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Derek Anderson: Not the Answer for the Dolphins

Earlier today, a diary was made about the PFT rumor that said the Dolphins could very well be interested in Browns QB Derek Anderson once this offseason rolls around. Now, PFT mentions a Cleveland radio host as the source of this rumor. But this wasn't the only place I've heard this rumor. I can't remember if it was ESPNews or NFL Network but I was recently watching a show that also talked about how the Dolphins might make a play on Anderson in the offseason.

So what would it take to pry Anderson out of Cleveland? Since he's a restricted free agent, it will depend on how the Browns decide to handle the situation. In all likelihood, the Browns will at least make the highest tender offer, meaning any team who signs Anderson away from Cleveland will have to surrender their 1st and 3rd round pick. For the Dolphins, this is a ridiculously high price considering they have the #1 overall pick in April's draft.

Is Derek Anderson even worth it? This is something I wanted to decide. And first thing first, the only game I watched from start to finish with Anderson starting (besides the Dolphins/Browns game) was this past week's Browns/Bengals game. And Anderson did not look good at all, making some terrible decisions. The one thing I noticed was that Anderson stuggled mightily when under pressure. So with that in mind, I decided to look at his stats when under pressure (as defined by SI.com). I've compared his numbers to that of Miami's two current QBs, Cleo Lemon and John Beck.

Under Pressure
Player Com/Att Pct Yds TD-Int Rating
Derek Anderson 19/59 32% 293 2-6 21.3
Cleo Lemon 16/41 39% 130 0-3 17.3
John Beck 5/17 29% 24 0-1 15.1

Hmmm...Anderson's numbers don't even make me confident enough to say he's even that much better than Cleo and John. Sure, you could look at his overall season and totals and call me crazy. After all, 3,600 yards and 28 touchdowns are nothing to sneeze at, that's for sure. But you need to consider the facts here. Anderson has two great talents in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to throw to and he's got a solid running game to keep the defense honest. Oh, and his offensive line has played very, very well all season long (which is why he has only 18 more pass attempts under pressure despite having 219 more total pass attempts). Maybe that could be why Anderson has put up the numbers that he has.

Still think Anderson is worth giving up the #1 overall pick? That's fine. Your entitled to your opinion. But here's one other statistical analysis to look at. Let's look at the percentage of inaccurate passes for each of the three quarterbacks:

*percentage based off of total pass attempts*
Anderson Lemon Beck
Batted down at line 1.4% 2.8% 1.2%
Overthrown 7.3% 6% 4.7%
Underthrown 4.3% 3.5% 2.3%
Thrown wide 7.9% 9% 11.6%
Interceptions 3.5% 2.1% 3.5%
Bad pass percentage 24.5% 23.1% 23.3%

So what did we learn? Well, first of all, we learned that if Beck could just stop throwing so many passes wide of the receiver, he could have a much better completion percentage. Now getting back to the topic, I think this here shows all I need to know about Derek Anderson. If we think Cleo Lemon has been bad as QB, Anderson has actually been more inaccurate than Cleo has. Is that the kind of QB we want under center? And is Anderson worth anything close to the #1 overall pick? Not a chance in hell. If anything, I learned from this statistical look at things that John Beck isn't as far away from being a productive NFL QB than many thought. With an improved offensive line and a playmaker or two on offense, John could potentially be a productive NFL QB sooner rather than later.

But most importantly, Derek Anderson is not the solution to the Miami Dolphins' quarterback problem. If anything, bringing Anderson to Miami in the offseason would simply be a perfect example of how the Dolphins got into this mess to begin with. And despite his impressive track record, it would really make me question the logic of Bill Parcells and his ability to turn this team around.

Thoughts?

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments

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Thanks Matty
I was wondering what the breakdown was, but I had no idea how to figure it out. I wasn't keen on the Anderson plan, but that definitely helped to solidify it. I still think our best course of action is to keep Beck, bring in a serviceable veteran (McCown?), and draft a late rd QB

by bassman on Dec 27, 2007 12:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anderson
is a better QB than both cleo and beck but i wouldnt give up a 1 and 3 for him. Clev would be crazy not to sign this kid long term. Now brady Quinn might be had for a number one but not the first pick in the draft. I think we stay with the two young guys and bring in a Vet who starts the the season and the one who develops fastest stays the other gets traded. Unless they both suck. then go the free agent way before 09 season.

by jvw on Dec 27, 2007 3:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

great analysis
wow... great work bro

I also dont want DA and i think trading for a yet another yet is just stupid. Either stick with beck or draft another guy like Ryan or Brennan.

by YatilGinnJr on Dec 27, 2007 3:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anderson who?
Not trading picks for a QB AGAIN!!!
This, couldn't be a rumor, cause is plain dumb, only to think about it.
Bassman just said it "keep Beck, bring in a serviceable veteran (McCown?), and draft a late rd QB", that is logic at his best.

Ps. Sorry Logic, but the Lemon without juice, have to go.

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(20 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 8:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't like DA too
Drop Lemon, get Pennington to compete with (push) Beck.

by Neo on Dec 27, 2007 9:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Are you joking?
I wouldnt want Pennington anywhere near this team

by Patssuck456 on Dec 27, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great analysis!
We don't need to waste our time and picks by guessing on another quarterback.  Its always a crap shoot and unless you have the staff and assertiveness to convert a young quarterback into your system, it will likely flop.  Since Dan, we haven't done squat at QB developement.
This being said:  name him your starter next year.  Trade for a proven back up or aged veteran for the second slot and late round draft for the third slot.  Culpepper and Green were both pulled in to start and look what happened.  Don't go there again.
The way I see it with Parcells, his draft picks have gotten alot of praise.  Was it because he picked great talent or was it because he knows how to develop kids into great players.  He is a master at picking players he can develop and unless he sees one (QB) in the draft, he will stick with Beck.  This is what I am excited to see.  We haven't seen any "fire" from any of the QB's this year, but that is soon to change.  

by Thruthickandt on Dec 27, 2007 11:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Can we trade for Cleveland's O-line and receivers?
Again the issue comes down to play-makers. Derek Anderson has a monster offensive line, a solid RB and two outstanding receivers in Winslow and Edwards. Give Beck those things, and watch him blossom.

I think Parcells is smart enough not to throw away the #1 pick on a guy like Anderson (This is all speculation anyway.... which is why PFT can be a bit out there sometimes and their rumors should always be taken with a grain of salt).

Anyway, get Beck the same supporting cast Anderson has. THAT'S  the answer.

by The Dude on Dec 27, 2007 12:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And..
If you don't see fire in Beck's eyes next year, sure you will see fire poping out of his AS***, while driving out of Miami. With BP, thing are easy, you perform or you don't, NO EXCUSES!!

Ps, even Wanny could get fired from hownership ; )

I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(20 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 12:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

just tired
While anderson may be a good QB with a good O-line, miami without improvements is certainly not that team. However, that is most likely what clevelanders were saying before drafting one JT #3. (bet detroit would like redraft again)

So after what seems like decades of picking since one R webb was taken, Miami has the opportunity to draft a LT with probowl potential in this draft... finally!!!! And just like cleveland found out, you may actually have the QB of the future ON YOUR ROSTER if you find the talent needed to protect him.

So, while not opposed to trading a first rounder for a actual NFL QB, I am opposed if it is lieu of drafting a stud LT.  

by W NY Fins Fan on Dec 27, 2007 3:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Numbers
tell you something I think. But if they start from scratch at any of the position groups, O-line, D-line, D-backs, etc., I think it will be extremely difficult for them to improve, and they will continue to suck for a longer time.
If a solid core is there and kept from their last couple of drafts, then the suffering won't be so bad. From what I see and hear, Jason Allen, Rod Wright, Matt Roth from 2006, and Ginn Jr, Beck, Satele, and Booker, Ronnie Brown, Derek Hagan, display NFL talent. They just need to be more consistent. Also, the rookie punter will improve as well. He sure needs to.
What this team needs is to develop good depth. That's what sets good/great teams apart. They have tremendous depth. Miami flubbed on their draft picks until 2005. That's why Miami's Special Team plays are - well - not so special.
I don't think it's wise to judge whether or not Beck is bad. He actually directed some nice drives and held his own amidst horrid pressure. Seeing what he played with, it's really hard to tell. But he "lives and breathes football," which tells me he's a Parcells guy. You didn't hear pro scouts screaming bloody murder for the Dolphins drafting him instead of Quinn - just "media types." The Dolphins' QB coach is the person who trained Quinn for the draft. What does that say? It tells me that the jury found him "not so good." I agree, some of those games Beck looked bad, but judging a rookie QB with no developed playmakers on a bad overall team isn't fair.
I believe it would be a grave mistake for Parcells and the Dolphins to go after a Knucklehead like Anderson for a QB. He's just as unproven. No, I'd rather do what Parcells is thinking - keep the good or best, then build around them, filling in the holes.

I'm just waiting to exhale on what Parcells is gonna do........ starting next week.

by Alpha6 on Dec 27, 2007 4:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

H'ow come no one is talking about.......
McNabb. He would be a great pickup. F the whole only-a-weat-coast-QB. Coach to fit the players talent. He has been a top 5 QB for the last 4-5 years. Yeah, he has bad games, but so do Manning and Brady. And McNabb may possibly be had for our first 2nd rounder (pick 32 - practically a 1st rounder).

by clownfish on Dec 27, 2007 4:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here we go again..
People are into the bringing used QBs, that WERE good. McNabb have been in IRL more time than on the field. He is old as DC and TG, there prime is in the past. More picks for this QBs? Get it into your heats guys, Beck or the draf again. No more bandaids to the qb situation.
I will see the Dolphins win a SUPER BOWL before i die(20 years and counting)

by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How is McNabb old or a temporary fix?
He is 31 and has 9 years experience, 8 as a starter. Sounds about perfect to me. Hell, he got drafted 1 year after Manning. Is Manning old? He is also more mobile than any potential replacement QB, so the oline protection won't matter as much, and he can throw well when on the run. He's had 2 major injuries, but so has Ronnie Brown and he is only in his 3rd year. This year he has had like 2-3 bad games. The rest were good to very good. When was the last time we saw very good QB play in Miami? Too long. And I'm not saying Beck isn't the answer, but I just don't see him developing next year. Give him another year as 2nd string (ie Rivers) behind McNabb, then have a battle in 09. Beck also looks kinda frail out there. I don't know, there is just something about him that worries me. I don't want all our eggs in one basket, like years past.

by clownfish on Dec 27, 2007 10:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not Feelin' the Love
I have to say I'm a bit surprised by the total negativity on Anderson.  

For one thing, some people seem to have him confused with the last couple of QBs we've picked up in FA.  Unlike Culpepper and Green, Derek Anderson is not past his prime and is not trying to make an iffy recovery from potentially career-ending injuries.  He's 24 yrs. old, people.  

For another thing, I don't get the strong preference for another drafted QB over trading for Anderson.  A brand new draftee is a complete unknown as an NFL QB.  Anderson has already been a starting NFL QB for a year, and has demonstrated he can lead a team, keep his head, win, etc.  To me, using a draft pick on Anderson at this stage in his career is a much better bet than using one on a complete unknown.

Now let's compare Anderson to John Beck, the guy we're currently counting on becoming our franchise QB of the future.  For starters, Anderson is 2 yrs. younger than Beck.  That's 2 more years to learn and grow.  Add the year that Anderson's already played while Cameron had Beck on the bench, and it's really 3 more years to learn and grow into the job.  Plus, Anderson has demonstrated on-field ability that Beck has not.  Clearly, that's largely not Beck's fault, but just comparing the 2 of them as prospective franchise QBs, it doesn't matter whose fault it is; the relevant fact is that Anderson has demonstrated more ability and more promise than Beck has.  Anderson also has better size -- he's 6'6".  That seems likely to come in handy from time to time while we rebuild our O-line.

Let me be clear: I'm not saying Derek Anderson is guaranteed to be a franchise QB and the Dolphins should go after him as hard as they can.  I'm just saying the level of negativity about him here strikes me as irrational.  Anderson simply is not a has-been like Green and Culpepper, or a career back-up like Lemon and Feeley and Fiedler and Lucas, or a complete NFL unknown like any QB in next year's draft class.  He's younger than any QB on our roster, bigger than any QB on our roster, has more experience than anybody on our roster, and has more proven ability than anybody on our roster and infinitely more than anybody in the upcoming draft, any or all of whom may be complete busts in the NFL.

Compared to any of those options, Anderson, at 24, strikes me as the clearly superior choice.  As that more experienced guy who comes in and pushes Beck, he strikes me as a better choice than most of what's available.  As that younger guy who we bring to and try to develop into a franchise QB in case Beck busts, he strikes me as the best option available.

All that said, I still think the Browns (and probably other teams) will overvalue him this off-season, so he really isn't a realistic option.

by urbino on Dec 27, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I guess I can only speak for myself...
but my negativity is in trading for him at the price their going to ask. There's no way they'll tender him less than a 1 and 3, and really, its unreasonable for us to give that up for ANY qb presently in the league because the rest of our team is so threadbare.

by bassman on Dec 27, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure
I was negative on Anderson. I thought the point I was trying to make is that without a better o-line few QB's will do well in Miami, and that Miami's long term interests would be better served using their first round pick to get a great LT. once the O-line issues are solve, the QB issue may resolve itself just like in cleveland.

Anderson was a whole lot better this year, then last, and much of that has to do with the protection the o-line has given him.

by W NY Fins Fan on Dec 27, 2007 9:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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