Ted Ginn: Reason for Optimism

by Matty I on Jan 23, 2008 12:01 AM EST in News

I told you yesterday that we would look into Ted Ginn's rookie season (as a receiver, not a return man) more in the coming days. And here is that look. Without question, Ginn's selection was one of the most controversial picks in Dolphins draft history. Because of that, I feel that some people are being very unfair to him after his rookie year. So let's take a look at some stats and discuss Ginn's rookie year.

First, here are his numbers compared to those of the other 2 top rookie wide receivers from the '07 draft class:

Player	Rec	Yards	TDs	Catch %
Ted Ginn	34	420	2	49%
Calvin Johnson	48	756	4	50%
Dwayne Bowe	70	995	5	60%

So, yes, clearly Ted Ginn had the least impressive numbers out of these 3. But looking at his catch percentage in relation to Calvin Johnson's (who was supposed to be a sure thing coming out of college) is encouraging. And that's especially true when you consider that Johnson had a better QB, or at least a more reliable QB, throwing to him than Ginn ever did.

Regardless of those figures, though, it's hard to pass any judgment because of how long the maturing process is for receivers coming out of college. Now I remember before the season, I read an article in one of the local papers about Ginn's 2007 expectations. The writer said that he'd be satisfied if Ginn could match the production of O.J. McDuffie. And many people agreed with that. So below are Ginn's numbers compared with McDuffie's from his rookie year, as well as Mark Clayton (another great Fins WR):

Player	Rec	Yards	TDs
Ted Ginn	34	420	2
O.J. McDuffie	19	197	0
Mark Clayton	6	114	1

Alright. So Ginn passes that evaluation with flying colors. But of course, some will say that comparing Ginn to McDuffie, for example, isn't a fair assessment because Ginn was such a high draft pick. That's understandable. And to that, I say draft position shouldn't mean anything, especially when you consider some of the 1st rounds busts to have been drafted recently. Some include Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, Troy Williamson, Michael Clayton, and Ashlie Lelie. So rather than compare Ginn's rookie figures to other 1st round picks, I've compared them below with the top 10 players in receiving yards for 2007. Let's see how Teddy compares to the best receivers in the game after 1 season:

Player	Rec	Yards	TDs
Ted Ginn	34	420	2
Reggie Wayne	27	345	0
Randy Moss	69	1313	17
Chad Johnson	28	329	1
Larry Fitzgerald	58	780	8
Terrell Owens	35	520	4
Brandon Marshall	20	309	2
Braylon Edwards	32	512	3
Marques Colston	70	1038	8
Roddy White	29	446	3
Torry Holt	52	788	6

Of those 10, Ginn had a better rookie year than 4 of them. But the point here isn't to say that Ginn is going to be great because he has similar numbers to other great receivers. That would just be an ignorant statement for me to make. The point here is to show that it takes time to develop at wide receiver in this league. Very rarely does a Randy Moss or Marques Colston come along and have a huge impact in year one. And that's especially true in Ginn's case when you consider the supporting cast he had this year and the instability of catching balls from 3 different quarterbacks.

Just for fun, I've compared the stats for Ginn and 3 players who are very good and who have a similar style to Teddy:

Player	Rec	Yards	TDs
Ted Ginn	34	420	2
Steve Smith	10	154	0
Lee Evans	48	843	9
Santana Moss	30	433	4

Like Santana Moss, Ginn falls right in between the production of the other two guys. But I have to note that those figures for Moss are actually his 2nd season, as his first was cut short due to injury. So for Ginn to have similar numbers as Moss did after 2 seasons in an offense, that's a positive sign.

Now, again, the reason for this article was simply to show that there is still a reason for optimism. Some want to write off Ted Ginn already. And that's just not fair. He proved to be durable, taking some big shots from opposing players, and have very good hands (something people questioned coming out of college). Now the next step for Teddy is to continue to progress, learn this new offense, and develop into the #1 receiver we all hope he will become. One thing I promise you is that he will be working his tail off this offseason to get better. Now if he can just be used the right way by this new regime, we could see marked improvement in the production we see out of Teddy in 2008.

And I cannot wait!

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Comments

My point, exactly

I've been watching this kid since high school. Believe me, he has the heart, skills, desire & fire to be a great one. So many people never consider that he only played wide receiver TWO FUCKING YEARS, before coming into the NFL!

In high school, he majored as a D Back, quarterback, returner, whatever they wanted him to do, and came to Ohio Stae as a defensive back. Jim Tressel; (What kind of car does Jim tressel own? LOYD CARR!) was the one who looked at him & saw the potential to be a wide out.

This kid has intangeables, speed, and a heart bigger than Dolly Parton's bra! He has humility, class, dignity, and LOVES THE GAME.

I'll never say he'll be the next Jerry Rics, but he deserves a fair chance, with an adequate supporting cat to prove himself (JUST LIKE JOHN BECK).

Give him time & I think he'll be better than McDuffy, and be a big part of this team for years.

by davehowardcustom on Jan 23, 2008 12:15 AM EST 0 recs

I still like Ginn

I think is he gonna be a very good WR. I hope Ted does the most with the opportunities he gets next year, which I think will be few. Bill loves his RBs, and with our QB situation much in question I see a very big dose of Brown and Williams next year, just like he did with Barber and Jones in Dallas. Which is not a bad idea I think when your trying (hopefully) to protect and develope a young QB. Not to mention a 1-2 punch of the talent of Ronnie and Ricky (if he is the Ricky of old) is quite scary. If nothing else, with the opposing defenses looking to stop the run it could present more one on one opportunities for him.

PS We also got Chatman and Booker too, geez we are loaded back there.

>K?

by Neo on Jan 23, 2008 12:28 AM EST 0 recs

We're loaded at RB...

...as long as Ronnie comes back 100% and Ricky keeps his head on straight.

by Matty I on Jan 23, 2008 12:49 AM EST up 0 recs

Do not draft a RB

Yes we are loaded at running back which is why they won't waste a pick on McFadden at all.

Coaching staff is almost in place. All we need now are the players. Miami needs to have a really smart draft and pick up some players. I am definitely leaning to trading that #1 pick for as much as we can get so we can start filling the holes that Cam and Randy left us with.

by resman on Jan 23, 2008 7:57 AM EST up 0 recs

QB to compliment Ginn

What about trying to get Delohomme? I think he might be a good transition until Beck is ready to take over. I still would love to get Mcnabb for this team if it is truly possible. Can anyone tell me what draft picks we have in each round?

by dolfinosteel on Jan 23, 2008 8:08 AM EST 0 recs

i think ginn will be fine

any unfair expectations will always be there becuase he went at #9... not his fault, but that's where he was drafted, so he's got a little more to live up to than a guy going in the late second or third. but every thing i have heard or read about this kid's heart makes believe he will continue to improve. just gotta get somebody who can get him the ball. beck? someone else? we'll see.

The Jayfiss Report ...one fan's rants.

by NumberSeven on Jan 23, 2008 10:01 AM EST 0 recs

I Believe...

...Ginn will end up being a very good receiver in the long run, but not a great one. Though, I must admit that I was on the Brady Quinn bandwagon bigtime.

Let me first say that I think Randy Meuller is a quality GM. However, he tore this team down to rebuild it, which is why we were really BAD this year. That being said, lets rewind this whole mess a year, then look at what you would have going into next year:

QB - Beck
WR - Ginn, Hagan, Booker
TE - Martin

Or,

QB - Quinn
WR - Chambers, Welker, Booker, Hagan
TE - Randy McMichael

Now, I realize that we may not have Satele at C with this scenario, but we would still have Hadnot at instead.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'd rather have the 2nd scenario. I realize that hindsight is 20/20. Given what we know now, that Meuller was only going to be given 1 year to try and turn things around, it'd be nice to be able to take away his moves and get our players back. :)

by dab415217 on Jan 23, 2008 10:14 AM EST 0 recs

Quinn

Quinn couldn't play his way onto the field in Cleveland this season. It's impossible at this point to tell whether he or Beck will be the better QB, and history shows that highly regarded college QBs are bigger crapshoots than Internet stocks.

As for Ginn, WR is similar to QB -- it's a position which requires so many intangibles (route-running, field awareness, toughness) that it's hard for a GM to predict who's going to perform, and it's harder for the players to produce at all their first year in the league.

by seamusfurr on Jan 23, 2008 12:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Cam Cameron new Ravens OC

RAVENS ADD CAMERON
Posted by Michael David Smith on January 23,

A league source tells PFT that the Baltimore Ravens have added former Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron to their coaching staff.

Although official word on Cameron's title has not been released, it is assumed that he will be the Ravens' offensive coordinator. Cameron had a five-year stint as the Chargers' offensive coordinator before the Dolphins hired him a year ago.

Cameron is the first high-profile hiring of new Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, who previously had been reported to be close to hiring Eagles quarterbacks coach Pat Shurmur to be the Ravens' offensive coordinator.

Next up for Harbaugh is securing a defensive coordinator. The Ravens would like to keep Rex Ryan on the staff, but Ryan may decide to head elsewhere after being passed over for the top job.

~~ FINGUY23 ~~

by JDPhinFan on Jan 23, 2008 10:40 AM EST 0 recs

One other thing to keep in mind...

Calvin Johnson played in about as "pass happy" an offensive system that existed this year in the NFL, with few exceptions. (New England being one of them) I think Kitna ranked #5 in pass attempts on the season.

Yes, Johnson missed some games due to an injury - but lets also remember that Ginn did not really see playing time and actually start until mid-year as well.

In terms of the 2 scenarios posed above.. Lets look closer at #2:

Why Brady Quinn? What has he done to prove he is any better or worse than Cleo Lemon or John Beck? Because he was so successful in college playing against second rate teams? (Same could be argued of Beck) One exception between the two is Quinn disappeared against the biggest competition he faced - look at his numbers and watch the games, Beck continued to put up strong numbers regardless of the competition.
Lets get off the Welker kick. Yes, he had a great year and kudos to him. However, if you take Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, Tom Brady out of that offense do you REALLY think that Welker would have had 1/2 the season he had? BTW - what happens when you take those 3 out of the Pats system - you have an offense that would be about as productive as Miami's last season, arguably still better though...
Randy McMichael is a joke. Lets compare David Martin last year versus Randy McMichael:

McMichael - 39 Catches for 429 yds and 3 TD's.
Martin - 34 Catches for 303 yds and 2 TD's.

Not exactly numbers that blow your skirt up - and McMichael played in a FAR better offensive system than Martin did and has never been known as a power run blocker..

Not sure option 1 is better than option 2 at the end of the day, but it obviously wasn't working with option 2 when we had it, regardless of who the QB was.

In terms of Randy/CC - I think both would have still been here had they come out and essentially told folks "Look, this team sucks, we are too old, minimal playmakers on offense, etc. We need to rebuild and spend the next 2 seasons rebuilding this roster to bring in youth and speed on both sides of the ball. This means we will be in for a tough season or two while we do this and get these kids playing time. Hang in there and lets turn this around with a view to the future."

But they never did.

Definition of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...

by azphinner on Jan 23, 2008 10:51 AM EST 0 recs

The WR/TE as a Group...

The gist of my post wasn't Quinn versus Beck, but the receiving crew. Neither Quinn or Beck have proven they belong in the NFL as starting QB's. I like both of them. However, in my scenarios, the scenario without Ginn would obviously include Quinn, because he would have been the logical pick, according to most people. Unlike Cleo Lemon, Quinn has done nothing to prove he isn't a starting qulaity QB in the NFL. I happen to like both Beck and Quinn. My only reservation with Beck versus Quinn is the age difference. Beck has got to prove he is a starter and quickly, because of his age. Quinn has more of a buffer to grow for that same reason.

This season's stats withstanding, there is no comparison between Martin and McMichael. McMichael is clearly the better TE. Prior to this year he had three straight seasons over 60 catches, and was generally regarded as a top 10 TE in the league. Martin never provided any kind of threat over the middle this year.

Before I talk about Welker, let me say that the Dolphins basically had no choice but to trade him to NE. They either trade him or get a poison pill contract offer dropped on him. I'd make the same deal too. Where they made their mistake is not offering him the highest tender. He led the Dolphins the previous season with 67 receptions, with primarily Joey Harrington as the QB. He was obviously growing into a great slot receiver.

IMO, any QB would have had an easier time with the cast of receivers we had in '06 versus '07. That in no way is a putdown to Ginn.

by dab415217 on Jan 23, 2008 11:44 AM EST up 0 recs

Fair enough...

I guess my thoughts here are: Getting Beck & Ginn instead of just Quinn is probably better for us long-term. (Especially if Quinn does not materialize into anything special)

In terms of McMichael - I hear you on the stats over the past couple of years, but his play in general was declining. He was dropping passes that there is no way he should have dropped, etc. He was never a strong pass blocking TE, catching passes was more his strength and even then, he dropped a lot of balls he shouldn't have dropped over the past 2 years or so.

Agree about Welker - I hated to see him go and feel like we had no choice but to do what we did. My point was more people point to that as a "screw-up" on the phins side because of the great year he had, etc.

Definition of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...

by azphinner on Jan 23, 2008 2:39 PM EST up 0 recs

The Pats

BTW - what happens when you take those 3 out of the Pats system?

You get the 2006 Pats, with Reche Caldwell and Jabbar Gaffney the featured receivers. They ranked 12th in the NFL in passing yards and rode their defense to a 12-4 record. This is why their management invested in some targets for Brady.

by seamusfurr on Jan 23, 2008 12:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Remove the 3 players, not just the 2..

You don't even get the 12th ranked offense then.

Definition of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...

by azphinner on Jan 23, 2008 2:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Lets not forget...

That Martin does not cost as much as Randy Mcmike

by sportssaga on Jan 23, 2008 1:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Won't the

Beck-Quinn talk ever die? I mean we are talking about players in their respective first years. A bit early I think to be making any type of judgment? Let's revisit the conversation 2 seasons from now.

Just as it is too early to say about Ted Ginn. You can't write him off as a bust or conversely, say he is going to be a star. Time will tell and this coming season I think should reveal quite a bit.

You have receivers who become excellent after a few seasons (Terrell Owens for instance), some are never any good (Mike Williams), while others amazingly enough, peak their first year and never really regain that form (Michael Clayton is a good example: 1100+ yards in his rookie year, not even as much as 400 yards in any season since!).

Like him or not, Ted Ginn is on the team and the dolphins made an investment on him. He is obviously part of the future here so I'll be optimistic about his development.

by Natalya on Jan 23, 2008 11:08 AM EST 0 recs

"Won't the Beck-Quinntalk ever die?"

Probably not. :)

How long do you think they were making the comparisons in NE and NY when the Pats and Jets could have had Dan Marino instead of Tony Eason or Ken O'Brien?

Seriously, until either one of them proves to be a topflight QB in the league, or until Ginn turns into a Pro Bowl WR.

Either way, its water under the bridge, but this is the type of talk that makes its so much fun. ;)

by dab415217 on Jan 23, 2008 11:51 AM EST up 0 recs

My complaint hasn't been against Ginn

it's been against Cam/randy for taking him #9.

Ginn's may someday develop into a decent receiver however he isn't one now.

The complaint is that in taking Ginn they pass on 2 guys who are pretty darn good.

the next two picks were Okoye who looks like he will be a probowler soon. and willis who already is a probowler and is one of the top LB in the league. And both played positions that the phins have some serious issues with.

So the ginn pick is a perfect example of why Cam/randy are gone, and it's not the type of mistake I expect parcells/ireland to make.

by W NY Fins Fan on Jan 23, 2008 6:51 PM EST 0 recs

Complaining about the past...

is about like...well sitting in your armchair (it's always comfy and is ready for action over and over)...

However you look (GM goggles-wise) at it, our offense got faster and younger last season. Now, in my opinion, it is the defense's turn to get balanced upgrade with the offensive line thru FA,trade, and draft. Mix in some good leadership too.

Oh yeah...please don't drop the 'offensive' offensive stats from last year on me to make a case yet again that our recent history of decision-making hasn't felt 'acid refluxy'.

Looking ahead.

Peace

by OntheGo on Jan 23, 2008 8:20 PM EST 0 recs