Everything you wanted to know about the Fins in the playoffs, but were afraid to ask.

The playoff talk is heating up. I have several questions regarding the playoffs, so I am going to try to answer them with research. I figure most of you have similar questions, so I thought I would share. I think we should rec’d this post so that all can see, so we can stop the duplicate posts on this subject. I’ve gone over this several times and have spent most of the work day writing it. But it is complicated stuff and I may have made a mistake. I don’t think so though.

First an recap of relevant information

AFC EAST W L T  DIV  CONF

NY Jets     8 5  0    3-1   6-4

Miami        8 5 0     3-2  6-4

NE             8 5 0      3-2  5-5

AFC NORTH W L T   DIV CONF

Pittsburgh 10 3 0 .      4-0   8-1

Baltimore 9 4 0            4-1  7-3

AFC SOUTH W L T DIV CONF

Tennessee 12 1 0   4-0   8-1

Indianapolis 9 4 0    2-2   8-2

Jets, Pats, and Dolphins Common Opponents and current record vs.

Common Opponents Among all 3: San Fran. Seattle, AZ, St. Louis, San Diego, Oakland, Denver, KC, Buffalo

Dolphins: 7-1

Pats: 6-1

Jets: 4-4

Common Opponents current records Among 2 Teams (includes the third team from above left out):

Dolphins and Pats: Dolphins 7-2, Pats 7-2

Dolphins and Jets: Dolphins 8-2, Jets 5-5

Dolphins, Pats and Jets Current Strength of Victory

Dolphins – 38.46% (40-64) Jets – 45.19 (47-56-1) Pats - 39.42 (41-63)

Tie Breaking Rules TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined. Two Clubs 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5. Strength of victory. 6. Strength of schedule. 7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 9. Best net points in common games. 10. Best net points in all games. 11. Best net touchdowns in all games. 12. Coin toss Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format). 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs). 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5. Strength of victory. 6. Strength of schedule. 7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 9. Best net points in common games. 10. Best net points in all games. 11. Best net touchdowns in all games. 12. Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken. 1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker. 2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs 1. Head-to-head, if applicable. 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. 4. Strength of victory. 5. Strength of schedule. 6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best net points in conference games. 9. Best net points in all games. 10. Best net touchdowns in all games. 11. Coin toss. Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. 5. Strength of victory. 6. Strength of schedule. 7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 9. Best net points in conference games. 10. Best net points in all games. 11. Best net touchdowns in all games. 12. Coin toss When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

Q1. By now we all know that if the Fins win their last 3 games, we win the Division. What happens if we don’t win all 3 games? What is the outlook then? What would we need to happen in order to win the division or get a wildcard birth?

A1: Depends which game we lose.

Scenario A - Obviously for the Fins, if we are going to lose 1 game we would want it to be against the 49ers, because it would not impact either our Division or Conference record, which are both key tiebreakers, however it would impact our common games tiebreaker which is more important than the Conference record for in-division tie breakers. So lets say we lose to the 49ers. Obviously then we would need the Jets and the Patriots to each lose 1 game. If the Dolphins beat the Jets on 12/28 that would take care of the Jets loss we would need in order for them to be 10-6 along with us. They would also be 4-2 in the division along with us and maybe the Patriots, which would be the 2nd tiebreaker. In a three way tie at 10-6 and 4-2 division record between the fins, jets, and patriots, the Jets at that point would be only 6-4 in games against Common opponents, which is the 3rd tiebreaker, while we would be 8-2 and the Patriots also be 8-2 (more on that later). Therefore the jets would be kicked out of the 3 way tiebreaker and the tiebreakers for a 2 team tiebreaker would apply between the dolphins and pats. As for the Patriots we would win the tiebreaker against them and it wouldn’t matter who they lost too, as long as they lost 1 game. This is because their 3 remaining games are either against a common opponent or a division opponent. The first tiebreaker against them after the Jets are kicked out of the 3 way tiebreaker would be head to head which is 1-1, so then we have to go to the 2nd tiebreaker which would be division and at best their division record could be 4-2, so the third tiebreaker would be common opponents. If they lose to either Oak or AZ then their common opponent record would be 9-3 the same as us so we would go to the 4th tiebreak, conference record..They already have 5 Conference losses, so we would have the conference record tiebreaker against them since we would only have 4. If however they beat AZ and Oak, but lose to the Bills under the three way tiebreaker their division record would only be 3-3 and they would be kicked out of the 3 way tiebreaker under step 2 and then we would beat the jets under the 2 team tiebreaker on common opponents record. .

So in summary of Scenario A, to win the division we can afford to lose to the 49ers as long as the Patriots lose 1 game. I think there is a 30% chance they could lose the Oakland game, a 50% chance they lose to AZ, and a 40% chance they lose at Buffalo in the season finale.

If the Patriots don’t lose a game under Scenario A they would win the division and we would be left hoping for a wildcard at 10-6, which would be very unlikely. Baltimore has the head to head tie breaker against us, meaning they would have to finish 9-7, which means they would have to lose all 3 of their remaining games. They do have to play Dallas and Pitt, but they end the season at home against the Jaguars, a very likely win for them. So it is very likely Balt would finish at least 10-6 and go in to the playoffs ahead of us. As for the Colts, we would lose a tiebreaker to them too. obviously we did not play them this year. So there is no Head to Head to look at. So we look at the conference record as the 2nd tiebreaker. Currently they are 8-2 while we are 6-4. That means if they are to go 10-6 they would have to lose 2 games and the Dolphins would need both those games to be against AFC teams in order for both the Colts and Dolphins to both have a 8-4 Conference record. That means they would have to lose at Jacksonville and home to Tennessee (season finale, Tenn may rest players with 1 seed locked up) just for us to be tied with them for the conference record. If they lose to the Lions and 1 AFC team and end up 10-6 along with us, we would lose the wildcard tiebreak. Even if the Colts lose to Jacksonville and Tenn and end up with the same 10-6 record we would go to the next tiebreaker which would be common games The Colts have played SD, NE, Balt, and Houston (x2) and are 5-0 in those games. We’ve lost to Houston, and Baltimore and NE once. So the Colts would win that tiebreaker. That means in order to get ahead of the Colts in the Wildcard chase, they would have to lose all 3 games remaining. Very unlikely for obvious reasons. There is one other possibility to consider. If the Steelers lose all three of their remaining games, Baltimore would win the division and the Steelers would be tied with Miami at 10-6. Under that scenario, Both the Dolphins and Steelers would also be 8-4 in Conference. However we would again lose the common games tiebreak. Pitt has beat Bal, SD, NE, and Houston so far. Even by losing the 2nd game against Balt they would be 4-1 in games against common opponents.

Looks like it is Division Champs or Bust!!!

Scenario B is a little different. Under this scenario we beat the 49ers, lose at KC, but beat the Jets in the season finale (and the Jets win all their games except season finale).

Under this scenario we would still win the division tiebreakers against the Jets. We would be tied head to head at 1-1 and Both our division records would be 4-2. We would still win the common opponent tiebreaker though because the jets would be 7-5 and we would be 9-3. However, the KC loss would seriously impact us in the tiebreaker against the Pats. At a minimum we would need the Patriots to lose 1 of their three remaining games, but which game they lose becomes important. The best case scenario for the Dolphins would be to lose against the Bills because we would win the division record tiebreaker scenario (fins 4-2, jets 4-2, pats 3-3). However assuming they beat the Bills, then as above in Scenario A, the Jets would be kicked out of the three way tiebreaker due to a weak common opponent record. Then the rules of a two team tie breaker would come into play between Pats Fins. Same record, same division record. The third tie breaker scenario would be tied also, because we lost to the chiefs our common opponent record would be 9-3, same as the Patriots. That means we go to the 4th scenario, which would be conference record. If the Patriots lose to the Raiders, then we would win the 4th Tiebreaker because their conference record would be 6-6. Miami would be 7-5. Miami wins the division. However if the pats beat Oak and lose to the Cardinals things become sticky. We would go to the 5th tie breakers – Strength of victory. As you can see above the Pats currently have a miniscule edge is strength of victory by 1 game. But will we have the edge of the end of the season? We beat San Fran, lose to KC, and beat Jets. Our Strength of Victory would be (using todays records) 40.76% (53-77). If the pats beat the raiders and bills and lose to the Cards, then their Strength of Victory would be 38.46% (50-80). Current edge goes to Miami by three games.

This is where it gets very interesting. Obviously the Strength of Victory will change between now and the end of the season, because some of the teams we beat may win games while some of the teams NE beat may lose games. Or vice versa. However, Miami and NE share many of the same opponents and many of the same victories! The common opponents we both beat would be Buffalo twice the jets once, seattle, Oakland, St. Louis, San Fran, Denver (equals 8 wins each) That means for every one of the games these teams win, we would both get a victory in our Strength of Victory calculation, so these teams winning wont have much of an impact. The one difference would be that NE would have beaten Kansas City, and Miami would have beaten San Diego. (the other victory for each team to make us both 10-6 would have been against each other, and since we both finish 10-6 we negate each other). That means in order for NE to catchus on Strength of victory by years end KC will have to win all of their games and San Diego lose all of their games. Wouldn’t you know how fate works. KC’s last 3 games are vs. SD, vs. Miami, and at Cincy, all three winnable games. San Diego’s last three games are at KC, at TB and home vs. Denver all three very losable games! Holy Shit. The 5th tie breaker – Strenght of Victory - would be tied as well! The 6th Tie breaker would be Strength of Schedule. The Pats and Dolphins each have 12 Common opponents. Bills twice, jets twice, AZ, ST. Louis, Seattle, San Fran, Denver, Oak, KC, and San Diego. So those 12 games would negate each other for SoS purposes. The two differences in schedules would be Fins played Baltimore and Houston, While NE played Pittsburgh and Indy. Currently Pittsburgh and indy have better records than both Baltimore and Houston. Pitt and Indy are a combined 19-7, while Baltimore and Houston are 15-11, with 6 games left to be played That means Pitt and Indy would have to go 2-4 while Baltimore and Houston would have to go 6-0 just to tie up this tiebreaker with NE. Very unlikely especially when you look at these teams remaining schedules. Therefore, we better hope we win the 5th Tiebreaker, cause the 6th one doesn’t look good for us. So, pray for San Diego to beat KC this week.

So, to conclude Scenario B, If we lose to K.C. then we need NE to lose to Oak or Buffalo. If they lose to the Cardinals then we need the Chiefs to lose one of their last three games or SD to win one of their last three games, or Pittsburgh and Indy to completely fall apart over the last 6 games. Holy shit that was complicated.

Scenario C – We beat San Fran and KC, but lose to the Jets. Under this scenario, the Jets would have to lose both at home to Buffalo and at Seattle in order for us to win the division because otherwise they would be 10-6 and have the season sweep against us and a better division record. We would finish 10-6, they would be 9-7. We would also need NE to lose either to Buffalo or to both Oak and AZ. If they lost to both Oak and AZ then they would finish 9-7 and we would be 10-6. If they lost to Buffalo, but beat Oak an AZ then we would both be 10-6 and 3-3 in the division. So we would go to the tiebreakers again. As noted, same record, same head to head and same division record. Tiebreaker 3 would be common games. We would both be 9-3 in common games. 4th Tiebreaker is Conference Record. We would win this tiebreaker because we would be 7-5 in Conference play, while the Pats would be 6-6.

As for the Wildcard under scenario C, as in the other scenarios, the Colts and Baltimore have significant advantages over us in the Wildcard chase and the fact that we lost to the Jets instead of the 49ers or Chiefs has little impact on that. We would lose out to tiebreakers as described above. So in Conclusion, it is possible for us to win the division even if we lose at the Jets in the season finale, but to do so we would need the jets to blow their next two games and the Patriots to lose to either Buffalo or to both Oak and AZ.

Scenario D – Miami loses both at home vs. San Fran and at K.C. but wins at the Jets Under this scenario we would finish 9-7. Obviously we would need the Jets and Pats to finish 9-7 or worse for us to have a chance at the division. If the Jets or Pats win 2 or their last three (for the Jets that would mean beating Buffalo and Seattle) then they would be 10-6 and win the division. Conversely,if the jets and Pats both lose their final 3 games and finished 8-8 each, we would win the division at 9-7. But what if all three of us finished 9-7, then what? Both NE’s and the Jets one win would have to be against Buffalo. Even if they finish 9-7, but lost to the Bills they would be out under Scenario D because they would each have a 3-3 division record while Miami would have a 4-2 record. So if either or both teams lost to Buffalo and finished 9-7 (with the Jets also losing to Miami), the team losing to Buffalo would be out because they would only be 3-3 in the division.

Scenario D(i) Lets say all three finish 9-7, but the Pats lost to Buffalo while the Jets beat Buffalo. It would then go to a 2 team tie breaker vs. the Fins and Jets and Miami would win based on the common opponents tie breaker with an 8-4 record vs. 6-6 for the Jets, regardless of who their other loss was (either Seattle or Buffalo) because common opponents is the third tiebreaker. Miami would win the division.

Scenario D(ii) Lets say all three finish 9-7, but the Pats beat Buffalo and the Jets lost to Buffalo. Jets are out based on 3-3 division record. Miami and Pats go to 2 team tiebreaker. Common opponents record would be tied at 8-4 each. Tiebreaker 5 - conference record -We would win with a 7-5 conference record, while the Pats would have 6-6 conference record.

Scenario D(iii) Lets say all three finish 9-7, and the Pats and Jets both beat buffalo. We would all be 4-2 in the division and you would apply 3 way tie breaker. Step 3 would be common games record. Here Miami and NE would be 7-3 and the Jets would be 5-5, so they would be out. Then you go to the 2 team tiebreaker. Tied for head to head, tied for division, tied for common opponents (at 8-4), but Miami would win Conference tie breaker at 7-5 vs. 6-6

For Wildcard purposes under Scenario D, the worst the Colts and Ravens could finish would be 9-7 and they would still win the tiebreakers vs us due to head to head (for the Ravens) and common games for the Colts. So no wildcard at 9-7. So, in conclusion, under scenario D, we could win the division despite losing to the 49ers and Chiefs, but it will require the Jets and Patriots to be 9-7 too. The good news though, is that we win all the tiebreakers if the Jets and Pats also finish 9-7 and Miami beats the Jets.

Scenario E – Miami loses to KC and the Jets, but beats the 49ers. Here we would be 9-7. However we would have a 3-3 division record while the Jets, even if they lost their other 2 games and finished 9-7 would have a 4-2 division record. We would lose any tiebreaker to them. NE could tie the Jets division record, but I don’t care about that and am not going to analyze what would happen.

Conclusion – Miami cannot afford to lose at the Jets and to KC.

Scenario F- Miami loses to SF and the Jets, but beats the Chiefs. Same as Scenario E – our 3-3 division record would lose out to the Jets.

Overall Conclusions, Its Division Champs or Bust. The Jets game is obviously the key. We can still win the division if we lose to KC and San Fran, but it would be tough. The good news is, we have the tiebreakers vs the Jets and Pats, but we don’t have them for the Wildcard. The craziest scenario is tying with NE at 10-6 and having to go to the 6th tiebreaker. Crazy!!!!!!!!

Q2. If Miami wins all 3 of their games and the division what will be their seed?

 A2: Miami would be 11-5. At this point the worst the Titans could do is 12-4, so they will be higher than us no matter what. Denver is 8-5 and on the way to winning the West, but they lost to us so if we both ended up 11-5, we would be at least the 3 seed based on head to head. Denver would be the 4. But is it possible to catch the 2 seed? It is remotely. If Baltimore wins the division then we would need them to be 10-6, cause if they are 11-5 or better they win the 2 seed based on their victory over us. If Pittsburgh wins the division and is 11-5 they also would win the tiebreaker with us, because that will mean they have won 9 conference games while the best we could do would be 8. So in order for us to win the 2 seed, Pitt or Balt would have to win the division with a 10-6 record, which would mean Pitt lose its 3 remaining games and Balt win only 1 game against Pittsbugh, while losing their other two game. Very remote.

 Q3. Could Miami win the Division and be the 4 seed?

A3. Yes. If Miami goes 10-6 wins the division and Denver wins out, they would be 11-5 and be the 3 seed. Funny enough, personally, I think I might rather play Tennesse rather than at Pittsburgh or at Baltimore.

Q4. Miami wins the division who would we most likely play?

A4. If we win the division and become the 3 seed we would play the 6 seed. Right now indy and Baltimore are both ties at 9-4 for the last two wildcard spots. Indy ahs the head to head over them so they would be the 5 and Baltimore would be the 6. Indy has an easy schedule compared to Baltimore. Indy also has the Head to head over the Steelers, so if the Ravens should overtake and win the North division Pittsburgh would most likely be the 6 seed. Personally, of all three team, I think I would most like to host the Colts. I think we match up best against them. I think it would be a high scoring game, but one we could win. I would be scared of the Balt or Steelers defense coming to Miami. Baltimore dominated us earlier this year.

Well there you have it! Go fins!!!

Should be a wild ride! I think I will go put my brain on ice for a while.