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Talking Dolphins with a "Football Outsider"

So earlier in the week, I was reading an ESPN.com chat transcript.  One of the guys who were fielding questions from readers was Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders, the best NFL stats site in the world.  And for those who don't know, Football Outsiders are the people who bring you the best-selling pro football book, Pro Football Prospectus.

So in this chat, a question is posed to Barnwell about Ronnie Brown:

andrew, new york: Being a huge dolphins fan, I really like Ronnie Brown and think he can easily be a top 5 running back in this league when on the field. What are your thoughts?

SportsNation Football Outsiders Bill Barnwell: A healthy Ronnie Brown on the Vikings would win NFL MVP.

Of course, as soon as I read that, I just had to contact Bill myself.  So that's what I did.  I posed 3 questions for the busy Barnwell.  Below are the questions and his responses:

I saw that you said in an ESPN.com chat that a healthy Ronnie Brown would win the MVP award if he was on a team like the Vikings.  What do you like most about Ronnie and do you think he'll be able to reach his full potential with this new Miami Dolphins regime running things?

Barnwell: I like Ronnie's burst into the hole -- I described him in a radio interview as Marion Barber-esque, but the difference between him and Barber is that Brown has the elite speed that Barber lacks. He's simply really impressive. The biggest concern isn't the regime, it's for Brown to stay healthy. No regime is really going to have a huge impact on that.

What are your thoughts on Miami's young, but talented offensive line?  Do you think this unit, bookended by Jake Long and Vernon Carey, could become a dominant unit over the next couple of years?

Barnwell: I'm not thrilled with Vernon Carey's work, and I think at this point, Jake Long's a right tackle playing left tackle. My favorite lineman on the team is Samson Satele, who I think has the opportunity to have a Kevin Mawae-type career. That's pretty high praise.

One of the hot topics in Miami is the growth and development of Ted Ginn.  I still don't think he's being used correctly.  What do you think?  Can he become a legitimate #1 receiver in time?  Or is he destined to become another one of Miami's failed picks by previous regimes?

Barnwell: I don't see it. This is a guy who wasn't even really a polished enough receiver to play well in college; he's got the ability to be a great return man, and maybe a downfield target who can run go routes and create space, but he's not going to end up being a #1 guy.

Interesting stuff.  A big thanks to Bill for helping us out.

Feel free to discuss below...

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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What he said about the OL

actually surprised me, since I’ve always liked Carey and Long has been good. The fact that Satele is his favorite so far this year is good news, because it means he’s impressing people who actually watch and analyze football for a living. Hopefully our OL can be on Minnesota’s level in the next couple years, and then Ronnie can win that MVP he talked about.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Sep 26, 2008 12:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah...

He’s SUPER critical, that’s cool though. We will see what happens with Ted Ginn. Either they work him back him in some interesting ways and get him some kick returns or I’m afraid we may see him going to another team.
Interesting read, thanks Matty

by phranchise on Sep 26, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally Matty, I think you are more knowledgeable about the Fins

than 99% or the sports rag writers. I would rely on your opinion before this guy’s, although he might be right about Ginn. I don’t think he is telling you anything about Ronnie that you didn’t already know, and I don’t necessarily agree with him about our line.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Sep 26, 2008 1:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting comment on Vernon Carey considering...

…its his own site’s stats that had VC ranked as one of the top LT’s in the game last year. And the previous year when VC was at RT, those same stats showed there too. And even one more, last year’s stats for rushing up the middle had the Dolphins in the middle of the pack. So there’s no statistical analysis going into his opinions.

“I’m not thrilled with Vernon Carey’s work”,

Again, his opinion differs from the stats from last year on VC.

“and I think at this point, Jake Long’s a right tackle playing left tackle.”

And this was my argument all along for NOT drafting Long #1, and going for Matt Ryan instead. But that is water under the bridge.

I just find it interesting that he is personal opinions, which one has to assume these are, go against what the stats on his site show.

by dab415217 on Sep 26, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Long has looked solid to me at LT

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Sep 26, 2008 10:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments on OL, and Ted Ginn

I think it’s too early to tell on Ted Ginn. Usually you give new receivers about three years and see if they ‘get it’. Ginn is only in his second season on a bad football team.

I don’t know much about Vernon Carey’s play, but I really think Jake Long will make it and be a dominate tackle in this league. The left tackle spot is usually more difficult to play, but he’ll rise to the challenge with time.

Rondogg
www.nflfanswhocare.com

by rondogg on Sep 26, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i would usually agree with you on ginn...

but he’s never been a top-flight WR at any level. i can see him settling into kind of randle-el like career, but i am not sure he has the stuff to be a clear cut #1.

The Jayfiss Report ...one fan's rants

by NumberSeven on Sep 26, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm impressed

Matty!!!! I was sure you were going to throw a Beck Question out there and you didn’t…Congrats……..lol

by jvw on Sep 26, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

so what yer saying is he 'ducked' the issue....

[damn i better leave im gonna end up in trouble at this rate]

by Krab on Sep 26, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FO

I’m a big fan of FO, and I am familiar with Bill’s work, so when I read the last 2 questions I went oh-oh. They have a bit of an anti Dolphin bias in general, and Bill most of all. I remember only 2 years ago he claimed Chris Chambers was the worst receiver in football. With a straight face. And the Ginn jokes have just died down a bit in the last couple of months, but they all have a terrible opinion of him. Still, the truth is that the Dolphins are one of the teams they watch the least, so most of it is, like I said, just a bias.

by icerob on Sep 27, 2008 9:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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