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New Draft (Value) Chart

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

PFT:

A couple of weeks ago, we developed a revised trade chart for valuing draft picks.  We've since caught wind of a new chart that has been developed by and among multiple teams, and that could be put in use as soon as this year.

The new chart can be seen right here.

In contrast to the current trade chart, the new chart has very different values for the picks in round one.  At the top, the points are compressed.  The first pick was worth 3,000; it's now down to 2,000.  However, the sixth pick is worth more under the new chart than it was under the prior version.  Each remaining pick, from No. 7 to No. 32, is worth more as well, with the last pick in the round now worth 670, up from 590.

The only difference in round two is that the first pick in the round is worth 570 under the new chart.  It previously had a value of 580.  The values for all picks in rounds three through seven are unchanged.

The chart has been revised due to the dramatic increases in the contracts paid to the first few players selected in the draft.  The financial investment required when exercising such a high pick necessarily has reduced the total value of these picks, necessitating a reduction in the total perceived trade value of the top selections.

The apparent reason for the 100-point gap between the bottom of round one and the top of round two is that the last player drafted in round one can be signed to a five-year deal.  At the top of round two, the maximum duration is four years.

Under that theory, however, the difference between picks No. 16 and No. 17 should be more than 40 points, since the maximum contract length at the top half of round one is six years.

It remains to be seen whether the new chart becomes widely used by NFL teams.  It's clearly an improvement, however, over the outdated chart that was developed in the 1990s.

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

0 recs | Comment 12 comments

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thanks Neo!
i had heard about this but was unable to find it.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 15, 2008 3:16 PM EDT   0 recs

back when you and i were arguing about
trade value, this is the point i was trying to make when i told you to ignore the old value chart.  it doesn't reflect current value of the top picks because of the drastically increased cost.

while a straight across trade for dallas' two #1s is not exactly even, it is now, according to this new chart, pretty doggone close.

:)

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 15, 2008 3:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Here's the value for us in such a trade...
the combined guaranteed salaries of picks #22 & #28 is sure to be quite a bit smaller than that of the single #1 pick overall.

by Natalya on Apr 15, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes ma'am!
that has been my bandwagon for a while, because I also think that there is enough depth in this draft to select pro bowl talent at various positions (like OT or CB) all the way to the bottom of the first round.  When you are in the state of the dolphins, you need as many good players as you can get! :)

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 15, 2008 4:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I know you've been
promoting that idea and encountered some resistance from those advocating we stick to the old JJ draft chart value.

Then again, almost everyone complains about the money this #1 pick is going to cost us.

So here it is, you don't want to pay $30M+ in guaranteed money to a rookie? Trade down.

Brady Quinn went at #22 last year and got a great deal (for him) from the Browns. And yet, it only has a mere $7.5M guaranteed over 5 years. Between such a deal and the #28 pick, you are looking at maybe $11-13M guaranteed tops.

by Natalya on Apr 15, 2008 4:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well, like you have said many a time
trading down is easier said than done.   i still think Jones could do the deal, and Dallas is certainly a team that could benefit from having the pick (i mean they are contenders without many holes, so one stud could make the difference for them this year).
I just don't think he needs to trade up to #1.
:(

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 15, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

why trade up to #1
when you can trade up to #5 and get the same player..

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 15, 2008 8:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly.
If we were actually able to move out of that #1 spot this year, I would be very, very, very, very surprised.
Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling. ~Vince Lombardi

by ratenxs on Apr 16, 2008 1:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

heh....nope
I've actually never been to Vegas proper, just some places nearby.

by Natalya on Apr 15, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no such thing
as vegas proper.... there is absolutely nothing proper about this place.  ;)

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 15, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL
probably one reason I've never gone :)

by Natalya on Apr 15, 2008 5:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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