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48 Hours Later: Some Random Thoughts

I'm sure that all of you, like me, are still flying high after Sunday's win over the Chargers.  And now that we've all had about 2 days to digest this victory, let's talk a little bit about some of the things that we haven't really touched on yet.

Oh, and no - I'm not trying to be a buzzkill.  I'm just trying to be a realist.

Don't use the "P" word just yet
I know excitement is high - higher than it has been in years.  But let's not go crazy here folks.  Let's continue to exercise "cautious optimism" when we talk about where this season might be headed.  It's fine for the players to talk about the playoffs - or even the Super Bowl, as Justin Smiley did.  After all, of all people, the players are the ones who should believe they can win every single game.

But as fans, I think we need to be careful with expectations.  Why?  Because expectations have a funny way of coming back to kick you in the ass.  And doing things like examining the schedule and attempting to predict what Miami's record might be after playing just 4 games isn't only an exercise in futility, but also is a good way to set yourself up for disappointment.

Let's instead just look ahead to the next game on the schedule each week and not overlook any opponent.  This upcoming week, for example, the Dolphins will travel to Houston to attempt to defeat a team that they have never, ever defeated.  The Dolphins are 0-3 all-time against the Texans.  Sure, the Texans are 0-4.  But they lost an OT game to the Jaguars and choked away a victory over the Colts last week where they were actually winning by 17 points with just 5 minutes left.

We also can't forget how much "luck" plays into these games.  Just this past week, we saw "luck" play a part in Miami's win.  Anyone remember when PHilip Rivers overthrew a wide open Vincent Jackson on what would have been a game-tying touchdown?  Those kinds of plays can happen at any time and can benefit or hurt the Dolphins - and can be the reason the Dolphins win or lose a game.

So rather than thinking about January football after just one quarter of the regular season, let's instead focus solely on the next game.  Then, after 8 games or so, let's see where the Dolphins stand.

Star-divide

Special Teams still in need of improving
We all thought that one of the things we could bank on this season would be improved special teams play.  But that clearly hasn't come to fruition.

Sure, the Dolphins held the electrifying Darren Sproles to just 23 yards per return.  But that average kick return against would only be good for 14th in the NFL.  And with Sunday's performance factored in, the Dolphins kick coverage unit is still ranked 32nd in the league - allowing 28.1 yards per return.  Not good.

The coverage unit also isn't helped by the fact that Dan Carpenter is averaging just 63.2 yards per kick-off.  Yes, that's 5 yards more than Jay Feely last season, but still ranks the Dolphins just 25th in kick-off distance.

The return game is just as unimpressive.  The Dolphins are averaging just 17.6 per kick return - good for 31st in the league.  And now we even saw Davone Bess put the ball on the ground last week for what could have resulted in a costly turnover if not for some great defensive play.

Statistically, the Dolphins are a little better at punt returning - ranking 20th in the NFL with an 8.9 yard average.  But even so, we all can see the problems that our punt returners have, at times muffing the catch, while misjudging some balls and letting them bounce when they shouldn't at other times.  Clearly, improvement is needed.

Of course, Tony Sparano realizes this, too.  But what can he do?

I think that one thing would be to let Ted Ginn return the kick-offs.  That would allow him to use his long speed and provide the Dolphins with game-breaking potential in the return game.  We all know he was explosive as a returner in college and he even returned one last season (with two more returns being called back).  So what's the worst that could happen with Teddy back there?  I think the change has to be made.

Quick Hits
-I've been very impressed with Matt Roth - especially this past Sunday.  But let's not go crazy here, folks.  He had a sack, 1.5 tackles for loss, and a few more QB pressures.  That's nice and all, but some people seem to think he's the second coming.  I need to see consistency before I completely hop on board the "Matt Roth bandwagon."

-Chad Pennington.  What more can I say?  I still feel like an idiot for ever arguing his signing.  He's exactly what this team needed.

-Renaldo Hill is getting overlooked.  Is it any coincidence that he's been the starting free safety for two weeks and, combined, the opposition has thrown for just 279 yards?  He's the leader and the communicator that this secondary needs back there as "QB of the secondary."

-I really hope that Chad Henne is absorbing every little nugget of knowledge that he possibly can from Chad Pennington.  If he is, this franchise will be in good hands for years.

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ted ginn

I 100% agree.. he needs to get more touches on special teams. However, I think Tony is being smart by not overusing him early in the season. Thats how guys get injured, and if we do have a shot a the “P” word then we’re ganna need him down the stretch. Look what Reggie did tonight, almost single handedly won that game for them. Almost had 3 punt return for TDs.

by YatilGinnJr on Oct 7, 2008 1:08 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cam is that you?

Party pooper. Why not talk about playoffs? Seen our schedule? Witness the pass 2 teams we beat? 14+ point lead at the half of both games?

Luck Smuck. We weren’t lucky Rivers overthrew Jackson. Rivers isn’t that good. If we’re talking lucky, SD was lucky we missed that FG or the rout was on.

Ya know what, us Fin Fans have been through hell ever since Shula was pushed out. JJ having a break-down, Whanny/Spielman, Saban, it was a free fall till we hit rock bottom with Cameron.

Fact: We are one TD pass at the end of a game (or stopping Brett’s pass on 4th and forever) from being 3-1.

Fact: Brady is out for the season and Trent Edwards was knocked out of the game with a concussion. This divison is up for grabs.

Fact: It looks like we got a very good, well coached football team. With a competent coaching staff and front office for a change.

Fact: We have a favorable schedule this year. AFC/NFC West.

Fact: We just steamed-rolled over the 2 teams that played for the AFC Championship last year.

Ya know what? I feel good about my team. For the 1st time in a long time I feel we might have a shot at making some noise. And learning from the past I’m not sure when/if this opportunity will come again. I’m gonna live it up.

Are you picking up what I'm putting down?

by Neo on Oct 7, 2008 3:58 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kill the mood....

..why don’t you!
It is better than talking about April’s first round pick in October.

Also, the winner of this division might only be 8-8 or 9-7. So that is somewhat realistic in my mind. Yes I know Buffalo is half way there. But they have not played a division game, and could lose all 6 without T. Edwards.

It will be interesting to see what happens with NE this weekend. If they lose and we win, this division turns into a dogfight….

by JGray on Oct 7, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

matty has random thouhgts too!!!

its not just me!!

im normal!!!

In Tuna We Trust

by Rzayo24 on Oct 7, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

great post

i dont think i have ever agreed with you more matty

In Tuna We Trust

by Rzayo24 on Oct 7, 2008 9:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think all that Matty is trying to say

Is that we are a young team and dont 4get that we are in rebuilding mode. Not too shabby for a rebuilding team. Imagine at this rate what we’ll be like 2 years from now with real WRs and our rookies have a couple of years under their belts.

by Wade on Oct 7, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its amazing how good this young defense has become

without ZT and JT. I definitley give mad props to Parcells and Co. for what they have done with this young defense in such a short amount of time?

by Wade on Oct 7, 2008 9:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this D may even be better.

I think we are about 1 Pro Bowl CB (and MAYBE an upgrade at safety) away from this being a top 5 defense… maybe even better.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 7, 2008 1:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AMEN!!

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Oct 7, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Neither of our victories had anything to do with luck.

As Neo pointed out one of our losses was “unlucky” but even if Rivers had hit that long TD pass we still would have won that game. After that one TD drive in the 2nd half our defense and OL dominated that game. I just can’t believe we didn’t score in the second half. That’s probably because we didn’t need to, if we had I confident we would have. You are right there can be a lot of luck and bad calls (as SD knows) that determine games and we need to keep our expectation in check but inplying in any way that Sunday’s game a lucking victory is WAY out of line!

And for me the game ball is C Penne, that guy stood and delivered under pressure. Threw the ball hard and obviously very accurately. The Offense was so balanced it simplied amazed me.

by ATS16 on Oct 7, 2008 9:57 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There were no LUCK on last sunday game...

SD have to put there tongue up to there ***sses and accept that this was there 1st TRUE LOST!!
We have pay our dues and now is time to collect or at least it looks like.
About the Texan? I know we have never won to them, but we have never been playing fundamental football. The 0-3 record END this sunday with a Victory of the Dolphins. I don’t feel sorry for the texan and they lossing games at the end( remember us last year), Matty I, if you want to gave them respect for there efford, good for you, but me, I SAY " SCREW THEM" and if what they get this year is a 1-15, so be it.

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Oct 7, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its been to damn long

I,m happy as a retard in a room full of bouncin balls.We are REBUILT,better,stronger,faster than what seems like FOREVER.I bowl on monday nights and for me to be able to brag on my PHINS is great,and after this Vee,nobody in the alley is saying LUCKY,i hear"you gotta give them credit"!!!

by dolfanator on Oct 7, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cautious Optimism is ok

but this team is for real. You don’t dominate two perennial Super Bowl contenders (no matter who was injured) without being pretty damn good. I agree we shouldn’t start making P-word reservations just yet, but every 2-2 team in the league is thinking playoffs, why can’t we? Nobody expected us to be 2-2. And with NE still getting used to Life After Brady, the division isn’t a going to be a runaway. Buffalo will come back to the pack eventually, especially if Edwards is out for any period of time. And the Jets are a Jeckyl and Hyde team (and they’re still the Jets, they’ll find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory).

Now, do I think we’ll be in the playoffs come January? It’s possible. At the quarter-pole of the season, the East is the only AFC Division with every team at 500 or better, so the AFCE may put 2 teams in if the trend continues. But the rest of our division plays the same easy-ish schedule we do (AFC/NFC West) We need to beat Denver, and Oakland, because those are the 2 teams left that I think will beat the other teams in our division. And we gotta beat the teams we’re clearly better than (STL, KC, SF). If we can split with our division, that puts us at 9 wins. If we beat BAL, look out. We are perfectly capable of winning 9, as long as the team continues to play the same tough, physical, mistake-free football we’ve seen the past two weeks.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Oct 7, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like the attitude here.

Neo, I like what you said, in particular.

Matty, I disagree with you about STs. I usually feel like you and I are mostly on the same page about most topics, but this is one case in which I feel like the stats you are using to back up your argument do not jive with the reality of the game play.
Why? Simply because STs are not putting us in a hole this year, they are not losing games for us. We had a few knucklehead plays in the first couple of games, like kickoffs out of bounds, or 20 yd punts, but for the last two games, the play has been solid. Forget the stats and remember the fiasco last year.
Last year, STs would always do the wrong thing at the wrong time and take away any chance to win… like allowing a big return right after we scored and were hoping to get the ball back one more time, or a flag during a good Miami return calling it back.. that kind of thing. It is not just about the numbers, it is about WHEN and HOW the plays occur, and dude, STs are not losing the games for us this year.

Now, do they need more work? Yes. Of course.

And I COMPLETELY agree about putting Ginn back there for KOs. I also thing they should put Ginn in practice at DB. Not because I think he should play that position, but because he needs to get over his apparent fear of contact.

As for the posters talking about luck not being a part of our wins, let me remind you about the PI call in the 4th quarter, when the Fins were trying to get out of their own endzone. 3rd and 9? From the Miami 2? Ring a bell? The ball was thrown way over Martin’s head. From every angle they showed on television, that ball was uncatchable. That could EASILY have been a “no-call”. Probably should have been. But instead of 4 and 9 from the Miami 2, the Fins got a new set of downs at their own 30, and proceeded to run almost 4 and a half minutes of the clock, finally giving the ball back to S.D. at their own 20.
So I ask you, do you think 4th and 2 from the Miami 2 could have turned the game around? I was personally thanking the football gods for that one, which is only something I do we we get a lucky break.
Be real folks. We are looking DAMN good, but we are thin at several positions, and an injury or a few bad calls can make things start to look very different, very quickly.
knowutimean?

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 7, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope (With all due respect LCFF)

That ball may have been slightly over thrown but with the outright raping commited on the play we’ll never no. THAT CALL WAS NOT “LUCKY”!!! If they hadn’t a made that call there’d been a riot. It was at the very least a holding penalty auto 1st down 5 yarder.
It was the right call and a call that we have not gotten over the last couple years.
Remember Ginn getting knocked down, before the ball arrived, in the End Zone last year against Baltimore? That game should have never gone to OT.

Bottomline is that we won that game, we deserved to win that game and some people (sadly enough) are so used to losing they want to event reasons why we won. We won the game because we outplayed SD on both sides of the ball, so while I understand staying grounded I think you should just let those of us who want celebrate it and dream about the rest of the season revel in it for at least one week. And stop inventing way we could have lost this one gezzzzzzzzzzzz, LOL!

by ATS16 on Oct 7, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess the point I was trying to get across on the "luck" thing is that luck ALWAYS plays some part

and for the past few years we have not been getting the breaks for whatever reason. You said it yourself, that we have not gotten that call over the last couple of years. And the ball was clearly uncatchable unless Martin is 7’13". So we got a break. And we have had a break with clean injury reports.
I’m definitely not saying the Fins didn’t deserve to win. I am saying that in years past, we would have found ourselves in the same situation with no PI call and 4th and 9 from our 2.
The key today is that the Fins are playing solid football, so we can effectively take advantage of a lucky break when it comes our way.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 1:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I had to check out that "blown call" a little closer after your comment

at the 14 minute mark of the 4th quarter. And if you view it from the end zone angle I have to agree with you, but CBS also shows the ball going over their head from the opposite side line right when Martin is being pulled down. Now the ball is clearly 4-5 feet over his head but he is no longer fully up right, his arm is not extended and since the defender is pulling him down he’s obviously not jumping. Now maybe Martin’s vertical leap wouldn’t of gotten him there but I don’t think you can definitively say the ball was uncatchable. It is a call we wouldn’t have never gotten in the past few years and with last year’s losing 6 games by 3 or less I see your point. I think what we witness Sunday is the cultural change that they have been preaching and from what I saw they would have found a way to win that game even if the refs had blown the PI call on Martin. And even if Rivers hadn’t overthrown Jackson, I still think Miami could have and would have scored at will if needed at the end of that game and we would have won despite those “breaks” not going our way.

by ATS16 on Oct 8, 2008 9:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exactly

That PI call was questionable, and we were lucky it went in our favor.
if Rivers hadnt overthrw Vincent Jackson we have a tie ball game.

Luck does have something to do with that win, but I’ll take it, this team has been unlucky for the past 7 years.

"How can I blame you
When it's me I can't forgive?"

-From the Unforgiven III off of Death Magnetic

by Patssuck456 on Oct 8, 2008 10:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Luck always plays a part

but good teams find a way to over come bad luck and take advantage of good luck. I think that is what we are beginning to see now in our beloved Fins. :)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

luck is a product of effort

teams that play hard and swarm to the football and bust ass on every single play from whistle to whistle have good luck. Teams that dog it, and assume runners are down or balls are overthrown, for example, have bad luck.

Case in point. Would you say a team that recovers the majority of fumbles that hit the ground are lucky? Or do they just have more people hustling and getting around the ball, increasing their chances at coming up with it. How about a team that always seems to intercept tipped passes. Are they just struck with luck, or in good position, alert, and willing to go balls-out to get to the ball in the air? A more pertinent example. The “lucky PI call.” Was it just blind luck that the ref threw the flag, or did they believe David Martin had a chance at catching it because of the catch he made earlier in the game, and the fact that he was running hard and had a bead on the ball? If he’d simply given up because it was overthrown, no penalty occurs.

So enough about luck, it’s just effort and hustle creating more opportunities.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Oct 8, 2008 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if.....

there was totally no luck……why is the ball shaped the way it is? How many times has there been a “lucky” bounce?

"When we win, we're humble!" Coach Sparano 10/5/2008

by HuskerDolphin on Oct 8, 2008 1:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But

how many times does a lucky bounce occur and nobody is there to capitalize? My point was just that teams don’t win or lose games because of luck. Sure there’s plenty of times in a game where the ball will bounce funny, or a tipped pass will fly right at a player, but doesn’t the lucky play still require somebody to be there and to make the play? A lucky bounce means nothing if there’s nobody there to jump on it. It would just be a regular bounce.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Oct 8, 2008 3:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wrongo friend.

it was not due to the effort of the team that San Diego lost to the Broncos because the ref blew a fumble dead.

It doesn’t happen too often, and certainly not very often at the spot in the game that it will unequivocally decide the outcome of the game.

Luck does, in fact, happen.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 3:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

luck or just a bad call

we see it differently that’s all. However, I don’t think the Broncos winning was lucky, because they still had to score and get the 2point conversion. Neither of those should’ve happened, but neither was a “lucky” completion either, just a well executed play.

Poor Ed. He hasn’t been the same since, he had a rough night monday.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Oct 8, 2008 3:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe its not luck.....

maybe its Fate……..Do you believe in fate Mallory?

"When we win, we're humble!" Coach Sparano 10/5/2008

by HuskerDolphin on Oct 8, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lol

nope. not really. I don’t know. ask me again later.

On this team, we are all united in a common goal: to keep my job.
-- Lou Holtz

by Little Nicky 21 on Oct 8, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe...

nobody can stop fate.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 6:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if the whistle hadn't blown the ball dead, the Bolts would have won the game.

at that point, an outside influence intervened and handed the ball back to Denver. Yes, Denver still had to execute….nevertheless, San Diego would have won in 99% of the alternate universes had they been allowed to recover that fumble which was rightfully their’s.
All of those circumstances lining up to prevent the Bolts from winning the game…. that’s bad luck.
:)

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 6:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The key word in your post was execute.

Yes Denver had to execute but that blown call did not give them the winning TD, SD’s failure to execute on defense allowed them to lose. And how did Denver end up on the 5 yard line, or what ever it was? Because just like the Miami game SD’s defense couldn’t stop them at the end of the game to seal the deal. Look at the end of the Fin SD game SD had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead and the couldn’t move the ball on our defense they failed to execute. SD also had nearly 6 minutes to take the ball away from Miami and ….. they couldn’t stop us. So despite the so called “breaks” or “lucky” calls you guys claim we got SD had a chance to win if they EXECUTED, bottom line they didn’t and we did. I’m not saying that BS calls and luck don’t play a part in some games, but last Sunday it clearly did NOT decide the game, Miami execution and SD’s lack there at the end of the game of decided the outcome.

by ATS16 on Oct 9, 2008 12:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Without all that other stuff....

i am just saying if that blown call had not occured in the SD/Denver game, it was over. SD recovers and wins. End of story.

Denver caught a very lucky break.

As for Miami/SD, I never said that call decided the game. I was just pointing out that had that call not occurred (and it VERY well could have been a no-call), it would have been a much different situation for the Fins. They most likely would have punted, MAYBE backed SD up to just past mid-field (probably best case), and left an extra 3.5 minutes on the clock.

I don’t really understand how you argue this… it seems pretty straight forward.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 9, 2008 2:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll definitely agrue that

since that play happen with 14 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Do you have the game on tape/DVR? The PI/catchable ball play was not on the final drive of the game. SD had far more then 31/2 minutes left after that Miami drive but they would have definately had better field position they ended up with if that call had not been made.

by ATS16 on Oct 9, 2008 9:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Anyway if you're talking about

just 31/2 minutes in general that would have been left if that good call had not been made then I would say that that would have only giving Miami enough time to score a TD since obviously SD wasn’t coming close to stopping them. So if the PI call had not been called SD would have lost 24-10 so it actually help them end the game closer, ironic huh?

by ATS16 on Oct 9, 2008 10:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"an extra 3.5 minutes"

And the game would have looked different. I didn’t say Miami still would not have won, but unless you have a hotline to Ms. Cleo, you don’t know.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 9, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope

we don’t know what would have happened with an extra 3.5 minutes. Miami probably woud have scored on their final drive since they were well within FG range when they took a knee. I guess I just don’t understand you and Matty bringing up the what ifs. Is it just to keep our fans grounded or what? After last season just enjoy it and let everyone else enjoy it. I mean it’s not like we didn’t earn the victory. We stop them when we needed to and we ran out the clock when given the opp. right? So why bring up all the ways SD could have had a chance at beating us? This is not one of those games decided by luck but rather execution especially down the stretch. Anyway time to let it go – thanks for the back and forth it was fun!

by ATS16 on Oct 9, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand most of your post Lefty..

but saying that SP is not blowing thing up is an understament. How can you say they are not doing stupid stuff went they(Bess) fumble the ball at the 25?, Thank good, opur D responded like pros, and took that game to themself, them the O make there stament. SP is the weak link(LOL) of this team. They have put us in tought situations and we have overcome them.

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(21 years and counting)

by Aleta on Oct 7, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

naaawww.....

it is nowhere near as bad as last year. No way.

-LCFF

by LeftCoastFinFan on Oct 8, 2008 1:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Focus!

We need to stay focus and the playoffs will take care of its self! We can make it if we keep this intensity up!!

"You are the people you hang out with"

by buckeyebill on Oct 7, 2008 6:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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