The Dolphins Will Run The Ball Successfully - With Stats
This is selection from something I wrote elsewhere, but thought would add to the community here. If any of this refers to something previous it is because it belongs to a longer article.
After two games shaping up the way they did, I was pretty down on the line and the performance of the backs. Then I remembered something and decided to do a little research.
I wanted to shed light on some confusion over the Dolphins running game. So here it goes:
So far this season...
Ronnie Brown has carried the ball 17 times for 48 yards. Earning him a 2.8 yard average.
Ricky Williams has carried the ball 21 times for 52 yards. Earning him a 2.5 yard average.
Ronnie has carried the ball more times than Ricky in the 3rd and fourth quarters. Both of these guys are big backs that need to wear down defenses to start getting longer runs.
Ricky's numbers look bad right now. I couldn't possibly argue against that idea. The bottom line is that Ronnie isn't setting the world on fire either. So that leads me to the newspapermen and radio hosts (790 The Ticket's Sid Rosenberg, I am looking at you). These stalwarts of suspect statistical awareness have pronounced that the running game will be either completely lost this year or that switching the roles will solve the problem.
So, let's look at the Dolphins overall situation before we go off the deep end and join them.
Maurice Jones-Drew has carried the ball 12 times this year for 30 yards in his first two games. Good for a 2.5 yard average. That includes a 22 yard run.
Fred Taylor has carried the ball 23 times for 67 yards. That's a 2.9 yard average.
Larry Johnson has carried the ball 34 times for 96 yards. That's only a 2.8 yard average and he too has a 22 yard run in there.
All of them have logged two games. Their teams need a solid rushing attack to win and both teams have, like the Dolphins, lost their first two games.
None of them are impressing, but does anyone actually think that Maurice Jones-Drew will average 2.5 yards a carry this year? I hope not.
So the season has started slowly for some running backs. So why is it in the case of Ricky and Ronnie that it is less an issue of a slow start and more of a possible loss of ability. It's only natural, I guess. Ronnie Brown is coming off knee surgery and Ricky is not a spring chicken and, despite his physical gifts seeming undiminished, he may have lost a step.
There is also the chance that it is just a slow start. What if?
There is an aspect to this discourse that casts the fans and media's responses to early failure in a somewhat poor light.
The issue is looking at the ball carriers over their careers.
In 2005, when Ricky was reinstated he carried the ball 5 times for 8 yards in his first game. He followed up that break out day with a 6 carries/ -1 yard performance. Negative one yard. He finished the season with a 4.4 yard average, multiple hundred yard games and was a key component in that team's 6 game winning streak that closed out the season.
Ricky's prior stats from 2002 and 2003 are ridiculously impressive. In 2002 he was averaging over 5.5 yards per carry after two games and over 4 yards per carry in 2003. So he might not be fully explained here.
How about Ronnie Brown? If this guy is consistent at something it is certainly that he starts slow. Fantasy vultures ought to memorize these numbers.
Ronnie Brown in 2005: Carried the ball 22 times for 57 yards in the first game. That's a 2.6 yard average. He followed that up with a breakout 12 carry/35 yard masterpiece. Lifting his first two game average to 2.75 yards per carry.
Ronnie Brown in 2006: Carried the ball 15 times week one. He got 30 yards. I won't do the math for you on that one. The next weekend he had a respectable game. Carrying the ball 15 times for 70 yards. Good for a very healthy 4.7 yard average. Still, he averaged 3.33 yards per carry over the first two games.
Ronnie Brown in 2007: Game 1 against Washington Brown carried the ball 11 times for 32 yards. That's a 2.9 yards per carry average. The following game was a much improved 11 carries for 33 yards. Yes, 11 multiplied by 3 is 33.
My point here is that you can't write off players or a whole team (even a team with as many struggles as the Dolphins) by week 3. Yes, they're going north this week to face the New England Patriots. Yes they just got blown out by the Cardinals. No, Ronnie and Ricky won't continue to play poorly. No, I'm not crazy (hopefully) and yes, the numbers tend not to lie.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a breakout game for one of the two running backs. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Dolphins lose anyway. They've been pretty good at finding ways to do that despite breakout performances at the running back position.
This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.
0 recs |
14 comments
Comments
Matty I, Stats Guy
You love you some of them stats, don’t you.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on Sep 20, 2008 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That was a nice little write up
Im glad some people don’t give up so fast. It is true, both our premier backs tend to take time to get into their groove and hit their stride. Ricky is a specimen at the RB position, at least he was back in 03. He just obliterated teams and their hopes of winning. If you guys havent been able to tell yet… I absolutely love Ronnie’s style, determination, skills, and heart. He is my favorite player on the offense for good reason. He is a beast and I really would love for the both of them to hit their groove this week vs the pats. Bring Matt Cassel back down to earth (pun intended for his B**** A**)
by DaMiamiDolphinz on Sep 20, 2008 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
or ...
the NY JETS were tied for 6th worst ypc last year at 3.8… and no team is going to be effective running the ball with a weak armed qb… when they can pack 8-9-10-11-12 or 13(sometimes it seems like it anyways) guys in the box…
by W NY Fins Fan on Sep 20, 2008 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
I still think they’ll get it going.
You are absolutely right about other teams stacking the box. The play action is so cheesy when you can’t beat anyone deep.
Safeties just keep rolling up on the running game.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on Sep 21, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, accurate commentating
this game just proved him on the money.
11
y not if im wrong who will remember
by qbinfin on Apr 27, 2008 3:27 PM PDT
by DolfinPhan on Sep 21, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nostradumbass?
No, this guy knows what he’s talking about! What a call! And backed it up with stats. Impressive.
Football isn't a matter of life and death - it's far more important than that.
by Agumen on Sep 21, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually, now that I've seen the 'stache, I don't know how I could have doubted this post.
Football isn't a matter of life and death - it's far more important than that.
by Agumen on Sep 21, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phinisher.....good job!
Great prediction! Now……..can you give me 6 numbers in the the upcoming lottery? lol
"Not the victory but the action; Not the goal but the game; In the deed the glory."
by HuskerDolphin on Sep 21, 2008 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks fellas
Got to love them running a spread, almost Arkansasesque “Wild Hogs” offense.
I mean… Why not? You best two players on offense are you running backs. So make the defense account for them both at once. Genius.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on Sep 21, 2008 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Arkansasesque
holy crap what a word.. ESPN spelling bee-type word. What’s the pronounciation on that one??
On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz
by Little Nicky 21 on Sep 21, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its all about
saying it real casual, like you’ve heard it before.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on Sep 21, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
slip it into conversation like it’s no big deal right?
On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz
by Little Nicky 21 on Sep 21, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's an example:
Guy 1: Sometimes when I’m in Tennessee I get the feeling that some of the football fans are Arkansasesque.
Guy 2: Did you just say Arkansasesque?
Guy 1: Yes. But it’s pronounced Arkansasesque…
That should clear it up for you.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on Sep 22, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz
by Little Nicky 21 on Sep 22, 2008 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 















