rate gets much better or we could be in trouble..

by dolphinsfan4life on Jan 9, 2009 5:38 PM EST reply actions

It's a combination of a LOT of different factors.

The lack of the threat of the deep ball meant the defenders could crowd the first down line.

The inability of WR’s to either beat the coverage or make the catch in good coverage.

The fact that we weren’t able to protect for 4seconds+ to allow for longer developing routes.

The lack of a big target that can just go up over the coverage and make the play.

The willingness to dump it off instead of forcing a ball and play the field position game.

It’s all fixable, and I would expect that to improve greatly over the next couple years.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 9, 2009 7:58 PM EST reply actions

Stats hurt my head

im glad im the duffus off the wall blogger not the number guy…there is a reason i changed my major…to AVOID math.

great post though…between advils the info was nice.

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 9, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions

Its in the hands of the QB

as far as what we are able to do on 3rd and long. Its basic, its simple, its a cold hard fact. What the QB can do in this position or can’t do decides it all. If we can’t move the ball on 3rd and longs……..then thats an achilles heel that others can, and will exploit and prevent us from becoming that “elite” team we all want.

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Jan 9, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions