Statistics on the Phins chances to make the playoffs

by BeaNXIII on Dec 3, 2008 9:08 PM EST Comment 23 comments

Hey Phin Fans,

My best friend, a Cowboys fan, is pretty good with computers and made a program to simulate the odds of NFL teams chances to make the playoffs. I thought the simulation was pretty interesting (and watched him work on it), and he posted it over at Bloggintheboys.com. So I asked him is I could take it over to us Phin Fans and he said sure. Ask me any questions, and I will redirect them back to him because he is the expert:

Below are the chances that each team will make the playoffs this year...this is update after week 13:

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.0151333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 1.51036666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.5047666667%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8257%
Chance to win the division           -- 98.4896333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.33606666667%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 8.32943333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.32943333333%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.7816666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.7816666667%

NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 24.8387%
Chance to win the division           -- 23.9715666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.867133333333%

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.0701%
Chance to win the division           -- 10.0405%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0296%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 66.5333%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.9879333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.545366666667%

NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 51.4987666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 11.4459%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.0528666667%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 84.3858666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.5837333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 50.8021333333%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 4.0315%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0269%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.0046%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.6898333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 54.9434666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 35.7463666667%

NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 9.0982%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.16446666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.93373333333%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 28.4637%
Chance to win the division           -- 20.4486666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.01503333333%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 26.4199333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.4054%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.0145333333%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 70.2213666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 60.9814666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 9.2399%

AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.9370666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 26.9917%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 55.9453666667%

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.00146666666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.00146666666667%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.498%
Chance to win the division           -- 73.0083%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 24.4897%

AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.264633333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.264633333333%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 85.0879333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.91933333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 81.1686%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- .0000333333333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- .0000333333333333%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9961333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 96.0806666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.91546666667%

AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 5.45053333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.439%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0115333333333%

Eliminated Teams: Bengals, Cheifs, Lions, Rams, Seahawks

This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.

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Comments

That would be me...

I am the Dallas fan that actually wrote this simulation. I hope you all enjoy it.
Good luck making the playoffs.

by ender0887 on Dec 3, 2008 9:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks man....same too you....the boys are fun to watch

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 3, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Statistics

63% of all statistics are meaningless

Frequently wrong, but never in doubt.
Phyrmun

by phyrmun on Dec 3, 2008 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pretty neat

wow, this is pretty neat.

but what are the percentages based on? are thy based on vegas odds? are they based on each team having a 50/50 shot at winning each game? or maybe like a 70% chance of winning a home game and a 30% chance of winning a road game?

by smirish on Dec 3, 2008 10:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just assumed...

that each game has a random winner, giving each team a 50% chance to win each time. I know that this is not always true, but I believe it outputs the most relevant odds considering it will encompass more possible ways that the remaining games can be played out.

by ender0887 on Dec 4, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

65% of the time Black Sex Panther works everytime

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 3, 2008 10:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

very true

i know from experience if you know what i mean

by dolfanstanley on Dec 3, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats the same movie that came to mind for my rzayo!!

I love that man… no homo

by jwillis9 on Dec 3, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that doesn't make any sense

Winner of All Movie Quote Challenges

by DolfinPhan on Dec 5, 2008 2:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all kidding aside

nicely done…..great writeup…..but numbers dont tell all….i believe in momentum….how ur playing now….and character guys who play big when the season grows older

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 3, 2008 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yep

6 of one and half dozen of another

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Dec 3, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not based on vegas odds...

if it was, the chances to win the division would be 11.7% not 20…
we are 8.5:1 according to vegas to win the AFC east

by YatilGinnJr on Dec 3, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't making playoffs and winning division be the same thing?

Also Wildcard and making playoffs same?

Who are these polesmokers???

"If my first child is a boy his name will now be "Chad". In the event my first child is a girl her name will be "Pennington".-Rzayo 24

by rangerjae on Dec 4, 2008 12:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

Chance to win the division is added to chance to win the wildcard to come up with the “Overall chance to make playoffs” since those are the only 2 ways to get in. Making the playoffs and winning the division aren’t the same thing, because you can get in the playoffs WITHOUT winning your division.

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 4, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really? Has that ever happened?

I know we have some people here who can look up stats…maybe I’ll try

"If my first child is a boy his name will now be "Chad". In the event my first child is a girl her name will be "Pennington".-Rzayo 24

by rangerjae on Dec 4, 2008 7:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Its early I thought you said...

You can win the division but not the playoffs

God Im a freakin stoner!!!! Sorry

"If my first child is a boy his name will now be "Chad". In the event my first child is a girl her name will be "Pennington".-Rzayo 24

by rangerjae on Dec 4, 2008 7:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

don’t worry about it… I had to go back and check and make sure I wrote it right..

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 4, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I sincerely think that in common sense statistics our possibilities of winning the division would be NO LESS THAN 50%

by MauMontaV5 on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

More info...

If I recall correctly the way he programmed the system was to run the simulation
500,000 times or so. So the current team records are all programmed into the computer; however the remaining games are simmed by chance (meaning that no statistics take place in simulated the last four games)…basically following the rule of “Any given sunday”. But I will run it by him the next time I talk to him.

by BeaNXIII on Dec 4, 2008 12:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's correct...

Except I ran this simulation 3 million times, to try and get as many possible outcomes to the season as possible.
Considering that there are 4 weeks left, with 16 games per week, and two possible teams that can win each game, there are 264 (or 1.84467441 × 1019) different possible ways that the remaining games can be played out. If I tried to run the simulation that many times, it would take days to complete.

by ender0887 on Dec 4, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs