Dolphins low-balling Jake Long?

by Matty I on Apr 16, 2008 10:47 PM EDT in News Comment 15 comments

Here's an interesting report by Rob Rang, who is a senior analyst at NFLDraftScout.com. He reports that the Dolphins initial offer to Jake Long was low. How low?

While insiders maintain the Dolphins have Jake Long as the highest-rated prospect in the draft, their grade on the All-American offensive tackle is only slightly higher than that of pass rushers Vernon Gholston and Chris Long. The Dolphins are so torn as to whom to select, they're essentially auctioning off the pick - for the lowest contract.

Insiders tell me the initial offer sent to Jake Long's representatives was $10-15 million less than what the first and second picks of last year's draft (Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell and Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson) stand to earn with their rookie deals. Should one of the three be willing to sign for a significantly lower sum, the Dolphins could find themselves drafting a player who they don't necessarily have ranked at the top of their board.

Now that's low. But, again, this is just a rumor. And it's also likely that this offer was just used as a starting point (if this rumor is indeed accurate). After all, that's probably why they started negotiations with Jake's agent, Tom Condon, so early.

But if the Fins really do have Jake atop their draft board, then I would expect this offer to rise to a more reasonable contract.

And if they are so "torn" on who to take number one, then I would imagine the team would enter negotiations with others. But they haven't yet, despite reports that the Dolphins contacted Vernon Gholston last week. Those reports have turned out to be false.

I guess the best thing to do right now is to just sit and wait until next Thursday or Friday, at which time contract talks will certainly be heating up and we'll have a better idea on what might go down.

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I wonder...

if all the smokescreening and posturing is over for Miami, and were just trying to come up with a reasonable contract with Jake. Even if a contract isn't done by draft day, maybe we take him anyway, and the contract talks started so early to try to come up with the lowest possible number that Jake will accept before camp?

http://canemutiny.blogspot.com A fans view of Miami Hurricanes Football and Basketball

by Little Nicky 21 on Apr 16, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would love to know

how all this information is all of a sudden availabe, after months of no one having any idea what we were gonna do. Now suddenly everone knows whats going on. /Sigh

You Savvy?

by Neo on Apr 16, 2008 11:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eh?

who really cares about the 10-15 million less then last years contract... the only 'real' number is the guranteed money and there is no mention of that here.... as far as i'm concerned they can give JLo $110 million in contract number millions, if say the real money comes in at 28-29 mil for 6 years...

Since they are still talking, I assume the real numbers must be closer then this leads article suggests, since condon, and i'm pretty sure here(based on say last season)that he has no problem having his client cut off talks and walk away from what he sees as a bad deal.

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 16, 2008 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

if we really lowballed Long that bad then your right about Condon walking out until a better deal comes up

http://canemutiny.blogspot.com A fans view of Miami Hurricanes Football and Basketball

by Little Nicky 21 on Apr 17, 2008 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"real money"

I agree that the guaranteed money is key. But the total value is just as important because it's likely that he'll see all that money. After all, Ronnie Brown is seeing all his money.

So Jake's salary is really going to be just as important as the guaranteed money because, more than likely, he's not going to be a bust or anything (hopefully).

by Matty I on Apr 17, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is he??

~~After all, Ronnie Brown is seeing all his money~~

don't know his contract at all... I do know that R Bush's contract is so full of fake money (bonus for huge yardage carries numbers etc) that it was reported that he'll be lucky to get his guranteed money(slight exageration there) and I'm pretty sure J Russell's contract last year was over bloated with fake performance numbers too...

there is that whole ego thing in play... R Bush needed to have a contract larger then M Williams, so the saints gave him one... J Russell needed to have the big contract and the raiders cooked one their too....

So if they were talking 10-15 mil less in real money, do you think Condon would really still be talking?

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 17, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No he wouldn't be...

it would be absurd for an agent, particularly Condon, to even discuss offers of $10-15M less than last year's #2 pick!

I think this is all hype, just like so much of what's going on now pre-draft.

by Natalya on Apr 17, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not unless the

contract was for less years. If jake signed a 4yr rookie contract instead of the normal 6 yr. It wouldn't be bad on his part because now he will hit FA sooner and get another big signing bonus if his performance is great. Plus his Gur money would be in the same range which would protect him if hes a bust. I would thing his agent would also want a clause keeping them from Franchise him. That may get it done.

by jvw on Apr 17, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's an interesting idea.

and has it's merits. If the kid plays well as an LT, then you can renegotiate in a couple of years to extend his contract, but if not, you are off the cap hook sooner.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 17, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

except that

no team would ever give up those 2 years....

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 17, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

Ever since we took Fletcher, I cringe when I think about drafting CB's.

by Coolbean04 on Apr 17, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still think most of these posts are missing the

real point...

While everyone wants to talk about last year's picks, the only real question that will matter to Long, and Condom, is, "What is the best deal that he can get THIS year".

I know how it has been traditionally done... an automatic increase based on the same pick in the first slot last year. From there, the matrix for lower picks has two factors.... the second pick, for example, looks at last year's corresponding pick AND this year's picks in the slots before and after. Which is why it takes a long time to get all those guys signed. No one is willing to go unless the guys before have gone.

But BP is doing it differently, and in my opinion, the way it should always be done. He has 3 guys, and will take (basically... there is some other stuff too) the least cost.

So, I hear all the arguments about Condom's reputation and all that, but it really boils down to one thing... If a guy DOES NOT work a KNOWN deal with the Dolphins, what will he potentially make at another spot?

Here's how it probably plays out:
If Condon thinks Jake has an 85% chance of going by the 2nd pick, and a 90% chance of going by the 3rd pick, he takes the numbers at those slots last year, takes the larger of and average percentage increase of those slots for the past few years, OR the percentage increase of just 2007 over 2006, and adds that to last year's deals in slots 2 and 3. Now he knows his "risk" or downside if he doesn't do a deal with the Fins.

If the Dolphins are offering more than what Condom projects the #2 slot to be worth, even if it is less that last year's #1, he has to consider it.

If Jake does not take the deal with the Dolphins, two things could happen that would drastically affect Condom's reputation:

Jake could drop to #3 or 4, which means the deal he passed up would be SUBSTANTIALLY more than he will end up with (I would not hire that guy for my agent!)....
OR/AND
If the Dolphins succeed in signing someone to a lower offer, that may well have the effect of reducing the value of all of the subsequent slots. So the #2 might be even less than Condom initially projected.

Now, if you were Gholston, would you take less money at #1, or rather take full value at, say... #4 or 5? If you are Gholston's agent, do you advise your client NOT to take that offer from the Fins? Is anyone going to argue that the "agents are going to stand united on principles"?, and that they have all agreed not to accept the #1 pick unless it is $X? Right! When have you ever heard of an agent with principles? If Gholston's agent can get himself and his guy and extra few (ten?) million guaranteed, he is going to TAKE IT!.

And then where does that put Jake?

This is the only question that matters.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 17, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs