Breaking Down the DPOY Award: Can Joey Porter win it?

by Matty I on Nov 5, 2008 12:15 AM EST in News Comment 9 comments

We are at the midway point of the season and now is a good time to really take a step back and look at if Joey Porter can indeed become the 2nd Dolphin to win the Defensive Player of the Year award in 3 years.

To do this, we're going to have to crunch the numbers. Now I know that players impact football games in more ways than numbers can show. For example, all of Joey Porter's countless QB hurries - some of which resulted in interceptions - won't be accounted for here. But the fact of the matter is that the people who vote on the award are journalists who, more or less, are simply looking at numbers. They haven't watched every snap for every potential award winner. They just look at the top candidates statistics and then cast their vote.

So that's how we're going to look at it.

Now, if you were a reader of this site back in 2006, you'd know that I used a formula which I created called the Impact Plays Index (IPI) to break down Jason Taylor's chance at winning the award. You can see how I created the formula by reading this post. And you can see, based on the final results of my breakdown, that this formula was pretty damn accurate in terms of how the final voting results broke down.

So let's get onto the breakdown itself.

So the first thing to do is narrow the list to a top 15 or so. And that is what I did by taking into account numerous factors. Below are the top 15 DPOY candidates (in no particular order), at least at this point, and there key statistics:

Player	Tkls	Scks	Ints	TDs	PDs	FFs	FRs	TFLs	Blk
Joey Porter	30	11.5	0	0	1	3	1	2	0
Kris Jenkins	27	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	1
Justin Tuck	36	8.5	1	1	1	2	0	3.5	1
Terrell Suggs	35	5	2	2	5	1	0	6.5	0
Albert Haynesworth	29	6	0	0	2	1	0	3.5	0
Barrett Ruud	71	2	2	0	5	0	1	2	0
James Harrison	51	10	0	0	2	3	0	1.5	0
Charles Woodson	21	1	4	2	12	0	0	0.5	0
London Fletcher	75	0	0	0	4	1	0	2.5	0
John Abraham	23	10	0	0	0	3	0	2	1
DeMarcus Ware	49	10	0	0	1	2	1	4	0
LaMarr Woodley	37	9.5	1	1	1	2	3	2	0
Cortland Finnegan	43	0	4	1	12	0	0	1.5	0
Patrick Willis	71	1	1	1	8	0	1	3	0
Shaun Rogers	45	5	0	0	0	0	0	4.5	1

So now let's break this down and see what the Impact Plays Index says about these 15 potential DPOY candidates:

Player	IPI	Player	IPI
1. T. Suggs	65	9. J. Porter	50.5
2. L. Woodley	63.5	10. C. Woodson	49.5
2. P. Willis	63.5	11. L. Fletcher	48
4. D. Ware	59.5	12. S. Rogers	44.5
5. B. Ruud	57.5	13. J. Abraham	43
6. J. Tuck	55	14. A. Haynesworth	37
6. J. Harrison	55	15. K. Jenkins	24.5
8. C. Finnegan	54.5

As you can see above, Porter has some work to do - statistically speaking - if he wants to win that DPOY award. I know the argument can and will be made that Porter has done so much more than just what the stats show - and I agree 100%. But like I said, these people who vote on the award don't know nearly as much about each player and their particular situation as they should. And when you simply review that stats, Porter's figures across the board aren't as impressive as some others.

But there's still 8 games to go. And if Joey can end the season with 20+ sacks, it'll be hard for a voter to vote against him.

So keep grinding, J-Peezy!

Thoughts?

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Comments

It will be difficult..

for Joey as the main problem is that coming around the edge, he won’t see as no where near as many tackles or interceptions as others and as such he has to have really high numbers on the sacks and fumbles to get up there.
I hope he does, and once again I’m hoping that he has a career day against Favre and the Jets that just puts him top of the running, two for the price of one.

by DickDevil on Nov 5, 2008 3:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plus our second half of the schedule

Is alot more favorable the the 1st half.

by Wade on Nov 5, 2008 8:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think if he threatens the sack record

and continues forcing fumbles, he’ll get it. The Dolphins are already surprising many journalists, and Porter, along with Pennington, are being seen as the two catalysts for the turnaround, at least when it comes to the players. If we end up in the playoffs, or make a push to the last few weeks of the season, and Porter can get those 2 stats up, I can’t see how they vote against him..

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 5, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs