Winless teams are dangerous to play, right?

Good morning Phinsider,

Apparently playing a winless team is more dangerous than we thought, as most analysts and Vegas have Houston as the favorite this Sunday. Sure, teams that have a goose egg in the win column can play with a desperation that somehow turns games in their favor, but we don't think this matchup with Houston is going down that route.

Houston along with Cincinnati, Detroit, St. Louis, and even though Kansas City has a win, are teams that have been deemed the 'losers of 2008.' Of those teams, Detroit and St. Louis have performed the worst, but to us they are now the most dangerous teams to play. Why? Because they have yet to play a good game, and until they do, we don't really know what they are capable of. This is still the NFL folks, and all the players on Detroit and St. Louis are professionals, and one of these days they are going to play like it. And it is likely whoever their opponent is won't be ready for it.

Houston, Cincinnati and Kansas City on the other hand have had games where they played some solid football for 50 plus minutes, only to see 10 or fewer minutes of dismal play kill their shot at a win. We have seen their good stuff and they still haven't managed a win (KC aside). Not only does this weigh heavily on those teams mentally, but it also works against them in that their opponents will not be taking them too lightly since they have 'almost won' several games.

Lost in all of this though, is the fact that Miami is clearly the better team. On to the game:

MIA @ HOU

Our line: Miami by 20

What will be fresh in most minds is how Houston was able to build a nice big 17 point lead against Indianapolis last week before dramatically losing the game. Two things contributed to Houston's lead: being able to run the ball effectively against the Indy defense, and stopping the Indy rush attack from doing the same. Houston is going to have a very difficult time doing either this week against Miami. The Miami defense allowed Tomlinson and Sproles just 60 yards last week, highlighted by a 4th quarter goal line stand. Offensively Miami has shined since Brown's return, with the team averaging 192 rush yards per game against their last two opponents. We think Miami will be able to move the football quite well and will be more effective around and inside the red zone than they were against San Diego, allowing them to control the clock and earn a win that puts them above .500 for the first time since December 2005.

ITN rankings:

- Miami #9

- Houston #30