Dolphins have an opportunity against San Diego

by sancho8297 on Oct 3, 2008 12:35 PM EDT

Hello Phinsiders,

We're new to SBNation and are looking forward to joining the weekly football discussion. Quoting another poster it indeed has been a while since your team was in Miami. Here is our take on this week's matchup:

SD @ MIA

Our Line: Miami by 5

As if the addition of Bill Parcels wasn't enough to turn a team from consistent loser into a .500 club, the addition of a healthy Brown certainly pushes Miami across the threshold. Don't forget about how they won at New England. Their opponent San Diego, whom we warned would struggle at Oakland, indeed did have their hands full before pulling out a late 4th quarter victory. So even though San Diego may be heating up, they are still an upset candidate according to our stats. Miami is a much better club than Oakland, is underrated, and has underplayed their potential. We see a lot of that coming to fruition this Sunday for a team that is coming off of plenty of rest to play in front of a home crowd eager to cheer on their much improved team from last year.

ITN Rankings:

- Miami #12

- San Diego #11

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True to a point....

Miami does have a good chance to take one at home. To me, its key that we use the pass to set up the run. Yes, I typed that correctly. SD’s secondary stat-wise isn’t very good. We pass on first and second downs, put them back on their heels, and then run run run. I do have a concern with the week off though. I have never bought into more rest gets you results in the NFL. You leave a beer around for too long, it goes flat. I hope that doesn’t happen to Miami this weekend. I hope they have lots of fizz and really give the home crowd something to cheer about. I look for the D line to do some good things. Make them earn whatever they get and for God’s sake, don’t give up the big play.
What the heck are ITN rankings?

"Not the victory but the action; Not the goal but the game; In the deed the glory."

by HuskerDolphin on Oct 3, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Flat beer and ITN Rankings...

Hmmmm you make a good point with the beer. We’ll have to see how well the coaching staff manages their beer/team. We also think that Brown takes a lot of pressure off of Pennington, which should help open the passing game up as you mentioned.

ITN = Inside the Numbers
We created a dual ranking system intended to do one thing, predict which teams are most likely to keep winning future games. One ranking focuses on a team’s fundamentals (Win Grade) while the other focuses on a team’s strength of schedule (Real Points).

You can see this week’s full rankings for more info if you’re curious at http://www.itnsports.com/Pages/Samples/NFL-rankings-week-5.aspx

Inside the Numbers LLC

'Making sense of sports statistics'

by sancho8297 on Oct 3, 2008 3:22 PM EDT reply actions

thanks

I’ll check out your site. My point about the passing game was, we should use it to open up the run, as opposed the other way around. Take preasure off the running game by exploiting one of the few weaknesses they have. I think it’ll really pay the rewards from the risk in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. Stay away from turnovers……so far this year (knocking on anything made of wood) we have been pretty good in that dept. And having Pennington being a pretty smart QB who doesn’t usually make bad decisions helps.
Hey, since you’re a numbers person……Who was the last Dolphin before R. Brown that got “Offensive Player of The Week” accolades?

"Not the victory but the action; Not the goal but the game; In the deed the glory."

by HuskerDolphin on Oct 3, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Offensive Player of the Week

We’re pretty sure it was Mr. ‘I need the weed’ back in week 14 of 2002.

Inside the Numbers LLC

'Making sense of sports statistics'

by sancho8297 on Oct 3, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

yea.....but

That was at running back…..and I found that as well. Someone else thought it might have been Chambers when he posted 200 +- yards in that same time period. Get too diggin’ Sancho. lol

Thanks for the reply though.

"Not the victory but the action; Not the goal but the game; In the deed the glory."

by HuskerDolphin on Oct 3, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Trickery!

Chambers did win the honors in week 15 of 2005, when he had 238 yards receiving against the Bills. We don’t have any records of Dolphin quarterbacks winning the award since Marino won it in week 5 of 1999.

Inside the Numbers LLC

'Making sense of sports statistics'

by sancho8297 on Oct 3, 2008 5:08 PM EDT reply actions