Could Dolphins be better than Redskins in '08?
by Matty I
on Jul 22, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
in News
Something that many Dolphin fans have thought about since the Jason Taylor trade is what if Miami turned out to be better than Washington. How would Taylor feel if the Dolphins finished the season with a better record than his new team?
Seem outlandish? Not according to former NFL executive and current SI.com columnist Michael Lombardi. Lombardi writes in his blog that he thinks the Dolphins will actually be better than the Redskins in 2008. Here's an excerpt from his article:
First, the Fins will be much better coached then a year ago. That's not a knock on Cam Cameron and the prior staff in Miami. It's just that, when things went bad it was hard to turn the tide. Replacing Nick Saban was tough and when you bring in someone who takes the opposite of his approach, it takes time. Unfortunately, time was not on Cameron's side last season. Players this year will be forced to improve, and as Churchill once said, "Fear does the work of Reason." Many Miami players will fear losing their jobs and they will play with all the passion and pride they can muster. Add the fact that in 2007, they were 0-6 in games decided by three points or less. It isn't like they were getting killed and blown out in those games. They were very close to winning. Football is a game of details and this year the Dolphins will have all the details better covered...
...So call me crazy, but I think the Fins win more then the Skins.
Here's all I'll say because I don't want to be called too much of a "homer." But football is the only sport, in my opinion, where good coaching alone can single handedly be responsible for 2 or 3 wins per season. Considering the Dolphins lost 6 games by 3 points last year, it's not too far of a stretch to imagine the Dolphins would win 7 or 8 games in 2008.
Meanwhile, the Redskins are in a very tough division. They have to battle with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles 2 times each year. If you consider that the Giants and Patriots cancel each other out, the remaining 2 teams in the NFC East are far better than the 2 teams in the AFC East. And if you examine each team's non-divisional games, neither team has a particularly easy schedule. But the Dolphins play the NFC West while the Redskins have to play the AFC North. In my opinion, the AFC North is far better than the NFC West.
And the Redskins really aren't that much better off a QB, either. Sure, Jason Campbell has more experience than John Beck. But Campbell's stat line in 2007 of 12 TDs, 11 ints, 60% completion, 8 fumbles lost, and a 77.6 rating isn't really all that much better than Beck's rookie stat line of 1 TD, 3 ints, 56%, 5 fumbles lost, and 62 rating. And if you compare Campbell's performance last year to McCown's, you'd see that Campbell really didn't outplay McCown that much despite having a better team around him.
So while I don't think it's likely that the Dolphins could be a better team than the Redskins in 2008, it isn't a total reach to consider it a possibility.
So what do you think? Is Lombardi going to be proven right? Will the Dolphins be better than the Skins?
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I don't want to get my hopes up...
but i think the fins could very well go over .500 this year, considering everything we have now is an improvement from last year’s injury fest. and seeing the redskins overall, they weren’t a GREAT team last year, they had some fire in them, but nothing that made them contenders, and with JT i don’t think it puts them any closer, it doesn’t hurt their chances, but i wouldn’t pick the redskins in even the top 10 teams I think would make it to the Big Game this year. I certainly hope the Dolphins are better than the “insensitively-named-team”, but judging by last years slew of injuries, I wouldn’t even want to guess.
(sorry if this was butchered and mildly incoherent, i’m at work)
by chrislucas on Jul 22, 2008 4:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Wouldn't it be ironic if the Redskins went 1-15 this year?
They lost Shaun Taylor and played on adrenaline and emotion at the end of the season,
but they were struggling up until that point.
Taylor is certainly an upgrade to Phillip Daniels, but there is the rust factor and if that plantar fasciatis starts acting up…
by DolphDallas on Jul 22, 2008 4:13 PM EDT 0 recs
can i hit that???
what are you guys smoking?? We stink right now, thats reality it sucks but it is what it is..Matty you know i luv ya but the Beck Cambell stats are not even close 77.6 to 62 QB ratings are Mario to Feidler type comparisons, im just playing but Cambell will be a star.
Does anybody know any good QB’s coming out early to mid 2nd rd in 09’ He will be what the fins have been looking for since Dan the Man. he will be a sleeper all the other teams let pass, some teams will even let him pass twice;
okay i feel better now.. not really but I hate BP always have always will…
What happend to the Killer BEEs
by FinfanT on Jul 22, 2008 4:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Cambell
Is still Kool Aid. He has tons to prove.
Clinton Portis isn’t a spring chicken either.
The Eagles had an awesome draft and signed Asante Samuel. They will be second only to the Cowboys, which by the way are ridiculously stacked.
www.thephinisher.com
by The Phinisher on
Jul 22, 2008 7:42 PM EDT
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What games are you watching?
“And if you compare Campbell’s performance last year to McCown’s, you’d see that Campbell really didn’t outplay McCown that much despite having a better team around him.”
Please explain to me how you are arriving at that opinion, because it makes absolutely no sense. McCown was one of the worst QBs in the league last season, while Campbell was a top 25 passer. Yes, both players threw 11 INTs and had 11 fumbles, but Campbell played 13 games while McCown only played 9. It’s not enough to look at conventional counting stats and just throw them up for comparison.
Take a look at the rate stats and advanced metrics and you’ll get a much better idea of how these guys played. McCown threw 5.8% of his passes for INTs (a grossly high number) while Campbell threw only 2.6% of his passes for INTs.
Campbell’s Adjusted Sack Rate was 4.7%. McCown’s was 6.9%. The league average over the past three seasons is 6.8%.
Campbell’s Net Yards per Pass was 6.0 (Ranking him 25 overall); McCown’s was 5.2 ranking him 40 overall.
Cambell’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (aka his value per play over an average QB) was 4.4% (Ranked 22). McCown’s was an absolutely atrocious -29.1% (ranking him 48th out of 51 eligible QBs). A replacement level QB is considered to have a DVOA of -12.5%. McCown played substantially worse than the average replacement QB last season.
Campbell’s Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (value of QB performance compared to replacement level translated in yardage) was 433 (Ranked 17). McCown’s was -236 (Ranked 48).
Go to Football Outsiders if you want to learn more about those stats.
But please don’t just throw out some conventional counting stats without looking at the whole picture. Josh McCown for the most part, has been a horrible QB throughout his career. Jason Campbell, on the other hand, has been well above average in his two seasons.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on Jul 22, 2008 5:03 PM EDT 0 recs
lol
Why is everyone getting so fired up? I’m just trying to “stir the pot” a little.
The best part is how this piece I wrote is being received on Redskin message boards! lol
Oh…and Lombardi is the one who started this by saying the Dolphins will be better than the Skins. I’m just trying to figure out how he got to that conclusion.
by Matty I on
Jul 22, 2008 11:08 PM EDT
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Here's one:
by Matty I on
Jul 23, 2008 1:46 PM EDT
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hahaha, damn son, you really did a number on those poor dress wearing, hog nose, Indian haters. football fires up the stoves!
by chrislucas on
Jul 23, 2008 11:45 PM EDT
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I think...
What Matty was getting at was the fact that the Dolphins have a much weaker schedule than the Redskins; so while the Redskins are the more talented team, the Dolphins could win more games due to an easier schedule and job insecurity.
by KCarr9 on Jul 22, 2008 5:52 PM EDT 0 recs
Yeah, that’s not what I’m arguing about. I’m only contesting the lines that I put in quotes…that Campbell supposedly didn’t outplay McCown last year.
Check out my Dolphins site for news and analysis: http://www.phinaticism.blogspot.com
by PhinPhan in MA on
Jul 22, 2008 6:00 PM EDT
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Campbell was under .500 as a starter last year
Sorry, but I’m not drinking the Campbell kool-aid here. He was just 6-7 as a starter last year for a team that had some talent.
And in college, the dude was loaded with talent around him as Auburn. Cadillac and Ronnie come to mind. And they had a sick receiver, too, bu I can’t recall his name right now.
by Matty I on
Jul 22, 2008 11:12 PM EDT
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It all comes down to how good Beck is...
If McCown is inthere then no, the Dolphins will be lucky to win 4 games.However, if Beck is good enough to take over, there is no limit as to how good the Dolphins can be. Jim Zorn is their coach now and our team has been overseen by Parcells who is one of the very best at putting a team together quickly. All aspects of the Redskins and Dolphins match up its just that QB is a big unknown. But then again “unknowns” have won Superbowls before. As for JT I don’t think he’ll end up any better than he would have if h would have just stayed.
"If anything goes bad, I did it. If anything goes semi-good, we did it. If anything goes really good you did it. That's all it takes to get people to win football games for you."
Coach Paul Bear Bryant
by AussieKen on Jul 22, 2008 6:16 PM EDT 0 recs
No
i want some of the stuff you guys are smoking this shouldnt even be a question bill parcells is great but not that great i think you guys will do better than last year i mean it cant get any worse than that haha we made the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years the only place were going is up and if the dolphins are better ill eat my words and shoot myself in the face oh yeah thanks for jason taylor we appreciate it so you lost taylor and thomas? youre defense is going to fall apart without ther leaders
by Redskin on Jul 22, 2008 6:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Must be rough in D.C....
...with the punctuation shortage. We’ll start saving our extra commas, periods, and semicolons, and mail them to you as soon as possible. Hang in there.
If I had a tagline, this would be it.
by lancelotlink on
Jul 22, 2008 10:49 PM EDT
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oh...and u can go debate this with Michael Lombardi on his blog...
He’s the one that really believes that Miami will be better. I just threw it out to stir up the pot a bit.
Seems to be working!
by Matty I on
Jul 22, 2008 11:13 PM EDT
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tough talk
coming from a fan of the league’s biggest paper tiger.
by Patssuck456 on
Jul 23, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
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i hope a real native american turns peels your skin off, you coward.
by chrislucas on
Jul 23, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
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Coaching
There are PLENTY of sports where good coaching can get you 2-3 wins, not just football. Baseball is an obvious example, with 162 games a year, but of course the percentages are different. Good managers in baseball generally don’t get you 29 wins that you wouldn’t have otherwise.
Expectations of this team seem a bit high. I’m hopeful that Parcells and Sparano will turn this around quickly, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
by ZIM on Jul 23, 2008 10:15 AM EDT 0 recs
wow i couldnt join the Warpath blog....
It kept saying my screen name was banned? lol I was going to spam them….... just a little bit. =P
by KCarr9 on Jul 23, 2008 1:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Look, on paper..
the skins might look better than us, also, they are in the NFC, the worst conference, so the might end up in the playoff. But you know what??, last year we lost to them by 3 points in there home opener, and that was went JT & Poter were doing S**t for us, defensibly. This year we has improved our specail team, our OL, and the from 7 would be a lot better stoping the run, maybe not that good presuring the QB, but i think the Porter will step up and do the difference. You know what? we are better than the skin, and better coach too. The might end up in the playoof with a 8-8 record, we, definitly, will not end up in the playoof even with a 9-7 record. BTW a 7-9 in the AFC is like a 9-7 in the NFC.
I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(20 years and counting)
by Aleta on Jul 24, 2008 11:03 AM EDT 0 recs
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