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Dolphins vs Patriots: 4 Keys to Victory

Rather than look at specific key matchups this week, I wanted to highlight what I feel will be the 4 keys to victory for the Dolphins this week when they host the Patriots in what is simply a huge game.

#1: Win the battle in the trenches

This game promises to be physical.  And in tough, physical games, it's the play of the offensive and defensive lines that is key.  Offensively, the Dolphins dominated up front when these two teams met back in week 3.  But a lot of that domination came when the Dolphins used the 'Wildcat' - which features an unbalanced line.  Odds are the Patriots will be ready for that particular look.  So while I'm sure the Dolphins have some new variations of the Wildcat prepared to use, this Miami offensive line is still going to have to be effective out of their base formations. 

This means that two critical matchups will be Samson Satele vs Vince Wilfork and Vernon Carey vs Ty Warren.  Last time, Satele really stood out to me and surprised me in how well he held up against Wilfork - with help from one of his two guards (usually RG Ike Ndukwe).  Carey also performed well, but has struggled in recent weeks.  On Sunday, Vernon is really going to have to be able to handle Warren one-on-one, both on running and passing plays.  I hope he's up for the challenge.

Defensively for the Dolphins, their big 3 up front need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as well.  Jason Ferguson, in particular, has really stood out over the past 2 weeks.  I think it's safe to say that he is fully healed from his previous sternum injury.  This week, he'll again need to dominate at the point of attack.

Here's an interesting stat.  Did you know that the Pats are averaging just as many yards per carry on the ground as the Dolphins (4.2)?  And did you realize that New England is currently 8th in the league in rushing offense, averaging 132.2 yards per game?  The Dolphins have to take away New England's ground game early on and force Matt Cassel to throw.  The Patriots are just 3-4 when Cassel has to throw over 30 passes but are 3-0 when Cassel throws under 30.

The Dolphins did a good job back in week 3 of shutting down the ground game of New England, holding LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris to 49 rushing yards on 15 carries.  And the Dolphins are allowing just 82.3 rushing yards per game during their current 4 game win streak.  It'll be important for the Fins to get another similar effort on Sunday.

Star-divide

#2: Contain Randy Moss

The Dolphins did a good job of limiting Moss's touches back in week 3.  But that was thanks to, in large part, the effective pass rush - led, of course, by Joey Porter.  But Moss, despite having a down year, is still very dangerous and, in my opinion, is still the most physically talented receiver in the game.  And the Pats are 3-0 this year when Moss goes over 100 yards receiving.  On the other hand, if you can hold Moss to under 30 yards, the Pats are 0-3.

The Dolphins have improved in recent weeks in defending the bigger receivers like Moss.  And what the Fins do is pretty simple.  When the Dolphins go into their nickel package, Jason Allen enters to join Will Allen and Andre Goodman as the corners on the field.  Will Allen then slides inside to cover the slot receiver.  Jason Allen goes over to left corner and Goodman plays right corner.  And there's generally been some kind of safety help over the to, shading to the opposing team's best receiver's side.  This is why you saw different guys covering Brandon Marshall during that game a few weeks back.

Ideally, I'd probably like to see Jason Allen - simply due to his size/speed combination, matched up on Moss the most.  But when the Dolphins are in their base defense, it'll be interesting to see if the Pats try to dictate which corner - Will Allen or Goodman - gets matched up on Moss.

Regardless, keeping Randy's touches to a minimum is critical for this Miami defense.

#3: Improved special teams play is a must

If things don't get better for the worst special teams coverage unit in the league, the Dolphins will eventually lose a game or two because of it.  And this week is a prime example.  The Dolphins have the last ranked kickoff coverage unit in the league, allowing 27.3 yards per return.  And they aren't much better on punt coverages.  Meanwhile, the Patriots are 4th in the league in kick returns and 8th in punt returns.  Ellis Hobbs, NE's primary kick returner, is 3rd in the league in yards per return (among returners with at least 20 returns), averaging over 28 yards per return.  Back in week 3, Hobbs had a 50 yard kickoff return and an 81 yard return that set up New England's only touchdown on the day.  He's very explosive and the Dolphins must not miss tackles and give Hobbs any return lanes.

Of course, on the other side, Ted Ginn might have some opportunities to make things happen (if his blockers can resist the urge to hold, of course).  The Patriots kick coverage unit isn't much better than Miami's, surrendering 24.7 yards per return - 6th most in the league.

So let's hope this is the week that poor coverage hurts the opponents and not the Dolphins.

#4: Win the turnover and time of possession battles

Generally, these two things go hand in hand.  The more turnovers you commit, the lower your time of possession is.

Winning the turnover battle was one thing the Dolphins were doing well with for most of the season.  But these last two games, the Dolphins were able to win despite losing the turnover battle.  That's not a common occurrence and isn't something the Dolphins should get used to.  The Dolphins lucked out that they happened to be playing two bad teams these past 2 weeks.  But against New England, the Dolphins simply cannot afford to give the Pats extra possessions - especially with good field position. 

They must hold on to the ball and win the time of possession battle.  It's no coincidence that the Fins are 6-0 this year when having the ball longer than their opponents but are 0-4 when they don't.  This means no turnovers and converting on 3rd downs.  Here's another interesting stat: the team with the higher third-down conversion rate has won 16 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams. 

Limiting turnovers and converting on 3rd down will be absolutely critical on Sunday.


Those are my 4 keys.  As always, thoughts below...

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all good points

I’d add #2(b) what can miami’s receivers (yup i’m talking T ginn, mostly) do against a mess of a secondary. NE’s secondary wasn’t exactly playing well in either coverage nor in run support before harrison went down, so If miami’s receivers can get off early that’ll lossen up the run support. which brings us to your point #1

I just think miami’s o-line might just have some match up edges against these guys and we can expect to see a continuation of the first game. Afterall, miami has done pretty good, even last year, of moving the ball on the patsies.

by W NY Fins Fan on Nov 21, 2008 12:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

hey doinkerboink...

why didnt you join our thursday night football thread

Blogs Banned From – 14
Warnings – 15
Comments – 144243522366876
Relevant Comments – 8
Frontpaged Fanposts – 1 (Yes...I got it)
Temper Tantrums – 8
Stalker Charges – 120
woohoo's – 87
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SLAP’s – 54
Well Said's– 1

"Everytime i walk by someone @ work and have to juke out of the way
i give a "wooop" and run where ever i’m heading and spike whatever i’m holding"
-C.L

by finsxfactor on Nov 21, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think as long as the D shows up

we’ll have a chance. The offense shouldn’t have a problem scoring, NE’s defense is slow, and their secondary is crap. If we create a couple turnovers and pound out a few long TD drives, it’s a done deal

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 1:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Randy Moss is one of those strange players

where you think – if he shows up with his A-game, it’s irrelevant who we have or what we do against him. I hate seeing such a talented guy on the Pats. Unlike Brady, he’s hard to truly hate. Here’s hoping he takes Sunday off, or Cassell sails balls over his head all day long. Maybe Ginn has a big day and we see a passing of the torch to a elite receiver. (Hey, we can dream, right?)

From our point of view we have to do basically what matty said – contain on special teams, run the ball and stop the run, and break at least one big play. The wildcat produced our big plays last time, I don’t think it will be effective again – this will be vanilla football compared to some of our earlier games. I think to say the offence won’t have any trouble scoring is a bit off, we haven’t scored so well in the last two games. Our offence is inconsistent – hopefully once again it delivers when it absolutely has to. This should be a very even game. I’m getting nervous already, dammit.

Football isn't a matter of life and death - it's far more important than that.

by Agumen on Nov 21, 2008 2:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't get nervous

get excited.. For the first time in a loooong time I have complete faith in my team to win this game. For the past few years its always been apprehension thinking about what could go wrong.. now all I can seem to think about is 38-13 and how it should happen again.

Remember, this is part 2 of New England passing the torch to us in the AFCE. The Jets are just getting in the way..

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

The Jets are like that red-headed step child….no one likes to talk about them but theyre just always there….

by Enhalo on Nov 21, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Another key.......

Sacks, alot of sacks. Get in this guys face, knock him down, MAKE HIS DAY HELL!!
that too, will help……..

"I'ld rather get kicked in the nuts then sit next to a Pats fan"
--ME

GRIFFIN

by Ohiofinfan4life on Nov 21, 2008 4:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

i think this is THE key

that is how we beat Brady, and we need to do the same to Cassel. Hit him and we win. period.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Nov 21, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pats Injury report

http://www.patspulpit.com/

The Patriots released their Thursday participation report, and notable was the addition of LB Tedy Bruschi (knee), who was limited in today’s practice.

The report:

Did Not Participate in Practice
LB Eric Alexander (hamstring)
RB LaMont Jordan (calf)
LB Adalius Thomas (forearm)
NT Vince Wilfork (not injury related)

Limited Participation in Practice
LB Tedy Bruschi (knee)
DE Richard Seymour (toe)

Full Participation in Practice
C Dan Koppen (elbow)
CB Mike Richardson (concussion)
S/WR Ray Ventrone (concussion)

CB Jonathan Wilhite, who missed Wednesday’s practice due to flu-like symptoms, is no longer on the participation report.

The Dolphins reported no injuries.

by Dolphriend on Nov 21, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I still don't quite get the Phins injury report

and maybe that’s the point. Are your guys really all that healthy, or is it a fear-factor thing — if they don’t practice they don’t play, period thing. And people complain that Belichick manipulates the injury report.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 21, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not manipulated

if they don’t practice they don’t play, and if they don’t play they get cut.
All the guys are really that healthy. The guys that end up with some minor dings don’t usually make the injury report because of the above. The exception would be something like what happened with Pennington last week, where he got a slight ding on Saturday, and the Fins had to add him as “probable” just in case.
There is no comparison between the Fins injury reports and the Belichick smoke and mirrors. Sparano is a straight shooter. You want to know what the Fins are going to do on Sunday? Listen to his interviews during the week. He pretty much tells you what they are going to try to get done in the game.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Nov 21, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Moss' success

I’ve maintained all year that Moss’ success is tied to where Cassel puts the ball. In his breadbasket and wily DBs can wrestle it out. One could argue that a receiver of Randy’s caliber should be able to fend off those DBs, but I always felt the Brady-Moss connection was successful because Brady put the ball beyond Moss. That is, where only he could catch it. He’s 6-4 and takes some time to get up to speed, but there’s nothing better than watching those long legs stride down the sideline with ball in hand. Well, at least for this Pats fan… ;-)

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Nov 21, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe we will run for 472 yards like GTech. lol

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

shutuuuuuuup

ass lol

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

who runs for 472 yards???

thats just uncalled for.

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

so maddening

Our D didn’t show up. Our idiot senior LB’s couldn’t stop the effing Dive play. Our useless upperclassmen in the secondary couldn’t tackle. And for the life of me, I could not understand why we stayed in a 4-3 ALL GAME LONG. All they do is run, play a 4-4, a 6-2 anything. Don’t just sit there like you’re helpless as they sprint endzone to endzone. And the offense, wow. If Patrick Nix is still the OC next season, I’m buying a FSU shirt in protest.

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i don't get how you can tackle a guy like Dwyer on the hip

and yeah Nix is the worst thing about this team. 4th & 1 and you pass? Don’t you have a FB that’s like 245lbs? Fuck you Patrick Nix, I hope your house is set on fire after all the batteries in the smoke detectors simultaneously die. You’re a stupid prick and when you talk I wish I was at a Celine Dion concert instead.

"check that...the 29th of Feb. this year.....why is that the record day for hits? Did Matty have the Kim Kardashian sex tape or something?"
-Treat
"yes he did. and Jersquall recut it to look like Marino was boning her."
-Treasure

by chrislucas on Nov 21, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wow..

ummm yea…

GTech isnt even good….they just do that misdirection shit…its a gimmick…a gadget…its not fair…oh wait…this is sounding familiar lol.

that offense is awesome..but takes balls. no qb wants to play in that offense cuz ur basically saying u dont want to be a nfl qb….

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well Ga Tech is pretty good

and we always have problems with them year in and year out. but we could’ve at least made it a shoot out if Nix wasn’t a shitty O.C.

"check that...the 29th of Feb. this year.....why is that the record day for hits? Did Matty have the Kim Kardashian sex tape or something?"
-Treat
"yes he did. and Jersquall recut it to look like Marino was boning her."
-Treasure

by chrislucas on Nov 21, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well.....

You kicked my teams ass so dont feel to bad

by Enhalo on Nov 21, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What? Charleston Southern?

that’s the only team we blew out this year

"check that...the 29th of Feb. this year.....why is that the record day for hits? Did Matty have the Kim Kardashian sex tape or something?"
-Treat
"yes he did. and Jersquall recut it to look like Marino was boning her."
-Treasure

by chrislucas on Nov 21, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

geeee whiz

Sterger really let herself go…………..

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Nov 21, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hahahaha

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not funny...never make fun of MY LIL JENNY SWEET NIPPLES

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

does she even know you...lol

Blogs Banned From – 14
Warnings – 15
Comments – 144243522366876
Relevant Comments – 8
Frontpaged Fanposts – 1 (Yes...I got it)
Temper Tantrums – 8
Stalker Charges – 120
woohoo's – 87
lol's – 173
SLAP’s – 54
Well Said's– 1

"Everytime i walk by someone @ work and have to juke out of the way
i give a "wooop" and run where ever i’m heading and spike whatever i’m holding"
-C.L

by finsxfactor on Nov 21, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that depends

does she “know of me?” yes…..but only because she has seen me running naked from her bushes a few times

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

Blogs Banned From – 14
Warnings – 15
Comments – 144243522366876
Relevant Comments – 8
Frontpaged Fanposts – 1 (Yes...I got it)
Temper Tantrums – 8
Stalker Charges – 120
woohoo's – 87
lol's – 173
SLAP’s – 54
Well Said's– 1

"Everytime i walk by someone @ work and have to juke out of the way
i give a "wooop" and run where ever i’m heading and spike whatever i’m holding"
-C.L

by finsxfactor on Nov 21, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

capitalized LOL

means so much more than a basic lol

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just thought of one for you

What do you call her “feminine area”?

The Sterger Burger

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Nov 21, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha

running naked from her bushes.. hilarious

RZ you got a gift bro lol

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

Blogs Banned From – 14
Warnings – 15
Comments – 144243522366876
Relevant Comments – 8
Frontpaged Fanposts – 1 (Yes...I got it)
Temper Tantrums – 8
Stalker Charges – 120
woohoo's – 87
lol's – 173
SLAP’s – 54
Well Said's– 1

"Everytime i walk by someone @ work and have to juke out of the way
i give a "wooop" and run where ever i’m heading and spike whatever i’m holding"
-C.L

by finsxfactor on Nov 21, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have seen the last few games of

the Pats and there running back with the three last names is a beast. I think he’s better than Maroney. He runs heavy and he’s always falling forward. I watched him wear a D down. If we stop him, I will never question our ability to stop the run again. The only time he gets shut down is when the Pats have to score points because they are behind so they throw all game. I can see them coming out and giving us a big dose of Welker and this running back. God I wish it was Sunday!!!!!

by jvw on Nov 21, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The biggest hurdle nobody mentions

Is the mental part of the game…

Too often teams play the Pats differently because of the championship mystique and the media-fueled superiority image the Pats have. Plus Belichick’s rep as a coaching genius.

Miami’s biggest edge in this game is that they beat the Pats soundly in NE, outcoached Bill, and have the same record going in.

If Miami starts to believe they can lose the game – they WILL lose it. They need to believe and not cave in to the Pats bullshit. 60 minutes of pure, unbridled, steely-eyed determination.

If Miami comes out fired up and stays hot throughout – we win. We can’t let the Pats get any momentum going. Period.

"That's never going to heal if you don't stop picking"

by mikem1224 on Nov 21, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

good points

Having already badly beaten the Pats up in NE has got to give this team confidence.

Of course, it also makes the Pats more motivated than ever for revenge.

by Matty I on Nov 21, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

go read Jersquall's post in the recommended post area

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Nov 21, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's pretty east

find a picture on google. Right click for properties and copy the url

then open up a comment, look for the tree, it’s right above the comment box, click that and post the url in it.

2 Time Movie Quote Game Winner

by DolfinPhan on Nov 21, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2 Time Movie Quote Game Winner

by DolfinPhan on Nov 21, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 22, 2008 9:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you can't use one from your p.c.

its explained in Jersqualls post buddy………go check it out

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Nov 21, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ugh

find pic….

right click pic…

go to properties and copy the url…

come here and paste the url in the image line

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 21, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no

wrong.

find pic. save pic to computer. upload to photobucket/imageshack. THEN right click pic. copy URL. click little tree icon. paste URL.

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 21, 2008 8:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nice job Nicky

or just refer to our Phinsider bro Jersqualls post. Pretty much says it all there.

"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08

by HuskerDolphin on Nov 21, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yup

I did the cliffs notes version lol

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 22, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

uhhh noooooooooooo

u dont have to save the pic…i dont. all you gotta do is right click it and copy n paste the url form properties into the image box in the post…sooooooooooooooooo rzayo is right!!

"This is one of the most competitive businesses there is . . . It's my life. It's my blood. It's how I'm measured."
---BILL PARCELLS

by Rzayo24 on Nov 22, 2008 9:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes you are

but Jersqually wally also said that it uses the other sites bandwith and that’s not right, so that’s why you save it to your own computer first. So I’m right, too.

Plus I’m a Canes fan, so I win lol

"I throw better than anybody in college and I can throw with anybody in the pros. There, that's what I think."
"I've been a Dolphin for 17 years, and I'll be a Dolphin for the rest of my life. That will never change."
- Dan Marino aka Quarterback God

by Little Nicky 21 on Nov 23, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

game over

Longest Sig In the History of Phinsider belongs to Me. 53 Lines in Total.

by finsxfactor on Nov 23, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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