Interesting Unconventional Stat: Air Yards & CP10

by GatorPhan on Jan 10, 2009 11:14 PM EST Comment 62 comments

I recently stumbled across a very interesting new stat at Advanced NFL NFL Stats (via Smart Football – Analysis and Strategy by Chris) that really struck a chord with me due to our QB conversation, and all of the people calling for Chad Henne to replace Chad Pennington due to the fact that he cannot get the ball down the field. It is a concept I am surprised was not the original way to do things in the first place. It addresses a question many people have probably asked themselves: Why in the world does a quarterback get credit for a 60 yard pass if he just dumps it to his RB, and the RB makes an amazing play to get up the field?

Granted, a smart pass from a QB can lead a receiver to be able to create the YAC- but ignoring the difference between yards actually thrown in the air, and YAC can lead to some misleading numbers. The article demonstrates the case of 2 QBs. Both QBs had just over 7 yards per completion, and both had a stellar QB rating of 95. One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Tavares Jackson. Obviously there was something wrong here. Air Yards aim to bring this disparity from the normal stats to the surface. Air Yards, simply put, measure the distance the ball actually traveled in the air from the line of scrimmage to the receiver.

What really interested me though was when I looked at the "Air Yards" rankings A-NFL-S had compiled. If you had to guess which QBs had the most "Air Yards" in the NFL, who do you think it would be? Probably some rocket armed QB, like Brett Farve. Nope. Maybe it was Drew Brees, who nearly eclipsed Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record? Think again. Surely the Dolphins own "noodle armed" QB Chad Pennington didn’t come near the top of the list right? All he does is dump it off and let our shifty receivers get up the field for him right?

Surprisingly, he was the #5 QB in the league in gaining "Air Yards" behind Jake DelHomme, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. He is just ahead of Sage Rosenfels, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees to round out the top ten. Pretty spectacular.

Of Chad Pennington’s 3,653 passing yards, 1,546 were yards gained after the catch. That means 2,107 yards were all CP and his arm. Given his 476 (regular season) attempts, that means he gained about 4.43 Air Yards per attempt. If the QBs were rated by that stat, he would fall one spot to 6th. The percentage of his yards after catch compared to total yards is 42.3%- which ranks him the #10 QB for AY by percentage. Looks like no matter how you slice it, Chad threw the ball further threw the air than all but a hand full of QBs, and really did not receive that much help from his receivers.

For a comparison to the "traditional stats"- Chad Pennington was the #9 QB in passing yards- behind Brees, Warner, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Cassel. Only Rivers, and Rodgers beat him in Air Yards.

The biggest disparity in stats is with Matt Cassel. In fact, Matt Cassel was the THIRTY SEVENTH ranked QB in AY. He is DEAD LAST in percentage of yards gained after the catch (57% of his 3,693 yards were gained after the catch).

Other QBs joining him at the bottom of the list: JT O’Sullivan, Jason Campbell, Brett the Jet Favre, JP Losman, and Seneca Wallace. Not exactly great company there. The QBs with the lowest AY in ’07 included Brodie Croyle, Joey Harrington, Brett Farve, JP Losman, and our own Cleo Lemon. The "class of ‘06" has such stars as Brett Farve, Mark Brunell, David Carr, and Alex Smith.

Now this doesn’t prove anything, but I’d say it gives us at least a hint that the Patriots have a brilliant system, and furthermore, that Matt Cassel sucks- and will probably be terrible with the next team that picks him up.

And as you could see, the man the Jets dumped Chad for was at the bottom of the list for the past 3 years. For all the talk of opening up the field, his cannon arm, etc- this is how he did this year: 1,779 of his 3,472 yards were after the catch- which equates to 3.2 AY/Attempt, or 51% of his total passing yardage. So how did that work for you? Maybe Laverneus Coles wasn’t just being spiteful when he said the ball machine threw a harder pass.

So how many of you out there would have guessed Chad Pennington was in the top 10 for every single category that measures how far the ball actually travels from the line of scrimmage, and the #5 overall? I’d say old "noodle arm" has acquitted himself pretty well. Maybe we have a stronger case for getting that big time #1 receiver than I thought. . .

Check out the full chart- as per Advanced NFL Statistics below (with a few added columns- see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html for the original):

Rank	QB	Total Yards	YAC	Air Yards	YAC %	Air Yards %	Air Yards/Attempt
1	Jake Delhomme	3288	1269	2019	38.59%	61.41%	4.9
2	Matt Ryan	3440	1404	2036	40.81%	59.19%	4.7
3	Phillip Rivers	4009	1840	2169	45.90%	54.10%	4.5
4	Aaron Rodgers	4038	1652	2386	40.91%	59.09%	4.5
5	Chad Pennington	3653	1546	2107	42.32%	57.68%	4.4
6	Sage Rosenfels	1431	664	767	46.40%	53.60%	4.4
7	Jay Cutler	4526	1881	2645	41.56%	58.44%	4.3
8	Peyton Manning	4002	1627	2375	40.65%	59.35%	4.3
9	Eli Manning	3238	1220	2018	37.68%	62.32%	4.2
10	Drew Brees	5069	2398	2671	47.31%	52.69%	4.2
11	Tony Romo	3448	1578	1870	45.77%	54.23%	4.2
12	Matt Schaub	3043	1470	1573	48.31%	51.69%	4.1
13	Ben Roethlisberger	3301	1368	1933	41.44%	58.56%	4.1
14	Kurt Warner	4583	2173	2410	47.41%	52.59%	4.0
15	Shaun Hill	2046	895	1151	43.74%	56.26%	4.0
16	David Garrard	3620	1494	2126	41.27%	58.73%	4.0
17	Jeff Garcia	2712	1248	1464	46.02%	53.98%	3.9
18	Trent Edwards	2699	1266	1433	46.91%	53.09%	3.8
19	Dan Orlovsky	1616	652	964	40.35%	59.65%	3.8
20	Gus Frerotte	2157	1023	1134	47.43%	52.57%	3.8
21	Tavares Jackson	1056	502	554	47.54%	52.46%	3.8
22	Donovan McNabb	3916	1805	2111	46.09%	53.91%	3.7
23	Matt hasselbeck	1216	451	765	37.09%	62.91%	3.7
24	J.T. O'Sullivan	1678	887	791	52.86%	47.14%	3.7
25	Joe Flacco	2971	1433	1538	48.23%	51.77%	3.6
26	Tyler Thigpen	2608	1101	1507	42.22%	57.78%	3.6
27	JaMarcus Russell	2423	1143	1280	47.17%	52.83%	3.6
28	Kerry Collins	2676	1292	1384	48.28%	51.72%	3.5
29	Kyle Orton	2972	1450	1522	48.79%	51.21%	3.3
30	Brett Favre	3472	1779	1693	51.24%	48.76%	3.3
31	Brady Quinn	518	230	288	44.40%	55.60%	3.2
32	Seneca Wallace	1532	755	777	49.28%	50.72%	3.2
33	Brian Griese	1073	488	585	45.48%	54.52%	3.2
34	Derek Anderon	1615	724	891	44.83%	55.17%	3.1
35	Marc Bulger	2720	1336	1384	49.12%	50.88%	3.1
36	Jason Campbell	3245	1686	1559	51.96%	48.04%	3.1
37	Matt Cassell	3693	2116	1577	57.30%	42.70%	3.1
38	Carson Palmer	731	358	373	48.97%	51.03%	2.9
39	Ryan Fitzpatrick	1905	848	1057	44.51%	55.49%	2.8
40	J.P. Losman	584	294	290	50.34%	49.66%	2.8

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

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Comments

yawwwwwwwwwwnnnn.........yea, thats great, what do you think ?

Start Henne

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Jan 10, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i love bassetts

smoking rally bowls for the phins since 2002! oh and screw the jets

by badjah on Jan 10, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol great pic

they yours?
i’d name ’em Penny and Henne, then debate all day long over which one to take for a walk

Football isn't a matter of life and death - it's far more important than that.

by Agumen on Jan 10, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually yawned looking at that pic

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Jan 12, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're a damn psychic

My brother and I were just talking about the need for that stat watching the Titans – Ravens game. We were talking about how McNabb had 300 yards in the wild card round, yet 70 of those were all down to Westbrook, so it totally inflates his stats. I had no idea people were already tracking it.

And I’m totally not surprised Chad is high up that list – even though we played a short passing game this year, our receivers weren’t elusive and we didn’t throw a huge amount of screens. Chad was really getting it done by himself with little run support and unkown wideouts all season. He deserved all the praise he got. When he had a bad game, we totally fell apart, because frankly no one on offense could pick up the slack. When you carry a team all season there’s no shame in eventually stumbling under the weight. Agree about Cassel and the Patriot’s amazing system – but I bet if you go back to last year you’d find Brady had an astonishing amount of air yards – they seem to be able to do it any way they want over there – makes me even more proud to beat them for the division title.

Basically this article puts most dedicated sports writers to shame. I hope you have a good job, GatorFan, otherwise the world is a strange place when no-mark talent journalists get huge salaries to attend games and write crap and at the same time articles like this are published free online.

Great job, and yet another example of what makes this site so amazing.

Football isn't a matter of life and death - it's far more important than that.

by Agumen on Jan 10, 2009 11:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my reason for not wanting cp next year is not about what he did this year

is about what beck/henne bring to the table

we should trade cp to get w/e value we can get (which will probly be around a 3rd rounder)

because we need that franchise qb. Yes Cp was perfect for us LAST YEAR. because we needed someone like that. But what better time than now, to find out whether beck or henne is the franchise when you are on stage 2 of rebuilding?

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 11, 2009 12:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't jump to early

I can’t believe everyone wants to bring someone new in already after one poor game. Penne allows us to hide a lot of weakness on our team and gets the best out of everyone on the team. We had an 11 win season last year and starting either Beck or Henne we would see a huge step backwards. We can say that his arm is better but if he can’t read the defense or doesn’t throw the ball away under pressure we could always get in huge trouble. You are playing with fire .. take a deep breath and relax. We have our starting QB and his name is Chad PENNINGTON

by markus_13 on Jan 11, 2009 4:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nope. I already said its not about the last game or last seasons performance

I for one am exuberant when thinking about how he played.

How can we take a huge step backwards by identifying our franchise qb? That doesn’t make sense. Nicky pointed out we dont have to trade him…fine..but i think next year we must go forward with either beck or henne or we are sacrificing one more year. Granted pennington may get us 1 extra win (not as much as he did last year)..but identifying that leader for years to come should be our goal next year…because we have a firm foundation and will have atleast 9 wins with another solid off-season.

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 11, 2009 4:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess what I am saying is that I don’t think we have that firm foundation in place yet other than maybe starting LT and RB … other than that there are questions of injury or just haven’t shown the talent yet. We are a good team and have good players .. not great.

I know you were calling for a new direction before the end but it helped out your bandwagon haha

We still have a very young team who is need of leaders … Penne and Porter are the main two … I don’t know how many times I have heard that come out of the players mouths in watching interviews or reading articles this season. I agree that it would be nice to Henne play because we all know he is talented but why rush? If we can get an extra win and make the playoffs because of that than yes the dolphins have to do that.

by markus_13 on Jan 11, 2009 5:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but the thing is i dont believe the drop off from pennington to beck/henne will be as big as it would be last year

now we not only have last years young players
but we are going to revamp again this off-season

so when is a better time to figure this out?

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 11, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why does everyone think we don't want CP because of 1 bad game

We don’ want CP because we are rebuilding.. Geez people, put it together. A 33 yr old QB on a rebuiding franchise, which is want we are, does not add up. Especially since we spent a 1st day pick on, what looks to be, a pretty good prospect.

I want the Dolphins to win, and I don’t care who is playing to help them win. When a guy throws 4 ints in 2 qtrs he is hurting my team and maybe needs to sit a series. Not 1 guy is above the team. NOT ONE.

-Neo Jan. 4 1009

by Neo on Jan 11, 2009 7:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rebuilding .. I thought thats what we were doing this season

wouldn’t it have been best just to stick Henne in there last season instead? I mean the Ravens and Falcons did it. We won because of Pennington and what he brought to the table. He changed the culture in that locker room .. what are you saying to the players .. sorry guys we are rebuilding. Henne does have a better arm but so does about 85% of the league compared to him. Why take steps back when you could take another step forward .. Henne will get his shot .. wouldn’t you want it when there are more pieces in place so he doesn’t have to do so much to win games?

by markus_13 on Jan 12, 2009 4:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great job.

I love that stat (saw it at the same site).

The Phinsider: SBN's Miami Dolphins blog

by Matty I on Jan 11, 2009 12:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry...

but I think we have the QB pipeline filled. With Penne, Henne, and Becky in the mix, (from the offensive side) it’s time to find ways to get separation for our RB’s…meaning any of our incumbent QBs will benefit from a strong O-line that can step up and fill the gap.

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'Any time you try to win everything, you must be willing to lose everything.'
Larry Csonka

by OntheGo on Jan 11, 2009 12:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree!!

"You are the people you hang out with"

by buckeyebill on Jan 11, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Curious Question that I have to Ask

Do you think it is because of his weak arm that there are no YAC ? .. I mean this allows DB’s to close quicker because the ball takes a longer time to get there .. therefore not allowing the WR the ability to make a move on the opponent and the fact he can’t lead our WR on a deep throw like the one on the flea flicker thrown to Ginn Jr. against the Jets.

by markus_13 on Jan 11, 2009 4:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't seem likely-

that would explain CP having a low percentage of YAC, but it would not explain his high AY/Attempt. That means that he is completing passes further down the field than all but 4 QBs in the league.

"They say statistics are for losers, but losers are usually the ones thinking that. . . . Everything we do is analyzed. Is that the bottom line? No. You can't analyze the heart of Tim Tebow." - Urban Meyer

by GatorPhan on Jan 11, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or- 5 QBs . . . forgot how to subtract for a second :-\

by GatorPhan on Jan 11, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Otay

Passing defenses:

NYJ – 29 (Twice)
Arizona – 22
NW – 11
SD – 31
Houston – 17
Baltimore – 2
Buffalo – 13 (Twice)
Denver – 26
Seattle – 32
Oakland – 10
STL – 19
SF – 20
KC – 28

So lets have a look at this:

Of the 16 game season the Dolphins played this year, 8 of those games were played against teams with the 20th or worse ranked plassing defenses in the NFL.

Only 1 game did he face a team in the top 5, Baltimore (2). Not only that, we only played 1other team the entire season that had a top 10 passing defense, the Oakland Raiders (10).

Hell, we played 4 of the 5 (32,31,29,28) worst passing defenses in the NFL. I would hope Mr. Pennigton would be able to put up numbers against those teams. Chances are we aren’t gonna play against those defenses in the same year for a long time.

Bottom line:

You can make numbers to say what you want. At the end of the day, after about 8-9 years in the NFL you know what a player has and can bring to the table. Mr. Pennington is a very good QB, who can get you TO the playoffs. BUT he can’t take you any FURTHER.

"I have nothing to declare except my genuis."

-Oscar Wilde

by Neo on Jan 11, 2009 9:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Btw

yea sometimes I just like to press peoples buttons. Its fun and it makes reading more entertaining.-)

"I have nothing to declare except my genuis."

-Oscar Wilde

by Neo on Jan 11, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Easy to push buttons online isnt it?

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 11, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just as easy in person

"I have nothing to declare except my genuis."

-Oscar Wilde

by Neo on Jan 11, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Come on guys!!

Easy with the qb after though ; )

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Jan 11, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

After 8 or 9 years you may think you know what you have-

or you may just know what the media stuffs down our throats. Numbers never lie. Now as I have stated before, I don’t necessarily want him back- I want the guy who wins the job. But to say he can’t take you to the playoffs but no further is just silly. With the way the Jets run their organization, no QB is taking them to the Super Bowl. Not Tom Brady, not Peyton Manning, not Chad Pennington. He took a 1-15 team to the playoffs. You can say we “rebuilt” the team, but no rebuild of that magnitude is done in 1 season, or even 2. The fact is we still have a patchwork O-line, a few #2 & #3 receivers at best, two RBs coming off of major injuries, our #1 TE was basically traded to us for a sack of potatoes b/c Dallas thought he was worthless, and a waiver wire FB.

If the regime chooses to start Henne, I’m sure he will be OK. Just remember though, right now everybody who is calling for his head is greatly underestimating his ability to read a defense, and set his players up in a position to succeed. We got beat in the playoffs because Baltimore has better athletes at key positions. Atlanta got tossed from the playoffs because the Arizona D had Matt Ryan figured out, and he couldn’t adjust. Just something to keep in mind.

by GatorPhan on Jan 11, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Professional QB

Pennington is a solid, very good professional QB. But he is not special. I think to be Superbowl contenders on a yearly basis, you need a special QB. Does anyone think that the Dolphins are in a better place right now to reach the Superbowl than the Falcons? While I liked the way Jake Long played this year and I think he will be a very good if not dominant left tackle in this league for a long time, I think in a couple of years the Dolphins will look back and regret not taking Matt Ryan with the first pick. He is special and will only get better. The Falcons will be playoff / Superbowl contenders every year he is their QB.

by ct1361 on Jan 11, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

????

Atlanta a SB contender every year?
I want some of that!!

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Jan 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, Maybe Not

There is a reason why teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and San Diego are always in the talk, preseason, to be Superbowl contenders. That is because they all have top notch, special QB’s. Ryan and the Falcons will be with them in a couple of years.

by ct1361 on Jan 11, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK?

If you say so!!
A lot of people were saying the same with Quinn, but hey! whatever!! There will be always nagger or nagging people. I will not nag, cause we NEEDED an anchor in the OL.

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Jan 11, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some great QBs sat a while before they got their chance

And I think if Penne is healthy he gives us the best chance to win right now (next season). And it gives time for Parcells and Ireland and Sparano to put together an offense that will take care of Henne when he gets his chance. Yes, the future is tomorrow, but when it comes to Chad Pennington, I don’t think “today” is over yet. I jdo hope next year Henne gets to see some action.

Take care of the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves.

by SunDolphin on Jan 11, 2009 10:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Has everybody forgot this is a team game?

Measurables, stats, and what if we put the future in don’t mean much to me. The Best Player Plays is my motto, and apparently Sparano’s as well. How important is 9 years of being blitzed? How important is the team believing in you as a leader? Who do you think the players want? It is not their choice, that is for the coach to decide.

Wins are what matters. Would you prefer a manager or a CEO right out of college of someone that has a degree and some experience. Why do you think companies hire from within. Football is no different. I think we all agree that Henne is the future. If he sits and learns reads, defense tendencies, and leadership for 2 of 3 years he will he more ready and will be chomping at the bit.

I don’t want a young QB to go out their before the trifecta has finished the o-line, defense, and not having a #1 receiver. Chad Pennington will be a great backup/coach in 2010 when Henne is ready. Remember we still need to fill some holes to be a complete team. If we have that, Henne will light it up. Mark my words, Sparano will put the best QB in next year, and it will be Pennington. Be patient guys, we will get our young guy in there

by nmphinfan on Jan 11, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patiens! my fellow padawand Dolphins fans! ; )

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Jan 11, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

please use the eye test

ok – here’s what i think of the meaning of your yards stats…

lets go back to the houston game….

Penne throws the flee flicker to Cobbs off the Wildcat (IIRC – it was about a sixty?? yard TD pass) the ball traveled ~ 25 yards in the air if you rewatch it and cobbs ran the other 40… the arc of the pass made it look like about a 60 yard pass…

Late (less than 2 mins) in the game houston has 4th and 17? (15-18 yard range anyways) Schaub throws a lazer to A Johnson who is tackled immediately… the pass looked like something that was about an 8 yard slant throw… yet it was a 22 yard pass/pickup…

don’t have to see anymore than that… penne has to throw a friggin hail mary to get the ball 25 yards down the field. no team with a QB like that will ever beat 3 or 4 straight playoff teams…. there are throws a QB HAS to make against playoff defenses that penne is incapable of making, and if this is about winning the super bowl it’s time to FINALLY address the QB situation and create some stability by finding a franchise QB for this team.

I’m done with caretakers.

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 11, 2009 10:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You just make stuff up don't you?

Wildcat Reverse Pass to Cobbs:

Pennington throws from his own 40. Cobbs catches it at the Houston 20. 40 yards in the air. Cobbs runs 20 yards after the catch. We all know that you hate Pennington and think he has a wet noodle for an arm, but come with something correct.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 11, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amen Brotha-

just like they tell pilots, trust your instruments not your eyes. I have no agenda defending one or the other- I just wrote a post about how I think Henne will do fine.

But facts are facts- he gains more yardage per attempt then all but 5 QBs in the league. If you want to argue that he doesn’t make 40 yard throws down the field- well who does? Even for the best QBs those are jump balls at best unless its just completely blown coverage. I’ll take Pennington’s sure 5 yards a shot any day over a guy who hits the occasional bomb but then throws a bunch of incompletions.

Like I said, I have no agenda- I want the best QB for this Phins. Every Jets fan in existence started to take Pennington for granted and begged for Kellen Clemmens, and then crapped them selves when they got Farve. “Pennington is limiting our offense!”, they all said. “Game Manager!” they cried. How did that work out for them again?

I say if he wins the battle, appreciate what you have. I’m personally glad we have a regime that is smart enough to trust themselves, and don’t cave in to media and fan pressure when they are really the only ones who know if Pennington or someone else is best for the team. Fact is, nobody here has seen Henne in a live game. And nobody really liked what they saw from Beck when he got his shot (and yes I know our O-line sucked, our receivers sucked, etc. etc. Well guess what- they still do!).

All I can say is be careful what you wish for, or you might end up no better than a Jets fan.

by GatorPhan on Jan 12, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't agree more

I really have to start reading other ppls posts before I start typing hahaha

by markus_13 on Jan 12, 2009 4:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The eye test

how about the TD toss to Ginn Jr v. the Jets .. it was 30 or so out in the air and it was a beauty

by markus_13 on Jan 12, 2009 4:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

W NY = JETS FAN

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow...

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 12, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lil known fact..

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

lets see … the line is the 47 and cobbs catches it on the 23… ok it’s a 30 yarder but that was a couple months ago and i did it off the top of my head.

now – you on the otherhand should know you count stats for the line not from where the QB is when he throws…
or are you just making things up???

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 11, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

try again

25 yards in the air if you rewatch it and cobbs ran the other 40

40 yards in the air, not from the LOS. Don’t backpeddle now.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 12, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

W NY = JETS FAN

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

first off

you have to use NFL stats…. and they count passing distance from the line… and i’m pretty sure you know that…
and it’s a 63 yard pass in the books…

2nd if you check the official play listing its the 23, where cobbs is when he catches the ball…

but all of that is moot…. and a distraction to my point that there is a qualitative differance in the QB’s in that game…
penne has to heave a 30 yard pass and Schaub zing’s one on a rope that goes 23…

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 12, 2009 1:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

U MAKE ME SICK

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

are you really gonna start this crap again.

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
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by finsxfactor on Jan 12, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

naw....no point

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

first off

you’re point was “in the air.” It traveled roughly 40 yards in the air. I understand you don’t want Pennington, but don’t let your bias cloud statistical evidence and facts. You can make a good enough argument without resorting to “noodle arm” and “can’t throw 20 yards.”

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 12, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PER W NY

my choice for FA signing will be delhomme

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HUH?!

"Worst 2 First"...Your 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins

by Rzayo24 on Jan 12, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this is the best joke of the year

let your bias cloud statistical evidence and facts.

lets see, I use NFL standards for passing stats and ’my bias is clouding statistical evidence… now I know you have a man crush, boardering on stalker status, for the old noodle, but who has the bias here? the guy who tells you the NFL says the ball went 30 and 23 YAC to cobbs or the the cheerleader saying you have to count where the penne threw from???

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 14, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

the ball traveled ~ 25 yards in the air if you rewatch it and cobbs ran the other 40

who has the bias? The guy who watched the tape and saw the ball travel 40 yards in the air? or the guy making up numbers as he goes?

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 14, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no you are mooting.. i agree pennington shouldnt start next year but

if you watching film

you take from where qb threw the ball

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
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by finsxfactor on Jan 14, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

shudder

so let me get this straight – the NFL for it’s entire history has been keeping its stats wrong?

so if I have this straight you and your cheerleader friend are saying if the line is at the 20 and the qb does at 7 step drop (to the 13) and throws the ball to the 25… it’s really not a 5 yard pass but a 12 yard one?

and I must then assume in your stat world if the RB takes the ball 5 yards deep and picks goes 1 yard past the line it’s really a 6 yard run….

I am starting to understand all those wacky stat numbers you all where putting up on matty’s predicition board before the season….

must be nice living in your worlds.

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 14, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no im saying you cant argue arm strength purely on los to cobb. gotta go with the whole pennington to cobb.

pennington —> dolphins 40
cobb → texans 20

do the math….or actually watch the play

50 – 40 = 10
50 – 20 = 30

10 + 30 = 40 yard’s in air

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
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by finsxfactor on Jan 14, 2009 2:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

are you really

saying that NFL stats are incorrect? ….

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 14, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's in the NFL books at

a 53 yard TD pass – it’s on penne’s & cobb’s page as a 53 yarder and cobbs has 23 yards RAC….

so now we are suppose to magically add 10 or 20 or 30 yards because Penne threw the ball, not at the line, but imagine this from behind it (shudder the genious coaches who came up with that idea)

anyways – i’m done you and your cheerleader friend can ignore the fact that the ball had a hang time greater than the punter averages and call it a 120 yard pass… and continue to defy logic.

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 14, 2009 2:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or you could actually watch the clip and see that if you are arguing about penningtons arm. you have to start where pennington is...

nobody but you is pulling in the nfl stats ok. so calm down buddy

the arguement was noodle arm and all that crap. well watch the goddamn play and you could see the ball traveled more than 20 yards and did not have a hand time of a punter

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
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by finsxfactor on Jan 14, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't even bother anymore

he’s never wrong. Pennington can’t throw it further than 20 yards. He only threw for 3500+ yards with one of the lowest percentages of yards-after-catch in the league. He might as well use a slingshot.

This guy is ridiculous.

"Are we doing this? Is this happening?"

by Little Nicky 21 on Jan 14, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and hes not even backing up his arguement.. and he's flip flopping more than john kerry

(yep that was me with a political SLAP!)

Enough is enough...we need Natalya back. I believe in John Beck and that LCFF is the man.
Official Leader of the Draft Kenny Britt Bandwagon

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

Check it out.

Front Paged - Class of 08.

by finsxfactor on Jan 14, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

man, this debate is really really old already

If Pennington starts for the next few years, start building a 2001 Ravens clone. One chock full of defense and a “don’t lose the game” offense. If Henne starts…..you build a Pittsburgh style team…..one that has balance on both sides of the ball, and can hit the deep ball, and threaten opposing defenses. Plus, having the talent on defense to stop other teams. You have to decide what path you want to take. Parcells and Co. will. And I can almost say with all of my Dolphin loving breath, it will be balance. Why on earth would you build your “NEW” team around an older, fixed the patch, limited QB? It makes no sense. And in the long term, we’d kill what we’ve started.

Miami Dolphins 2008 AFC East Divison Champions

by HuskerDolphin on Jan 12, 2009 1:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really Old Already

I agree .. this is already pissing me off and its only been a week haha Yes I understand what everyone is saying about his arm but look what that did for the Jets in terms of trying for a different QB .. both times .. where they that much better without him? they tired the young QB with Kellen Clemons and an older one with Favre. I don’t see the harm in starting off with Pennington for the next season .. Henne is young and sitting back and watching can’t hurt his progress

If Coach says Pennington is his starter I think that was for a reason … to keep everyone who questions his arm strength quite this offseason. So listen to the Coach .. Pennington will be the starter

by markus_13 on Jan 12, 2009 4:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have to admit arguing about stats for how long the ball is in the air is funny to me. I care about one thing .. Wins and Loses … and right now I want to Win. Pennington did that this season and yes the last lose sucked but Baltimore put McNabb on the bench and has made others look silly too

by markus_13 on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs