Team Needs: Offensive Line
by Matty I on Jan 8, 2009 12:15 AM EST
in 2012 Miami Dolphins News
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PrintIt's now time to begin breaking down what are the most pressing needs of the Miami Dolphins as we head into the offseason. And keep in mind that these are in no particular oder.
So we kick things off with the big guys up front - the offensive line. It was thought that the offensive line would be an upgrade from '07 to '08. But injuries really hindered how effective the line could be.
2008 Key Contributors: Jake Long, Justin Smiley, Samson Satele, Ike Ndukwe, Vernon Carey, Andy Alleman, Al Johnson, Donald Thomas
Key Dolphin Free Agents: Vernon Carey, Ike Ndukwe
We all know about Vernon Carey's impending free agency. And it'll be interesting to see what happens. We all know he loves playing in Miami. But he also struggled at times this season as he moved back to right tackle. And further complicating things is the fact that he played above average in 2007 at left tackle - meaning some desperate team could potentially offer him LT money - which would be tough for Miami to match, if they even want to.
Meanwhile, Ndukwe filled in valiantly at right guard once Donald Thomas went down in week 1. He's an exclusive rights free agent - meaning the Dolphins have until a certain deadline to offer him a contract and should they decide not to, he'd become an unrestricted free agent. I'd look for the Dolphins to bring back Ike with a relatively low contract offer.
2008 Performance
The best way to quantify with statistics how an offensive line performed over the course of a season is to use the stats created by Football Outsiders. You can read the explanations of the stats right here. I'll do my best to explain them "in a nut shell."
In 2008, the Dolphins' offensive line ranked 12th in the NFL in the statistic "adjusted line yards" per carry - with an average of 4.25 yards. So what is "adjusted line yards"? Basically, Football Outsiders assigns a value for every running back carry to the offensive line, attempting to identify how much of the play's success was due to the offensive line. For example, a run for a loss is credited 120% to the offensive line. A run for 0 to 4 yards is credited 100% to the OL. And then these figures are adjusted for things like down and distance, and so on.
While "adjusted line yards" is one key stat, there are others. The Dolphins had a "power success" rate of 76% - which is terrific. Basically, the "power success" rate is the percentage of runs on 3rd down and 4th down with two yards to go or less that resulted in a first down or touchdown. The Dolphins' rate of 76% is good for 5th best in the entire NFL. And I think Lousaka Polite had a lot to do with that - though the offensive line did show that it could line up and pick up a yard or two when it needed to.
The one other interesting run-blocking stat is the "stuffed" percentage. Simply put, this measures how often the team is either stopped for no gain or a loss on 1st down as well as how often a team gains less than one-fourth of the yards to go for a first down (on 2nd through 4th downs). The Fins were stuffed 22% of the time, which ranked them 6th in the NFL.
As far as pass protection goes, the Dolphins allowed 26 sacks, which was the 10th lowest total in the league. Their "adjusted sack rate" - which is another FO stat, placed the Dolphins 12th, with a rate of 5.7%. Just so you know, "adjusted sack rate" is simply the percentage of sacks per pass attempt adjusted for things like down and distance.
But here's the thing. While these figures make you think the Dolphins' offensive line is above average, that is where stats fail. If you watched the Dolphins play, you'd know that they really were unable to run the ball consistently - mainly because the offensive line couldn't open up any holes for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on a regular basis. Hence the need to introduce the 'Wildcat.'
Meanwhile, we all saw on Sunday how the offensive line was also unable to keep Chad Pennington comfortable in the pocket. Sure, the Fins only allowed 26 sacks. But they didn't play that many teams with great pass rushes. And when they did, the results weren't that pretty - as our QB was taking a beating, even if he wasn't officially sacked. In all, too many QB hurries this year.
Questions Abound
There are a ton of question marks for the Dolphins along the offensive line as we enter the offseason. The only spot that isn't a question mark is manned by last year's #1 overall pick, Jake Long. He's solidified the left tackle spot, allowing just 2.5 sacks all season - ranking him in the top 5 among all left tackles.
But outside of Long, there are questions. Justin Smiley is said to be making good progress from his injury, but even if he's ready for camp, will he be as good as he was before the injury?
Samson Satele struggled in 2008. He just might not be big enough to play center in Miami's blocking schemes. He had too much trouble with bigger nose tackles and might even have to transition to guard. Al Johnson, who really isn't much bigger, could potentially be given a shot at the starting center job of the Dolphins aren't sold on Satele and they don't address the position with a free agent or high draft pick.
Over at right guard, promising rookie Donald Thomas saw his season come to an early close. He's close to 100% already and should be given every opportunity to win the starting RG job. But even so, he's still very raw.
And we all know the question of whether or not the Fins will re-sign Vernon Carey. This decision will likely be one of the key decisions all offseason by the front office.
Potential Unrestricted Free Agent Targets
Offensive Tackles: Jordan Gross (Car), Mark Tauscher (GB), Khalif Barnes (Jax), Max Starks (Pit)
Offensive Guards: Mike Goff (SD), Cooper Carlisle (Oak), Chris Kemoeatu (Pit)
Centers: Matt Birk (Min), Jeff Saturday (Ind), Jason Brown (Bal)
My Thoughts
Not many options out there, huh? Jordan Gross is intriguing, but will likely be offered LT money. And is it worth waiting and letting Vernon Carey hit the open market to take a chance on bidding on Gross? Tough call. Tauscher is coming off a knee injury and likely isn't a safe alternative to Carey, either.
I'd just re-sign Carey. I think he'll take a little less to stay in Miami and the alternatives aren't too intriguing. That is, unless the Dolphins want to take a right tackle somewhere in the first 2 rounds on draft day and let him start at RT. Regardless, the Dolphins do need depth at both tackle spots and should look to draft a tackle or two in April.
One intriguing prospect in free agency, though, is Jason Brown. He's a big, physical, mauling center - something this regime likes. He's young (only 25) and is a big boy (weighing 320 pounds). He's also athletic, proven by how he played some guard this year for the Ravens. If the Dolphins could land Brown, I'd be all for it.
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Well.......this kills my
Nicky Kiper and Gator McShay idea………lol You guys will just debate it here. Oh well, I’ll still enjoy the read.
Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions
nah.
doesn’t kill it. This is addressing the actual position of need, not the draft prospects lol…
Don’t worry, we’ll do it as the draft approached and all the declarations come in..
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
i like the idea of Jason Brown
….as soon as I read his name, i was thinking exactly what you wrote right after.
Same here
if we land Brown we can move Satele to Guard, which is useful if Smiley isnt 100%
"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"
-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic
i called it would be posted at 12:15...im EXTRODINAIRE!
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
LOL
well, whatever that is, you’re it.
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
is matty on vacation?
just has a bunch of pre-written posts set to auto post daily?
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Jan 8, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
This year is extremely deep
with O-linemen. We could easily get a starting RT AND Center without spending our 1st round pick on an Offensive lineman.
I would like to do a write up on this w/Nicky so I don’t want to go too in depth.
But this year is packed with (at least what appear to be) quality offensive lineman.
If Smiley and/or Donald Brown don’t recover properly and we have to address one or god forbid BOTH guard positions as well, then obviously we will have to hit free agency for something or we’d have to use ALL our picks on O-linemen as thats everything but LT.
He15man^2. . .get ready
I wonder how far along.....
Shawn Murphy would be as a project by then?
by picklescapone on Jan 8, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
I like the prospects of getting Jason Brown in FA
If he’s available, there isn’t another center in the league that fits our needs better. Young, huge, mean, and with potential to get better. If we can get him in FA, I say do it. I’d like to see what happens with Carey, because if we let him leave, I think we ABSOLUTELY have to get one with one of our first 2 picks. We can’t go into next season without a starting RT. I think Ciron Black, Eben Britton, or Trent Williams would be perfect picks. I don’t see either of them lasting to pick 2b, so it has to be with either pick 1 or pick 2a (I haven’t figured out the exact numbers of our picks yet..)
As far as the guards, I really hope Thomas and Smiley come back, but I still think we should look into getting one more starting caliber guard, in the event of a prolonged rehab or another (god forbid) injury. The OL needs to be addressed completely, and we definitely need to go into next season with 5 “sure as it gets” starters.
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
i'd like to see this.
i am especially interested in what we might end up doing at Center.
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Jan 8, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
hmmmmmmm using the 1st on a lb from usc
and using the redskins 2nd on a wr from rutgers
2nd on a cb
3rd and 4th on lineman
and the rest who cares
i like the sound of it
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
Bigger, Faster, Stronger
I would like to keep Carey if we can but he might be too expensive … I think he did a good job but not elite (see Ravens game) I see us getting a RT in the second round with one of our two picks so we could use that money to hopefully get someone like Brown.
Samson Satele overall hasn’t impressed me the past two seasons, he has been good but not great, just not very consistant. When you hear him talk about how him and Carey wouldn’t even be paying attention in meetings last year I lost a little respect for both of them. I think we could possibly trade him for a 3rd rounder or something like that or keep him and move him to guard. I’m not saying give up on him but if we could upgrade on this position with someone who meets our system I am all for it. What did Tony say we need to be “Bigger, Faster, Stronger” I think this move would fit that description.
Have to agree those stats look good but overall you have a great point that they don’t really show us anything due to the fact of all the tricks (Wildcat, Ginn Jr Reverse ect..) Out of the base offense running between the tackles we were terrible against some really bad run teams ie KC. You can bet the Trifetca is already all over this.
I say we keep satale
this may sound a little awkward but—> his value on screens and down field blockin is priceless (very great…much needed…idk how else to put it)
I always see him paving the way on screen passes and him as the only lineman sprinting down field making a block.
I like him. He may not be as big as you want but he’s one hell of a player. If we do bring in another center (lets say that mauler dude brown matty was talking about)…I think we should move satele to the RG postion. That would solidify it. He may not be big enough to take on those massive NT…but he is quick and physical enough to take out DE, lbs, and help on double team.
the main thing im trying to say is Satele is one “helluva” player.
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
(new sig by the way--> well revamped sig)
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
also..
that’s a long sig. just sayin lol
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 2:50 AM EST up reply actions
Does saying "bring back nat.." count. because that is more of a PSA if anything...
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
this work?
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
o....i see
do you want me to put you in there buddy?
i can tell you a bit jealous
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
LOL
your sig should just say “I <3 Matty”
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
what if we all had that??
hahahaha
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Jan 8, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
we’d be a cult. pass the blue kool-aid.
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
and the
yellow sno-cones
-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!
-No excuses, No explanations
by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Jan 8, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
ewww
lol
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with everything you said about Satele.
I agree that he really stepped up his downfield blocking, and his quickness is a very good quality in an OL. I agree that a move to guard would probably suit his size and attributes better than C, especially in a division where 2 of the other teams play 3-4’s with giant NT’s.
But I also think he is just too small, regardless of other qualities, to fit in our system as a center. If we want to be a smashmouth team that runs down people’s throats, we need a mauler for a center, a guy that can move NT’s without more than a chip block to help. But he would seriously help depth as a G/C backup.
But that still means we need to find a starting center. If Jason Brown hits the market, I’m on board. Bring him in, let Satele enhance our depth, and possibly start if Thomas/Smiley isn’t available or up to full speed.
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 2:50 AM EST up reply actions
Sparano- Coach Of Year
go over to MiamiDolphins.com and follow link to vote for Tony as Motorola Coach Of The Year
Vernon Carey is a MUST to re-sign.
—- Once again, big Vernon’s side of the line rushing numbers were at the top of the league. this has been a trend for the last 3 years. It has followed him thru 3 years of switching positions, from RT to LT and then back to RT. As good as we all think Big Jake is, the rushing numbers to his side were substantially lower than Carey’s were last year. This numbers are not a coincidence. VC is one of the best run-blocking Tackles in the league.
—- The main reason for great O-lines is continuity. Obviously, it takes talent to be able to win a starting job on a line, but its the units that stay together that usually become great. Wit the talk of Satele possibly moving to G, which means we’ll need a new C, and the possible loss of VC via free-agency, that would mean at least 3 new starters this year on the O-line. That sounds a lot like starting over to me. I beleiev a lot of SS’s problems were due to the rotating G situation.
—- As many of you remember, I was VERY vocal about drafting Matt Ryan because I knew that VC would command LT money when he became a free-agent. The loss of VC would essentially mean our 1st pick last year was just a trade of Jake Long for Vernon Carey. Jake played well this year, but he did not play as well as Vernon did at LT last year.
—- VC turns 28 right before the start of the 2009 season. he is coming into the most productive years of his career. He’s been very underrated because he has played for a horrible team his first few years in the league.
I would argue that VC is, and has been for the past 3 years, our best OL player. I think it is imperative that we re-sign him. This line needs depth and health. Draft a couple more OL to develop, but keep the OL of Long, Smiley, Satele, Thomas, and Carey together and let it develop.
If the Dolphins are determined to get bigger at C....
…then I wouldn’t mind them signing a guy in free-agency to replace Satele, and letting him compete at the G spots. At worst, the depth on the team will be bolstered by having him as a back-up at C/G positions.
I was unaware
of VC’s run numbers, but could they be slighty skewed by the Wildcat’s success early in the year? Just a question, I haven’t seen the actual numbers. But his numbers being at the top of the league are a surprise to me.
Also, the question isn’t “was Jake better as a rookie than Vernon was at 27.” It’s “Will Jake be better at 27 than Vernon was at 27?” That is when we can accurately say whether it was an upgrade or not.
And if VC can command LT money, we won’t be able to afford him anyway, correct? So the key would be getting him signed before he can test the waters and find out his worth to somebody else?
"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"
by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 8, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Those numbers can be skewed thanks to the unbalanced line and the Wildcat. Cus all those numbers are is ypc when running off right tackle.
hi matty
Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon
Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.
Read the numbers again.
The same trend has followed him for 3 consecutive years of positional switches from RT to LT and back to RT. That has nothing to do with the Wildcat.
In my mind, the key to drafting Jake Long...
…was being able to keep both of them. Having both of them makes this team better.
Also, the question isn’t "was Jake better as a rookie than Vernon was at 27." It’s "Will Jake be better at 27 than Vernon was at 27?"
Both questions are irrelevant. The only relevant question is whether your team is better with both or without. And as I said, the key to great lines is continuity.
Everyone has their own opinion on it. In my mind, losing VC takes away from the drafting of Jke Long because they were playing the same position. VC was playing that position at a very high level.
Is VC going to command anywhere near the money that Long got? No way.
But its water under the bridge anyway. All I am saying is that we had a LT playing at a very high level.
i don't disagree with you about VC
but i don’t necessarily agree.
I argued last year that I VC was our best lineman and had outstanding numbers. But it was not really saying much that he was the best guy on a bad line. ya know? I think the numbers were skewed because of that fact. I think he is worth keeping, but not paying a ton for.
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on Jan 9, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
This draft is gonna be awesome
if its me…i take the best player avail. in the 1st round…a real stud.
then in the 2nd i use both picks on the same thing. like 2 cb’s….or 2 linemen.
i think if you draft a RT AND A CANTER in the 2nd rd…the way we draft…carey is expendable and you can save money to upgrade Channing. I love him…but dude doesnt make plays consistantly. He doesnt scare anyone in coverage either.
Sign Goodman and Bell…offer small money to Channing…let Carey gooooooooo. We need big uglies….he is to soft
"CP10 doesnt sleep....he waits"
well put sir...
I had the extreme displeasure of re-watching the game last night on NFL network replay.. and I must have been wasted during the game to not see Carey getting owned over there. Sure Pryce is a great player but damn he was just bullrushing and ripping and totally owning Carey. Meanwhile Jake Brake did a great job on Suggs the whole game. I say let Carey go hit the Market Draft a RT maybe D.Thomas can play RT?
As far as Crowder I think it really depends on what we take with our 1st day picks. Like RZ said he isnt consistantly there and he has that lingering knee trouble.
Also if you think this team is gonna take a WR on the first day or even in the entire draft you are going to be sorely upset. We still have alot of interior needs that will and should be addressed first. We all want that stud WR but would you rather have that or a D as talented as the Ravens or an Outstanding Oline? I’ll take the latter 2 all day any day, just a thought.
i just really believe they will looks for a proven free agent WR...or Boldin by trade
"CP10 doesnt sleep....he waits"
Couldn't Agree More
I’ll say April begins the perfect storm. Parcell’s WILL create a monster (line). Somewhere out there there OL’s who want to be in Miami and some even who want to play with Long. Top that with a high draft pic and here come the huns!
WR’s buzz around the light, they’ll be plenty as the season turns.
"Don't swallow any of that. It'll spoil the taste of the bourbon."
Csonka
Samson Satele at RT?
He played every OL position at hawii and has ok size and speed and could prob match up against the power rushers he would see at RT and then we can sign Jason Brown and let Vernon Carey go because he could peob get LT money for a bad team like the Lions or Raiders.
O-Line Thoughts
I think this team will improve the overall depth of the line this offseason. It will be interesting to see if we ever get anything out of Murphy next season .. backup guard ???? We are also getting Thomas back but we don’t really know what we have with him as he only played one game. I say keep Ndukwe and let Allemen go. The thoughts of picking up a mauling center and keep Satele for depth intrigues me as that would really help out the team as the season goes on, he could play a lot of positions so that helps his value on the team .. I was crazy for saying we should think of trading him. The one thing that hasn’t been brought up is our lack of depth in the Tackle postion .. where would we be if we lost Carey to FA and Long goes down in the first game. I say keep Carey because he can play the LT position as well as the RT and draft a tackle in the 4th-7th round to help out with the depth.
I'd like to see them keep Carey and draft Alex Mack
I think we could get an early 3rd for Satele and we could draft Mack at 26th. He would be one of the top players in terms of talent but not at a highly desireable position. A move like that will solidify shortcomings in the running game, then we could look for defensive players.
"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."
Coach Paul Bear Bryant
I agree, I think Mack would be a good pick if we don't get Jason Brown
Except I would still like to keep Satele. Mack could start at either center or guard for us, and he may also be a good backup tackle.
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