Dolphins vs Chiefs: Miami's Keys To Victory

by Matty I on Dec 19, 2008 12:15 AM EST in News Comment 46 comments

Because the past few seasons have been so bad in Miami, I've forgotten how much I love big late-season football games. And that's exactly what Sunday's game at Arrowhead Stadium is - despite the Chiefs dismal record.

And so I present for discussion some keys to victory for the Dolphins. Keep in mind, though, that these are just a few. Be sure to add in anything I missed below in the comments.

Deal with the weather.
Yes, it's going to be nasty out. The Weather Channel is now saying the high for Sunday in KC will be 16 degrees with 23 mph wind. Factoring in the wind chill, it could very well feel like below zero outside. And if the game-time temperature is indeed 16 degrees, it would officially be the coldest game the Miami Dolphins have ever played in.

But here's the thing. Both teams have to play in this weather. So as much as the media wants to talk about how much of a disadvantage the weather is going to be, there aren't likely many players on either team who has played in a game that was as cold as it potentially might be on Sunday.

And while Chad Pennington has played one game in his NFL career in which the temperature was below 20 degrees - going 25/35 (71%) for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions back in 2006 in a win over the Packers in Green Bay - Kansas City's starting QB doesn't have any experience in these conditions.

More importantly, though, is how each QB will handle the wind more so than the cold. In games described as "windy," Pennington has an 83.1 QB rating - completing 62.3% of his passes, throwing 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 35 games. Thigpen, meanwhile, has a rating of 78 - completing 57% of his passes, throwing 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 4 games.

For Chad Pennington and the Dolphins, an effective short passing game will be important.

Force Tyler Thigpen to pass.
IT goes without saying that the Dolphins will want to run the ball effectively on Sunday. "Pound the rock" has been the war-cry all week here in our little community. But even more important than Miami's ability to run the ball will be Miami's ability to stop the run.

Larry Johnson is still a talented running back - despite what some people might think. But if you have watched KC play the last 3 weeks, you know that he doesn't look like the same LJ. He's only averaging 61 yards per game on the ground over the team's last 3 games. And his 3.5 yards per carry average over that span is almost a full yard lower than his season average. But you can bet the Chiefs will attempt to get LJ back on track this week due to the poor passing conditions that this game is likely to be played in.

For the Dolphins, stopping Johnson is priority #1 on defense. And while the Fins' 3.9 ypc against on the season is good for 10th best in the NFL, this defense has been hot and cold against the run. Three weeks ago, they let a rusty Steven Jackson gain 94 yards on the ground, averaging 4.5 ypc. The following week, they held Marshawn Lynch to just 31 yards on 13 carries. But then last week, 49er backup RB DeShaun Foster, filling in for the injured Frank Gore, ran for 76 yards on just 18 carries (4.2 ypc).

If the Dolphins let LJ run the ball as well as Jackson or Foster, then they will let KC remain in this game.

The best way to force Thigpen to pass the ball? Contain Johnson on 1st down. This season, Johnson is averaging 4.2 yards per carry on 1st down. If the Dolphins let LJ gain 4 yards consistently on 1st down, this game is going to be too close for comfort. But if the Fins can contain LJ on first down and keep the Chiefs in 2nd & long situations, they will force the young Thigpen to have to make plays down the field in less than ideal weather conditions.

Defense must get off the field.
It was really amazing that the Dolphins were able to win last week despite holding the ball for 17 few minutes than the 49ers. And while some will say that the time of possession differential was caused by the Dolphins' lack of a running game, I would disagree and argue another point.

The one common denominator in Miami's 3 close wins over "sub-par teams" (Oakland, Seattle, SF) was the inability for the Dolphins' defense to get off the field. Sure, they intercepted Marc Bulger 3 times. But in the other two games, the Dolphins created no turnovers. Worse yet, however, was Miami's inability to stop the opposing offense on 3rd down - which is very worrisome when you consider that none of the 3 teams really possess explosive offenses. In those 3 games, Miami's opponents converted on 48% (22/46) of their 3rd downs. That's totally unacceptable and well above this defense's season average of 37%.

So as this game unfolds, be sure to pay close attention to how effective the Chiefs' offense is on 3rd down.

Other Things To Watch For:

-Will the Dolphins try to run the ball between the tackles or stick more to the outside? Last week, the Fins rarely ran it inside - probably because of the injuries to their guards. Will the coaches be comfortable enough to try some inside handoffs this week?

-Will the receivers show up this week? Against the Niners last week, Davone Bess and Ted Ginn combined for just 5 catches and 31 yards. More productivity is needed from this group.

-Will the height of KC's pass catchers be a problem for Miami's secondary? The team's 3 leading receivers (Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe, and Mark Bradley) are big targets. Gonzalez is 6'5 and both Bowe and Bradley are 6'2. Match-up problems could arise for the Fins.

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Comments

get this -

current temperatures in K.C.= 34 degrees..light winds.. with some showers (yes..that’s RAIN!)…

Friday 34 with a low of 26 and cloudy..

Saturday.. “windy” and 32 with a low of 8 (yep, big dropoff)
and….

Saturday.. “windy” and 32 with a low of 8 (yep, big dropoff)
and….SUNDAY= “windy” and 12 degrees and a low of 6 degree.. significant winds/windchill

Saturday.. “windy” and 32 with a low of 8 (yep, big dropoff)
and….SUNDAY= “windy” and 12 degrees and a low of 6 degree.. significant winds/windchilland then of course on Monday..it starts going back up.. 26 and low of 21 – party sunny, low wind..can you believe this! weather as of right now is…“balmy” (for K.C. right now) and rain/mild.. and then in a couple short days.. it (is supposed to) drop dramatically to get very cold with windchill and wind to content with… go figure!I hope this is wrong or not entirely accurate…heck, it’s the weather and a lot can change.. but don’t be surprised if it’s pretty close to these conditions.. not the greatest for Pennington..so let’s PTR (for real!)..and hope for the best

by dolphinsfan4life on Dec 19, 2008 12:40 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

is there an echo in the building??

The Phinsider: SBN's Miami Dolphins blog

by Matty I on Dec 19, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is there an echo in the building??

by smirish on Dec 19, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

in the building??

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 19, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the building

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 19, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the building

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 19, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

building...

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 19, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shut the &%$# up!!!

[new york echo]

"I'm not near as deep and complicated as people think" ~Mike Tyson~

by Krab on Dec 19, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Dec 19, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LMAO

That was good guys.

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Dec 19, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL KICKING AND SCREAMING QUOTE...

“SHUTUP OUT THERE…”

“NO…YOU SHUT UP IN THERE!!!!!”

“BAY AT THE MOON!!”

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 19, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rzayo bud.......

not sure if your vision is going, or what……but your all caps key is stuck again…….just an fyi fromm your friendly Husker guy

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Dec 19, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

his keyboard is sticky

too many StergerBurgers I guess..

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 19, 2008 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL WOW

thats just nasty……..

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Dec 19, 2008 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

really need the “Are You Sure” feature… lol

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 19, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what the balls was that?

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dude i have no lol idea

Winner of All Movie Quote Challenges

by DolfinPhan on Dec 19, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's doing the damn "doubling" messages again...

what’s up with that?

anyone know why this happens sometimes?
Matty?

by dolphinsfan4life on Dec 19, 2008 12:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not sure

The Phinsider: SBN's Miami Dolphins blog

by Matty I on Dec 19, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

can someone answer this.. (sorry, a bit off topic)

what is up with (most) sports casters/analysts/experts still picking New England to win the division!? This is sickening.. Out of the three teams tied for first in the division (us, Jets, N.E.) – Miami and New York contol their own destiny… New England doesn’t even control their own destiny! They can win out and if both Miami and New York don’t lose at least one game each..they don’t win the division!! Yet, most are still picking them to win it! Ridiculous…that’s all I can say.. if Balt loses one (which is very possible) and N.E. wins out, then they’ll get in as a wildcard but as for the division, they are still somewhat of a longshot at this point.. but not in the eyes of most alleged “experts”.. whatever…

by dolphinsfan4life on Dec 19, 2008 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Because nobody has put them away

…it’s the Pats, whether we like it or not. In the minds of many, Bill Belichick winning the division at this stage is as big a story as Miami winning it. As long as NE stays in contention, media will kiss their ass. Personally, I hate the Pats and any media outlet that glorifies them is usually turned off before the ass kissing begins.

"That's never going to heal if you don't stop picking"

by mikem1224 on Dec 19, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

experst

the experst also picked SD to go to the Super Bowl. the experts also picked miami to win 4-5 games. they experts dont know anything.

by smirish on Dec 19, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guys did you know Parcells drafted Chad back in 2000 ?

Pretty cool stat, hadn´t heard it on the site

by MauMontaV5 on Dec 19, 2008 1:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

actually didnt know that....and im ashamed

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I say the key to victory is scoring more points than the Chiefs!

"Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat." - Theodore Roosevelt

by Daniel52 on Dec 19, 2008 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha

good call, i’m with you on that one

-I did what last night?
-no, i didnt!!!
-I DID?!?!
-SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!!

by MiamihastheDolphins.... on Dec 19, 2008 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here, here! i agree...that's always my sarcastic answer!

as long as we have more points on the scoreboard then the other team when the game is over.. we’ll win! :)

by dolphinsfan4life on Dec 19, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one huge key

will be field position in those terrible condition…luckily for us fields has been dominating for us dropping that ball inside the 20

here’s hoping he keeps it up

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Dec 19, 2008 7:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I got a question...

Can Miami still make the post season if they lose to Jets or Chiefs ?

by sportssaga on Dec 19, 2008 8:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes...but highly unlikely

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We are NOT going to loss ANY game..

Take that though out of your mind!!

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 19, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't you mean to say....

Can the Jests still make it when they lose this week? Answer: Nah.

As for your question, Miami has to win this week first! Assuming the Jests also win this week, as well as the Pats – then the winner (Miami) of the final game also wins the division, the loser falls to 3rd place behind NE.

NE needs to win out, and for Miami and the Jests to each lose once to win the division. If that doesn’t happen, and it won’t, then they need the Ravens to lose once to qualify for a wildcard.

"That's never going to heal if you don't stop picking"

by mikem1224 on Dec 19, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

its not that unlikely

we can lose to KC but then we need to beat the Jets and have NE lose at least 1 game, doesnt matter which one. If we win at KC and lose to the Jets, we lose the division.

Miami cannot win a wildcard spot.

by smirish on Dec 19, 2008 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well technically we can win a wildcard

but we need both NE and Baltimore to lose their last two, and we need to beat the Chiefs.

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 19, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Win and Freak the Jets

If we can somehow beat the Chiefs in that nasty weather, the Stinkin Jets are going to freak out, as their supposed cold weather advantage goes out the damn window.

by nyfishfan on Dec 19, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The stinking propellers ARE..

already sh**ing there pans ; )
They never though we would be the ones, at the end of the road, that will advenge that ridiculous loss and the begining of the season, and left them out of the playoff!

Those who laugh at the end, have a better laugh!

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 19, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

shocked

I am shocked to hear that 16 degrees would be a record low for a fins game. all those trips to Buffalo and NE and NY in December and 16 would be the low?

by smirish on Dec 19, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ehh weather?

Don’t really think the weather’s going to be a major factor. I mean yeah sixteen degrees is pretty damn cold for any team, not just a team from south Florida, but we have CP10 as the orchestrator to our offensive, he’s been a part of some pretty cold games in the Meadowlands, and from what I’ve read he’s played pretty well in them. Then you look at defense and Peez playing in Pittsburgh for so many years, I don’t think it should bother him much. If you’re playing football in the pros weather shouldn’t be a factor to me. We contain Gonzalez, and win the time of possesion I think we win. Great read as usual Matty! CP10 for MVP!!!!

"Meet the Bretts, Greet the Bretts, step right up and beat the Bretts"

by PhinsFanInJetLand on Dec 19, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hope its that warm........lol

Just looked up the weather for Arrowhead itself, 9 degrees, and when you factor in the windchill? Man o man……its gonna be so cold, the guys aren’t going to need a cup for their junk. They’ll have a shrinkage factor that puts a Roseanne Barr sextape to shame. I do think and in my heart feel that, the team will be ready thanks to one Coach Sparano.

We’ve got to not only force Thigpen to throw, but, we’ve got to sack his ass and put preasure on him when he tries. I think the Chiefs are going to come out firing with their pass attack using short, west coast style passing plays hoping for some yac’s.

If we keep playing the same smart football that got us to this point, I feel we can get the win, regardless of the colder than a eskimo well diggers ass weather.

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Dec 19, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

They’ll have a shrinkage factor that puts a Roseanne Barr sextape to shame.

that’s a good way to put it!

The Phinsider: SBN's Miami Dolphins blog

by Matty I on Dec 19, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Roseanne Barr gives me shrinkage

ride and die dolphin fan

by phinfan on Dec 20, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D off the field and big receivers

D cannot rely on bend don’t break philosophy again precisely because of the competent big KC receivers. They will break our secondary if we give them multiple chances. I agree with Matty there.

Disagree about the weather. Sure both teams have to play in it, but the Chiefs have been living in it all winter, we are just visiting. When Chad beat Packers, he was a Jet living in cold weather conditions. Now he is not. As a person who moved from Lexington Ky to Las Vegas, I know your blood thins out in the warmer weather, and cold feels even colder.

That being said, I am so pumped for this game. I have had NFL ticket for last 2 years and watched every miserable Dolphins game. I am glad to be a part of the community of Phinsiders, even though I do not post much, and reading everyone’s thoughts about the games. Sharing out love (eeewww) makes the games, and the days in between, that much sweeter.

by Sparcells on Dec 19, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stop LJ!

without a good running game, KC will have to rely on the pass in the bad weather, like you said Matty. But that will help our D incredibly because Porter and Co. can just pin their ears back and go after Thigpen, we can dictate things to KC by blitzing off the edge and in the middle, because we KNOW they have to pass. And we can drop guys into coverage and not worry about keeping an extra man in the box. If we can put them into guaranteed passing downs, we’ll have a better chance of picking a good defense and getting the sack or turnover.

I’m really hoping we get a good game out of YBell. I have a feeling he’s gonna be matched up with Gonzalez much of the game, so he needs to really get physical and stay in TG’s face all day. If we take away Gonzalez early in the play, we could force Thigpen to look elsewhere, panic, and take sacks or throw balls into coverage. Everyone knows that TG is his favorite target, so shut it down and make him go to somebody else.

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 19, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed Nicky

As long as LJ and TG are shut down I think we come away with the win no question. No run means Thigpen goes to TG, and when he’s doubled up, Thig will panic and he’s bound to lob a few up in the air. Bell could use another big game.

Thats what she said??

by PhinsFanInJetLand on Dec 19, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Overlooked?

Ok, So I’m reading this And I can’t help but think that people are already planning for the playoffs. Thats probably the worse thing you as fans and even worse players could do. The chiefs are playing with one hell of a chip on the shoulder right now. I would batten down the hatches and prepare for one hell of a game. Since the firing of king carl peterson, theres a renewed faith from the fans here. I wouldn’t doubt if arrowhead wasn’t sold out this week end and your going to see an atmosphere your not expecting. I’m not saying you’ll lose,I’m just saying be very careful about over confidence, it has a way of bitting you in the butt. The match up at wide reciever is were the phins are going to be lit up alot. You’ve not got one Cb or saftey that comes within 4 inches of are shortest receiver. No doubt this is going to be a good one. As far as thigpen goes, Hell of a weird name but you guys will see this sunday this guy has talent.

by chiefwes on Dec 20, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You obviously didn't read all the comments

or the majority of the comments on this site, talking about this game and this game only. But nice try. We’re not overlooking KC. This IS a playoff game for us, so don’t think for a second that our team won’t come into Arrowhead completely focused and ready to go.

You guys can have a million chips on your shoulders, our team has just as many, and don’t think for one second that our guys are gonna come out flat and be intimidated by weather or a loud crowd. Be prepared for an ass-whooping and another week closer to Herm’s firing and a complete rebuild. Good luck in the draft my man.

by Little Nicky 21 on Dec 20, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs