The Wilford Effect
With all this talk about the rookies recently, I think that there's one new acquisition that might actually be getting overlooked in many fans' eyes. The signing of former Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford is really going to have a nice positive effect on this Miami offense. At 6'4, 233, he may not be flashy. But he's big and physical and will provide our quarterback (whoever it happens to be) with a reliable target on key plays.
Reliability is something that the Dolphins lacked a lot of last season. Consider that there was no wide receiver on the Dolphins roster last season who caught more than 50% of the passes that were thrown their way (excluding Greg Camarillo, who was only targeted 10 times, catching 8 passes). The receiver with the highest catch percentage last year in Miami? Derek Hagan, with a success rate of 50%.
Last season with Jacksonville, Ernest Wilford had a success rate of 61%, catching 45 passes on 74 total targets. That's rather impressive when you consider some of the success rates of the game's top receivers: Randy Moss - 62%, Braylon Edwards - 52%, Terrell Owens - 57%, Chad Johnson - 58%, Steve Smith - 58%, Larry Fitzgerald - 60%, and Torry Holt - 63%; just to name a few.
But it's not all that fair to compare Wilford's success rate with the above because the players above were also targeted much more often. But if you take a look at the success rates of players who have around the same amount of targets, you'll still see Wilford's figure stands superior:
Ernest Wilford: 61% (45/74)
Donte Stallworth: 61% (46/75)
Brandon Stokely: 56% (40/71)
Drew Carter: 51% (38/74)
Drew Bennett: 45% (33/73)
As you can see, Wilford's numbers remain impressive when you talk about other wide receivers in his class.
But this is only part of the impact (and improvement) of the acquisition of Wilford. The man is also a first-down machine, something the Dolphins sorely lacked last season. And for comparison's sake, we will look at Wilford's numbers as compared to the player he's replacing here in Miami, Marty Booker.
And before we get into anything, I did want to point out one key stat. Last season, following the trade of Chris Chambers to San Diego, most of us figured that this meant Marty Booker would really have to step up and play well. After all, he was now starting opposite of a rookie wide receiver. Instead, Booker went on to struggle. Rather than being the reliable set of hands that Miami's quarterback could turn to, Booker "officially" dropped 7 passes (though, as many Dolphin fans know, that's being generous). Wilford, for comparison, dropped just 2 last season.
Moving on to my "moving the chains" point, one of the most important stats you can look at for a wide receiver is their 3rd down production. And this is where Ernest Wilford is really going to make a big impact in Miami. Below are the stats for both Wilford and Booker on 3rd downs in 2007:
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Success % | 1st Downs |
| Ernest Wilford | 28 | 19 | 68% | 17 |
| Marty Booker | 33 | 12 | 36% | 10 |
That's quite a difference, isn't it? And what's more impressive is that in that medium range of 3rd and inches to 3rd and 7, Wilford has caught 14 of the 18 passes thrown his way for a total 14 first downs. Compare that with Booker's numbers in that same range (9/21, 7 1sts) and you can clearly see the major positive impact that Wilford is going to have on this Dolphins team.
Of course, it's important to remember that you are not going to see many, if any, deep balls thrown Wilford's way. That's just not his game. Consider that 11 passes were thrown 21 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage in Wilford's direction in '07, and just 1 was caught (for 35 yards). This is due to his lack of long speed. But whats even more impressive is how reliable Wilford is in balls that travel between 1 and 20 yards in the air. On those passes, Wilford caught 44 of 59 passes (75% success rate).
Wilford is also going to have a big impact inside the redzone for the Dolphins, supplying the Miami QB with a nice big target in the endzone. Last season, Wilford had 2 touchdowns in "goal to go" situations in 5 chances. One was a 6 yard touchdown on 1st and goal. The other was a 17 yard touchdown reception on a 3rd and goal. Meanwhile, Marty Booker also had 2 catches in "goal to go" situations. However, none of them were for touchdowns.
So the signing of Ernest Wilford may have been a bit overlooked at the time, and still might be overlooked by some as we speak. However, once the season starts, I'm sure that many Dolphin fans will be pleasantly surprised by what Wilford will bring to this offense.
Thoughts?
1 recs |
27 comments
Comments
Hands
I like Wilford. I like receivers with good hands, and Wilford’s one of them. You can run like a deer all you want, but you’re still useless if you can’t catch the ball when it’s thrown to you. We’ve not had a truly reliable pair of hands in our receiving corps in quite a while. That makes Wilford a very welcome addition, as far as I’m concerned.
by urbino on May 6, 2008 1:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can Wilford have the impact of another former Dolphin...
To me, Receivers don’t always need blazing speed. One of my favorite Dolphins ever, Oronde Gadsden, only ran a 4.8 in the 40, and all he did was catch TD’s and convert 3rd Downs all day long. Ask Marino or Fiedler just how valuable a target Oronde was during his career in Miami. If Wilford can have a similar impact, it will translate into more W’s.
by shula13 on May 6, 2008 2:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thats a good comparison
Lets hope Wilford doesnt get greedy like Orande did though
by Patssuck456 on May 6, 2008 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jerry Rice
who is only the best receiver to ever play, never ran better than a 4.7 – 40.
Timed speed on a track is oftentimes overrated and certainly not a guarantee of success in the league.
Wilford looks like the real deal and I think he’ll be a very solid addition to this team.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
where the adjusment
for the average completion percentage of the QB throwing him the passes.
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 2:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I liked the Wilford signing
because I think he compliments Ginn perfectly at the WR spot. Ginn has all the speed and long ball capability you can ask for, and will most likely demand a safety over the top, and Wilford will work the underneath zones and the middle of the field for first downs like you said. I think adding a guy like Bess or Foster in the slot to turn 2 yd passes into 12 yd gains will add another dimension to the offense. I still think we could use another big reliable target, whether it be another WR or a TE. Fasano could be that guy, but we don’t know that yet. Hagan hasn’t proven he can catch anything at this point, but we’ll see how the Wilford/Ginn tandem works out. I may be the only one, but I feel like we may only be one piece away from having a very good offense, if the new acquisitions work out.
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by Little Nicky 21 on May 6, 2008 2:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nicky...
let’s hope we actually have some semblance of a deep passing game this year! Last season with cam it was dink and dunk the entire season, ughhh…
I like the Wilford acquisition and think, as the stats Matty used suggest, that he’ll be a significant upgrade over Marty Booker. You absolutely need a guy who can move the chains, not drop passes, open up the middle for your offense, and make those clutch catches in the red/endzone.
I’d like to see another reliable target also but that may have to wait a year. Then again, maybe Bess will be that guy seeing as Hagan has not exactly blown people away with his hands.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he was our best offseason non-draft signing.
As a lifelong Dolphin fan, watching last season hurt really bad, as it did for all of us, so to try to stop the bleeding a little, I watched a lot of Jaguars games and kinda started rooting for them to go deeper into the playoffs, and Wilford quickly became one of my favorite players on the team.
So when he was sent to Miami, you can bet I was excited.
Wilford is a possession receiver, there’s no doubt about that, but possession receivers are an absolutely essential part to any team. Wilford gives us a reliable set of hands and, as Matty pointed out, the guy is a 3rd-to-1st-down machine. That’s just as, if not more, important then any deep threat, especially with QBs in their first few seasons in the league.
Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi
by ratenxs on May 6, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You’re not a lone. I find it hard not to root for the Jags. Especially since their QB went to East Carolina, the college my brother goes to.
Tennessee just picked up their running back/returner in the first round. He was a lot of fun to watch when I went to ECU games.
11
y not if im wrong who will remember
by qbinfin on Apr 27, 2008 3:27 PM PDT
by DolfinPhan on May 6, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
I agree 100%. Wilford was a much bigger addition than advertised. The redzone has always been a problem for the Phins, especially when line has fallen apart there in previous years.
The Dolphins have the skilled players in place. They have a nice receiving corps that, depending on Ginn, could be special. They have a deep, if questionable, backfield that I think will be fully operable by the season’s start (either Ronnie or Ricky – hopefully both – will be back to form).
They still don’t have a quarterback. I know they have three guys there to compete, and I like the odds that one of them will emerge a clear winner, but until this actually happens the Dolphins are still mediocre.
That is unless somehow Ricky channels the ghost of his 2002 season and Ronnie the beginning of last year. Then we might not need a quarterback at all. Jayson Foster could just hand the ball off or run the option.
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by The Phinisher on May 6, 2008 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't that be funny?
To see Ronnie and Ricky blocking for Foster on a sweep?
:)
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on May 6, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matty, I don't know if he has been overlooked...
I more get the feeling that people have just taken it for granted that he is an upgrade at WR and will start. I know that has been my feeling on his signing. Very glad to have him!
-LCFF
by LeftCoastFinFan on May 6, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No fan of Marty Booker...
but another thing to think about is who was throwing him the ball last year, when comparing him to WIlford. Not defending Booker, he is terrible, but just food for thought…
I am not as jazzed as others here at the EW pick up- but i do agree he will be an upgrade over Booker. But that really isn’t saying much since Booker was abysmal.
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by NumberSeven on May 6, 2008 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Matty
your stats need to be normalized by the team QB overall completion percentage. Of course Wilford’s success rate is going to be much higher when Garrads overall comletion percentage (64%) dwarfed our team QB’s completion %.
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True
But there’s no way to really adjust these stats to consider the QB without going back and watching every pass targeted in their direction.
The point here was to just give a slight overview of the kind of upgrade Wilford is over Booker. I think the total “official” drops figure really says a lot.
And as far as Booker is concerned, his overall success rate for 2007 was 48%, lower than Hagan’s (50%) and Ted Ginn’s (49%). That says a lot right there.
by Matty I on May 6, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea
i dont know about a 1 or 2% difference saying alot about anything… but I like the drops figure, that should def help.
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yatil...
you bring up a good point about Wilford having played with a QB who had a pro bowl season vs. the group of incompetents we had last year.
Still, if you look at Jax’s passing stats for the year, they completed 61.4% of their passes vs. 57% for the fins. Taking that into account you would assume on average that the Jax receivers would have about a 4.4% better success rate than the Fins receivers.
What you notice though is Wilford was over 60% while the fins receivers were no better than 50%. So even with that 4.4% increase for a better QB – Wilford would have had a much better success rate than our guys last year.
I expect him to be a 55%+ success rate player this year.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
I only looked at Garrard % it was 64, which would be a 7% difference… but I forgot Quinn Gray did play a game or two didnt he..
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
additionally,
If your reciever catches the ball then the QB completion percentage goes up. Thus is it a chicken or egg thing? The reciever’s stats are huge on completions because of the QB or the QB’s stats are huge because of his receivers.
by Ozols on May 6, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yea..
in reality its probly a combination of both.. but Wilford was there last year when Leftwich was throwing to him, so I wonder what his success rate was w/ Leftwich at the helm.
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean Garrard not Leftwich
since Leftwich was cut by Del Rio before the season started.
As for a combination of both, keep in mind the drop statistic. Those are passes that the statisticians definitely felt the receiver should have caught and helps moderate the subjectivity of the QB factor.
Booker had 7, Wilford had 2 – Wilford also was over 10% points better at catch success than any Dolphins starting receiver, even though Garrard completed only 4% more of his passes than our guys.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or rather...
the Jag’s QB’s, as a group (Gray + Garrard) compl % was only 4.4% higher than our QB’s compl % but Wilford was 10%+ higher on success rate than our receivers while only having 2 drops.
For me at least, conclusion is: Wilford is a definite upgrade over Booker & Hagan.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my point...
isnt necessarily that Wilford isnt an upgrade, but that the % difference in success rate is slightly inflated so I wouldnt get too too excited about it just yet.
I wonder if they keep track of run blocking stats… Booker was an above average run blocker… but Wilford paved the way for one of the best running games in the league so he’s got alot experience w/ that… I think I could get excited about that
by YatilGinnJr on May 6, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Wilford
did play with better QB’s, there’s no doubt.
He should still be over 55% this year and that takes into account a lesser group of potential starting QB’s here for the coming season. Given our top starting WR last year was at 50, I’d day jumping to at least 55% is an upgrade since a lot of the catches this kid will make will be in 3rd down situations.
by Natalya on May 6, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Wilford brings good hands to the Fins and thats what we need; as much as speed. Can’t wait to see Ginn, Wilford, and Bess line up in a 3 wide. The Allstate guys.
by gafinfan on May 7, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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