BAL @ MIA - at a crossroads

Hello Phinsider,

If you read our post on last week's game, you know we certainly thought Miami had the game against Houston in hand, so watching them lose it in the final seconds was a blow to us as well. Still, our system sees quite a bit of strength in Miami, and will continue to do so unless the show that letting games get away from them is once again the norm. Here is our take on this week's matchup:

BAL @ MIA

Our line: Miami by 14

Win Grade (team fundamentals) is sending some pretty heavy warning signals that Miami got a little ahead of itself and is now overrated. Real Points (strength of schedule) doesn't agree with that, yet. Fortunately for Miami they are back at home and playing against a team that finds itself quite lost offensively. Baltimore has had success on the ground, but that is about it, and the failures of the passing game have forced a lot of field goal attempts when the team has needed touchdowns. Miami has shown that they know how to defend the run, which means that the secondary is going to be free to focus on Flacco and should have several opportunities to create turnovers for the Miami offense. Look for Miami to settle down defensively after a wild game last week against Houston, and for Pennington to continue managing the offense well and limiting any turnovers that would keep Baltimore in the game.

ITN rankings:

- Miami #20 - A painful loss that reminded us of a lot of the heartbreakers the team went through last year. They may have dropped a little in the rankings this week, but this team has solid enough fundamentals and should rebound nicely.

- Baltimore # 25 - They have the best defense in the NFL, and the running game has done its part. How much longer will it take for Flacco and the passing game to step it up?