I recently stumbled across a very interesting new stat at Advanced NFL NFL Stats (via Smart Football – Analysis and Strategy by Chris) that really struck a chord with me due to our QB conversation, and all of the people calling for Chad Henne to replace Chad Pennington due to the fact that he cannot get the ball down the field. It is a concept I am surprised was not the original way to do things in the first place. It addresses a question many people have probably asked themselves: Why in the world does a quarterback get credit for a 60 yard pass if he just dumps it to his RB, and the RB makes an amazing play to get up the field?
Granted, a smart pass from a QB can lead a receiver to be able to create the YAC- but ignoring the difference between yards actually thrown in the air, and YAC can lead to some misleading numbers. The article demonstrates the case of 2 QBs. Both QBs had just over 7 yards per completion, and both had a stellar QB rating of 95. One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Tavares Jackson. Obviously there was something wrong here. Air Yards aim to bring this disparity from the normal stats to the surface. Air Yards, simply put, measure the distance the ball actually traveled in the air from the line of scrimmage to the receiver.
What really interested me though was when I looked at the "Air Yards" rankings A-NFL-S had compiled. If you had to guess which QBs had the most "Air Yards" in the NFL, who do you think it would be? Probably some rocket armed QB, like Brett Farve. Nope. Maybe it was Drew Brees, who nearly eclipsed Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record? Think again. Surely the Dolphins own "noodle armed" QB Chad Pennington didn’t come near the top of the list right? All he does is dump it off and let our shifty receivers get up the field for him right?
Surprisingly, he was the #5 QB in the league in gaining "Air Yards" behind Jake DelHomme, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. He is just ahead of Sage Rosenfels, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees to round out the top ten. Pretty spectacular.
Of Chad Pennington’s 3,653 passing yards, 1,546 were yards gained after the catch. That means 2,107 yards were all CP and his arm. Given his 476 (regular season) attempts, that means he gained about 4.43 Air Yards per attempt. If the QBs were rated by that stat, he would fall one spot to 6th. The percentage of his yards after catch compared to total yards is 42.3%- which ranks him the #10 QB for AY by percentage. Looks like no matter how you slice it, Chad threw the ball further threw the air than all but a hand full of QBs, and really did not receive that much help from his receivers.
For a comparison to the "traditional stats"- Chad Pennington was the #9 QB in passing yards- behind Brees, Warner, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Cassel. Only Rivers, and Rodgers beat him in Air Yards.
The biggest disparity in stats is with Matt Cassel. In fact, Matt Cassel was the THIRTY SEVENTH ranked QB in AY. He is DEAD LAST in percentage of yards gained after the catch (57% of his 3,693 yards were gained after the catch).
Other QBs joining him at the bottom of the list: JT O’Sullivan, Jason Campbell, Brett the Jet Favre, JP Losman, and Seneca Wallace. Not exactly great company there. The QBs with the lowest AY in ’07 included Brodie Croyle, Joey Harrington, Brett Farve, JP Losman, and our own Cleo Lemon. The "class of ‘06" has such stars as Brett Farve, Mark Brunell, David Carr, and Alex Smith.
Now this doesn’t prove anything, but I’d say it gives us at least a hint that the Patriots have a brilliant system, and furthermore, that Matt Cassel sucks- and will probably be terrible with the next team that picks him up.
And as you could see, the man the Jets dumped Chad for was at the bottom of the list for the past 3 years. For all the talk of opening up the field, his cannon arm, etc- this is how he did this year: 1,779 of his 3,472 yards were after the catch- which equates to 3.2 AY/Attempt, or 51% of his total passing yardage. So how did that work for you? Maybe Laverneus Coles wasn’t just being spiteful when he said the ball machine threw a harder pass.
So how many of you out there would have guessed Chad Pennington was in the top 10 for every single category that measures how far the ball actually travels from the line of scrimmage, and the #5 overall? I’d say old "noodle arm" has acquitted himself pretty well. Maybe we have a stronger case for getting that big time #1 receiver than I thought. . .
Check out the full chart- as per Advanced NFL Statistics below (with a few added columns- see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html for the original):
Rank | QB | Total Yards | YAC | Air Yards | YAC % | Air Yards % | Air Yards/Attempt |
1 | Jake Delhomme | 3288 | 1269 | 2019 | 38.59% | 61.41% | 4.9 |
2 | Matt Ryan | 3440 | 1404 | 2036 | 40.81% | 59.19% | 4.7 |
3 | Phillip Rivers | 4009 | 1840 | 2169 | 45.90% | 54.10% | 4.5 |
4 | Aaron Rodgers | 4038 | 1652 | 2386 | 40.91% | 59.09% | 4.5 |
5 | Chad Pennington | 3653 | 1546 | 2107 | 42.32% | 57.68% | 4.4 |
6 | Sage Rosenfels | 1431 | 664 | 767 | 46.40% | 53.60% | 4.4 |
7 | Jay Cutler | 4526 | 1881 | 2645 | 41.56% | 58.44% | 4.3 |
8 | Peyton Manning | 4002 | 1627 | 2375 | 40.65% | 59.35% | 4.3 |
9 | Eli Manning | 3238 | 1220 | 2018 | 37.68% | 62.32% | 4.2 |
10 | Drew Brees | 5069 | 2398 | 2671 | 47.31% | 52.69% | 4.2 |
11 | Tony Romo | 3448 | 1578 | 1870 | 45.77% | 54.23% | 4.2 |
12 | Matt Schaub | 3043 | 1470 | 1573 | 48.31% | 51.69% | 4.1 |
13 | Ben Roethlisberger | 3301 | 1368 | 1933 | 41.44% | 58.56% | 4.1 |
14 | Kurt Warner | 4583 | 2173 | 2410 | 47.41% | 52.59% | 4.0 |
15 | Shaun Hill | 2046 | 895 | 1151 | 43.74% | 56.26% | 4.0 |
16 | David Garrard | 3620 | 1494 | 2126 | 41.27% | 58.73% | 4.0 |
17 | Jeff Garcia | 2712 | 1248 | 1464 | 46.02% | 53.98% | 3.9 |
18 | Trent Edwards | 2699 | 1266 | 1433 | 46.91% | 53.09% | 3.8 |
19 | Dan Orlovsky | 1616 | 652 | 964 | 40.35% | 59.65% | 3.8 |
20 | Gus Frerotte | 2157 | 1023 | 1134 | 47.43% | 52.57% | 3.8 |
21 | Tavares Jackson | 1056 | 502 | 554 | 47.54% | 52.46% | 3.8 |
22 | Donovan McNabb | 3916 | 1805 | 2111 | 46.09% | 53.91% | 3.7 |
23 | Matt hasselbeck | 1216 | 451 | 765 | 37.09% | 62.91% | 3.7 |
24 | J.T. O'Sullivan | 1678 | 887 | 791 | 52.86% | 47.14% | 3.7 |
25 | Joe Flacco | 2971 | 1433 | 1538 | 48.23% | 51.77% | 3.6 |
26 | Tyler Thigpen | 2608 | 1101 | 1507 | 42.22% | 57.78% | 3.6 |
27 | JaMarcus Russell | 2423 | 1143 | 1280 | 47.17% | 52.83% | 3.6 |
28 | Kerry Collins | 2676 | 1292 | 1384 | 48.28% | 51.72% | 3.5 |
29 | Kyle Orton | 2972 | 1450 | 1522 | 48.79% | 51.21% | 3.3 |
30 | Brett Favre | 3472 | 1779 | 1693 | 51.24% | 48.76% | 3.3 |
31 | Brady Quinn | 518 | 230 | 288 | 44.40% | 55.60% | 3.2 |
32 | Seneca Wallace | 1532 | 755 | 777 | 49.28% | 50.72% | 3.2 |
33 | Brian Griese | 1073 | 488 | 585 | 45.48% | 54.52% | 3.2 |
34 | Derek Anderon | 1615 | 724 | 891 | 44.83% | 55.17% | 3.1 |
35 | Marc Bulger | 2720 | 1336 | 1384 | 49.12% | 50.88% | 3.1 |
36 | Jason Campbell | 3245 | 1686 | 1559 | 51.96% | 48.04% | 3.1 |
37 | Matt Cassell | 3693 | 2116 | 1577 | 57.30% | 42.70% | 3.1 |
38 | Carson Palmer | 731 | 358 | 373 | 48.97% | 51.03% | 2.9 |
39 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1905 | 848 | 1057 | 44.51% | 55.49% | 2.8 |
40 | J.P. Losman | 584 | 294 | 290 | 50.34% | 49.66% | 2.8 |