Dolphins give Jake Long a deadline

by Matty I on Apr 14, 2008 11:43 AM EDT in News Comment 24 comments

SI.com's Peter King is reporting that the Dolphins have indeed given Jake Long a deadline to come to terms with a contract. Here's what King writes in today's "Monday Morning Quarterback" column, which by the way, is the best weekly internet column about the NFL:

Miami is negotiating with one player right now -- Michigan tackle Jake Long. There is a deadline, yes; I don't know what it is. But if Long doesn't agree to a deal -- think of something less than the six-year, $62-million deal ($31 million guaranteed) signed by JaMarcus Russell last year -- Parcells will move to his next guy. My educated guess -- which an NFL front-office acquaintance of Parcells seems sure of -- is that the next candidate will be Gholston, the Ohio State defensive end.

Interesting that we're now a week removed from the initial reports about the negotiations that have started and still no reference to Chris Long. Apparently, Peter King now believes that Vernon Gholston is option #2 for the Dolphins. I'm not saying I'm against this. It's just rather interesting.

One problem the Dolphins might have while trying to work out a deal with Jake Long is that Jake likely isn't going to fall very far. He could go as high as #2 overall to the Rams and probably wouldn't make it past the Falcons at #3. So Tom Condon, Jake's agent, does have some leverage here.

I wonder what the "deadline" is, anyways.

Tick, tick, tick...

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Tick TIck Tick is

the real question, more specifically, what is the deadline?

Although I would bet, and I suspect you would agree with me, that the deadline is surely before draft day. I doubt BP & Co. will draft a player with whom they do not have a deal/contract already in place for and risk a holdout.

If we accept the story as true (which is not always easy as we are PRE-draft), then you have to figure the dolphins would have to give themselves enough time to talk/negotiate to/with guy #2 (Gholston apparently). So they can't just wait until the day before the draft to end talks with Long and start negotiating with Gholston. This suggests a few days, maybe a week, before they move on - otherwise they won't have enough time to sign a player.

by Natalya on Apr 14, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's a question...

Is Parcells rushing Jake Long so he can then turn to Gholston and get him done to then just turn around and show Chris Long what the other guys will sign for?

I just can't imagine that Parcells and Co. are looking at it like... Ok we like Jake Long. If he doesn't sign a contract in so many days, we'll move on to the second best player we like and so on.

Matt

by Matt27 on Apr 14, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This could all jus be

an elaborate smokescreen or a plot to force a trade. Would KC move to 1 to get Long? Maybe. Picking at 5 wouldn't be awful for us. We may be able to still get Gholston.

Regardless it is awesome for this to be happening, whether or not we actually want to sign someone or have other motives.

by JMFlyer1454 on Apr 14, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KC crossed my mind as the most likely...

...target of this scenario. However, if KC is really looking for a LT, would they be better off with Jake Long, or just waiting for their spot and taking Clady, who will cost them probably $10mil (or even more) less in guaranteed money?

I am one of the professed Matt Ryan fans, and its making me sick to think the Jets may possibly draft this guy. I'd love to trade back to #5 and grab Ryan, but thats not going to happen. I wonder if Parcells likes Ryan better at the cheaper price he would come at getting picked at #5.

by dab415217 on Apr 14, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Am Troubled

If they sign a player before draft day, then well, they are essentially off the clock.

Draft day is a hallowed drinking holiday for me and my small band of Pennsylvanian Dolphins fans.

A pre-draft signing would detract from the festivities.

;)

by The Phinisher on Apr 14, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Phinisher

You're from PA? Me too! I live in Indiana for the moment but should be back in PA by May 2009. ALways nice to know another PA Fin Fan.

by JMFlyer1454 on Apr 14, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phoenixville, PA

Is the town. I have a bookstore there. Stop by if your wandering near Philadelphia.

by The Phinisher on Apr 15, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lets look at the possible parameters of a deal.

2004 #1 pick
Eli Manning - 6yrs $45mil $20mil bonus

2005 #1 pick
Alex Smith - 6yrs $50mil $24mil bonus

2006 #1 pick:
Mario Williams - 6yrs $54mil $26.5mil bonus

2007 #1 pick:
JaMarcus Russell - 6yrs $61mil $32mil bonus

Seems like a pretty standard progression. Granted, the last OL drafted was in 1997.

Just how much wiggle room does Bill Parcells have to work with here? Are any agents willing to suffer the wrath of their fellow agents by signing for less than Russell did last year?

Seems to me the best case scenario is that BP is able to get Jake Long signed for 6yrs $60mil $28mil bonus. And even that would be a VERY hard sell IMO.

by dab415217 on Apr 14, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

think if was P king

who wrote that he figures that BP/JI would say russell received the QB bonus and that Miami would use the J Thomas contract as the base point to work out a deal with J longp. (6 years??, but $28 mil)

Now I'm sure most agents will say NO, NO, NO that isn't right...

but J long is likely the hardest player to sign at a discount since st louis will likely take him #2 (so not much risk for him to gamble)

now gholston, dorsey, c long, & ryan could be risking 10 mil or more if miami offers to select them first, so they are the more likely to sign at less then 2006 rates.

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 14, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good move

I like Jake Long, hope he is our #1 pick, but I like Gholston more than C. Long. With Gholston's agent there is no telling where Ghoslton will go. He could go to the Raiders, but I think they'll go McFadden.

Ghoston could drop a bit, (not out the top 10 or anything) but enough where he wouldn't get anywhere near the money he would get if he would take lesser #1 pick money than last year.

Anyways, the upside to this guys has no limit and we have the men up and down stairs to get this potential out of him. Who is to say he isn't the real #1?

All that being said, I want J. Long, but Condon will be best off not to try to bust Parcell's balls. Bad, bad idea.

You Savvy?

by Neo on Apr 14, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure of that.........

I don't think he has as much leverage as he think he has. If Jake can't come to a agreement with us what is that saying to the rest of the league? The Rams will be thinking this guy is going to want more money than the 1st pick in the draft. If thats the case they may go with Dorsey. My opinion is if Jake doesn's sign with us he will drop in the draft. This is a dangerous move by his agent because this draft doesn't have a clear cut number 1 pick, there are to many options for teams so they don't have to draft him.

by jvw on Apr 14, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He goes no lower than #5 to KC.

I think of all of the guys being considered at #1 he has the most leverage. I honestly don't think the Rams pass on him, but if they do, KC will snap him up.

Don't underestimate the agents' agenda in these negotiations.

by dab415217 on Apr 14, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a Normal Draft

Year I would agree with you. But this looks like a clear move by owners to draw a line in the sand to slow down the cost of signing your number 1 pick and who better to lead the charge than our own Big Bill. I think the Rams will follow suit. KC on the other hand will draft him unless Ryan is still on the board and if they draft him at 5 he will make even less money than he would of if he signed our contract which means less money for the agent. If the rams sign him he's going to want 1st pick money so they would be looking at a hold out there. We have three or 4 guys we could pick with the number 1. The only way Long gets leverage is if all the agents refuse to sign there client for less than last years pick. Then it gets ugly.

by jvw on Apr 14, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cut the knot

As everybody knows, the knot we are in is that there is no player in the draft that another team wants more than we do that we would credibly be believed to be willing to take. Atlanta is the big beneficiary of this, on the assumption that they want Matt Ryan, and the Rams and we have more pressing needs than QB. They seem to be quite right about this.

The solution? We draft Matt Ryan and trade him to the Falcons, or the Chiefs, or one of the other teams that would compete for him. Is it daring and risky? Sure, but it's interesting to note that Parcells wants Long to take less money than last year's #1 pick, which is unprecedented, but isn't that still more money than last year's #3 pick? There would be a tremendous amount of pressure for the Falcons, with all their draft picks, to swap their #1 for ours, and throw in one of their #2's. In fact, the real cost to them would only be that #2, since they would have used their #1 for Ryan regardless.

by jeff z on Apr 14, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why would Atlanta trade for Ryan if...

...we draft him #1, and thus would cost more money than if they waited and he dropped to them at #3?

I love Matt Ryan and would draft him at #1 in a heartbeat, but if I was the Flacons I'd just wait for him to drop to them. Reality it, I'm not so sure Atlanta wants him at #3 either.

by dab415217 on Apr 14, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see...

any agent who hopes to have a future clientele, negotiating a deal at #1 overall for less than $30M guaranteed.

As an agent, your job is to get your guy(s) the most money, the best deal possible. If an agent cuts a deal for less than $30M guaranteed at #1 overall this draft - then why would players sign up with this agent?

Would you hand your resume to a headhunter or recruiter who you knew was cutting deals for less money? I think most people would say no...

As for KC, I don't buy a Jake Long to KC scenario. For one, at 5, the chiefs can pick Ryan Clady or even Jeff Otah or Chris Williams to fill their tackle spot. Then again, they could easily pick Matt Ryan as Croyle has not exactly convinced people he's NFL starter material.

by Natalya on Apr 14, 2008 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But Nat....what if you knew your client

was going to be selected no earlier than #5 or 6? Wouldn't it be smart to negotiate a #1 pick for #3 money?

I mean, what if Parcells really wants Gholston at much less than #1 money? He is not going to go before #3 period, and probably not before 5 or 6 at the soonest. So you work a deal with the Fins to take him #1 for #3 money, and get a better deal for your guy than if you let him slide in the draft. You also get bragging rights and other perks from being the "#1 pick", and the Fins get a lower cost deal.

How could you pass on a deal like that if you're Gholston (or his agent)?

by LeftCoastFinFan on Apr 14, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Thomas

Do we know what he got last year? I would imagine the Phins are trying to pay him in that range, with a comparable salary for a top draft OLineman and not for a #1 pick...

Too young to remember 72...not old enough to forget about ever other year since!

by JGray on Apr 14, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

$43mil w/$23mil bonus for 5 years.

His contract didn't include a lot of fluff that most contracts seemed to have.

by dab415217 on Apr 14, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I pointed this out in a diary and I'll say it here

again...

For those looking at the joe thomas deal as a starting point you have to consider something. That something is that Mario Williams, who is a non-QB, and a lineman, like Long, was the #1 pick overall in '06. He got more money than the previous year's #1 pick, Alex Smith, even though Smith was a QB.

With this in mind, I don't see how the Joe Thomas deal will be used as a basis for negotating with jake long. The #1 pick always makes more money than the guy taken at #1 the year before - I don't expect that to change.

by Natalya on Apr 14, 2008 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait wait

How did King get this info?

by Patssuck456 on Apr 15, 2008 9:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

inquiring minds wanna know.

You Savvy?

by Neo on Apr 15, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just taking a wild guess here

from BP or some other fins front office person...
we'll never know because if the source was willing to be named, they would have been cited...

Likely it was leaked to put pressure on JLO that if he wants first pick money ... tick tick tick

or it's even possible T Condon leaked it to tell other teams that JLo isn't settling anytime soon, so don't try and trade expecting to get him for a discount at #1....

who know why the reason, but i'm pretty sure it's true and it was planned since it appear in what every NFL site in the world.

by W NY Fins Fan on Apr 16, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs