John Beck vs Josh McCown

by Matty I on Mar 5, 2008 12:03 AM EST in 2012 Miami Dolphins News

What I wanted to do was to just take a look back at Josh McCown's 2007 season in Oakland. But I figured I needed to provide some kind of baseline to measure his performance. That's why John Beck's numbers are also included.

So the idea here is to get to know Josh McCown a little better. Yes, we all know it's believed McCown will not be starting, per Chris Mortensen's report a few days ago that McCown was brought in to be the #2 quarterback. But we still need to get to know him, right?

McCown, who will be 29 by the time the regular season rolls around, is 2 years older than Beck and has 5 more seasons under his belt than John does. As far as physical tools go, McCown has them am except for accuracy. He's got a big-time arm and can make all the throws an NFL quarterback has to. But there's a reason why he's never really put together a solid season in the NFL. And like I said, accuracy is a problem. So is his decision making. But before we get into his accuracy, let's first just look at both John and Josh's 2007 numbers:

Player	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA	TD-Int	RushTD	Rating
John Beck	60	107	56.1	559	5.2	1-3	1	62
Josh McCown	111	190	58.4	1151	6.1	10-11	0	69.4

Considering Josh had a better supporting cast around him and has 5 more seasons of experience, those numbers are really not much better than John's. And that's probably why he'll be no better than a career backup quarterback.

But let's take a closer look courtesy of SI.com's stat splits to see how often each player made poor throws:

	Beck	McCown
Batted down at line	1.9%	2.6%
Overthrown	3.7%	6.8%
Underthrown	1.9%	3.7%
Thrown wide	10.3%	7.9%
Interceptions	2.8%	5.8%
Bad pass percentage	20.6%	26.8%

Those are telling stats, in my opinion. Over a quarter of Josh McCown's throws were inaccurate or intercepted. And that's why there's no way, even if Josh was given the change, he would beat out John Beck. Remember, Bill Parcells loves accurate quarterbacks. And that's why Bill is going to love John once he gets an actual supporting cast around him. Oh, and incase you don't believe the Raiders did have better a better cast around McCown last year than Miami had around Beck, consider the fact that in 190 pass attempts, Josh's receivers only dropped 4 passes on him while Beck had his receivers drop 9 passes on him in 83 fewer attempts.

Another thing to consider is how well a quarterback plays when he is blitzed. And thanks to SI's stat splits, we can compare those numbers as well.

Stats when facing a blitz:

Beck: 16/33 (49%), 173 yds (5.2 ypa), 1 TD, 0 int, 74.4 rating
McCown: 20/43 (47%), 284 yds (6.6 ypa), 1 TD, 3 int, 47.1 rating

Those numbers are very close. It seems like Josh takes more chances, resulting in more big plays but also more turnovers. But John being more conservative against a blitz is to be expected since he is a rookie and played in one of the most conservative offenses I've ever seen in a Miami offense.

So what's my point to all this? Simple. My point is that John Beck is already a better quarterback after one season than Josh McCown is after 6 seasons. I'm confident enough to say that there's no way McCown would ever beat out Beck in camp, even if he was given a fair shot (which according to Mortensen, he won't be). But with that said, McCown will be a valuabe backup because he does have a decent amount of starting experience.

But, I'm telling you all, John is going to be "the guy" in 2008.

Thoughts?

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Comments

Quinn Gray

I was a little curious as to why Quinn Gray or JT OSullivan didnt get a look. I didn't see Gray at all, tho his numbers seem pretty impressive. OSullivan looked pretty good in preseason and lit up europe.

Perhaps its the fact that they have no more experience than Beck, and at least we know what McCown is - a backup quarterback period. Although in my opinion still a better Quarterback period than guys like Frerotte and Lemon who we have had starting games for us!

How did Gray compare to McCown - he was about the only guy on the market that might have even compared in the same role as McCown (although Jacksonville must not have thought too much of him to seemingly prefer Lemon!!! and he sucks!!!)

by afishfan on Mar 5, 2008 12:43 AM EST reply actions

Matty I

Your more for Beck than I was against Cameron. Nothing wrong with that though. You keep saying that McCown had more talent to work with and such. I dunno if it was much. Oakland's offense has REALLY sucked sour frog n*ts the past few years. Any wins they did get was totally from thier defense, so I don't know about how much more "talent' McCown had to work with. I look at Oaklands offense and don't see anything that stands out to me as to say they were so much more talented.

Now this is not a endorsement for McCown in any shape of the imgaination, but I'm not endorsing Beck either. For some reason I can't get that game at Buffalo out my mind. Not saying that you did, but anyone can make the numbers the way they want to prove their point. Beck didn't convince me by the end year that he is the guy. If Beck was getting the job at least halfway done, scoring points, not fumbling, or even moving the ball on a consistant basis, I think even Cameron would have let him continue to start. Lets face it, Beck stunk up the joint. Cameron didn't handle it the right way, but lets call it for what it is. Beck didn't move the team to score any points and he fumbled the ball even if the defender just tickled him.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 5, 2008 1:13 AM EST reply actions

Its the Fumbles...

...that scare me. I need to find the (now prophetic) article where a prominant NFL scout (anonymously) said that he was concerned about Beck being able to hang on to the football. And we see how that turned out. I don't care how good Beck is, or becomes, if he can't prove he can hold onto the ball, none of it will matter.

by dab415217 on Mar 5, 2008 8:03 AM EST up reply actions

And Just To Clarify...

...I was for John Beck starting after the Giants game. I wanted to see him the rest of the year. I'm not anti-Beck, I'm just very pro-Matt Ryan.

by dab415217 on Mar 5, 2008 8:04 AM EST up reply actions

no doubt

While I personally like Beck quite a bit and feel his accuracy especially, but also his arm and mobility, and the fact he seems to have had a bit of a following in the locker room - will make him a very good quarterback. The one thing that scares the HELL out of me is the fact he would just lose the ball for no reason - those fumbles have to be eliminated - cause they happen in the backfield and can easily be returned for scores. I never saw anything about that scout - but now it is a concern for me - cause if that happened in college (which it must have) it truly is a problem. I just hope it can be corrected - does he have small hands or something?

by afishfan on Mar 5, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

neo

please let me know what about the buffalo game bothered you??

the buffalo game wasn't beck's fault in any way shape or form. the o-line pretty much quit on him.
I still remember the play where it was a 3 step drop and he hadn't even gotten to the third step and he was hit from the front and back side at the same time....

I was pretty bothered by that game, not because I though beck had a chance, but by the reaction of his teammates once cleo went in. they all acted as if cleo was marino reincarnated and was about to lead them to the super bowl. Was beck that disliked by his team mates or that disprespected because no one on the O-line put up any effort whatsoever until cleo came in. and it's that point that has always nagged me about beck... it just appeared that his team mates were pretty happy when he was taken out....

by W NY Fins Fan on Mar 5, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

You wanna know?

3 fumbles in a little over 1 quarter. O-line this- o-line that. Just because they get to him, doesn't mean he has to fumble. BTW that fumble that George Wilson returned 20 yards for a TD was nobodys fault but Becks. No one was near the man. That was Beck's fault in every way shape and form. You would've thought it was the man's 1st time stepping on a football field.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 5, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

interview

when are we gonna get a Matty I interview with John Beck????

by buster on Mar 5, 2008 4:34 AM EST reply actions

that's what I'm talkin about...

some Phinsider juice... what's goin on with J Beck? What's goin on with Ricky and Ronnie for that matter?

by phranchise on Mar 5, 2008 5:50 AM EST up reply actions

haha

I'll see what I can do once everything slows and we enter the summer months.

by Matty I on Mar 5, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

For a little bit

I belive john is gonna be our guy for the beginning of the season and a couple more games afta that.Then john is eaitha gonna get hurt or have to much pressure in his face and take alot of sacks and mistakes for the team.Thats wat happend last year and this year the line is just gonna be a little better so hes still gonna have pressure.Mccown is gonna step in for beck and play the rest of the season cuz he got alot more experience with a team like the raiders thats alot like ares just a little bit better.John beck is the better qb and everybody knows that but with the line we have your not gonna have a chance to show that next year.So its gonna come down to the qb with the most experience and the 1 that makes the smarter deciesions under presure and more mobile and who do you believe that is.................................

by lionel on Mar 5, 2008 8:46 AM EST reply actions

Not buying the stats.

Sorry, but with the little data Beck has it is really hard to make any conclusions from the stats. Though I agree it is interesting to look at, I just don't think it tells the real story.

With that said, I am still a Beck supporter. Why wouldn't I be?

#13

by 13FinsFan on Mar 5, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions

I must AGREE!

I haven't seen enough of BECK! I would have loved to have seen him with Ronnie behind him. But he played when guys had already given up and with an unprepared coaching staff. I also do give Cam some credit for his competence when it comes to selecting QBs.

McCown is a good young backup who can push Beck, but not overcome him.....

Too young to remember 72...not old enough to forget about ever other year since!

by JGray on Mar 5, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions

Whoa! Stats can be Misleading!!

Your stat analysis between Josh McCown and John Beck is bewildering.
How about these facts:
Josh McCown was the AZCardinals starting QB under Dennis "chilidog" Green. With JMac starting the Cards had won 3 of their last 4 games and two straight. They were in the hunt, so to speak.
Denny Green benched Josh on the eve of the Carolina game, and the Cards promptly lost 4 straight. Josh as the starter provided all six Cards wins.
McCown threw 2 TDs to knock the playoff bound Vikings out of the playoffs. The final TD coming on 4th down in the closing seconds.
Down 14 points early, McCown rallied the Cards to beat the 49ers in Mexico City, before the largest crowd to watch a regular season NFL game.
He can perform in a clutch situation!!
In spite of playing for three lowly franchises, (AZ DET OAK) with which some may add, terrible coaching, McCown's % winning as a starter, is better than the teams he was playing for.
He can elevate the play of the team!!!
McCown posted 2 of the NFLs top 5 passing performances (398 yds/ 385 yds) during the 2005 season.
He has a strong arm!!!
Promised that he would be competing for the starting job in Detroit, he took few if any, reps with the starting offense during training camp, yet lined up as a WR during a few games.
He's a team player and athletic!!!
With the Cards, he took a big hit from the Giants Gabril Wilson. Josh jumped up and Wilson was placed on IR. View the hits he took from the(AZ vs. Dallas) Cowboys' Roy Wiliams and Keith Davis. View the hits last year from the Broncos second game, (McCown highlites/ Raiders.com). He played and started with a broken toe, an ankle sprain, and a compound fractured finger!!
He is tough!!!
Josh McCown will be the Miami starter!!
Have a nice day everyone.

by Femfinfan on Mar 5, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions

If John had two pro-bowl WRs to throw to...

...like Josh did in Arizona, he'd have some impressive numbers as well. But John doesn't have anyone close to Fitzgerald and Boldin. So it's not really fair to compare Josh's games in Arizona to John's last year.

by Matty I on Mar 5, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

big games

The fact that the guy had a couple of nearly 400 yard passing games I think is a bit telling. Granted he had some receivers. But that is a lot of offense! It doesnt seem like scrub QBs put up numbers like that EVER. I would like to A. see those games, and B. know how many games like those have occurred in the past 5 years. McCown ran a 4.5 and he has some size. This guy is already a better option then Lemon, Harrington, and Frerotte EVER were, our quarterback situation is already better than it has been in any year since Fiedler and Griese (thats not saying a ton - but still)

by afishfan on Mar 5, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry but if you ask me...

who is better, at the end of last season...McCown or Beck? Then the answer is obvious, McCown.

I mean Beck didn't lead a single TD drive until his 5th game as I recall. And that was in the 2nd half against a team that had a lead.

At the end of last season if you asked me who I wanted to lead my team on a 2-minute drill to win a game, I'd pick Josh over Beck.

Before people jump all over what me for saying this..

McCown is a known commodity. He's a streaky passer with a penchant for getting his share of yards passing but also lots of mistakes, not unlike Jon Kitna. McCown isn't the next coming of anybody good. We all know what he can do.

Beck on the other hand is still very green. He could key word be better, much better. So there's an element of potential with Beck that doesn't really exist with McCown. Last year, Beck showed very little so this is a key year. If Beck doesn't impress then he'll probably become a Josh McCown type of QB, in other words, a backup.

by Natalya on Mar 5, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions

td drives

"I mean Beck didn't lead a single TD drive until his 5th game as I recall"

this is an important point, as although the stats indicate beck has shown more accuracy, and makes less 'bad throws', the fact is a QB who makes inaccurate throws yet leads teams on TD drives is gonna help an offense more than one who can't put together TD drives.

that being said i expect a great training camp for beck, and much improved play from him next year.

by buster on Mar 5, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

He should

~that being said i expect a great training camp for beck, and much improved play from him next year.~

He'll be 30.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 5, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Beck

turns 27 on August 21st.

by JMFlyer1454 on Mar 5, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

I was being sarcastic

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 5, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Like you...

I hope for the best in Beck. We all know McCown, if he became the starter, would just be one more guy since Marino, who would not be the answer.

The thing about Beck's numbers last year is you have to look at that 5.1 ypa. That is abysmal, not to mention a 56ish% completion rate in a conservative, short-pass offense.

Which is all part of why Beck has to show us a lot more this year if he is to be part of the solution here.

by Natalya on Mar 5, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

I sort of agree with you

but circumstances make a difference here...

ok beck starts in philly in a wind storm against a blitz happy defense with press corners...

then he gets pittsburgh in the hurricane. i don't think big ben with better talent averaged 5 yards per attempt in that game, and those were pretty...
i didn't see the jets game and that's it. buffalo he played what 5 passes and he had exactly 1.4 sec to throw on those passes....

So while i'm not sold on beck yet, and I do think his lack of success last season was the result of a totally inept coaching staff that had no clue on how to develop a young qb and put him in situations to succeed. So i'd like to see beck play the 08 season as the starter since we all know mccown isn't the answer and miami isn't going anyplace this year anyways.

by W NY Fins Fan on Mar 5, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

doh

then he gets pittsburgh in the hurricane. i don't think big ben with better talent averaged 5 yards per attempt in that game, and those were pretty...~~~

add "pretty much it for beck except for the jets game"

by W NY Fins Fan on Mar 5, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

You are correct about

his first TD drive happening in his fifth game. I always seem to go back to Beck's debut in Philly. In the fourth quarter, Beck started a beautiful drive from his own 21. The first 5 plays were completed passes (one of them negated by penalty). Cam changes up (chokes) the play calling and goes to Chatman (predictable). Beck gets one more pass play called and he delivers a beautiful-on the money-pass to Halterman who was open in the back of the endzone. Halterman DROPS the easy touchdown pass that hit him in the hands. I understand it is what it is, but my point is Beck can drive. Of the first five passes in that drive, 3 targeted Ginn, 1 to Booker and 1 to Peelle. He had rythem and Cam put a stop to that. I was at that game and saw these guys very up close. The body language was disheartening. Its a shame our rookie quarterback was not provided with better leadership than what he was forced to deal with. Beck has what it takes and the changed mental landscape is just what he needed.

by Thruthickandt on Mar 5, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

See my response to Buster below.

by Thruthickandt on Mar 5, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

Off Topic but

didn't want to make a diary about it. Ricky Willians, yes our Ricky Williams is gonna be on the Dan Patrick Show tomorrow. I'm gonna listen.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 5, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the update.

If you can, post a diary on it tomorrow with what he talks about on the show. Thanks!

by Matty I on Mar 5, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

mccown will start

josh mccown will make over 5 million dollars this year if you add his signing bonus. also i heard his interview on wqam monday night and its seems like he may have been promised the starting job. the herald also has a story about the qb competition.

by Judge Dredd on Mar 5, 2008 2:10 PM EST reply actions

Give Beck a chance

I know Beck didn't show much in the starts that he made last year. If you look at his BYU years, Beck didn't show much during his first year. Except for a very strong arm, there wasn't much positive about his play. I see parallels between his freshman and rookie years. People were calling for his head for most of his sophomore and part of junior years. Personally, I don't think it was Beck who was to blame for his poor performance, but the rest of the team. As the team improved, so did his stats and leadership. I feel the same will happen next year as the rest of the team improves. I don't know if Beck will ever reach super stardom, but if given the chance to improve, he will become a very capable starting qb in this league.

by dal on Mar 5, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions

The bottom line here is that...

the dolphins might a) think John Beck could be their QB of the future and will give him a chance, to compete for the job/start/etc, or b) don't think he's the guy and basically draft someone else.

No matter which way it plays out, should whomever we have as the starting QB play well, then they will keep the job for a while. Whether it is Beck or a rookie QB or even McCown.

by Natalya on Mar 5, 2008 4:30 PM EST reply actions

Get off John Beck's jock!

Dude, you have got to be kidding me??? John Beck was horrendous last season and he absolutely suuuuuuccccckkkkkssssss!!!!!!!!!!! Bill Parcells is going to bring us our future: Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco...but please, get out of here with your John Beck crush! The guy needs to be our perenial backup QB. Josh McCown was brought in for insurance while Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco beats out John Beck for the starting job this or next season. Beck? Please.

by mred on Mar 5, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions

Matty or anyone else

I happen to agree with matty stats. McCown is pretty much too inconsistant to be a starter in the NFL, so could someone please tell me what roll he serves on the team? 3+ mil a season is a little too high for a backup on a rebuilding team (yes it makes sense for a contending team to have a good back up and someday indy will regret not having one). I think most of us agree that miami will be drafting a QB at some point during this draft in order to enhance miami's chances of having a franchise QB in the future, but what will McCown do to help that?? yes i know BP likes to have a veteran QB by really why? Isn't it better to use buffalo last season as a roll model, draft a qb and let him learn while being #2 on the staff. Nall wasn't going to progress the franchise and edwards development would. Miami should follow this lead.

by W NY Fins Fan on Mar 5, 2008 6:54 PM EST reply actions

I'm not

saying that Bill will start John but the thing that is questioned in my mine is that the games I saw John play in he had several drives for TD's that were missed because of dropped passes. Also he had two or three drives killed by Chatman dropping passes that he either didn't get his head around fast enough or he just has bricks for hands. Did John play like a rookie, of course, that is what he is. Am I saying not to draft another QB, no, we should draft one every year until we have 3 good ones in rotation. Then we can play like SD or Atlanta and trade one for picks. All I'm saying is that John, in 3 and 3/4 games with the playcalling and crew he had, is no way to judge him. Or for that matter anyother QB that plays in the NFL.

As for the two TD drives John had at the end of the Cinncy game you can look at it the way you do but if it were say Marino with those drives trying to win the game you wouldn't be calling it garbage time would you?

by gafinfan on Mar 5, 2008 6:55 PM EST reply actions

Beck

Thought I would chime in on the subject of Beck and his prospects as QB. I can't give away my source, but I have it on good trust that Beck is the frontrunner for starting position next year. Not only are Parcells, Sparano and the rest of the coaching staff high on him, but many others around the NFL who would swoop him up if he became available. The Cowboys in fact had him #1 on their draft board of QBs (above Quinn and Russell).

I can also say, as a BYU alum, that Beck is incredibly committed, gritty, and a natural leader and student of the game. Many of you, I think, will be shocked at the progress he makes.

The reality is that QB is the hardest position to adapt to in the NFL, and his immersion was handled horribly last year. In addition, he had a bad line, bad receivers, and no running game. As a fan of Becks I was hoping they would replace the coaching staff and seriously revamp the team which it looks like they are doing. I know John has been working his butt off in the offseason and will come back determined to lead Miami back to prominence.

The key, from my perspective, is the o-line. It actually took Beck a while at BYU to move well in the pocket. It took some experience and stability on the line for him to gain the confidence to make the throws he needed to. When he knows he has no protection he tends to do a lot of short stuff, dump offs, etc. But when he has a line, he can and will air it out. And hopefully, the staff this year will let him show he has ONE HELL OF AN ARM! Seriously, we've had a lot of great QBs at BYU, but the way Beck threw it, this quick, effortless flick and that ball went flying.

The Dolphins might take a later QB in the draft, but the frontrunner is clearly Beck. The competition between him and McCown isn't really close. If Beck can stay healthy and we continue to improve our roster I say he leads the Dolphins to at least a .500 record this year.

by backseatqb on Mar 6, 2008 2:35 AM EST reply actions